--- 上海银行 2024 年年报点评 事件： [Table_Summary] 上海银行发布 2024 年年报，全年实现营业收入 529.86 亿元，同比增长 4.79%，实现归母净利润 235.60 亿元，同比增长 4.50%。其中，第四季度 实现营业收入 134.44 亿元，同比增长 19.06%，实现归母净利润 59.73 亿 元，同比增长 14.86%。全年加权平均 ROE 为 10.01%，同比下降 0.35 个 百分点。 点评： [Table_Info1] 上海银行(601229) 城商行Ⅱ/银行 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 业绩稳健增长，资产质量提升 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 上海银行 沪深300 利息收入占比下降，投资收益显著提升。2024 年公司营收同比增长 4.79% 至 529.86 亿元，其中利息净收入 324.86 亿元，同比下降 7.62%，占营收 比例同比下降 8.23 个百分点至 61.31%，但仍主导公司营收；手续费及佣 金净收入为 39.59 亿元，同比下降 19 ...

Core Insights - The four municipalities in China—Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing—play a crucial role in the country's economic development and face various challenges amid economic restructuring and competitive pressures [1][19][20] - Beijing Bank, once a leader among city commercial banks, is experiencing stagnation in profit growth and increased competition from peers like Jiangsu Bank and Ningbo Bank [2][3][19] - Shanghai Bank is struggling with declining net interest income and has seen its ranking drop among city commercial banks, despite a notable increase in non-interest income [7][8][19] - Chongqing Bank shows potential for growth with a significant increase in total assets, but it faces challenges related to its business structure, heavily weighted towards corporate loans [12][19] - Tianjin Bank's performance is inconsistent, with significant fluctuations in profits and a declining personal loan portfolio, raising concerns about its future stability [15][19][20] Summary by Company Beijing Bank - As of December 2024, Beijing Bank's total assets reached 42,215.42 billion yuan, a 12.61% increase year-on-year, but net profit growth has slowed to 0.81% [2][19] - The bank's net interest margin has decreased from 1.95% in 2019 to 1.47% in 2024, indicating challenges in profitability [3][19] - The bank is exploring diversification into children's financial services, with over 2 million child financial clients [4][19] Shanghai Bank - Shanghai Bank reported total assets of 32,266.56 billion yuan as of December 2024, with a 4.6% year-on-year increase [7][19] - The bank's net interest income fell by 7.62% in 2024, leading to a net interest margin of only 1.17%, below the industry average [8][19] - Non-interest income grew significantly, with investment income increasing by 94.42% in 2024, highlighting the bank's adaptability in financial markets [9][19] Chongqing Bank - Chongqing Bank's total assets reached 8,566.42 billion yuan, a 12.73% increase year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 2018 [12][19] - The bank's loan structure is heavily skewed towards corporate loans, with retail loan growth lagging at only 2.81% [12][19] - The bank's net interest margin was reported at 1.35%, indicating a need for improvement in profitability [13][19] Tianjin Bank - Tianjin Bank's total assets were 9,259.94 billion yuan as of December 2024, a 10.1% increase, but its net profit growth was only 1.1% [15][19] - The bank's personal consumption loan portfolio has declined significantly over the past five years, raising concerns about asset quality [17][19] - The bank's capital adequacy ratios have also decreased, indicating potential challenges in maintaining financial stability [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector and "Buy" for specific stocks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank [9][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the establishment of new monetary policy tools and emphasizes the importance of stabilizing and activating the capital market [12][18]. - Investment opportunities are identified in the banking sector, followed by securities and insurance [12][14]. - The overall performance of listed banks in Q1 2025 is stable, with a decline in non-performing loan ratios [12][13]. - The report notes a decrease in the scale of wealth management products, with a total of 29.14 trillion yuan, down 810 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [12][19]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - Listed banks reported a decline in non-performing loan ratios in Q1 2025, but some experienced net losses due to fluctuations in the bond market [2][12]. - The total scale of wealth management products decreased to 29.14 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.4% [12][19]. - The report recommends quality stocks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Chengdu Bank [3][14]. Securities Sector - The China Securities Association issued guidelines to prevent securities firms from manipulating profits through valuation adjustments [2][12]. - The report indicates that the performance of securities firms remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 16% for 2024 and 51% for Q1 2025 [12][19]. - The report highlights the acquisition bid by Ant Group's shareholder for a securities firm, indicating ongoing consolidation in the sector [12][18]. Insurance Sector - The report suggests focusing on companies with relatively stable balance sheets, as the net profits of major insurers like China Ping An and China Taiping have declined [2][12]. - The report notes that the growth of new business value (NBV) remains strong, driven primarily by the bancassurance channel [12][19].

