Report Title - Fund Selling, Rural Commercial Banks Buying - Tracking of Liquidity and Institutional Behavior [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week (July 21 - July 25), the money market rates generally increased, the average daily net lending of large banks increased, and funds reduced leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit increased, and the yields of certificates of deposit at all tenors decreased. In the cash bond market, rural commercial banks were the main buyers, mainly increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; funds were the main sellers, mainly reducing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought 1 - 3Y interest - rate bonds [3] Summary by Directory 1. Money and Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations**: A total of 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 170.7 billion, 214.8 billion, 150.5 billion, 331 billion, and 789.3 billion yuan from Monday to Friday, respectively, with a total investment of 1656.3 billion yuan. On Friday, 200 billion yuan of MLF matured and 400 billion yuan was invested, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 129.5 billion yuan for the whole week [7][10] - **Funding Rates**: As of July 25, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.55%, 1.69%, 1.52%, and 1.65% respectively, with changes of 6.41BP, 18.65BP, 6.08BP, and 14.56BP compared to July 18, and were at the 24%, 13%, 22%, and 9% historical percentiles respectively [7][13] - **Net Funding Flows of Main Institutions**: The net borrowing of the main funding providers (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock banks) was 448.6 billion yuan for the whole week, an increase of 61.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net borrowing of fund companies and securities companies was - 270.5 billion and - 162.7 billion yuan respectively, with the net borrowing of fund companies decreasing by 309.6 billion yuan and that of securities companies decreasing by 155.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][17] - **Repo Market**: The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.7 trillion yuan and a maximum single - day trading volume of 8.04 trillion yuan, a 6.27% increase compared to the previous week's average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 88.5% and a maximum single - day proportion of 90.3%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous week's average [7] - **Leverage Ratio**: As of July 25, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.3%, 186.5%, 127.4%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of - 0.12BP, - 15.49BP, 1.12BP, and - 0.53BP compared to July 18, and were at the 16%, 0%, 62%, and 23% historical percentiles respectively [7][26] 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - **Issuance and Financing of Certificates of Deposit**: The issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased this week, with a total issuance of 515.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 429.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 560.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 702.86 billion yuan compared to the previous week [7][30] - **Maturity of Certificates of Deposit**: The maturity volume of certificates of deposit increased this week, with a total maturity of 1076.48 billion yuan, an increase of 273.67 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week (July 28 - August 1), 376.74 billion yuan of certificates of deposit will mature [7][30][36] - **Interest Rates of Certificates of Deposit**: The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit of all banks and at all tenors increased. As of July 25, the one - year issuance interest rates of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased by 4.17BP, 1BP, 0.17BP, and 1BP respectively compared to July 18. The issuance interest rates of 1M, 3M, and 6M certificates of deposit increased by 0.59BP, 2.15BP, and 4.86BP respectively compared to July 18 [39] - **Shibor Rates**: The Shibor rates increased this week. As of July 25, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor rates increased by 5.8BP, 12.6BP, 16.8BP, 0.9BP, and 0.4BP respectively compared to July 18 [42] - **Yields of Certificates of Deposit at Maturity**: The yields of certificates of deposit at maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank certificates of deposit increased by 4.01BP, 4.69BP, 6.16BP, 5.06BP, and 5.75BP respectively compared to July 18 [44] - **Bill Interest Rates**: The bill interest rates decreased. As of July 25, the 3M direct discount rate, 3M transfer discount rate, 6M direct discount rate, and 6M transfer discount rate of national - owned shares decreased by 5BP, 13BP, 8BP, and 9BP respectively compared to July 18 [7][47] 3. Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Cash Bond Trading**: Rural commercial banks were the main buyers in the cash bond market this week, with a net purchase of 261.7 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week. Funds were the main sellers, with a net sale of 358.7 billion yuan, also an increase compared to the previous week. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan [7][49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Funds**: Funds reduced their holdings of cash bonds by 358.7 billion yuan, including a reduction of 236.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 22.