| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌 | 今日换手 | 5日均线 | 10日均线 | 5日较10日均线 | 最新价 | 较10日均线乖 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | 率（%） | （元） | （元） | 距离（%） | （元） | 离率（%） | | 002052 | 同洲 | -0.77 | 2.45 | 10.71 | 10.85 | -1.25 | 10.32 | -4.85 | | | 电子 | | | | | | | | | 002989 | 中天 | -0.77 | 2.14 | 32.36 | 32.71 | -1.07 | 31.12 | -4.87 | | | 精装 | | | | | | | | | 603983 | 丸美 生物 | -2.64 | 0.70 | 39.79 | 40.17 | -0.93 | 38.69 | -3.68 | | | 格科 | | | | | | | | | 688728 | 微 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 15.71 | 15.82 | -0.68 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3555.41 points, with a decline of 0.50% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 128.87 billion yuan [1] Technical Analysis - A total of 64 A-shares have seen their 5-day moving average cross below the 10-day moving average [1] - Notable stocks with significant distance between their 5-day and 10-day moving averages include: - Tongzhou Electronics: -1.29% - Marubi Biological: -0.95% - GeKao Micro: -0.69% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Key stock performances include: - Tongzhou Electronics (002052): Today's change -1.15%, 5-day MA at 10.70 yuan, 10-day MA at 10.84 yuan, with a distance of -1.29% [1] - Marubi Biological (603983): Today's change -2.84%, 5-day MA at 39.78 yuan, 10-day MA at 40.16 yuan, with a distance of -0.95% [1] - GeKao Micro (688728): Today's change 0.33%, 5-day MA at 15.71 yuan, 10-day MA at 15.82 yuan, with a distance of -0.69% [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Huatai Securities (601059): Today's change -0.86%, 5-day MA at 16.73 yuan, 10-day MA at 16.84 yuan, with a distance of -0.66% [1] - Jiabao (600622): Today's change -1.01%, 5-day MA at 3.08 yuan, 10-day MA at 3.10 yuan, with a distance of -0.64% [1] Additional Stock Movements - Other stocks with notable movements include: - Laka Laka (300773): Today's change -4.02%, 5-day MA at 27.62 yuan, 10-day MA at 27.73 yuan, with a distance of -0.39% [2] - Yongtai Technology (002326): Today's change 4.09%, 5-day MA at 13.25 yuan, 10-day MA at 13.29 yuan, with a distance of -0.32% [2] - Qijing (603677): Today's change -0.46%, 5-day MA at 19.91 yuan, 10-day MA at 19.96 yuan, with a distance of -0.25% [2]

[Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3短期波动中枢略有提升 机会等待经济数据明朗 ——如何看待 7 月政治局会议对债市的影响 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 31 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 [➢Table_Summary] 7 月政治局会议反映了外部环境急剧恶化已不再是中央的基准预期，上半年 GDP 增速的改善也使得政策的重点从稳增长向促改革、防风险转移，我们认 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is expected to benefit from the recent outbreak of Chikungunya fever, with a gradual recovery in vaccine sector performance and potential valuation adjustments due to innovation attributes [1] - The pharmacy sector is exploring new business models in the context of medical insurance reforms, with non-pharmaceutical products emerging as a potential breakthrough direction [1] - The diagnostics sector is anticipated to improve due to the digestion of pandemic-related baselines and new demand arising from the current health landscape [1] Group 2 - The medium to long-term focus is on "innovation + AI healthcare + recovery," with innovative drugs and medical devices receiving clear support from the National Healthcare Security Administration, emphasizing differentiated innovation [1] - AI healthcare is gaining attention due to the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, with focus areas including diagnostic paradigms and drug development [1] - Recovery lines include a rebound in medical equipment procurement, as well as a restoration of demand in CXO and upstream life sciences [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Innovation Drug ETF (517110) tracks the SHS Innovation Drug Index (931409), which selects listed companies involved in new drug research, production, and sales from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets to reflect the overall performance of innovative pharmaceutical companies [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation Drug Industry ETF Initiation Link C (014118) and Link A (014117) [1]

