Core Viewpoint - The financial reports of China's three major oil companies, known as "Three Barrels of Oil," show a synchronized decline in overall performance for the first half of 2025, raising concerns in the industry [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) reported a net profit of 84.01 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) achieved a net profit of 21.48 billion yuan, a significant drop of 39.8% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) recorded a net profit of 69.53 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [2][3]. - The total profit of the three companies decreased by 29.05 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, averaging a loss of approximately 1.6 billion yuan per day [1]. Revenue and Price Trends - CNPC's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1,450.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with a Brent crude oil average price of $71.87 per barrel, down 14.5% from $84.06 per barrel in the previous year [2][3]. - Sinopec's revenue was 1,409.05 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share dropping by 40.2% [2][3]. - CNOOC's revenue was 207.61 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year [2][3]. Sales Volume and Pricing Impact - In the first half of 2025, half of CNPC's eight major export products saw a decline in sales volume, particularly in polypropylene, gasoline, and diesel [4]. - The average selling prices of key products, including crude oil and diesel, fell by 12.3% and 9.4%, respectively [4]. - Sinopec attributed its profit decline to falling crude oil and product prices, leading to reduced inventory profits and lower domestic gasoline and diesel sales [4]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The oil and gas extraction and refining sectors are experiencing a "triple decline" in revenue, profit, and import-export volume, indicating increased industry differentiation [5]. - The overall petrochemical industry reported a revenue of 77.7 trillion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, with a continued trend of "increased volume, decreased price" in imports and exports [6]. - The total production and consumption of refined oil products have declined for the first time, influenced by the rise of new energy vehicles and liquefied natural gas [8]. - Companies are accelerating the development of non-oil businesses, with Sinopec reporting a 17% increase in non-oil business profits [8][9]. - Looking ahead, CNPC anticipates continued downward pressure on international oil prices due to a relaxed supply-demand balance in the market [8].

免责声明 在本期债券的销售询价与簿记工作中，申万宏源充分调动销售资源，各部门积极协 调，高效配合 ，助力 国家管网 本期债券成功发行。 本期债券发行进一步深化了申 万宏源与国家管网的合作关系，为后续为其提供综合金融服务奠定了坚实基础。未 来，申万宏源将持续深化与 国家管网 的合作，继续以落实国家战略、服务实体经济 为核心， 以实际行动践行金融央企使命担当 。 2 025年 8月21 日，由申万宏源作为联席主承销商的 "国家石油天然气管网集团有 限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行科技创新短期公司债券(第一期)"成功发 行。本期债券发行规模6 0亿元，期限为 1年，票面利率1 . 59 %，全场倍数 4 . 6 倍。 本期债券是申万宏源首次 作为发行人 公司债券 联席主承销商为发行人提供 债券融资服务。 发行人是全国最大油气基础设施运营商，油气基础设施在全国天然气、原油、成品油运输 中发挥核心作用，承担"全国一张网"的建设主体责任和社会管网联通责任，统一负责全国 油气干线管网调度运行，承担油气应急保供协调责任。 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a revenue of 207.6 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing an 8% year-on-year decline, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.5 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [1] Industry Summary - Global oil demand is supported by seasonal factors such as summer travel and power generation, with increased refinery throughput in China, the US, and Europe [1] - Despite the demand support, CNOOC's actual production growth may be lower than targets due to ongoing overproduction and a weakening willingness for collaboration within the company [1] - The steady advancement of global renewable energy alternatives and the release of low-cost incremental production from regions like South America and Africa are also influencing the market [1] Price Forecast and Valuation - The firm maintains its Brent crude oil price forecasts at $68 per barrel for this year and $62 per barrel for next year [1] - Given CNOOC's high proportion of crude oil production, the company is significantly affected by falling oil prices [1] - The target price for CNOOC's A-shares is set at 34.75 yuan and for H-shares at 27.49 Hong Kong dollars, with a maintained "buy" rating based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 times for 2025 and 9 times [1]

Key Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the nutritional products sector, with New Hope Liuhe (002001.SZ) achieving a revenue of 11.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.76%, and a net profit of 3.603 billion yuan, up 63.46% [10] - The report emphasizes the robust performance of the amino acid market, particularly methionine, with prices rising to 22,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 12.98% [11] - The report notes the steady performance of the vitamin A and E segments, with revenue of 2.085 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, maintaining a net profit margin of 58% despite recent price declines [12] Company Analysis - New Hope Liuhe's nutritional products segment accounted for 64.86% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 47.79%, an increase of 11.93 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company has expanded its methionine production capacity to 460,000 tons per year, positioning it as the third-largest producer globally [11] - The vitamin segment's revenue is expected to remain stable, with recent price adjustments indicating limited further declines [12] Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with a 6.5% year-on-year decline in sales volume and a 4.0% decrease in sales area as of July 2025 [22] - The average price of new residential properties has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the housing market [23] - Recent policy relaxations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are