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, 61.2 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 39.1 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly reduced their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 1 - 5 - year credit bonds [7][49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Wealth Management Products**: Wealth management products increased their holdings of cash bonds by 107.6 billion yuan, including an increase of 26.6 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 15.3 billion yuan in credit bonds, 15.3 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 50.5 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds with a tenor of less than 1 year [49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Rural Financial Institutions**: Rural financial institutions increased their holdings of cash bonds by 261.7 billion yuan, including an increase of 271.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 4.5 billion yuan in credit bonds, 36.6 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and a reduction of 50.8 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 7 - 10 - year interest - rate bonds and 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [49] - **Portfolio Adjustments of Insurance Companies**: Insurance companies increased their holdings of cash bonds by 115.9 billion yuan, including an increase of 66.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 12.6 billion yuan in credit bonds, 8 billion yuan in other (including Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds), and 29.1 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. In terms of tenor, they mainly increased their holdings of 20 - 30 - year interest - rate bonds and 7 - 10 - year credit bonds [50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports emphasizes the continued recommendation of the banking sector, highlighting its stability and sustainability post "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - Two main investment themes in the banking sector are identified: regional advantages with strong certainty in city and rural commercial banks, and high dividend stability in large banks and joint-stock banks [1] - In Q2 2025, there was a return to dividend and risk-averse market styles, leading to inflows into the banking sector from various funds [1] Group 2 - Active funds saw an increase in allocation to the banking sector, with a rise of 1.77 percentage points to 5.78%, driven mainly by changes in positions [2] - The top five banks receiving inflows from active funds were 招行 (+0.32%), 江苏 (+0.23%), 杭州 (+0.19%), 兴业 (+0.17%), and 渝农 (+0.11%) [2] - Significant net inflows into banks such as 招行, 杭州, 南京, 兴业, and 民生 were recorded, with amounts of 27.51, 16.79, 12.52, 12.36, and 9.31 million respectively [2] Group 3 - Passive funds experienced an increase in both the market value of bank stocks held and their proportion of the total market value of the banking sector [3] - By the end of Q2 2025, the total market value of bank stocks held by passive funds reached 2283.96 billion, a 25.22% increase from the end of Q1 [3] - Major banks like 兴业 and 招行 saw significant net inflows from passive funds, with inflows of 76.52 and 55.54 million respectively [3] Group 4 - Northbound funds continued to increase their holdings in the banking sector, with a total market value of 2541.68 billion by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting an 11.69% increase from Q1 [3] - The proportion of bank stocks held by northbound funds reached 8.92% of the free float market value, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] - Major inflows from northbound funds were noted for 平安银行 and 中国银行, with inflows of 19.6 and 15.8 million respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector in A-shares is experiencing significant growth, with the brokerage index rising over 25% since April 8, and many brokerages reporting substantial increases in net profit for the first half of the year, driven by a recovering capital market and favorable policies [1][2][3][8]. Performance Summary - At least 28 listed brokerages have released performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with most reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%, and some large brokerages, such as Shenwan Hongyuan and Guotai Junan, expecting over 100% growth [2][5][6]. - The overall increase in brokerage performance is attributed to the active trading environment in the capital market, which has significantly boosted self-operated investment income and brokerage fee income [8][9]. Factors Supporting Growth - **Fundamental Support**: The active trading environment is expected to continue benefiting brokerage performance, with most brokerages forecasting net profit growth of over 50% for the second half of the year [3][13]. - **Capital Support**: The allocation of equity funds to non-bank financials has increased slightly, indicating potential for further investment in brokerages [14]. - **Policy Support**: Recent policy changes encourage brokerages to focus on improving return on equity (ROE), which may enhance their performance [15]. - **Valuation Levels**: Most brokerages have a price-to-book ratio just above 1, with only about 10 listed brokerages exceeding a ratio of 2, suggesting room for valuation growth [16]. Dividend Yield and Valuation - Several brokerages offer dividend yields above 2%, which is higher than the yield on 10-year government bonds, making them attractive for income-focused investors [1][16][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic automotive market is expected to see a significant increase in the share of strong independent brands, with an annual growth range of 8-14% [1] - The report highlights that 60-70% of mainstream listed auto parts companies are expected to enter the robotics