Summary of China Yangtze Power Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Yangtze Power Co. (CYPC) - **Industry**: Utilities, specifically hydropower generation - **Market Cap**: Rmb687,312 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb34.79, representing a 24% upside from the current price of Rmb28.09 as of August 29, 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb13.06 billion, up 14.9% year-over-year (yoy), exceeding preliminary results by 0.6% [2][6] - **1H25 Revenue**: Rmb36.7 billion, up 5.3% yoy, slightly above preliminary results by 0.3% [2][6] - **Power Generation**: Increased by 5.0% yoy, aligning with revenue growth, indicating stable average power tariffs [2] - **Finance Costs**: Decreased by 14.0% yoy to Rmb4.9 billion in 1H25, contributing to profit growth [2][6] - **Investment Income**: Rmb2.6 billion, down 10.5% yoy [2] - **Capital Expenditures (Capex)**: Rose significantly by 74.3% yoy to Rmb6.2 billion in 1H25 [2] Quarterly Performance - **2Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb7.9 billion, up 6.4% yoy [3] - **2Q25 Revenue**: Rmb19.7 billion, up 2.6% yoy [3] - **Finance Costs in 2Q25**: Fell by 14.9% yoy to Rmb2.38 billion [3] Operational Insights - **Power Generation in 2Q25**: Totaled 69 billion kWh, with Three Gorges' generation down 12.4% and hydro resources down 18.5% yoy [6] - **Hydropower Generation Growth**: 1.6% yoy increase noted in 2Q25 [6] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on discounted cash flow (DCF) with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 6.7% and no terminal growth assumption [7] - **Upside Risks**: Include better-than-expected hydropower resources, dividend payout ratios, utilization hours, and renewable energy capacity expansion [8] - **Downside Risks**: Include weaker hydropower resources, lower dividend payout ratios, and lower renewable energy capacity expansion [9] Future Projections - **EPS Estimates**: Expected to grow from Rmb1.33 in FY24 to Rmb1.66 in FY27 [4] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected to increase from Rmb84.49 billion in FY24 to Rmb94.40 billion in FY27 [4] - **EBITDA Growth**: Expected to rise from Rmb64.18 billion in FY24 to Rmb72.56 billion in FY27 [4] Conclusion - CYPC demonstrates robust earnings growth driven by increased power generation and reduced finance costs, with a positive outlook supported by strategic capital investments and stable revenue growth. The company is well-positioned within the utilities sector, particularly in hydropower, with a favorable risk-reward profile for investors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.698 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.056 billion yuan, up 14.86% year-on-year, which is in line with expectations [7] - The controlling shareholder, China Three Gorges Corporation, plans to increase its stake in the company through the secondary market within the next 12 months, with an investment amount between 4 billion and 8 billion yuan, indicating confidence in the company's long-term development [7] - The company has a strong dividend policy, having committed to a cash dividend of no less than 0.65 yuan per share from 2016 to 2020, and maintaining a payout ratio of no less than 70% of net profit from 2021 to 2025, with dividends consistently exceeding these commitments [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 89.766 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 35.561 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 9.4% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.45 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 60.1% [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 16.0% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 14.86% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, with a commitment to maintain a high dividend payout ratio over the next five years [2][3] - The company achieved a total revenue of 366.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.34% [3] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% of the annual net profit until 2030, demonstrating confidence in long-term development [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the total revenue is projected to be 84,492 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 32,496 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.3% [3] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 59.1% in 2024, with a slight increase to 59.5% by 2027 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 15.5% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 14.8% by 2027 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 1.33 yuan in 2024 to 1.47 yuan in 2027 [3] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 239.91 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 4.21% year-on-year [3] - Financial expenses were significantly reduced to 48.63 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 13.98% compared to the previous year [3] - The company ended the first half of 2025 with a cash and cash equivalents balance of 93.75 billion yuan, an increase of 65.2 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45% on September 2, with six industries experiencing gains, led by the banking and public utilities sectors, which rose by 1.95% and 0.99% respectively [2] - The total net outflow of capital from the two markets was 151.27 billion yuan, with four industries seeing net inflows, primarily in the banking sector, which had a net inflow of 3.42 billion yuan [2] Public Utilities Sector - The public utilities sector increased by 0.99%, with a total net inflow of 936 million yuan, comprising 131 stocks, of which 58 rose and 67 fell [3] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the public utilities sector were Changjiang Electric Power (net inflow of 625 million yuan), Luxiao Technology (net inflow of 481 million yuan), and Jingyun Tong (net inflow of 224 million yuan) [3] - The sector also had six stocks with net outflows exceeding 50 million yuan, led by Hengtong Optic-Electric, Guodian Power, and Inner Mongolia Huadian, with net outflows of 163 million yuan, 83.1 million yuan, and 82.7 million yuan respectively [3] Capital Inflow and Outflow Rankings - The top stocks in the public utilities sector by capital inflow included: - Changjiang Electric Power: +1.51%, turnover rate 0.73%, net inflow 625 million yuan - Luxiao Technology: +5.22%, turnover rate 17.78%, net inflow 481 million yuan - Jingyun Tong: +10.13%, turnover rate 5.90%, net inflow 224 million yuan [4] - The top stocks by capital outflow included: - Hengtong Optic-Electric: -3.13%, turnover rate 7.40%, net outflow 162.57 million yuan - Guodian Power: +0.41%, turnover rate 1.11%, net outflow 83.1 million yuan - Inner Mongolia Huadian: +0.50%, turnover rate 1.10%, net outflow 82.7 million yuan [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Expected High Dividend Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to construct a portfolio with high expected dividend yield by leveraging historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term factors like reversal and profitability[5][10][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Dividend Yield Calculation**: - Phase 1: Calculate dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution announcements - Phase 2: Predict and calculate dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators[5][10] 2. **Screening Process**: - Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents[15] - Remove the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative return)[15] - Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit YoY growth < 0)[15] 3. **Final Selection**: - Rank the remaining stocks by expected dividend yield - Select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield and construct an equally weighted portfolio[11] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong historical performance with significant excess returns and controlled drawdowns, making it a robust strategy for high-dividend stock selection[13] Model Backtesting Results - **Expected High Dividend Portfolio**: - Cumulative Return: 358.90% - Cumulative Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Total Return Index): 107.44% - Annualized Excess Return: 8.87% - Maximum Rolling 1-Year Drawdown of Excess Return: 12.26% - Monthly Excess Win Rate: 60.19%[13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict future dividend yield by combining historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term influencing factors[5][16] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate historical dividend yield based on profit distribution announcements[5][10] 2. Predict future dividend yield using fundamental indicators and historical dividend patterns[5][10] 3. Incorporate two short-term factors: - **Reversal Factor**: Accounts for short-term price reversals - **Profitability Factor**: Reflects the company's earnings performance[5][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies high-dividend stocks and serves as a reliable input for portfolio construction[16] - **Factor Name**: Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines multiple single-factor signals to assess the market's outlook on dividend stocks[25][28] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate five single-factor signals: - **Inflation**: PPI YoY (High/Low) - **Liquidity**: M2 YoY (High/Low) - **M1-M2 Gap**: Scissors Difference (High/Low) - **Interest Rate**: US 10-Year Treasury Yield (High/Low) - **Market Sentiment**: Dividend Stock Turnover Ratio (Up/Down)[28] 2. Assign binary signals (1 for bullish, 0 for bearish) to each factor 3. Aggregate the signals into a composite indicator[28] **Factor Evaluation**: The framework provides a systematic approach to timing dividend stock investments, though the September 2025 signal suggests a cautious stance[25][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Dividend Yield Factor**: - August 2025 Portfolio Average Return: 5.69% - Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Index): -4.80% - Excess Return (vs CSI Dividend Index): +4.70%[5][16] - **Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal)**: - Latest Signal (September 2025): 0 (Neutral)[25][28]

Market Overview - The electricity sector increased by 1.16% on the previous trading day, with Jingyuntong leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] Top Gainers in the Electricity Sector - Jingyuntong (601908) closed at 4.24, up 10.13% with a trading volume of 1.4255 million shares and a turnover of 595 million yuan [1] - Huami Environmental (600475) closed at 23.86, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 207,600 shares [1] - Shanghai Electric (600021) closed at 18.52, up 9.98% with a trading volume of 456,100 shares [1] - Zhaoxin Co., Ltd. (002256) closed at 3.89, up 9.89% with a trading volume of 1.6134 million shares [1] - Jiawei New Energy (300317) closed at 4.45, up 7.49% with a trading volume of 1.507 million shares [1] Top Losers in the Electricity Sector - Guang'an Aizhong (600979) closed at 5.06, down 7.16% with a trading volume of 1.0625 million shares [2] - Yunnan Energy Investment (002053) closed at 13.91, down 3.87% with a trading volume of 377,100 shares [2] - Hengtong Optic-Electric (600226) closed at 3.71, down 3.13% with a trading volume of 2.2006 million shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The electricity sector saw a net inflow of 836 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 136 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Changjiang Electric (600900) had a net inflow of 603 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 321 million yuan [3] - Jingyuntong (601908) had a net inflow of 207 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 128 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry [12]. Core Insights - Since 2025, electricity demand has slowed, with a year-on-year growth of 3.73% in total electricity consumption in the first half of the year. The revenue of the power sector decreased by 3.61% year-on-year due to adjustments in annual long-term contract prices in several provinces. However, benefiting from a significant drop in coal prices and stable growth in the high-margin hydropower sector, the net profit attributable to shareholders in the power sector increased by 1.49% year-on-year. In the second quarter, net profit decreased by 2.16% year-on-year, with performance continuing to diverge among sub-sectors [2][21][36]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the power sector achieved a revenue of 844.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.61% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 102.01 billion yuan, an increase of 1.49% year-on-year [21][25]. Thermal Power - In the first half of 2025, thermal power generation decreased by 2.40% year-on-year, and revenue fell by 5.81% year-on-year to 608.77 billion yuan. However, net profit increased by 3.92% year-on-year to 48.91 billion yuan due to significant cost reductions, with the average coal price dropping by 199.21 yuan per ton [6][27][52]. Hydropower - Despite a decrease in water inflow, major hydropower companies maintained stable growth, with revenue increasing by 4.16% year-on-year to 62.21 billion yuan and net profit rising by 10.05% year-on-year to 22.44 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [7][27]. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector faced challenges due to weak wind and solar conditions, with revenue growth of only 2.18% year-on-year to 156.40 billion yuan. Net profit decreased by 7.24% year-on-year to 29.65 billion yuan, impacted by rising costs and market price pressures [8][27]. Grid Sector - The grid sector's performance was affected by reduced water inflow and weak electricity demand, resulting in a net profit of 0.998 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.25% year-on-year [9][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the transformation of quality thermal power and the investment value of clean energy. It recommends leading companies in thermal power such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Huaneng Hydropower. For renewable energy, it suggests companies like China Nuclear Power and Funiu Co., Ltd. [10][40].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13 points, slightly down by 0.45%, with a total trading volume of 29,124.23 billion yuan [1]. Stocks Breaking Through Annual Line - A total of 17 A-shares have surpassed their annual line, with notable stocks including: - Sanwei Co., Ltd. (603033) with a deviation rate of 6.83% - Jing Shan Light Machinery (000821) at 4.52% - Jidian Co., Ltd. (000875) at 4.45% [1]. Deviation Rate Rankings - The following stocks have the highest deviation rates from their annual lines: - Sanwei Co., Ltd. (603033): Today's price increased by 10.02% with a turnover rate of 3.44%, latest price at 12.96 yuan [1]. - Jing Shan Light Machinery (000821): Increased by 5.32%, turnover rate of 14.82%, latest price at 12.68 yuan [1]. - Jidian Co., Ltd. (000875): Increased by 6.18%, turnover rate of 7.79%, latest price at 5.50 yuan [1]. Other Stocks with Minor Deviations - Stocks with smaller deviation rates include: - Xiangjiang Holdings (600162) with a minor increase of 1.52% [2]. - Lihu Co., Ltd. (300694) with a deviation rate of 0.07% [1].

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for Public Utilities (000995) increased by 0.89% as of September 2, 2025, with notable gains from Shanghai Electric (600021) up 9.98%, Jilin Electric Power (000875) up 5.98%, and Huaneng Hydropower (600025) up 2.32% [1] - In July, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10,226 billion kilowatt-hours, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, with monthly consumption surpassing 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, indicating strong demand [1] - Dongguan Securities highlighted that the first and third industries, along with urban and rural residential electricity consumption, experienced rapid growth, while the average price of thermal coal decreased year-on-year, benefiting the profitability of thermal power companies [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index for Public Utilities (000995) include Yangtze Power (600900), China Nuclear Power (601985), and Three Gorges Energy (600905), collectively accounting for 56.01% of the index [2]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至今日上午收盘，上证综指3844.84点，收于年线之上，涨跌幅为-0.79%，A 股总成交额为19304.44亿元。到目前为止，今日有16只A股价格突破了年线，其中乖离率较大的个股有 吉电股份、中瑞股份、京山轻机等，乖离率分别为5.58%、4.63%、4.52%；长江电力、香江控股、中国 广核等个股乖离率较小，刚刚站上年线。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 证券代 | 证券简 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 年线 | 最新价 | 乖离率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 码 | 称 | （%） | （%） | （元） | （元） | （%） | | 000875 | 吉电股 份 | 7.34 | 6.58 | 5.27 | 5.56 | 5.58 | | 301587 | 中瑞股 份 | 6.28 | 12.19 | 23.30 | 24.38 | 4.63 | | 000821 | 京山轻 机 | 5.32 | 12.35 | 12.13 | 12.68 | 4.52 | | 000564 | 供销大 集 | 9.84 ...