记者丨孙永乐 编辑丨巫燕玲 券商研究所管理层、明星分析师持续流动！ 近日，中泰证券（600918.SH）研究所副所长、有色金属行业首席分析师谢鸿鹤离任。截至8月5日，证 券业协会官网已检索不到其备案信息。 对此，中泰证券在2024年财报中称，公募降费改革新规实施，对券商分仓佣金收入与机构业务收入结构 造成一定影响，但从长期来看将推动券商研究业务转型，促进业务回归本源。 截至2024年末，中泰证券研究业务覆盖银行、电子、建材、有色金属、汽车、机械、电力设备新能源等 20余个行业，拥有宏观策略、金融工程、北交所等研究团队，全年发布证券研究报告3758篇。 从行业评比看，中泰证券研究所的优势行业较为单薄。2024年新财富最佳分析师评选中，其获银行业第 3名、电子行业第3名、非金属类建材行业第5名、汽车及零部件行业第5名。 21世纪经济报道记者向中泰证券内部人士求证，谢鸿鹤确已卸任上述职位。至于谢鸿鹤下一步去向及具 体离职原因，暂未知晓。 公开简历显示，谢鸿鹤为西安交通大学经济学学士、香港城市大学金融学硕士，具备超过十年的有色金 属行业研究经验。曾任国信证券、高盛高华证券、招商证券、中信建投等研究所有色金属行业分析师 ...

Core Insights - The departure of Xie Honghe, a prominent analyst at Zhongtai Securities, reflects a broader trend of talent mobility within the brokerage industry, with over 10 firms experiencing leadership changes in their research departments this year [1][6] - Zhongtai Securities has faced a significant decline in commission income, with a 44.30% drop in 2024, leading to a decrease in its industry ranking [2][3] - Despite the challenges, Zhongtai Securities aims to adapt its research business to new regulations and enhance its competitive edge through diversified development strategies [2][3] Company Performance - Zhongtai Securities' research department has seen a reduction in commission income to 271 million yuan in 2024, ranking 18th in the industry, down five places from the previous year [2] - The firm reported a projected net profit of 723 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking an 80.09% year-on-year increase [3] Talent Dynamics - The overall number of analysts in the brokerage industry has increased, with Zhongtai Securities expanding its analyst team from 106 to 115 in 2025 [3][5] - The industry has experienced a slowdown in the growth of analyst numbers, with only 53 new analysts added in the first half of 2025 compared to over 700 in previous years [5][6] - A significant talent migration has occurred, with over 220 analysts changing firms in the first half of 2025, indicating a competitive environment for attracting and retaining talent [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The extreme divergence between credit spreads and stock risk premiums led to the starting point of the current A-share valuation expansion. The current round of A-share market is driven by funds, and the logic has only reached the middle stage, with the upward trend unfinished [2]. - The fact that the risk premium has reached "mean - 1 standard deviation" does not mean the end of the market. Considering the intensity and duration of the current round of fund - driven, A - share valuations are expected to continue to expand, driving the risk premium to decline further, and the risk - compensation returns of stocks and bonds will eventually converge [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Historically, the stock market risk premium can stay below "mean - 1 standard deviation" for a long time - There were several historical periods when the stock market risk premium fell below "mean - 1 standard deviation", such as from December 2014 to August 2015, November 2017 to February 2018, and September 2020 to April 2021, with durations of 9 months, 2 months, and 8 months respectively. Except for the 2017 - 2018 period when the risk premium could not continue to decline due to rapid liquidity withdrawal, in other periods, it could fall to around "mean - 2 standard deviations" or even lower [3]. - These historical periods had similar macro - environments that did not support a bull market in stocks. The factors driving the significant expansion of A - share valuations were not fundamental but fund - driven, and there was no continuous expansion of corporate profits [3]. 2. In the current round of the market, the indexes have expanded to varying degrees, and there are no signs of an end - Since the beginning of the year, the stock market has priced in the decline of the risk - free rate. Different sectors have different repair progress. The repair of large - cap stocks is relatively large, with the ERP basically reaching "mean - 1 standard deviation", while the ERP of small - and medium - cap stocks is still above the historical mean [4]. - The current round of valuation expansion also starts from changes in the capital side. Since September 2024, the economic fundamentals and corporate profit growth have been weak, and the monetary policy has been relatively loose. The core factor determining the start and end of the market is the sustainability of fund - driving. The current round of fund - driven logic has only evolved to institutional - driven and allocation - driven (insurance funds taking the lead), and bank wealth management and public funds will take over in the second half of the year [4]. - With the expansion of A - share valuations, the risk premium of the Shanghai Composite Index has been below "mean - 1 standard deviation" since July 18, lasting for less than 1 month. "Mean - 1 standard deviation" cannot be a sign of the end of the market, especially since the risk premiums of some sectors are still above the mean [4]. 3. Valuation expansion space calculation under two scenario assumptions - Historically, the extreme situation of index valuation expansion is in the range of "mean - N standard deviations", where N is between 0.6 - 4.0, with a median of approximately 2.0. - Scenario 1 assumes that the stock market risk premium can fall to "mean - 2 standard deviations"; Scenario 2 assumes that it can fall to "mean - N standard deviations", where N corresponds to the lowest level previously reached by the index's ERP. - Based on these two assumptions, the ChiNext Index has the largest PE expansion space, followed by the Wind 300 (ex - banks), CSI 1000, and CSI 500. The PE expansion spaces of the SSE 50, Shanghai Composite Index, and Wind Dividend Index are relatively small, but there is still expansion space even in a conservative scenario [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The company has faced significant challenges with its major client, A1 unit, leading to a substantial increase in bad debt provisions due to the inability to collect receivables, which has prompted a shift from collective to individual bad debt provisioning [1][2][10]. Group 1: Accounts Receivable and Bad Debt Provisions - As of the end of 2024, the company's accounts receivable from A1 unit amounted to 406 million yuan, with 224 million yuan (55.17%) attributed to A1 unit [1]. - The bad debt provision for A1 unit was adjusted from a collective basis to an individual basis, with a bad debt loss of 60.78 million yuan, representing a provision rate of 27% [1][10]. - The aging analysis shows that as of the end of 2024, 181.42 million yuan of accounts receivable from A1 unit were aged 2-3 years, and 41.80 million yuan were aged 3-4 years, with no repayments received to date [3][10]. Group 2: Revenue Recognition and Client Relationship - Revenue from A1 unit was recognized upon delivery and acceptance of products, with total recognized revenue of 285.66 million yuan against a contract amount of 288.66 million yuan [12][14]. - The company has maintained ongoing communication with A1 unit to facilitate the collection of receivables and has continued to provide after-sales support and product development [15][16]. - Despite the lack of new contracts or payments from A1 unit in 2024, the business relationship remains active, with ongoing product deliveries and technical support [16][18]. Group 3: Audit and Verification - The sponsor institution conducted thorough verification procedures, including interviews with management and reviews of accounts receivable details, confirming the accuracy of revenue recognition and the sufficiency of bad debt provisions [16][17]. - The audit confirmed that the company’s bad debt provisioning practices align with industry standards and that the provisions made for A1 unit were adequate given the circumstances [10][19].