以下文章来源于征探财经 ，作者征探君 征探财经 . 资本市场的征探君。把征探财经设置为星标，不会错过每篇文章哦～～ 来源丨征探财经 作者丨五仁 4月22日，上海银行（601229.SH）发布公告称，公司董事会收到董事长金煜的辞呈。因年龄原因，金煜辞去公司董事长、执行董事、董事会战略委 员会主任委员职务，辞任后不再担任公司任何职务。在新任董事长任职之前，由公司副董事长施红敏履行董事长及法定代表人职责。 同日，上海银行官方公众号上银微动态发文称，4月22日，上海银行召开领导班子调整宣布会顾建忠同志任上海银行股份有限公司党委书记，并提名 任董事长；金煜同志不再担任上海银行股份有限公司党委书记、董事长职务。 资料显示，金煜现年60岁，2015年6月出任上海银行董事长，至今已10年。顾建忠则是上海银行老将，曾在上海银行工作17余年，历任上海银行多 个部门高管；2018年底又出任上海农商行（601825.SH）行长，推动其在A股上市。 近几年，上海银行从曾经的城商行"二哥"滑落至第四，2022年、2023年其营收分别下滑5.54%、4.8%，到2024年才重回正增长。同时，上海银行 还多次被行政处罚，顾建忠执掌之下，上海 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to benefit from policy catalysts aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on real estate, consumer spending, and social welfare [3] - The report highlights that personal non-performing loans (NPLs) are a significant concern, with a notable increase in the disposal of personal loans, particularly consumer loans [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. NPL Transfer Statistics for Q1 2025 - The total NPL transfer listing scale reached 74.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 190.5%, with actual transaction volume at 48.3 billion yuan, up 138.8% year-on-year [1] - Joint-stock banks were the primary sellers of NPLs, with a transaction volume of 20.36 billion yuan, accounting for 42.2% of total NPLs [1] - Personal loans accounted for 76.7% of the NPLs, with a transaction volume of 37.04 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 761% [2] 2. Sector Insights - Short-term impacts from tariff policies may affect exports, but long-term expansionary policies are expected to support economic growth [3] - The report identifies specific banks to watch under the pro-cyclical strategy, including Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank [3] 3. Key Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the stock market was 1,146.755 billion yuan, an increase of 37.99 billion yuan week-on-week [4] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending was 1.80 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous week [4] - The issuance of non-monetary fund shares reached 24.579 billion, an increase of 4.103 billion week-on-week [4]

Core Insights - Beijing Bank and Shanghai Bank have maintained their positions in the top three of domestic city commercial banks by total assets, with Beijing Bank ranking first and Shanghai Bank third as of the end of 2024 [2][4][6] - Both banks reported revenue growth of approximately 4.8% in 2024, but Shanghai Bank's net profit growth of 4.4% surpassed Beijing Bank's modest increase of 0.6% [6][7] - The performance disparity is attributed to Shanghai Bank's superior cost control and financial investment strategies, which significantly contributed to its revenue growth [8][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, Beijing Bank's total assets reached 4.22 trillion yuan, while Shanghai Bank's total assets were 3.23 trillion yuan, with the latter's growth rate of 4.6% being the lowest among the top five city commercial banks [4][6] - Beijing Bank's revenue was 69.92 billion yuan and net profit was 25.89 billion yuan, while Shanghai Bank reported revenue of 52.99 billion yuan and net profit of 23.56 billion yuan [5][6] - The average net interest margin for Beijing Bank was 1.47%, while Shanghai Bank's was lower at 1.17%, indicating a competitive disadvantage for Shanghai Bank in interest income [7][11] Asset Quality and Risk Management - As of the end of 2024, Beijing Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.31%, higher than Shanghai Bank's 1.18%, although the latter faces potential recognition gaps exceeding 10 billion yuan [11][12] - Beijing Bank's credit impairment losses were 20.1 billion yuan, accounting for 28.8% of its revenue, while Shanghai Bank's losses were 12.45 billion yuan, representing 23.5% of its revenue [11][12] - The asset quality of both banks has shown improvement, but Shanghai Bank's approach to recognizing non-performing loans is more lenient compared to Beijing Bank [13] Operational Efficiency - In terms of employee efficiency, Shanghai Bank outperformed Beijing Bank, with per capita revenue and profit significantly higher [8][10] - Shanghai Bank's operating cost as a percentage of revenue was 23.8%, compared to Beijing Bank's 29.1%, highlighting better cost management at Shanghai Bank [10] - Both banks are investing in digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and risk management [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 11.93 [14]. Core Views - The company's net profit and revenue growth for 2024 are projected at 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, which is higher than previous expectations [1]. - The company is expected to continue its stable growth, with an improvement in hidden risks and a potential for valuation recovery [5]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is RMB 245 billion, RMB 258 billion, and RMB 273 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.0%, 5.4%, and 5.7% respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a year-on-year increase in net interest income of 4.7%, contrasting with a decline of 7.6% in 2024 [3]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.50 per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 31.22% [1]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for retail and corporate loans were 1.14% and 1.37%, respectively, indicating a slight improvement in corporate loan quality [4]. - The company has a provision coverage ratio of 271% as of Q1 2025, which is stable compared to the end of 2024 