1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing logic of gold is undergoing a phased transformation, evolving from a "safe - haven asset" to a "trading - type risk asset" [4]. - The market's expectation of the long - term nature of the conflict has been largely reflected in the price, and the marginal cost - effectiveness of continuing to bet on the escalation of the event is decreasing [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the new energy industry chain and global manufacturing reconstruction are worthy of attention [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Market Performance**: Most major market indices declined last week, with the CSI 500 having a relatively large decline. Among the major industries, the financial index and the daily consumption index performed relatively well, while the material index and the industrial index performed weakly. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 2 industries rose (communications and banks), and the industries with large declines were non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel [11][13][14]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A last week was 2.211117 trillion yuan (the previous value was 2.498707 trillion yuan), which was at a relatively high historical level (87.50% of the three - year historical quantile) [9][25]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of March 20, 2026, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A was 22.59, a decrease of 0.74 from the previous week, and it was at the 95.60% quantile of the historical (nearly 5 - year) level. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) showed improvement [12][28]. Market Observation - **Understanding the Sharp Drop in Precious Metals This Week**: The inverse correlation between gold and crude oil prices has significantly increased. Gold's pricing logic is changing, and it is more affected by capital and trading structure. The market's expectation of the long - term nature of the conflict is rising, and the cost - effectiveness of crude oil risk gambling is decreasing [4]. - **Which A - share Sectors May Continuously Benefit from the Long - term Geopolitical Conflict**: The long - term structural changes brought about by the increase in the oil price center have not been fully priced by the market. The external demand logic of the new energy industry chain may be continuously strengthened, and the demand for upstream resource products and mid - stream equipment manufacturing is expected to increase. It is recommended to reduce the participation in "conflict - trading" sectors in the short term and focus on new energy and global manufacturing reconstruction in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Economic Calendar - This week, attention should be paid to domestic economic data such as March fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, industrial added value, and unemployment rate, as well as overseas economic data such as the March euro - zone CPI year - on - year and month - on - month, the US federal funds rate forecast, and the US Federal Reserve bank reserve amount. There are also important events such as the March Fed interest rate decision, FOMC economic forecast, and FOMC monetary policy statement [33].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant upward trend in 2025, with major indices breaking through important levels for the first time in a decade, yet the number of securities business offices has decreased, returning to levels seen seven years ago despite a daily trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Changes in Securities Business Offices - As of the end of 2025, the total number of securities business offices in mainland China has dropped to 11,300, reverting to 2018 levels, after peaking at 11,800 in 2021, marking a 40% increase over six years from 2015 [4]. - The decline in the number of business offices is attributed to industry competition, transformation requirements, and technological advancements, with a significant shift towards online services reducing the need for physical locations [4][5]. - The trend of reducing business offices is particularly pronounced in lower-tier cities, with many offices in regions like Guangxi and Henan returning to levels seen in 2017 or earlier [7][9]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments by Brokerages - Brokerages are adopting two main strategies for consolidating offices: merging those in areas with limited market potential and closing underperforming offices to enhance overall operational efficiency [5]. - The focus has shifted towards core urban areas and key cities, with new branch offices being established in these regions while traditional offices are being reduced [5][12]. - The industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes customized services in core areas, the establishment of offices in industrial parks, and the enhancement of service capabilities in major cities [13]. Group 3: Regional Disparities in Office Reductions - There is a notable disparity in the reduction of business offices across different provinces and city tiers, with developed regions like Beijing and Shanghai seeing a concentration of resources, while many less developed areas experience significant declines [7][8]. - In Guangxi, for instance, the number of business offices has decreased significantly, with only two firms maintaining county-level offices, reflecting a broader trend of consolidation in less profitable markets [9][14]. - Some provinces, such as Shaanxi and Hainan, have seen an increase in the number of business