--- 上海银行 2024 年年报点评 事件： [Table_Summary] 上海银行发布 2024 年年报，全年实现营业收入 529.86 亿元，同比增长 4.79%，实现归母净利润 235.60 亿元，同比增长 4.50%。其中，第四季度 实现营业收入 134.44 亿元，同比增长 19.06%，实现归母净利润 59.73 亿 元，同比增长 14.86%。全年加权平均 ROE 为 10.01%，同比下降 0.35 个 百分点。 点评： [Table_Info1] 上海银行(601229) 城商行Ⅱ/银行 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 业绩稳健增长，资产质量提升 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 上海银行 沪深300 利息收入占比下降，投资收益显著提升。2024 年公司营收同比增长 4.79% 至 529.86 亿元，其中利息净收入 324.86 亿元，同比下降 7.62%，占营收 比例同比下降 8.23 个百分点至 61.31%，但仍主导公司营收；手续费及佣 金净收入为 39.59 亿元，同比下降 19 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 11.93 [14]. Core Views - The company's net profit and revenue growth for 2024 are projected at 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, which is higher than previous expectations [1]. - The company is expected to continue its stable growth, with an improvement in hidden risks and a potential for valuation recovery [5]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is RMB 245 billion, RMB 258 billion, and RMB 273 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.0%, 5.4%, and 5.7% respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a year-on-year increase in net interest income of 4.7%, contrasting with a decline of 7.6% in 2024 [3]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.50 per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 31.22% [1]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for retail and corporate loans were 1.14% and 1.37%, respectively, indicating a slight improvement in corporate loan quality [4]. - The company has a provision coverage ratio of 271% as of Q1 2025, which is stable compared to the end of 2024 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67 for 2025, reflecting a stable outlook for the company's valuation [5]. - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is RMB 17.70, which supports the target PB ratio [5]. Market Position - The company's total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 4.6%, 2.1%, and 4.3% respectively by the end of 2024 [2]. - The company has maintained a stable growth in deposits, with an increase in the proportion of demand deposits [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Shanghai Bank (601229.SH) with a current stock price of 10.57 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - Shanghai Bank's revenue shows resilience with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in 2024 and 3.8% in Q1 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders grows by 4.5% and 2.3% respectively [3][6]. - The bank's total assets reached 3.27 trillion CNY by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with loans and deposits growing by 0.5% and 4.6% respectively [3][6]. - The profit distribution plan for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 2.20 CNY per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend rate of approximately 31.22% [3][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: - Operating net income for 2024 is projected at 52.99 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 23.56 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 4.5% increase [5]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - The annualized weighted average ROE for 2024 and Q1 2025 is projected at 10.01% and 10.64% respectively [3][5]. - **Asset Quality**: - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 1.18% as of Q1 2025, with a slight increase in the provision coverage ratio to 271% [7][9]. - **Dividend Yield**: - The dividend yield is highlighted at 4.73%, emphasizing the stock's value in terms of dividends [6][7]. Business Strategy and Outlook - Shanghai Bank is focusing on key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, leveraging its geographical advantages to ensure stable income sources [6][7]. - The bank aims to enhance its competitive edge by concentrating on consumer finance, wealth management, and pension finance, particularly in retail customer segments [6][7]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected EPS of 1.72 CNY, 1.82 CNY, and 1.92 CNY respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [6][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows a slight positive growth, with revenue increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed by 0.9 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with a deceleration of 2.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][4] - The bank's net interest margin improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, reaching 1.14% in Q1 2025, an increase of 11 basis points from Q4 2024, primarily due to a reduction in funding costs [3][4] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.18% at the end of Q1 2025, consistent with the end of 2024, indicating an improvement in asset quality [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 13,597 million, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [13] - The net interest income for Q1 2025 was 8,324 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [13] - The bank's total assets reached 3,270,765 million at the end of Q1 2025, marking a 3.7% increase year-on-year [13] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 31.22%, which is an increase of 0.54 percentage points compared to the mid-2024 payout ratio and 1.16 percentage points compared to the 2023 payout ratio [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 24,091 million, with a year-on-year growth of 2.25% [12][14] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.43 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.70 for 2025, indicating an upside potential of 18% from the current price [6][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company's net profit and revenue growth for 2024 are projected at 4.5% and 4.8%, respectively, which is higher than previous expectations [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.50 CNY per share for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 31.22% [1] - The company's asset quality remains stable, with improvements in forward-looking risk indicators [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets, loans, and deposits are expected to grow by 4.6%, 2.1%, and 