Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - The current profitability of the coal industry is better than that before the supply-side reform in 2016, but coking coal profitability is lower than thermal coal, indicating a stronger necessity for reform [7][8]. - The "anti-involution" measures in the coal industry are expected to primarily involve production limits and capacity exits, which could raise the price baseline in a favorable demand environment. However, the current demand pressure is greater than in 2016 [6][7]. - Short-term price elasticity may be limited due to high inventory and suppressed demand, but unexpected demand improvements could lead to price rebounds [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 1.67%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 11th out of 32 industries [21]. - As of July 4, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 623 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 3 RMB/ton [21]. Thermal Coal Analysis - Daily coal consumption in 25 provinces reached 573.3 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.3% [22]. - The inventory of power plants was 125.22 million tons, with a usable days count of 21.8 days, a decrease of 0.4 days week-on-week [22]. Coking Coal Analysis - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was stable at 1230 RMB/ton as of July 4 [21]. - Coking coal inventory increased by 0.55% week-on-week, indicating a need to monitor supply recovery and seasonal demand [22][53]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include long-term stable profit leaders such as China Coal Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8]. - Growth-oriented companies include Electric Power Investment and New Hope Liuhe, while flexible growth stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining and Huayang Co [8].

高温催动日耗抬升，去库深化煤价走强 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 左前明：能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 高温催动日耗抬升，去库深化煤价走强 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Sum ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 夏季或高温少雨，煤炭去库有望延续 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 27 周周报（20250705） 投资要点： | 风险提示 | 19 | | --- | --- | | 4. | | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 煤炭：预计夏季降水少气温高，电煤需求旺盛。据国家气候中心数据，2025 年上半 年同比 2024 年同期，我国中东部气温偏高，降水量整体小幅偏少。展望夏季，据国 家气候中心数据，预计长江上游岷江流域、中下游大部降水偏少，夏季水电出力或 同比下降，此外，考虑东部及南部沿海经济 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies including China Qinfa, China Coal Energy, and AnYuan Coal Industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The global coal production is expected to reach a historical high of 924.2 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to expand production, with India and Indonesia increasing output by 7% and 8% respectively [7]. - Global coal demand is projected to grow to 165.06 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, demand in Europe is declining rapidly, with a decrease of 7% [7]. - The report highlights the stability of coal prices, with Newcastle port coal prices at $110.85 per ton, up 4.35 dollars per ton (+4.08%) from the previous week [34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report indicates that coal prices at European ARA ports have risen to $107.25 per ton, an increase of 3.90 dollars per ton (+3.77%) [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal production and demand trends, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving growth [7]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and the turnaround story of China Qinfa. Other notable mentions are Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal Energy, which show potential for growth [3][6]. - The report also suggests keeping an eye on AnYuan Coal Industry, which is undergoing significant changes in its shareholder structure and asset swaps [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that global coal trade volume is expected to reach 35.99 EJ in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter, accounting for 29.8% of total exports [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal price movements, indicating a stable trend in shipping coal prices [30].

2025 年 7 月 5 日 行业研究 "反内卷"叠加旺季来临，煤价板块底部或已出现 ——煤炭开采行业周报（2025.6.30~2025.7.6） 要点 "反内卷"叠加旺季来临，煤价板块底部或已出现。（1）7 月 1 日，中共中央 总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财经委员会主任习近平主持召开中央 财经委员会第六次会议，会议提出，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导 企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出；（2）本周 28 个主要城市平均气 温为 30.56 ℃，已进入季节性高温区间，夏季用煤旺季已经来临；（3）在基本 面、事件共同驱动下，近期焦煤期货价格、煤炭板块均止跌回升。 本周港口煤价小幅反弹，海外天然气价格回落。（1）本周（6.30-7.4）秦皇岛 港口动力煤平仓价（5500 大卡周度平均值）为 621 元/吨，环比+5 元/吨 （+0.88%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800 大卡）周度平均值为 475 元/吨，环比+1 元/吨（+0.21%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤 FOB 价格 （5500 大卡周度平均值）为 65 美元/吨，环比-1.89%；（4）欧洲天然气期货 结算价（D ...