offices, driven by local economic initiatives and development strategies [9]. Group 4: Local Brokerages and Market Dynamics - Local brokerages are playing a crucial role in providing financial services in economically weaker regions, maintaining stable office numbers while larger firms withdraw [14][15]. - The ongoing urbanization and the emergence of a new middle class present opportunities for local firms to expand their wealth management services [15]. - However, challenges remain as larger firms continue to invest in these regions, intensifying competition and highlighting the need for local firms to enhance their service capabilities and talent acquisition [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.43 RMB [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a regional leader in Shandong, leveraging its state-owned background to build a comprehensive financial service platform. The integration of Wanjia Fund has diversified its revenue structure, although overall return on equity (ROE) still requires improvement [6][7] - The report emphasizes the potential for business expansion and valuation recovery following a 6 billion RMB capital increase, which is expected to enhance operational capabilities and financial performance [8] Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to reach 10,891 million RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 15%. However, it is expected to grow by 9% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 9% in 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 937 million RMB in 2024, a significant drop of 48% year-on-year, but is expected to rebound with a 51% increase in 2025 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are estimated to be 0.11 RMB in 2024, increasing to 0.18 RMB in 2025, 0.22 RMB in 2026, and 0.24 RMB in 2027 [2] Business Structure - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with asset management contributing 20.8% of total income as of Q1-Q3 2025, up from less than 10% prior to the merger with Wanjia Fund. Brokerage income has slightly increased to 38.3% [27] - The company maintains a strong position in the brokerage business, holding a 36.95% market share in stock trading volume in Shandong as of 2024, and has expanded its client base significantly [53][55] Investment Logic - The dual drivers of capital and asset management are expected to solidify growth foundations and optimize profit structures. The 6 billion RMB capital increase is anticipated to inject critical momentum into business development and capital efficiency [8] - The company’s regional leadership provides a robust competitive advantage, with a stable client base supporting its wealth management and investment banking services [8] Key Assumptions - Brokerage and wealth management business is expected to maintain stable market share, with projected net income of 42.8 billion RMB in 2025, 45.2 billion RMB in 2026, and 47.3 billion RMB in 2027 [9] - Investment banking revenue is forecasted to be 5.93 billion RMB in 2025, 6.92 billion RMB in 2026, and 7.73 billion RMB in 2027, supported by a solid project pipeline [9] - Asset management revenue is projected to reach 23.5 billion RMB in 2025, driven by the growth of Wanjia Fund's management scale [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.43 RMB [1] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a regional leader in Shandong, leveraging its state-owned background to build a comprehensive financial service platform. The integration of Wanjia Fund has diversified its revenue structure, although overall return on equity (ROE) still requires improvement [6][7] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth driven by capital and asset management, with a significant 60 billion RMB capital increase expected to enhance business capabilities and valuation recovery [8] Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to reach 10,891 million RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 15%. However, it is expected to grow by 9% in 2025 and continue increasing in subsequent years [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 937 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a 48% decrease, but is anticipated to rebound by 51% in 2025 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.11 RMB in 2024, increasing to 0.18 RMB in 2025 [2] Business Structure - The asset management business has become a significant contributor, with its revenue share rising to 20.8% in 2025, while the brokerage business accounts for 38.3% [27] - The company has a strong foothold in the brokerage sector, holding a 36.95% market share in stock trading volume in Shandong as of 2024 [53] - The investment banking segment has faced challenges due to regulatory changes, but the company maintains a project reserve that supports future recovery [63][66] Growth Drivers - The integration of Wanjia Fund has propelled the asset management business, which now accounts for 5.4% of market share, surpassing the brokerage business [52] - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of traditional and wealth management services, enhancing customer engagement and expanding its client base [60] - The successful underwriting of an IPO for a new energy storage company marks a significant achievement in the investment banking sector, despite a general decline in project numbers [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (March 9 - March 13), most funding rates increased, large banks' average daily lending increased slightly, funds slightly de - leveraged; CD maturities increased, and most CD yields decreased; in the cash bond market, small and medium - sized banks were the main buyers, increasing holdings of 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds, large banks increased CD holdings, funds net - sold 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds and net - bought credit bonds within 3Y, securities firms sold bonds, and insurance companies increased holdings of 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - This week, there were 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, with a cumulative reverse repurchase injection of 176.