责任编辑：张恒星 专题：第二届新浪财经金麒麟最佳投资顾问评选 新浪财经主办、银华基金独家合作的"第二届金麒麟最佳投资顾问评选"活动火热进行中！财富管理最后一公里，谁是优秀的"引路人"？新浪财经与银华基金共同寻找优秀投资顾问，赋能投顾IP 目前金麒麟最佳投资顾问评选火热进行中！股票模拟交易、场内ETF模拟交易、公募基金模拟配置、社交服务评比……万名投顾大PK，首月（7月）月榜数据（周期为7月1日-7月31日）显示，场 其次，东兴证券投资顾问林惠杰（来自深圳金田路证券营业部）以月收益率17.97%居月榜第二位；中泰证券投资顾问任游为（来自深圳分公司）以月收益率15.58%居月榜第三位。 以下为场内ETF模拟交易组TOP50榜单： 【股市热议】专业投顾市场观点：看好哪些板块？概念轮动节奏如何？ 【相关阅读】银华基金投顾每日观点 ...

证券之星消息，8月4日证券板块较上一交易日上涨0.22%，湘财股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3583.31，上涨0.66%。深证成指报收于11041.56，上涨0.46%。证券板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600095 | 湘财股份 | 10.90 | 1.87% | 46.01万 | | 4.96亿 | | 601059 | 信达证券 | 16.47 | 1.35% | 20.02万 | | 3.27亿 | | 300059 | 东方财富 | 23.35 | 0.78% | 206.02万 | | 47.90亿 | | 002670 | 国盛金控 | 15.17 | 0.73% | P 32.02万 | | 4.81亿 | | 002945 | 华林证券 | 15.16 | 0.66% | 9.76万 | | 1.47亿 | | 600918 | 中泰证券 | 6.71 | 0.60% | 18.47万 | | 1.23亿 | | 600 ...

