千禾味业食品股份有限公司 2024 年度持续督导年度报告书 招商证券股份有限公司 关于千禾味业食品股份有限公司 2024 年度持续督导年度报告书 经中国证券监督管理委员会（以下简称"证监会"）《关于同意千禾味业食品 股份有限公司向特定对象发行股票注册的批复》（证监许可[2023]1097 号）同意， 千禾味业食品股份有限公司（以下简称"千禾味业"、"公司"、"上市公司"）向 特定对象伍超群先生共计发行 62,402,496 股股票，本次向特定对象发行股票募集 资金总额为人民币 80,000.00 万元；扣除发行费用（不含增值税）420.50 万元， 募集资金净额为人民币 79,579.50 万元，上述募集资金已于 2023 年 6 月 30 日全 部到位，经信永中和会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）验资并于 2023 年 7 月 3 日 出具了《千禾味业食品股份有限公司向特定对象发行股票募集资金验资报告》 （XYZH/2023CDAA9B0199）。 招商证券股份有限公司（以下简称"招商证券"、"保荐机构"）作为千禾味 业 2022 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票的保荐机构，根据《证券发行上市保荐业 务管理办法》《 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.073 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 514 million, down 3.07% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 514 million, with a dividend payout ratio of 99.94% [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to slow demand recovery and increased competition [1] Revenue and Product Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 1.964 billion from soy sauce and 370 million from vinegar, with year-on-year declines of 3.75% and 12.52% respectively [2] - Soy sauce volume and price changed by 1.27% and -4.96% year-on-year, while vinegar saw a volume decline of 9.50% and a price drop of 3.33% [2] - In Q1 2025, soy sauce revenue was 540 million, down 4.7% year-on-year, and vinegar revenue was 100 million, down 10.6% [2] Regional and Channel Analysis - In 2024, revenue by region was 700 million in the East, 237 million in the South, 417 million in the Central, 560 million in the North, and 1.12 billion in the West, with varying year-on-year changes [2] - Online and offline sales in 2024 were 600 million and 2.433 billion respectively, both showing declines [2] - In Q1 2025, online revenue was 126 million, down 12.3%, while offline revenue was 691 million, down 5.9% [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The company achieved a gross margin of 37.19% in 2024, a slight increase year-on-year, with soy sauce and vinegar gross margins at 38% and 40.27% respectively [3] - Despite revenue and price declines, the company benefited from cost reductions, with soy sauce and vinegar costs down 5.6% and 5.2% respectively [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 38.89%, attributed to lower costs [3] Investment Rating and Valuation - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 540 million, 610 million, and 690 million respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5%, 13%, and 14% [1] - The latest stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 23x, 20x, and 18x for 2025-2027 [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.073 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 514 million yuan, down 3.07% year-on-year [6]. - The company is experiencing pressure on revenue due to slow demand recovery and intensified competition, with a forecasted net profit of 537 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a 4.5% year-on-year increase [5][6]. - The report highlights that the gross profit margin improved slightly to 37.19% in 2024, despite a decline in revenue, due to a decrease in costs [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 3,073 million yuan - 2025E: 3,039 million yuan - 2026E: 3,283 million yuan - 2027E: 3,506 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -4.2% for 2024, -1.1% for 2025, 8.0% for 2026, and 6.8% for 2027 [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 514 million yuan - 2025E: 537 million yuan - 2026E: 605 million yuan - 2027E: 688 million yuan [5][7]. - The report indicates a slight increase in gross profit margin from 37.2% in 2024 to 39.7% in 2027 [5][7]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company’s revenue from soy sauce and vinegar was 1.964 billion yuan and 370 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 3.75% and 12.52% [6]. - The company’s revenue by region showed varied performance, with the eastern region experiencing a decline of 1.78% while the southern region saw an increase of 13.99% [6]. - Online and offline sales for 2024 were 600 million yuan and 2.433 billion yuan, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [6].