expected to provide some support to the real estate market, although the overall outlook remains cautious [24] Financial Performance - The report indicates that Beike-W (02423.HK) achieved a revenue of 26 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, although net profit declined by 32% [28] - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) reported a revenue of 47.6 billion yuan, a 34.6% increase, but a net profit decline of 25.2% due to lower gross margins [31] - Zhou Dasheng (002867.SZ) experienced a 43.29% drop in revenue to 4.597 billion yuan, while net profit remained relatively stable, reflecting a 1.27% decline [32] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the non-bank financial sector is poised for growth, driven by a shift in deposit behaviors and increased demand for risk assets [25] - The overall market is in a recovery phase, with expectations of a gradual improvement in economic conditions and investment opportunities in various sectors [26] - The report maintains a positive outlook for companies with strong fundamentals and innovative product offerings, particularly in the nutritional and financial sectors [13][26]

Group 1 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) experienced a stock price increase of 1.18% on August 28, with a trading volume of 1.142 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, CNOOC had a financing buy-in amount of 131 million yuan, with a net financing purchase of 34.87 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The total financing and securities balance for CNOOC reached 1.819 billion yuan as of August 28, with the financing balance accounting for 2.34% of the circulating market value, which is above the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - CNOOC was established on August 20, 1999, and was listed on April 21, 2022, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and sales of crude oil and natural gas [2] - The company's revenue composition includes 84.57% from oil and gas sales, 13.11% from trading, and 2.32% from other businesses [2] - For the first half of 2025, CNOOC reported a revenue of 207.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.533 billion yuan, down 12.79% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - CNOOC has distributed a total of 224.335 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 176.364 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, CNOOC had 232,800 shareholders, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous period, with an average of 12,936 circulating shares per person, an increase of 5.50% [2][3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the tenth largest circulating shareholder, holding 5.94779 million shares as a new shareholder [3]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) achieved record high oil and gas net production in the first half of 2025 despite a decline in revenue and profit due to fluctuating international oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, CNOOC reported operating revenue of 207.608 billion yuan, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, and net profit of 69.533 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average Brent crude oil price fell by 15.1% year-on-year, impacting the company's financial results [2]. - Oil and gas sales revenue reached 171.7 billion yuan, with the main cost per barrel of oil equivalent remaining stable at 26.94 USD [2]. Group 2: Production Achievements - CNOOC's oil and gas net production reached 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, marking a 6% increase year-on-year and setting a historical record for the same period [1][2]. - Natural gas production was 14.64 billion cubic meters, reflecting a significant increase of 12% [1]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The board of CNOOC announced an interim dividend of 0.73 HKD per share (tax included), approximately 0.67 RMB, totaling around 31.602 billion RMB [1]. - The dividend payout ratio for the first half of 2025 was 45.5%, maintaining a high level compared to previous years [3]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - CNOOC is focusing on technological innovation and digital transformation, including advanced seismic data collection and processing technologies [3]. - The company has implemented AI-driven initiatives, with the "Deep Sea No. 1" smart gas field recognized as one of China's first excellent smart factories [3]. Group 5: Market Confidence - CNOOC's controlling shareholder announced a plan to increase holdings in the company's A-shares and H-shares, with a proposed investment of no less than 2 billion yuan and no more than 4 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 100.8 billion CNY in Q2 2025, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 33 billion CNY, down 17.6% year-on-year [1] - The significant growth in natural gas production is attributed to the full production of the "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project, with a year-on-year increase of 13.6% in natural gas production [2] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in unit depreciation, operating expenses, and management fees [3] - The average realized price of oil in Q2 2025 was 65.77 USD per barrel, down 19.7% year-on-year, but the discount to Brent crude has narrowed significantly [4] - Capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 57.6 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.8% year-on-year [5] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 128.3 billion CNY, 133.1 billion CNY, and 135.8 billion CNY respectively, with a PE ratio of 9.6 times based on the August 28, 2025 stock price [5] - The projected dividend yield for A/H shares is 4.8% and 7.1% respectively based on a dividend payout ratio of 45.5% [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s revenue for 2025 is estimated at 404.86 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.72% [6] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 