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net liquidity withdrawal of 101.1 billion yuan. Next Monday, there will be 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases injected and 600 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing [8][11] - As of March 13, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.39%, 1.5%, 1.32%, and 1.46% respectively, with changes of 0.34BP, 1.13BP, 0.22BP, and 4.67BP compared to March 6 [8][13] - From March 9 - March 13, large banks' total lending scale was 29.68 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 6.2 trillion yuan and an average daily lending of 5.9 trillion yuan, a 0.01 - trillion - yuan increase from the previous week's average [8][18] - The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase was 8.57 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 8.75 trillion yuan, a 0.79% decrease from the previous week's average. The average daily overnight repurchase trading volume accounted for 91.1%, with a daily maximum of 92.4%, a 0.05 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week's average [8][19] 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit and Bills - This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank CDs increased, with a negative net financing amount. The total issuance was 845.89 billion yuan, an increase of 129.49 billion yuan from last week; the total maturity was 1008.2 billion yuan, an increase of 420.21 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing was - 162.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 290.72 billion yuan from last week [8][24] - By bank type, joint - stock banks had the highest CD issuance scale. By maturity type, 1Y CDs had the highest issuance scale [24] - As of March 13, most CD issuance rates of various banks decreased, and CD issuance rates of different maturities showed differentiation [31] - As of March 13, most Shibor rates decreased [33] - As of March 13, most yields of AAA - rated inter - bank CDs at maturity decreased [37] - As of March 13, most bill rates increased [39] 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - As of March 13, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 105.28% compared to March 6, at the 23.20% historical quantile level since 2021 [42] - As of March 13, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.6%, 210.7%, 130.5%, and 104% respectively, with changes of 0.08BP, - 20.93BP, 0.75BP, and - 0.23BP compared to March 6, at the 32%, 35%, 78%, and 1% historical quantile levels respectively [8][44] - As of March 13, the weighted average net - buying duration of funds slightly increased, and insurance companies continued to increase duration [8][46] - As of March 13, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.27 years to 3.02 years compared to March 6, at the 10% historical quantile level since 2025; the duration of short - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.21 years to 1.31 years, at the 16% historical quantile level since 2025 [50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments regarding the market-making qualifications for securities firms at the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), highlighting the regulatory feedback from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the ongoing efforts of various brokerages to expand their market-making capabilities [1][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Feedback - The CSRC provided feedback to Changjiang Securities, requesting updates on their authorization plan for market-making business at BSE, specifically regarding differentiated approval limits [2] - The CSRC also asked for clarification on what constitutes "major projects" in the decision-making process for market-making activities [2] - For Shanxi Securities, the CSRC requested details on staffing arrangements for market-making roles and the number of personnel in senior and assistant research positions [4] Group 2: Market-Making Business Expansion - Currently, there are 21 market makers at BSE, including major firms like CITIC Securities and smaller firms such as Guoyuan Securities [5] - The top five firms by the number of market-making activities are Guojin Securities (62), CITIC Securities (59), Galaxy Securities (53), Guotou Securities (53), and Industrial Securities (29) [5] - The CSRC has lowered the entry barriers for market-making qualifications at BSE to enhance market liquidity and attract more firms, with over 20 firms expected to qualify under the new criteria [6] Group 3: Future Plans of Securities Firms - Zhongtai Securities plans to use part of its funds from a private placement to support its market-making business, emphasizing its commitment to expanding in both the STAR Market and BSE [7] - Hongta Securities is actively applying for market-making qualifications at BSE and has passed initial assessments, indicating a strong intent to participate in this market [7] - Galaxy Securities is focusing on enhancing its market-making capabilities across various platforms, including BSE, to contribute to market liquidity and support technological innovation [7]

