Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance remains under pressure, with a focus on the effects of adjustments becoming evident [2] - Despite short-term competitive pressures, the company is expected to optimize its channel and organizational strategies, leading to market expansion and resource allocation becoming more precise [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.288 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 352 million yuan, down 9% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 699 million yuan, a decline of 13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 101 million yuan, down 23% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 increased by 1 percentage point to 37.54%, while the net profit margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 14.45% [2] Market Competition and Strategy - The seasoning market is facing intensified competition, with Q3 2024 revenue from soy sauce and vinegar declining by 14% and 16% respectively due to weak market demand [3] - Revenue by region in Q3 2024 showed declines in most areas, with the western region being the focus for future market development [3] - The company is expanding its direct sales channels and enhancing its marketing network, with the number of distributors increasing to 3,424 by the end of Q3 2024 [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.49, 0.56, and 0.64 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 22, and 19 times [4] - The company is expected to continue expanding its scale despite short-term challenges, with a projected revenue growth rate of 0.8% in 2024 and 9.8% in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [4][11]. Core Views - The company experienced pressure on its Q3 performance, with a revenue decline of 1.85% year-on-year to 2.288 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 9.19% to 352 million yuan [1]. - Despite the challenges in Q3, the long-term growth logic remains clear, with the company actively adapting to market changes by expanding product categories and channels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.288 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 352 million yuan, down 9.19% [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenues were 699 million yuan, reflecting a 12.63% decline year-on-year, while net profit fell by 22.58% to 101 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin improved to 37.54%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin decreased to 14.45%, down 1.86 percentage points [3]. Sales Performance - The sales of key products such as soy sauce and vinegar faced significant declines, with revenues dropping 13.82% and 15.67% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The distribution channels also showed weakness, with revenue from the distribution channel down 17.32% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and enhancing its distribution channels, including a significant investment in a new 300,000-ton soy sauce production line [3]. - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 519 million yuan, 605 million yuan, and 702 million yuan, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 352 million yuan, down 9.19% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 699 million yuan, a decrease of 12.63%, with a net profit of 101 million yuan, down 22.58% year-on-year. Both revenue and profit fell short of expectations [2][6] - The decline in revenue is attributed to base disturbances and proactive strategic adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing revenue and protecting profits. For Q3 2024, soy sauce revenue was 435 million yuan, down 13.82%, and vinegar revenue was 85 million yuan, down 15.67%. Revenue from distribution and direct sales models was 468 million yuan and 218 million yuan, down 17.32% and 0.43% respectively [6] - The company’s gross margin increased by 0.67 percentage points to 37.54% in Q3 2024, likely due to product upgrades and cost benefits. However, the overall net profit margin decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 14.45% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 3.248 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.28%, and net profit of 518 million yuan, a decrease of 2.42%. EPS is projected at 0.50 yuan [7] - The company’s revenue for 2022, 2023, and projected for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2.436 billion yuan, 3.207 billion yuan, 3.248 billion yuan, 3.573 billion yuan, and 3.932 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 26.55%, 31.62%, 1.28%, 10.01%, and 10.05% [7] Strategic Adjustments - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment period, which is expected to lead to operational improvements. The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 3.248 billion yuan, 3.573 billion yuan, and 3.932 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 518 million yuan, 610 million yuan, and 691 million yuan [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027) [3][5] Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure on performance due to weak demand, but is expected to rebound in the medium to long term through product optimization and channel expansion [2][3] - The company's Q3 2024 results were below market expectations, with revenue of 2.288 billion yuan, down 1.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 352 million yuan, down 9.19% year-on-year [3] - Despite short-term growth challenges, the company's brand positioning in healthy condiments aligns with long-term trends in health-conscious eating, which is expected to support future growth [3] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 699 million yuan, a decrease of 12.63% year-on-year, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, down 22.58% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 37.54%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining costs, while the net margin was 14.45%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has revised its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.49, 0.55, and 0.63 yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -5.2%, +12.4%, and +15.3% respectively [3][4] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 15.68 yuan, based on a 2025 PE ratio of 28.5x, referencing comparable companies such as Haitian Flavor Industry and Tianwei Food [3][5] - The current market capitalization of Qianhe Flavor Industry is approximately 12.477 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 352 million, down 9.19% year-on-year [2][3] - The company faced pressure on soy sauce revenue due to proactive inventory control and price upgrades, leading to a 13.8% year-on-year decline in soy sauce revenue for Q3 2024 [2] - The southern region showed resilience, with a stable performance, while the overall dealer count decreased as the company focused on optimizing its dealer network [2] - The gross margin improved to 37.54% in Q3 2024, up 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs [3] - The company expects accelerated growth in Q4 2024 following the completion of channel adjustments and the introduction of new products [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 32 billion, 36 billion, and 39 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, 11%, and 9% [4] - The net profit forecast for the same period has been revised to 5.2 billion, 5.8 billion, and 6.