信达证券研报指出，药明康德TEDIS业务高景气带动业绩高增长，公司上调全年业绩指引。2025年H1 实现归母净利润约85.6亿元，同比增长101.9%；2025年Q2实现经调整归母净利润36.4亿元，同比增长 47.9%。认为公司化学业务增长强劲，主要驱动力来自于TEDIS业务高景气，考虑到多肽&寡核苷酸需 求依然旺盛，公司在手订单储备丰富，并计划2025年底将多肽固相合成产能提升至10万升以上，展望未 来1-2年我们推测TEDIS业务将继续保持高景气度。整体来看，公司海外客户收入占比约85%，已经是一 家充分全球化且具备全球竞争力的CRDMO龙头企业。我们认为，从2024年生物安全法案到2025年中美 关税冲突，市场对于地缘政治风险的担忧已经充分演绎，2025年H1公司来自美国客户的业务增速依然 强劲，再次打消市场疑虑，全球化趋势难以抵挡，公司在全球产业链中地位稳健。 ...

信达证券研报指出，东鹏饮料基地市场持续深耕，补水啦表现优秀。2025Q2公司实现主营业务收入 58.89亿元，同比+34.10%。从产品结构来看，东鹏特饮收入同比+18.8%至44.60亿元，电解质饮料补水 啦收入同比+190.05%至9.23亿元，补水啦以外的其他饮料收入同比+60.06%至5.03亿元，认为主要系果 之茶表现较好。在补水啦第二增长曲线下，Q2广东区域收入同比+19.08%至14.21亿元，广西区域收入 同比+31.17%至3.62亿元。公司在广东省内持续深耕，而省外不断优化经销体系、完善业务团队，认为 公司能量饮料有望在全国市场保持较好增长。展望2025年，该行认为在东鹏补水啦、果之茶凭借价格优 势和渠道优势的基础上，有望继续贡献收入增量。维持"买入"评级。 ...

信达证券研报指出，药明康德TEDIS业务高景气带动业绩高增长，公司上调全年业绩指引。2025年H1 实现归母净利润约85.6亿元，同比增长101.9%；2025年Q2实现经调整归母净利润36.4亿元，同比增长 47.9%。认为公司化学业务增长强劲，主要驱动力来自于TEDIS业务高景气，考虑到多肽&寡核苷酸需 求依然旺盛，公司在手订单储备丰富，并计划2025年底将多肽固相合成产能提升至10万升以上，展望未 来1-2年我们推测TEDIS业务将继续保持高景气度。整体来看，公司海外客户收入占比约85%，已经是一 家充分全球化且具备全球竞争力的CRDMO龙头企业。我们认为，从2024年生物安全法案到2025年中美 关税冲突，市场对于地缘政治风险的担忧已经充分演绎，2025年H1公司来自美国客户的业务增速依然 强劲，再次打消市场疑虑，全球化趋势难以抵挡，公司在全球产业链中地位稳健。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The low - inflation environment is the foundation of the bond bull market. The recent rise in commodity prices and equity market fluctuations have made investors worry about the change in the bond market trend. However, the long - term trend of the bond market may not have changed, and adjustments bring opportunities [2]. - The "anti - involution" policy is a structural reform. Although it aims to address over - capacity and boost inflation in the long run, the current implementation may have short - term negative impacts on the economy and may not be conducive to the sustainable recovery of inflation [2]. - The recent fluctuations in the bond market are mainly due to the "anti - involution" policy, the rise in commodity prices, and short - term disturbances in the capital market such as the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The central bank is likely to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Demand - Driven Investment Policies Cannot Change the Low - Inflation State - In Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and the cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year reached 5.3%. However, due to the decline in inflation, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 dropped to 3.9%, a new low since the pandemic. This may be the reason for the "anti - involution" policy [6]. - Since 2018, China's core CPI has been in a downward trend, especially after 2021, remaining below 1%, which may be affected by the decline of the real estate market. Overseas experience shows that low - inflation environments in major developed economies are usually triggered by demand - side shocks [11]. - China's real estate and urban investment platforms absorbed a large amount of financial resources before 2021. After the real estate market declined, these sectors faced debt risks. The policies to address these risks have limited short - term impact on demand [16]. - In the demand side, measures such as development - oriented policy financial instruments in 2022 and additional treasury bond issuance in 2023 aimed at major project construction. However, they could not fully offset the impact of the decline in urban investment financing on infrastructure investment. Manufacturing investment has become a new driver of stable growth, but it has also led to over - capacity and low inflation [21]. 3.2. The Intention and Alienation of the "Anti - Involution" Policy - The low - inflation state in China is closely related to over - capacity in the manufacturing industry, which is the background for the "anti - involution" policy. The capital expenditure growth rate of manufacturing listed companies has been declining, and the over - capacity may be due to local government intervention [25]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission on July 1, 2025, can be regarded as the top - level plan for "anti - involution", aiming to address over - capacity by constraining local government behavior. However, the current implementation focuses on short - term inflation through measures like production restrictions and price alliances, which may not lead to sustainable inflation recovery [27]. - Different from the 2015 supply - side reform, the current over - capacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors, and it is more difficult to clear through administrative orders. Without demand - side support, the price increase caused by production restrictions may be short - term [29]. 3.3. Inflation Priority Increase Does Not Justify Central Bank Tightening; Capital Market Fluctuations Are Affected by Short - Term Factors - The recent tightening of the capital market and the central bank's OMO net withdrawal have made investors worry about the change in monetary policy. However, considering the policy goal of boosting inflation, the central bank has no reason to tighten in the short term [33]. - The freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange has affected the capital market. For example, the 6288 billion yuan frozen for the online issuance of Dingjia Precision on July 22 has caused fluctuations in the capital market. After the funds were unfrozen on July 24, large - scale transfers may have reduced banks' willingness to lend, but the central bank's net withdrawal has increased market concerns [37]. - The central bank is likely to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment, and the short - term fluctuations in DR001 are expected to return to the 1.3% - 1.4% range [42]. 3.4. Short - Term Focus on Overshoot Rebound; Medium - Term Wait for Further Clarity of Macroeconomic Data - The long - term trend of the bond market may not have changed, and the short - term bond market may rebound. However, the bond market structure is still fragile after the rebound, and there is a possibility of a second shock [45]. - Currently, trading can be carried out with a volatile mindset. Short - term participation in market rebounds is possible, but profit - taking can be considered when the 10 - year bond yield falls below 1.7%. The greater opportunity in the bond market may come from the falsification of the inflation - boosting expectation of the "anti - involution" policy, which may require a decline in Q3 economic data or the disappointment of incremental policies after the Politburo meeting [46].