Summary of China Coal Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Coal Energy - **Industry**: Coal and Energy Key Points Performance and Operations - Long-term contract fulfillment rates remain high, exceeding 90% in both Q1 and Q2, significantly better than some competitors whose rates dropped to around 50% due to market conditions [2][5][6] - Cost control measures are strict, with expectations to maintain low costs compared to industry standards, even during overall rising trends in the sector [2][9] - Production and operational status is stable, with favorable trends in the coal market, including a decrease in inventory due to increased consumption and power plant restocking [4][10] Price Forecasts - Coal prices are expected to remain at current levels or see slight increases, with no annual price falling below current levels [2][12] - The price center for coal in 2026 is anticipated to be slightly higher than in 2025, with coking coal prices expected to remain stable [2][13] Capital Expenditure and Projects - Capital expenditure for 2025 is planned at approximately 21 billion yuan, with future spending expected to range between 15 billion to 20 billion yuan annually, focusing on ongoing mining, chemical, power, and renewable energy projects [2][18][23] - Key projects, including the Libai and Weizigou coal mines, are expected to commence production by the end of 2026, with the Yulin Phase II coal chemical project also projected to be operational by the end of 2026 [2][23][24] Dividend Policy - The company adheres to a prudent dividend policy, increasing the cash dividend ratio to 35% for 2024, with potential for future increases, although specific figures remain uncertain [2][18][20][31] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about its growth potential, with several projects set to come online, indicating a clear growth trajectory for its core business [3][36] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a low debt ratio of around 40%, allowing for flexibility in capital allocation and investment opportunities [29][36] Risk Management - The company does not foresee production cuts or shutdowns due to current coal prices, which are above the cost threshold for operations [16] - The impact of safety regulations on production timelines has been acknowledged, with increased costs leading to delays in project completions [24] Additional Insights - The chemical segment remains stable, with historical profitability even during high-price years, supported by rising oil prices [17] - The company is exploring renewable energy projects, focusing on practical applications rather than high-profile initiatives, with current contributions to overall revenue being minimal [25] Analyst Sentiment - Guosheng Securities expresses a positive outlook on China Coal Energy, citing undervaluation and potential for price recovery, alongside a favorable asset-liability situation and growth prospects from upcoming projects [3][36]

Metal Sector - China Hongqiao's net profit forecast for 2024 is CNY 223.72 billion, with a PE ratio of 6.78[12] - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 167.43 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.42[12] Building Materials Sector - China National Materials' net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 18.54 billion, with a PE ratio of 16.65[12] - Keda Manufacturing's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 17.24 billion, with a PE ratio of 10.82[12] - Three Trees' revenue compound growth rate from 2015 to 2018 was approximately 33%[40] Transportation Sector - SF Holding's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 117.44 billion, with a PE ratio of 20.58[12] - The company has seen a significant increase in daily package handling, reaching an average of 166 packages per courier in 2024[56] Chemical Sector - Yara International's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 22.52 billion, with a PE ratio of 12.30[12] - Ba Tian's net profit forecast for 2025 is CNY 12.84 billion, with a PE ratio of 7.59[12] Financial Performance - The overall net profit for Keda Manufacturing is projected to reach CNY 19.0 billion by 2026, with a significant increase in overseas revenue contributing to growth[31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in coal prices due to the high costs of overseas coal mines, which may lead to reduced imports and a subsequent increase in domestic coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The European coal market is experiencing a price decline, with ARA port coal prices at $103.4 per ton, down $3.7 per ton (-3.4%) from the previous week. Newcastle port coal prices are at $106.5 per ton, down $0.1 per ton (-0.1%) [1][3]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on natural gas prices, which have led to a simultaneous increase in coal and natural gas prices in Europe by 7-9% [6][3]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, which is expected to reverse its current difficulties. Other recommended companies include Xinjie Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are expected to perform well [3][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector stocks [11][12] - The coal price has stabilized and is expected to continue its upward trend due to safety inspections in production areas, ongoing inventory depletion at ports, and the initiation of peak season demand [11][12] - The valuation of the coal sector remains low, and the continuous improvement in fundamentals and price expectations has not yet been fully reflected, highlighting the sector's investment value [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of June 28, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 614 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 65.3 USD/ton, down 1.3 USD/ton week-on-week [11][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1250 CNY/ton [11][31] Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 92.9%, down 1.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the coking coal mine utilization rate is 82.48%, down 2.0 percentage points [11][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 14.5 thousand tons/day (+4.13%), while consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 1.6 thousand tons/day (-0.84%) [11][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Power Investment [12][13] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity [12][13]

Meeting Overview - The H-share class shareholders' meeting of China Coal Energy Company Limited was held on June 27, 2025, in Beijing [1][2] - The total number of shares held by A-share shareholders is 7,645,970,840, while H-share shareholders hold 2,328,986,214 shares, representing 75.2335% of the total shares [1] Voting Results - The voting results showed that A-share shareholders voted 99.9871% in favor, with only 0.0127% against and 0.0002% abstaining [1] - H-share shareholders voted 97.3134% in favor, with 2.6707% against and 0.0159% abstaining [1] - The total voting results for ordinary shares indicated 99.3628% in favor, 0.6333% against, and 0.0039% abstaining [1] Attendance and Compliance - The meeting was attended by 12 A-share shareholders, representing 57.6677% of the total shares, while H-share shareholders represented 17.5658% [2] - The meeting was convened in accordance with the Company Law and the Articles of Association, with the chairman Wang Shudong presiding [2] Agenda and Resolutions - The agenda included non-cumulative voting proposals, all of which were passed [3][5] - Specific proposals included the mid-term dividend plan for 2025 and the appointment of the accounting firm for the 2025 mid-term financial report [5][6] Legal Compliance - The procedures for convening and conducting the shareholders' meetings were confirmed to comply with legal regulations and the company's Articles of Association, ensuring the validity of the voting results [6]