Core Viewpoint - Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable (06869) has seen a decline of over 30% from its September peak of 65 HKD, with a current price of 45.06 HKD, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability due to recent bidding results from China Mobile [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The stock has dropped over 4%, with a trading volume of 676 million HKD [1] - The current price is reported at 45.06 HKD, down 3.92% [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Nomura's report indicates that the rise in Changfei's stock earlier this year was driven by expectations of AI data centers adopting high-end products like G.654E and hollow fiber [1] - The report highlights a decline in market share and average selling prices for Changfei, as indicated by recent fiber optic bidding results from China Mobile, which may pressure profitability starting from Q3 of this year [1] - Nomura has downgraded its rating from "Buy" to "Neutral," while significantly raising the target price from 18.6 HKD to 52 HKD [1]

Group 1 - The company, Zhao Chi Co., has stated that as of October 9, it has not reached any cooperation plans with Changfei Fiber for factory construction [2]

Core Insights - The communication equipment sector experienced a rise of 0.54% on October 9, with GuoDun Quantum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - GuoDun Quantum (688027) closed at 398.79, with a significant increase of 13.62% and a trading volume of 64,800 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 2.581 billion [1] - Guanghe Tong (300638) saw a rise of 10.77%, closing at 33.64 with a trading volume of 926,600 shares, totaling 3.101 billion [1] - Other notable performers included: - Shijia Technology (002796) up 9.99% at 21.46 [1] - Yongding Co. (600105) up 9.99% at 13.98 [1] - ZTE Corporation (000063) up 9.51% at 49.98 with a trading volume of 4,508,700 shares, totaling 22.121 billion [1] Market Trends - The overall communication equipment sector saw a net outflow of 804 million from institutional funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.257 billion [2] - The sector's performance indicates a mixed sentiment among different types of investors, with retail investors showing confidence despite institutional outflows [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market is expected to trend upward after a period of consolidation, focusing on three main directions: policy catalysis, economic recovery, and benefits from interest rate cuts [4][14][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government shutdown and its potential impact on asset volatility, while also noting the relatively mild market reaction so far [15][16] - Domestic policies are expected to provide short-term support, with significant attention on the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming APEC meeting for potential U.S.-China progress [16][17] Group 2 - The report identifies ten key stocks for October, including companies from various sectors such as electronics, automotive, and new energy, with no specific ranking among them [5][12] - The electronic sector features companies like Zhongwei Company and Fudan Microelectronics, which are expected to benefit from advancements in technology and market demand [18][22] - The automotive sector includes Moulding Technology, which is positioned to gain from increasing demand for lightweight and customized exterior parts due to the shift towards electric vehicles [34][36] Group 3 - In the electronics sector, Zhongwei Company reported a significant revenue increase of 36.46% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, although net profit saw a decline due to increased costs [18][19] - Fudan Microelectronics is facing intense competition in the market, leading to a slight decrease in revenue and profit, but is advancing its FPGA product line to maintain a competitive edge [22][23] - Moulding Technology is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to new projects with major automotive clients, projecting revenues of 71.4 billion yuan for 2024 [32][34] Group 4 - The report indicates that Meihu Co. is diversifying into new energy vehicles while maintaining strong growth in its traditional pump business, with a projected revenue increase for 2025 [39][40] - Shenzhen New Star is experiencing a significant recovery in performance, with a projected revenue of 15 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by a rebound in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices [43][44] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. reported a record net profit of 8.67 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and rising prices of copper and cobalt [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on improving its main business and expanding the application of new optical fiber technologies, driven by the growing demand from data centers and AI construction [4][6]. - Despite facing pressure in the telecom market, the company is seizing structural opportunities by expanding into new applications such as metropolitan area networks and direct connections for computing clusters [5]. - The company is making forward-looking investments in hollow-core optical fibers, which have the potential to become a core technology for next-generation optical networks [6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.71% to 296 million yuan [4]. - The company’s non-deductible net profit increased by 14.75% to 138 million yuan [4]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 14.193 billion yuan in 2025 to 18.008 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.23 yuan to 2.04 yuan [7][11]. Market Dynamics - The demand for standard single-mode optical fibers in the telecom market is declining, leading to a decrease in average prices [5]. - The company won a significant share of a centralized procurement by China Mobile for G.654.E optical cables, amounting to 3.1386 million core kilometers, which is expected to boost business growth [5]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for optical fiber products driven by the expansion of data centers and advancements in AI technology [4][9]. - The hollow-core optical fiber technology is anticipated to be a game-changer, with the company making substantial progress in its research and commercialization [6].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 長飛光纖光纜股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月8日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06869 | 說明 | 長飛光纖光纜 | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 351,566,794 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 351,566,794 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 351,566,794 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 351,566,794 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | ...