sector, driven by the high degree of technological synergy between vehicles and robotics [1] - The report indicates that the total number of new vehicle registrations for the week of July 14-20 was 399,000, which is below the weekly threshold of 400,000, showing a year-on-year increase of 9% and a month-on-month increase of 8.1% [1] Group 2 - The report expresses a positive outlook for the automotive and smart driving investment opportunities for the year, particularly focusing on strong independent brands and the robotics supply chain [2] - It notes that while there is a consensus on a short-term industry off-season, the potential for order reversals in the automotive sector remains high, suggesting continued focus on investment opportunities in 2025 [3] - Key stocks to watch include strong independent brands such as Xiaomi, Leap Motor, Xpeng, BYD, and others, with specific attention to their product cycles and market positioning [4] Group 3 - The annual strategy emphasizes the acceleration of domestic replacement and overseas capacity, along with the universalization of smart driving and the extension into robotics, favoring strong independent brands [5] - The report anticipates that the global replacement and platform extension capabilities will be key growth areas for 2025 [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the complexity of investing in local government bonds, highlighting the need to understand pricing logic, regional differences, and market dynamics [6] - The entry of more trading institutions, such as wealth management subsidiaries and public funds, has significantly improved the liquidity of local government bonds, especially in the second half of last year [6] - The report expresses a cautious outlook for pure bond investments in the fourth quarter, citing potential market adjustments and increased volatility risks due to liquidity pressures from wealth management products [7] Summary by Sections Fund Manager Profile - Li Yulu, the fund manager of Manulife Fund, has a decade of experience in fixed income and holds a master's degree in international banking and monetary economics from the University of Birmingham [6] - Li has previously worked in various roles related to credit analysis and investment management before joining Manulife in 2021 [6] Investment Strategy - The report discusses the current allocation strategy, focusing on convertible bonds primarily in the banking and aquaculture sectors, with a positive outlook on their performance due to low PB valuations [7] - It also mentions a portion of the portfolio allocated to environmental and state-owned enterprise reform themes, driven by strong government intentions to reduce debt [7] Market Performance - The report indicates a favorable view on the overall performance of fixed income products, particularly convertible bonds, which align with current market trends [8] - It notes that the median returns of primary and secondary bond funds are similar this year, but primary bond funds have experienced less drawdown, making them more attractive to certain investors [8] Sector Focus - The report highlights significant changes in the holdings of actively managed equity funds, with a decrease in large-cap stocks and an increase in positions in industry leaders within the AI hardware and communication sectors [11][12] - It points out that the non-bank financial sector has seen substantial increases in holdings, reflecting a recovery in valuations and performance expectations [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes: communication and hardware sectors benefiting from AI expansion, non-bank financials, new consumption trends in Hong Kong, and defense and military sectors [14]

Core Insights - Shandong provincial state-owned enterprises (SOEs) reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, leading in revenue, total assets, and equity among 32 provincial state-owned enterprises in China, excluding municipalities [2] - The total revenue and total assets of Shandong SOEs continued to grow, with 15 enterprises achieving year-on-year revenue growth, and 22 enterprises reporting asset growth [2][4] - The profit total for Shandong SOEs reached 496.9 billion yuan, with 16 enterprises either increasing profits or reducing losses, indicating a significant recovery trend [2][3] Revenue and Asset Growth - In the first half of 2025, Shandong SOEs achieved a total revenue of 1002 billion yuan, with notable growth from companies like Shandong Gold and Inspur Group, which saw revenue increases of over 5% [2] - The total assets of 22 enterprises grew year-on-year, with 12 of them, including Hualu Group and Shandong Iron Investment, also experiencing growth rates exceeding 5% [2] Profitability and Cash Flow - Key enterprises such as Shandong Heavy Industry and Shandong Expressway reported profit totals of 149.7 billion yuan and 101.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9% and 5.6% [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities for Shandong SOEs was 554 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, indicating improved self-sustainability [2] Innovation and R&D Investment - Shandong SOEs invested 203.6 billion yuan in R&D, focusing on sectors like machinery manufacturing and information technology, with new product revenue reaching 1126.