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 中泰证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）于 2025 年 9 月 24 日成功发 行了中泰证券股份有限公司 2025 年度第五期短期融资券（以下简称"本期短期 融资券"），本期短期融资券发行规模为人民币 20 亿元，票面利率为 1.74%， 短期融资券期限为 169 天，兑付日期为 2026 年 3 月 13 日。 2026 年 3 月 13 日，本公司兑付了本期短期融资券本息共计人民币 2,016,112,876.71 元。 特此公告。 中泰证券股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 13 日 2025年度第五期短期融资券兑付完成公告 中泰证券股份有限公司 证券代码：600918 证券简称：中泰证券 公告编号：2026-007 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Increase" with an expectation of a growth rate exceeding 10% relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [19]. Core Insights - The market has entered a consolidation phase, with the core observation variable being changes in risk appetite. The upcoming end of the Two Sessions may lead to a decrease in risk appetite, compounded by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising oil prices [3][11]. - The Wind All A Index has seen a decline of 2.3% over the past week, with small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 dropping 3.64% and mid-cap stocks by the CSI 500 falling 3.44% [3][9]. - The short-term market environment is characterized by a narrowing distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend [8][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Wind All A Index is currently in a consolidation phase, with a PE ratio at the 90th percentile, indicating a high valuation level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, suggesting a moderate valuation level [12][14]. - The market trend line is positioned around 6790 points, with a negative profit effect recently recorded at -0.1% [10][17]. Sector Allocation - The mid-term industry allocation model continues to recommend the technology sector, particularly focusing on commercial aerospace (satellite ETF 563230.SH) for rebound opportunities. The performance trend model highlights the importance of the computing-related industry chain (semiconductor equipment ETF 159516.SZ, communication ETF 515880.SH) and cyclical sectors (oil and gas ETF 159309.SZ, energy and chemicals ETF 159981.SH), as well as agriculture (agriculture ETF 562900.SH) [7][9][11]. - Additionally, a defensive strategy suggests short-term attention on bank ETFs [9][11]. Trading Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a 60% position in absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index, reflecting the current market conditions and valuation metrics [12][19]. - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with potential adjustments still in play, and a wait for trading volume to drop below 2 trillion is advised for a possible effective rebound [3][11].

- The report defines a timing system using the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) of the Wind All A Index to distinguish the overall market environment[3][8][10] - The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6784 points and the 120-day moving average at 6432 points, with the short-term moving average still above the long-term moving average[3][8][10] - The difference between the two moving averages is 5.47%, with the absolute value of the distance continuing to be greater than 3%[3][8][10] - The market trend line is around 6790 points, and the profitability effect has just turned negative at -0.1%, indicating the market has entered a volatile pattern[3][8][10] - The core observation variable in a volatile market pattern is the change in risk appetite[3][8][10] - The report suggests that the risk appetite may decrease as the Two Sessions come to an end next week, and the ongoing war in the Middle East and the sharp rise in oil prices will suppress risk appetite[3][8][10] - The market rebounded on Thursday and Friday with reduced volume, but the reduction in trading volume is still below the critical value of the model, indicating the possibility of a continuation of the decline[3][8][10] - The report recommends waiting for the trading volume to shrink below 2 trillion yuan to expect an effective rebound[3][8][10] - The mid-term industry allocation model, TWO BETA, continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on the oversold rebound opportunities in commercial aerospace (satellite ETF 563230.SH)[7][9][11] - The performance trend model suggests focusing on the computing power-related industrial chain (semiconductor equipment ETF 159516.SZ, communication ETF 515880.SH), as well as the cyclical (oil and gas ETF 159309.SZ, energy and chemical ETF 159981.SH) and agricultural (agriculture ETF 562900.SH) sectors[7][9][11] - In addition, the report suggests paying attention to the banking ETF in the short term under a defensive strategy[7][9][11] - The valuation indicators show that the PE of the Wind All A Index is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high level, and the PB is near the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[12] - Based on the short-term trend judgment, the report suggests an absolute return product with the Wind All A Index as the main stock allocation subject to maintain a 60% position[12]

证券代码：600918 证券简称：中泰证券 公告编号：2026-006 中泰证券股份有限公司 关于参与碳排放权交易获得中国证监会复函的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 近日，中泰证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到中国证券监督管理 委员会（以下简称"中国证监会"）《关于中泰证券股份有限公司参与碳排放权 交易有关意见的复函》（机构司函〔2026〕324 号，以下简称"复函"）。根据 复函，公司自营业务可在境内合法交易场所参与碳排放权交易。 公司将按照有关规定及复函要求，以服务实体经济，降低全社会减排成本， 推进经济向绿色低碳转型升级为目标，合规、审慎开展业务，并将相关业务纳入 全面风险管理体系，建立健全参与碳排放权交易的内部控制和风险管理机制。 特此公告。 中泰证券股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 5 日 1 ...