4.3%, respectively [2] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a year-on-year increase in net interest income of 4.7%, supporting revenue growth [3] - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected at 24.495 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.0% [31] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for retail and corporate sectors at the end of 2024 is 1.14% and 1.37%, respectively, indicating a slight improvement in corporate NPLs [4] - The company has a provision coverage ratio of 271% as of the first quarter of 2025, which is stable compared to the end of 2024 [4] Valuation - The report assigns a target price of 11.93 CNY for 2025, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.67 [5] - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 17.70 CNY, with a corresponding PB of 0.60 [5] - The company’s performance is expected to continue to improve, leading to a potential valuation recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Bank emphasizes its commitment to providing stable and reasonable returns to shareholders, implementing a new profit distribution plan that combines interim and final dividends, reflecting confidence in its operational performance [1][2] Group 1: Dividend Policy - In 2024, Shanghai Bank's total cash dividend amount increased by 8.70% year-on-year, reaching a cash dividend ratio of 31.22%, up by 1.16 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The bank plans to distribute an interim cash dividend of 2.80 yuan (before tax) per 10 shares and a final cash dividend of 2.20 yuan (before tax) per 10 shares, totaling over 6 billion yuan for the year [1] - Since its listing in 2016, the bank has distributed over 48 billion yuan in ordinary share dividends, which is 4.5 times its total financing amount [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Shanghai Bank achieved an operating income of 52.986 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.560 billion yuan, up by 4.50% [2] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.18%, marking two consecutive years of decline, while the proportion of loans overdue by more than 90 days fell to 84.14% [2] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 10.35%, indicating enhanced risk resilience [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Shanghai Bank aims to maintain an annual cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% over the next three years, fostering a positive interaction with the capital market through stable returns [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Shanghai Bank's significant growth in inclusive finance, with a focus on small and micro enterprises, achieving a loan issuance of 216.755 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.62% [1] - The year-end balance of inclusive loans reached 165.716 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.31% compared to the previous year, and the number of served clients exceeded 500,000, marking a 35.19% increase [1] - Shanghai Bank is committed to innovation-driven strategies, enhancing its small and micro enterprise service framework, and optimizing product offerings to meet diverse financing needs [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Shanghai Bank reported an operating income of 52.986 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.560 billion yuan, up 4.50% [2] - The bank's asset quality improved, with a non-performing loan ratio decreasing to 1.18%, marking two consecutive years of decline, and the proportion of loans overdue by more than 90 days fell to 84.14% [2] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased to 10.35%, indicating a continuous enhancement in risk resistance capabilities [2]

Group 1 - Shanghai Bank (601229) is increasing its focus on technology finance in 2024, with loans to technology enterprises growing by 26.09% year-on-year [1] - The number of loan clients in the technology sector increased by 35.09% compared to the end of the previous year, serving over 4,300 high-tech enterprises and nearly 3,000 specialized and innovative enterprises [1] - The bank has established special research teams to support ten high-growth sectors, including low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, and innovative pharmaceuticals, implementing targeted services [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, Shanghai Bank's total assets reached 32,266.56 billion yuan, an increase of 4.57% from the previous year [2] - The total amount of customer loans and advances was 14,057.56 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.09% year-on-year [2] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.18%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous year, marking a continuous decline for two consecutive years [2]

Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 52.986 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%[16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.560 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.50%[16] - Total assets at the end of the year reached 3,226.656 billion RMB, an increase of 4.57% compared to the previous year[16] - Net interest income for 2024 was RMB 32,486,088 thousand, a decrease of 7.62% from RMB 35,164,078 thousand in 2023[51] - Net commission and fee income decreased by 19.46% to RMB 3,958,816 thousand in 2024 from RMB 4,915,199 thousand in 2023[51] - Other non-interest income increased by 57.75% to RMB 16,540,646 thousand in 2024 compared to RMB 10,485,197 thousand in 2023[51] - Total operating income for 2024 was RMB 52,985,550 thousand, reflecting a growth of 4.79% from RMB 50,564,474 thousand in 2023[51] - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 23,560,448 thousand in 2024, up 4.38% from RMB 22,572,244 thousand in 2023[51] - Basic earnings per share increased by 4.58% to RMB 1.60 in 2024 from RMB 1.53 in 2023[51] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.18%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, marking two consecutive years of decline[16] - The overdue loans over 90 days and non-performing loan ratio decreased to 84.14%, down by 10.48 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year[20] - The company is focusing