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67 for 2025, reflecting a stable outlook for the company's valuation [5]. - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is RMB 17.70, which supports the target PB ratio [5]. Market Position - The company's total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 4.6%, 2.1%, and 4.3% respectively by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company has maintained a stable growth in deposits, with an increase in the proportion of demand deposits [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Shanghai Bank (601229.SH) with a current stock price of 10.57 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - Shanghai Bank's revenue shows resilience with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in 2024 and 3.8% in Q1 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders grows by 4.5% and 2.3% respectively [3][6]. - The bank's total assets reached 3.27 trillion CNY by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with loans and deposits growing by 0.5% and 4.6% respectively [3][6]. - The profit distribution plan for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 2.20 CNY per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend rate of approximately 31.22% [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: - Operating net income for 2024 is projected at 52.99 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 23.56 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 4.5% increase [5]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - The annualized weighted average ROE for 2024 and Q1 2025 is projected at 10.01% and 10.64% respectively [3][5]. - **Asset Quality**: - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 1.18% as of Q1 2025, with a slight increase in the provision coverage ratio to 271% [7][9]. - **Dividend Yield**: - The dividend yield is highlighted at 4.73%, emphasizing the stock's value in terms of dividends [6][7]. Business Strategy and Outlook - Shanghai Bank is focusing on key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, leveraging its geographical advantages to ensure stable income sources [6][7]. - The bank aims to enhance its competitive edge by concentrating on consumer finance, wealth management, and pension finance, particularly in retail customer segments [6][7]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected EPS of 1.72 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 1.92 CNY respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [6][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows a slight positive growth, with revenue increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed by 0.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with a deceleration of 2.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][4] - The bank's net interest margin improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, reaching 1.14% in Q1 2025, an increase of 11 basis points from Q4 2024, primarily due to a reduction in funding costs [3][4] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.18% at the end of Q1 2025, consistent with the end of 2024, indicating an improvement in asset quality [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 13,597 million, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [13] - The net interest income for Q1 2025 was 8,324 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [13] - The bank's total assets reached 3,270,765 million at the end of Q1 2025, marking a 3.7% increase year-on-year [13] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 31.22%, which is an increase of 0.54 percentage points compared to the mid-2024 payout ratio and 1.16 percentage points compared to the 2023 payout ratio [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 24,091 million, with a year-on-year growth of 2.25% [12][14] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.43 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.70 for 2025, indicating an upside potential of 18% from the current price [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company's net profit and revenue growth for 2024 are projected at 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, which is higher than previous expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.50 CNY per share for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 31.22% [1] - The company's asset quality remains stable, with improvements in forward-looking risk indicators [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets, loans, and deposits are expected to grow by 4.6%, 2.1%, and 4.3%, respectively [2] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a year-on-year increase in net interest income of 4.7%, supporting revenue growth [3] - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected at 24.495 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.0% [31] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for retail and corporate sectors at the end of 2024 is 1.14% and 1.37%, respectively, indicating a slight improvement in corporate NPLs [4] - The company has a provision coverage ratio of 271% as of the first quarter of 2025, which is stable compared to the end of 2024 [4] Valuation - The report assigns a target price of 11.93 CNY for 2025, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67 [5] - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 17.70 CNY, with a corresponding PB of 0.60 [5] - The company’s performance is expected to continue to improve, leading to a potential valuation recovery [5]