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -3%, +13%, and +11% [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 25, 22, and 20 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 352 million yuan, down 9.19% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 699 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.63%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.58% year-on-year to 101 million yuan [2]. - The company is actively controlling inventory and adjusting channels, which has led to continued operational pressure in Q3. Revenue from soy sauce and vinegar in Q3 2024 was 435 million yuan and 85 million yuan, respectively, down 13.82% and 15.67% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin slightly improved, with Q1-3 2024 and Q3 2024 gross margins at 36.20% and 37.54%, respectively. The increase in Q3 gross margin is attributed to a decline in some raw material prices [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 352 million yuan, down 9.19% year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.45%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The company expects revenues of 3.24 billion yuan, 3.61 billion yuan, and 4.05 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.1%, 11.3%, and 12.2% [2][5]. Cost and Expenses - The sales expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 14.93%, an increase of 2.98 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in revenue scale affecting cost efficiency and increased market personnel expenses due to intensified industry competition [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the quality of its distributors, with a total of 3,424 distributors as of the end of Q3 2024, a net decrease of 136 from the previous quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue facing operational pressure in the short term due to intensified market competition and weak demand. However, it has been actively adjusting its strategies since Q2, focusing on product quality and optimizing its product system [2]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 500 million yuan, 560 million yuan, and 630 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.3%, +11.8%, and +11.5% [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company continues to face pressure in Q3 performance, with a decline in profitability [3][5] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2.29 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 350 million yuan, down 9.2% year-on-year [3] - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategy, focusing on channel and brand development, and expanding its zero-additive product line [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 700 million yuan, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, down 22.6% year-on-year [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, soy sauce and vinegar revenues were 1.435 billion yuan and 287 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 2.4% and 10.4% [3] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 36.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [5] Regional Performance - Revenue changes by region for the first three quarters of 2024 showed East/South/Central/North/West regions with year-on-year changes of -3.7%/+13.7%/-3.1%/+3.2%/-5.8% [4] - In Q3 2024, the South region's revenue remained stable, while other regions experienced declines [4] Channel Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue from distribution and direct sales channels changed by -3.5% and +1.9%, respectively [4] - In Q3 2024, distribution channel revenue decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, influenced by last year's high base [4] Profitability and Forecast - The company’s net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 515 million, 594 million, and 679 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 9.2%, 8.8%, and 7.6% [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 25x for 2024, 21x for 2025, and 19x for 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing active reforms, and the results are anticipated to show improvement. The product and channel adjustments are nearing completion, with expectations to return to a growth trend. The long-term trend towards zero additives remains unchanged, and there is significant growth potential nationwide. Profitability is expected to improve as cost benefits continue to be realized and scale effects enhance, with net profit margins having substantial room for improvement compared to peers [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue was 700 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 100 million yuan, down 22.6%. For the first three quarters, revenue totaled 2.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9%, and net profit was 350 million yuan, down 9.2% [1]. - Q3 gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 37.5%, benefiting from lower raw material costs. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios changed by +3.0 percentage points, -0.7 percentage points, and +0.3 percentage points respectively, with the net profit margin decreasing by 1.9 percentage points to 14.4% [1][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 3.27 billion yuan, 3.67 billion yuan, and 4.08 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 12.2%, and 11.2% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 510 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 650 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.1%, +14.2%, and +12.2% respectively [4][5]. Segment Analysis - Revenue by product category in Q3 showed soy sauce and vinegar revenues of 435 million yuan and 85 million yuan, down 13.8% and 15.7% year-on-year respectively, impacted by high base effects and product adjustments. The company has completed product adjustments, and channel inventory is at a low level, with normal shipping resuming in September [1]. - Revenue by region in Q3 was 165 million yuan (East), 56 million yuan (South), 92 million yuan (Central), 110 million yuan (North), and 260 million yuan (West), with year-on-year changes of -8.4%, 0%, -21%, -17.7%, and -12% respectively, indicating resilience in the South [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.288 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 352 million RMB, down 9.19% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on the zero-additive segment of the condiment industry, expecting to benefit from the increasing penetration of zero-additive products despite facing challenges such as weak dining demand and intensified competition [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 699 million RMB, a decline of 12.63% year-on-year, and a net profit of 101 million RMB, down 22.58% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from soy sauce, vinegar, and other businesses in Q3 2024 was 430 million RMB, 84 million RMB, and 136 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year changes of 13.8%, -15.6%, and -30.3% respectively [1] - The company reduced the number of distributors by 136 in Q3, impacting revenue significantly in the central and western regions [1] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 37.54%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in raw material prices and price optimization [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 14.45%, a decrease of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects a decrease in earnings for 2024-2026, with net profits expected to be 520 million RMB, 590 million RMB, and 670 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1%, +12%, and +14% respectively [2] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these years are projected to be 24x, 22x, and 19x [2] Market Positioning - The company is strategically adjusting its operations to enhance its market position in the zero-additive segment, aiming for growth post-channel adjustments [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 千禾味业（603027）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 短期压力释放，战略夯实基础 目标价：14.7 元 当前价：12.29 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年三季报，2024 年前三季度公司实现营收 22.88 亿，同比-1.85%； 实现归母净利润 3.52 亿，同比-9.19%。单 Q3 公司实现营收 6.99 亿，同比12.63%；实现归母净利润 1.01 亿，同比-22.58%。 评论： ❖ 放慢扩张脚步，转向夯实基础，公司营收 Q3 下滑幅度低于预期。公司单 Q3 收入同比-12.6%，下滑较多一是去年受益零添加事件存在较高基数，二是因为 今年龙头发力挤压，零添加赛道竞争显著加剧，公司份额存在丢失情况，三是 公司主动调整拓张节奏，适当收缩夯实基础，持续消化渠道及终端库存。分产 品来看，24Q3 酱油/食醋分别收入同比-13.8%/-15.7%，均出现一定程度下滑。 分渠道来看，Q3 经销渠道营收同比-17.3%，经销商数量亦环比 Q2 减少 136 家 至 3424 家，是 2020 年以来首个经销商数目减少的季度，直销渠道也在高基 数、龙头挤压下，营收同比-0. ...