智通财经APP获悉，长飞光纤光缆(06869)跌近5%，昨日尾盘曾拉升超10%，截至发稿，跌4.86%，报 49.76港元，成交额1.73亿港元。 另值得注意的是，9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.通过大宗交易出售长飞光纤光缆3759.53万股H股，占总 股本5%，减持后H股数量为零。截至今年3月底，DrakaComteqB.V.和中国华信邮电科技有限公司并列长 飞光纤第一大股东，持股比例都是23.73%。4月17日至9月19日，Draka Comteq B.V.累计减持长飞光纤H 股近1.8亿股，占公司总股本的23.73%。 消息面上，野村发布研报称，公司的股价自2025年1月以来已上涨295%(同期恒生指数上涨36.9%)，主 要因为市场对人工智能资料中心(AIDC)、G.654E和空芯光纤(HCF)等高端产品的需求强劲。该行表示， 电信市场持续疲软，或会抵消该公司在AI基础设施市场的扩张。中国移动6月的光纤招标表明，市占率 下降和平均售价下降，可能会对长飞光纤光缆2025年第三季盈利造成压力。因此，该行将2025财年收入 及盈利预测下调1%及23%，但将2026-27财年收入和盈利预测分别上 ...

该行表示，电信市场持续疲软，或会抵消该公司在AI基础设施市场的扩张。中国移动(00941)6月的光纤 招标表明，市占率下降和平均售价下降，可能会对长飞光纤光缆2025年第三季盈利造成压力。因此，该 行将2025财年收入及盈利预测下调1%及23%，但将2026-27财年收入和盈利预测分别上调5-11%及1- 24%，以反映2026年AI基础设施需求增强。 智通财经APP获悉，野村发布研报称，将长飞光纤光缆(06869)目标价从18.6港元上调180%至52港元， 反映有9.9%的上涨空间，评级由"买入"下调至"中性"。公司的股价自2025年1月以来已上涨295%(同期 恒生指数上涨36.9%)，主要因为市场对人工智能资料中心(AIDC)、G.654E和空芯光纤(HCF)等高端产品 的需求强劲。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Changfei Fiber Optics (601869) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 10%, attributed to positive market sentiment regarding its growth potential driven by AI infrastructure development [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - As of the latest report, Changfei Fiber Optics' stock price rose by 10.1% to HKD 52.1, with a trading volume of HKD 4.32 billion [1] - The company is recognized as a global leader in the supply of optical fiber preform, optical fibers, optical cables, and integrated solutions, maintaining the largest market share since 2016 [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The market perceives limited growth potential for the company; however, there is optimism that AI computing infrastructure will drive a new growth phase [1] - In the optical transmission sector, products such as multimode optical fibers for data centers and G.654.E optical fibers for backbone networks are experiencing rapid growth, with the company leveraging its first-mover advantage [1] - The diversification strategy is expected to open new growth avenues, with subsidiaries like Changxin Bochuang (300548) and Changxin Sheng showing strong competitive advantages in MPO, AOC, and high-speed copper cable sectors, potentially accelerating overseas client acquisition [1]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：小浪快报 9月30日，长飞光纤收跌4.46%，收盘价为100.84元，发生1笔大宗交易，合计成交量2万股，成交金额 201.68万元。 第1笔成交价格为100.84元，成交2.00万股，成交金额201.68万元，溢价率为0.00%，买方营业部为中国 国际金融股份有限公司北京建国门外大街证券营业部，卖方营业部为中国国际金融股份有限公司深圳分 公司。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生2笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为422.28万元。该股近5个交易日累 计下跌14.01%，主力资金合计净流出4.3亿元。 ...