on enhancing risk management and compliance systems, with a data-driven comprehensive risk management framework in place[26] - The company’s focus on credit risk management has led to a stable improvement in asset quality, with a decrease in the proportion of attention-class loans to 2.06%[131] - The overall risk remains controllable, with adequate provisions for impairment losses in place[138] - The company has implemented targeted control measures for overdue loans and developed plans to mitigate risks, ensuring overall risk remains manageable[150] Loan Growth and Sector Focus - Loans in the Yangtze River Delta region amounted to 636.643 billion RMB, up 6.96% year-on-year, accounting for over 70% of the company's total loans[17] - Loans to technology enterprises, inclusive finance, and green loans grew by 13.84%, 13.31%, and 16.38% respectively compared to the previous year[17] - The total amount of loans to technology enterprises reached CNY 229.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.09%, with a balance of CNY 159.73 billion, up 13.84% from the previous year[174] - Inclusive finance loans amounted to CNY 216.76 billion, growing by 17.62%, with a year-end balance of CNY 165.72 billion, an increase of 13.31%[174] - Green loans issued totaled CNY 84.13 billion, a 1.36% increase, with a year-end balance of CNY 120.29 billion, up 16.38%[175] Capital and Funding - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio reached 10.35% by the end of 2024, an increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year, marking three consecutive years of growth[20] - Capital adequacy ratio stood at 14.21%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year[55] - The company's leverage ratio improved to 6.81% as of December 31, 2024, compared to 6.54% at the end of the previous year[164] - The net stable funding ratio as of December 31, 2024, is 109.89%, compared to 109.09% on September 30, 2024[163] - The liquidity coverage ratio is 167.73%, with qualified liquid assets amounting to CNY 261,561,043 thousand and net cash outflows over the next 30 days at CNY 155,945,852 thousand[161] Customer Engagement and Market Position - The pension customer average AUM increased by 7.82% year-on-year, maintaining the company's leading market share in Shanghai[17] - The company served over 600,000 inclusive finance clients, representing a growth of 35%[25] - The company maintained the largest market share in pension clients in the Shanghai region[42] - The total customer base reached 303,700, an increase of 5.34% year-on-year; company loan issuance amounted to 593.012 billion yuan[186] - The company is committed to enhancing its retail business, particularly in pension finance and wealth management, to improve customer experience[39] Innovation and Technology - Financial technology investment accounted for 5% of operating income, indicating a commitment to enhancing technological capabilities[19] - The company has implemented AI infrastructure, including the DeepSeek model, to improve operational efficiency and customer service[18] - Shanghai Bank is advancing its digital transformation to improve operational efficiency and customer service through data-driven management[41] - The bank aims for high-quality development by strengthening risk management and compliance systems, with a focus on digital transformation and AI applications[29] Corporate Social Responsibility - The company donated 37.67 million yuan throughout the year, supporting key areas such as rural revitalization, culture, sports, education, and healthcare[21] - The annual cash dividend payout ratio is expected to be 31.22%, maintaining an increase for two consecutive years, with a total cash dividend exceeding 48 billion yuan since its listing[21] - The company plans to implement a mid-term dividend of 2.80 yuan per 10 shares and a final cash dividend of 2.20 yuan per 10 shares for 2024[21]

Core Insights - The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is a crucial intersection of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, comprising Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces, with seven listed city commercial banks [1] - In 2024, the total asset scale of these seven banks reached 17.72 trillion yuan, with Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Ningbo Bank each exceeding 3 trillion yuan [1][3] - All seven banks reported positive growth in revenue and net profit, with asset quality remaining strong, as six banks maintained non-performing loan ratios below 1% [1][18] Asset Scale and Growth - Jiangsu Bank's total assets reached 39,520.42 billion yuan, a 16.12% increase from the previous year [3][5] - Shanghai Bank's total assets were 32,266.56 billion yuan, growing by 4.57% [3][5] - Ningbo Bank's total assets amounted to 31,252.32 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.25% [3][5] - Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Huishang Bank surpassed 20 trillion yuan in assets, while Suzhou Bank had the smallest asset scale at nearly 700 billion yuan [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - Jiangsu Bank led in revenue with 808.15 billion yuan, marking an 8.78% increase [10][12] - Ningbo Bank followed with 666.31 billion yuan in revenue, up 8.19% [10][12] - Nanjing Bank achieved a revenue growth rate of 11.32%, the only bank with double-digit growth [10][12] - Net profit for Jiangsu Bank exceeded 300 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.76% [13][12] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for Jiangsu Bank was 0.89%, while Ningbo and Hangzhou Banks had the lowest at 0.76% [18][19] - Shanghai Bank had the highest non-performing loan ratio at 1.18% [17][18] - The provision coverage ratios for most banks were robust, with Jiangsu, Nanjing, and Ningbo Banks exceeding 300% [20][18] Loan Distribution - Jiangsu Bank's loans in Jiangsu province accounted for 86.13% of its total loans, with significant portions also allocated to the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [7] - Nanjing Bank's loans were primarily distributed in Jiangsu, with 84.92% of its loans in the province [7] - Huishang Bank's loans were predominantly in Anhui, making up 88.87% of its total [8]