Group 1 - The second "Golden Unicorn Best Investment Advisor" selection is underway, focusing on identifying outstanding investment advisors in wealth management [1] - The weekly ranking data from July 14 to July 20 shows that Wang Weilong from Bank of China Securities achieved the highest weekly return of 20.22% in stock simulation trading [1][2] - In the ETF simulation trading group, Sun Baoyan from Xinda Securities topped the list with a weekly return of 10.81% [2][3] Group 2 - In the public fund simulation configuration group, Sun Baoyan also led with a weekly return of 10.91%, followed by He Weidong from Dongxing Securities with 5.88% [3][5] - The social service evaluation highlights top advisors based on their IP homepage and simulated portfolio heat values, with Mei Xingxia from Dongfang Securities leading in IP homepage heat value [11]

Group 1 - The total share of actively managed equity funds decreased to 28,063 billion units in Q2 2025, a decrease of 1,080 billion units compared to Q1 2025 [2][7] - The median net redemption rate for existing actively managed equity funds decreased from 4.03% in Q1 2025 to 3.57% in Q2 2025, a change of 0.46 percentage points [2][11] - The number of high-position public funds increased in Q2 2025, with 48.04% of all sample equity funds holding over 90% in stocks, up 5.38 percentage points from Q1 2025 [2][21] Group 2 - Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the financial and technology growth sectors, particularly in AI computing and banking [2][5] - The allocation to the communication sector saw the largest increase, moving into an overweight position and becoming one of the top five sectors [2][5] - The healthcare and military sectors also received significant increases in allocations, aligning with the performance of innovative drugs and military stocks in Q2 2025 [2][5] Group 3 - The allocation to mid-cap stocks (500 billion to 2 trillion) increased by 2.63 percentage points, while the allocation to stocks over 2 trillion decreased significantly [2][53] - The actively managed equity funds focused on increasing their holdings in the ChiNext board while reducing their positions in the main board and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][35] - The concentration of holdings in industries and individual stocks decreased, with the top three industries' share rising to 38.12% in Q2 2025, while the top five and top ten industries' shares decreased [2][51]