Group 1 - The "Second Golden Qilin Best Investment Advisor Selection" event is currently ongoing, organized by Sina Finance in collaboration with Yinhua Fund, aiming to identify outstanding investment advisors and enhance the investment advisory IP construction [1][4] - The first month's (July) performance data shows that the top investment advisor in the ETF simulation trading group is Wu Yinchao from Caitong Securities, achieving a monthly return of 21.16% [1][2] - The second and third positions are held by Lin Huijie from Dongxing Securities with a return of 17.97% and Ren Youwei from Zhongtai Securities with a return of 15.58% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The top 10 investment advisors in the ETF simulation trading group for July are as follows: 1. Wu Yinchao (Caitong Securities) - 21.16% 2. Lin Huijie (Dongxing Securities) - 17.97% 3. Ren Youwei (Zhongtai Securities) - 15.58% 4. Long Fengli (Shenwan Hongyuan Securities) - 14.33% 5. Sun Baoyan (Cinda Securities) - 13.61% 6. Luo Fayu (Dongxing Securities) - 13.55% 7. Yin Yongzhen (Founder Securities) - 13.46% 8. Yu Yang (Shenwan Hongyuan Securities) - 13.11% 9. Zhang Hongxin (Changjiang Securities) - 12.96% 10. Lu Xiujuan (Western Securities) - 11.85% [2][5][6]

Group 1 - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the A-share market is expected to continue a structural upward trend driven by valuation recovery under a dual easing environment of fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on sectors with clear policy guidance and high prosperity [1] - As of July 29, 2025, the total net asset value of non-monetary ETFs reached 4.49 trillion yuan, showing a steady increase compared to the end of Q1, with stock and cross-border ETFs dominating the market share [1] - The trading volume of stock ETFs has decreased as investors shifted towards direct stock trading to capture short-term opportunities, leading to a decline in the proportion of stock ETFs in the overall market [1] Group 2 - The proportion of scale index ETFs in stock ETFs has decreased from 75.9% at the beginning of the year to 71.6% by July, while the shares of theme and industry index ETFs have increased [2] - The bank ETF has seen significant growth, with its share exceeding 16 billion yuan, while the pharmaceutical ETF has experienced a reduction of over 14 billion yuan [2] - The semiconductor ETF has been continuously increased due to AI capital expenditure, and the bank ETF has also been significantly increased after May [2] Group 3 - The report highlights that the Huijin fund has increased its holdings in ETFs significantly, with over 200 billion yuan added in Q2, primarily in the CSI 300, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI 500 ETFs [3] - The Huijin fund's increase in holdings has provided a stabilizing signal for the market, with the Huijin fund becoming the largest shareholder in several ETFs [3][4] - The total share of Huijin's major ETFs has increased significantly, with the CSI 300 ETF's total share growing by 16.18% from April 3 to April 21 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold sector is currently experiencing a strong performance in the secondary market, indicating the potential for a significant bull market in gold, which is suggested to be the fourth since 1970 [4] - The analyst, Xie Honghe, recommends that investors comprehensively allocate their investments in gold stocks as a revaluation trend has begun [4] Group 2 - According to the 2024 annual report from Zhongtai Securities, the company achieved an operating income of 10.891 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.66% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 937 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decline of 47.92% [4]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 中泰证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年4月29日、2025年5月27日分别召开公司第三届董事 会第十一次会议、公司2024年度股东会，审议通过了《关于〈公司以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案〉 的议案》，拟使用自有资金3亿元（含）-5亿元（含），通过集中竞价交易方式回购部分公司股份，回 购价格不超过9.42元/股（含），用于减少公司注册资本。因公司实施2024年年度权益分派，本次回购 股份价格上限自2025年6月12日起，由不超过人民币9.42元/股（含）调整为不超过人民币9.40元/股 （含）。本次回购的具体内容详见公司于2025年4月30日、2025年6月11日、2025年6月13日在上海证券 交易所网站披露的《中泰证券股份有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的方案》《中泰证券股份 有限公司关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的回购报告书》《中泰证券股份有限公司关于2024年年度权 益分派实施后调整回购股份价格上限的公告 ...