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - The provincial government has increased the weight of technology innovation in performance assessments from 12.5% to 33%, emphasizing the importance of innovation in corporate strategy [3] Market Expansion and Investment - Despite global market challenges, Shandong SOEs optimized their overseas market strategies, achieving export revenue of 607.3 billion yuan [4] - Fixed asset investment by Shandong SOEs totaled 719.3 billion yuan, with significant contributions from companies like Shandong Expressway and Shandong Iron Investment, which each invested over 100 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is experiencing accelerated resource integration and a significant phenomenon of "survival of the fittest," particularly evident in the stock transfer of brokerages this year [1] Group 1: Stock Transfer Trends - The stock transfer of brokerages has increased significantly this year, with noticeable "hot and cold" differences among different firms [1][2] - Middle and small brokerages are frequently encountering stock transfers, with some experiencing multiple failed auctions or remaining "unattended" [2][3] Group 2: Specific Cases of Stock Transfers - A recent stock transfer of 5.0108 million shares of Zhongtai Securities was listed for public auction on JD's judicial auction platform, with a starting price of approximately 31.04 million yuan [2] - Daitong Securities is currently offering 15.42% of its shares for public transfer, while Century Securities is transferring 0.05% of its shares with a base price of 2.95 million yuan [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The accelerated stock transfer reflects the industry's consolidation and reshaping competitive landscape, with some small brokerages facing poor operational conditions leading shareholders to divest [3] - Stronger institutions' shares are favored by market investors, as seen in the case of Dongfang Fortune, where a proposed transfer of 159 million shares was fully subscribed by 27 institutional investors [4]

宏利基金李宇璐:纯债为基,增强为刃 证券研究报告/转债专题报告 2025年07月23日 分析师:吕品 执业证书编号:S0740525060003 Email: Ivpin@zts.com.cn 分析师:宋康泰 执业证书编号:S0740525070003 Email: songkt01@zts.com.cn | 重要指数收盘价及涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | | 中证转债 | 459.59 | 0.02 | | 上证指数 0.02 | 3.581.86 | | 转债及相关指数走势对比 报告摘要 基金经理简介:李宇璐,固收部甚金经理;英国伯明翰大学国际银行货币学硕士;10 年固定收益从业经验,具有基金从业资格。2012年至 2014年任职于大公国际资信评 估有限公司工商企业二部担任分析师、行业组长;2015年任职于安邦保险集团股份有 限公司信用险部,担任信用评审经理;2016年3月加入建信养老金管理有限责任公 司投资管理部,担任信用研究员、投资经理助理及投资经理,18年起管理年金及养老 金产品:2021年4月加入泰达宏利固定收益部,担任甚金经理助 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhongtai Securities has responded to the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its 6 billion yuan private placement application, addressing regulatory concerns and updating its fundraising plan [2][3] - The company plans to raise no more than 6 billion yuan, which will be allocated to six areas including information technology, compliance risk control, alternative investments, market-making business, wealth management, debt repayment, and operational capital supplementation [3] - The controlling shareholder, Zhaomining Group, intends to subscribe approximately 36.09% of the offering, amounting to a maximum of 2.166 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - As of March 31, 2025, Zhongtai Securities is projected to have a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.41%, with interest-bearing liabilities reaching 84.873 billion yuan, over 50% of which are short-term debts [3] - The company plans to allocate no more than 1.5 billion yuan of the raised funds for debt repayment and operational capital to alleviate financial costs and liquidity pressure [3] - Zhongtai Securities has faced multiple administrative penalties and regulatory measures, with a total of 16 actions taken from 2022 to the first quarter of 2025, including warning letters and disciplinary actions [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent disclosure of public fund second-quarter reports by securities asset management firms, highlighting the growth in asset management scale and insights from fund managers [2][3]. Group 1: Asset Management Scale - As of the end of Q2 2025, four securities asset management firms have surpassed a public fund asset management scale of 100 billion yuan, with Dongfanghong Asset Management leading at 179.84 billion yuan, followed by Huatai Securities Asset Management at 165.11 billion yuan, and Zhongyin Securities at 130.31 billion yuan [4]. - Compared to the end of Q1 2025, the top securities asset management firms have generally experienced growth in public fund management scale, with Dongfanghong and Huatai Securities increasing by over 20 billion yuan each, and招商证券 growing by 3.3 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - The A-share market has been active in the first half of the year, with securities asset management fund managers generally reporting good performance and rising product net values [6]. - Jiang Qi, the fund manager of Dongfanghong Medical Upgrade Stock A, reported a net value increase of 44.55% in the first half of the year, reaching a new high since its inception [7]. - Jiang Qi maintains a high stock position of 90.37% and has increased allocations to innovative drugs in the Hong Kong and Sci-Tech Innovation Board markets, indicating a strong belief in the growth of the innovative drug sector [7]. - Zhou Yun, managing the Dongfanghong JD Big Data Mixed Fund, noted a net value increase of 6.55% in the first half of the year, emphasizing the long-term impact of low interest rates and the shift of household wealth towards equity assets [8]. - Jiang Cheng, Deputy General Manager of Zhongtai Asset Management, reported that his product's net value has increased over 108% in the past five years, while expressing a cautious outlook on individual stocks despite a generally optimistic macroeconomic view [9][10].