128.31 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 6.98% compared to 2024 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.70 CNY [6]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) demonstrated resilience in profitability and steady progress in high-quality development despite international oil price fluctuations during the first half of 2025 [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - CNOOC's oil and gas sales revenue reached RMB 171.7 billion, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 69.5 billion [4][5]. - The company maintained a stable main cost of USD 26.94 per barrel, reflecting effective cost control measures [4][5]. - A mid-year dividend of HKD 0.73 per share (tax included) was declared by the board of directors [5]. Group 2: Production and Exploration - CNOOC achieved a net production of 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [3]. - The company made five new discoveries and successfully evaluated 18 oil and gas structures during the reporting period [3]. - Natural gas production saw a significant year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with the "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field expected to exceed an annual production capacity of 4.5 billion cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - CNOOC is committed to increasing domestic investments while actively seeking overseas investment opportunities [3]. - The company is focusing on technological innovation and digital transformation to enhance production efficiency and reduce natural decline rates in offshore oil fields [4]. - CNOOC is integrating oil and gas production with renewable energy initiatives, achieving significant results in clean production and energy efficiency [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to establish itself as a "century-old store" and is preparing for potential low oil price scenarios while seeking overseas acquisition opportunities [2][3]. - CNOOC plans to maintain strategic focus and ensure safety in production to achieve its annual targets and promote high-quality development in the marine energy sector [5].

Financial Performance - The company achieved oil and gas sales revenue of RMB 1717 billion[7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 695 billion[7] - Interim dividend is HKD 0.73 per share (including tax)[7] - Net production reached 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 6.1% increase year-over-year[29] - Natural gas production increased significantly by 12.0% year-over-year[29] - Free cash flow reached RMB 57 billion[69] Exploration and Production - Five new discoveries were made[7, 16] - Eighteen oil and gas bearing structures were successfully evaluated[7, 19] - Ten new projects commenced production[7, 32] Operational Highlights - Overseas net production increased by 2.8% year-over-year, reaching 118.1 million barrels of oil equivalent[30] - Domestic net production increased by 7.6% year-over-year, reaching 266.5 million barrels of oil equivalent[30] - The company consumed 500 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity[56] Financial Health - Total assets reached RMB 1119 billion, an increase of RMB 62.7 billion from the beginning of the period[73] - The asset-liability ratio was 29.5%, and the capital-liability ratio decreased to 8.4%[73]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the "Big Three" oil companies (China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation) has declined year-on-year due to the drop in international oil prices, but they have maintained high dividend payouts while focusing on cost reduction and business transformation [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the combined operating revenue of the three companies reached approximately 3.07 trillion yuan, with a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 175.01 billion yuan, both showing a decrease compared to the same period last year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to factors such as oil prices, pressure on refined oil product prices, and a decrease in oil and gas product sales [2][3]. - Specifically, China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation reported operating revenues of 1.45 trillion yuan, 1.41 trillion yuan, and 207.61 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 839.93 billion yuan, 214.83 billion yuan, and 695.33 billion yuan [3]. Oil Price Impact - The average international crude oil price fell by 14.7% year-on-year, with Brent crude averaging $71.7 per barrel [3]. - The average selling prices for crude oil for the three companies were $66.21, $67, and $69.15 per barrel, reflecting declines of 14.5%, 12.9%, and 13.9%, respectively [3]. Natural Gas Business Growth - The growth in natural gas sales has partially offset the negative impact of declining crude oil business for China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with sales revenues of 310.94 billion yuan (up 4.3%) and 27.75 billion yuan (up over 16%), respectively [4]. Production and Cost Management - China National Offshore Oil Corporation achieved a net production of nearly 385 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, while China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec reported production increases of 2.0% each [5]. - All three companies have focused on optimizing capital expenditures, with capital expenditures for the first half of the year being 64.23 billion yuan, 43.8 billion yuan, and 57.6 billion yuan, respectively, all showing a decrease compared to the same period last year [7]. Dividend Payouts - Despite the performance decline, the three companies maintained high dividend levels, with total dividends exceeding 82.5 billion yuan, including 40.27 billion yuan from China National Petroleum Corporation, 10.67 billion yuan from Sinopec, and 31.60 billion yuan from China National Offshore Oil Corporation [8].