Core Viewpoint - Qianhe Flavor Industry reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, marking the first revenue drop since its IPO in 2016, raising concerns about its future development amid increased market competition and regulatory changes regarding its "zero-additive" concept [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Qianhe Flavor Industry achieved revenue of 3.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.16%, and a net profit of 514 million yuan, down 3.07% [3]. - The decline in revenue continued into Q1 2025, with revenue of 831 million yuan, a decrease of 7.15%, while net profit rose by 3.67% to 161 million yuan [3]. - The soy sauce business, which accounts for over 60% of revenue, saw a revenue decline of 3.75%, while the vinegar segment, making up over 10%, experienced a 12.52% drop [4]. Market Competition - Increased competition in the "zero-additive" sector, particularly from rivals like Haitian Flavor Industry, has led to market share erosion for Qianhe Flavor Industry [3][5]. - The company's reliance on the "zero-additive" concept has been challenged by new regulations prohibiting the use of such marketing terms, necessitating a shift in its marketing strategy [6]. Strategic Response - Qianhe Flavor Industry plans to focus on optimizing product structure and enhancing cost control to improve profitability [3][4]. - The company aims to strengthen its brand and channel development, emphasizing high-quality products to meet consumer health and taste demands [4][6]. - New product initiatives include a 30% reduced-salt soy sauce, which has already captured 5% of soy sauce revenue, and plans for a dedicated production line for customized products targeting infants and the elderly [6][7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that Qianhe Flavor Industry must innovate and differentiate its products to build a competitive edge and enhance brand recognition [7]. - The company is expected to adapt its marketing strategies in response to regulatory changes while continuing to explore functional product extensions to attract consumers [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 4.2% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.07 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 510 million yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is undergoing internal adjustments, which have led to short-term revenue pressure. The soy sauce segment saw a revenue of 1.96 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.8% year-on-year, while vinegar revenue dropped 12.5% to 370 million yuan [2][4]. - Cost optimization has improved profitability, with gross margins increasing to 37.2% in 2024 and 38.9% in Q1 2025, attributed to lower raw material prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 514 million yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 830 million yuan, a decline of 7.2% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.2% in 2024 and 38.9% in Q1 2025, reflecting cost reductions in raw materials [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - The soy sauce segment generated 1.96 billion yuan in 2024, with a volume increase of 1.3% but a price decrease of 5.0%. The vinegar segment's revenue fell to 370 million yuan, with both volume and price declines [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company expects revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 3.18 billion yuan, 3.39 billion yuan, and 3.66 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 6.6%, and 7.8% respectively [4][5]. - Net profit is projected to increase to 553 million yuan, 592 million yuan, and 638 million yuan over the same period, with growth rates of 7.6%, 7.1%, and 7.7% respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 4.2% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.07 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 510 million yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is undergoing internal adjustments, which have led to short-term revenue pressure. The adjustments are expected to yield positive results in the future [2][4]. - Cost optimization has improved profitability, with gross margins increasing to 37.2% in 2024 and 38.9% in Q1 2025, driven by lower raw material prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 514 million yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 830 million yuan, a decline of 7.2% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.2% in 2024 and 38.9% in Q1 2025, attributed to the decline in raw material prices [3][4]. Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, soy sauce revenue was 1.96 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, while vinegar revenue was 370 million yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year. The company faced challenges due to intensified industry competition and high base effects from 2023 [2][4]. - Revenue from different regions showed varied performance, with the southern region growing by 14% while other regions experienced declines [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 3.18 billion yuan in 2025, 3.39 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.66 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 6.6%, and 7.8% respectively [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 553 million yuan in 2025, 592 million yuan in 2026, and 638 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7.6%, 7.1%, and 7.7% respectively [4][5].

Group 1: Company Performance - Qianhe Flavor Industry reported a revenue of 3.073 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 514 million yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, revenue further declined to 785 million yuan, a 10.3% decrease year-on-year, while net profit increased by 13.4% to 163 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 831 million yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year, with net profit at 161 million yuan, a 3.7% increase [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in revenue is attributed to increased competition in the condiment market, leading to price wars [2] - In 2024, Qianhe's soy sauce and vinegar revenue was 1.96 billion yuan and 370 million yuan, down 3.8% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The company reduced the number of low-profit or low-priced zero-additive product SKUs, which led to short-term price pressure [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - In contrast, Haitian Flavor Industry saw an increase in soy sauce sales and a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, up 9.53% year-on-year [4] - Haitian's net profit was 6.344 billion yuan, a 12.75% increase, attributed to its focus on the catering and lower-tier markets [4] - Qianhe's strategy to target the high-end market comes with its own set of challenges and costs [5] Group 4: Industry Trends - The overall performance pressure on Qianhe is primarily due to market changes rather than isolated events [3] - The reduction in the number of Qianhe's distributors by 74 to 3,282 indicates a contraction in its market presence [3] - The brand's image and core competitiveness are affected by public perception issues, which further complicate its market position [3]

Core Viewpoint - Qianhe Flavor Industry reported its first negative growth in performance since its listing in 2016, with revenue and net profit both declining in the last fiscal year [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Qianhe achieved revenue of 3.073 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.16% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 514 million yuan, down 3.07% [3]. - The core products, soy sauce and vinegar, saw revenue drop to 1.964 billion yuan and 370 million yuan, representing declines of 3.75% and 12.52% respectively, although gross margins slightly improved [3]. - Despite the revenue decline, soy sauce sales volume increased by 1.27%, indicating a drop in price per ton [3]. Dividend Policy - Qianhe announced a significant dividend payout of 99.94% of its net profit, distributing 514 million yuan, which is nearly equivalent to its net profit for the year [6][7]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The company faces intensified competition as major players like Haitian Flavor Industry and Lee Kum Kee are launching "zero-additive" products, undermining Qianhe's competitive edge [3][10]. - The southern region showed the best performance for Qianhe, with revenue growth of 13.99% to 237 million yuan, while other regions experienced declines [3]. Regulatory Changes - New national standards prohibit the use of terms like "zero additives" on packaging, which poses a challenge for Qianhe, as its branding heavily relies on this concept [9][10]. - The transition period for compliance with the new regulations is two years, during which Qianhe must remove "zero additive" labels from its products, potentially incurring significant rebranding costs [10][11]. Cost Management - Qianhe managed to reduce its operating costs to 1.930 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.22% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [5]. - The direct material costs for soy sauce and vinegar decreased by 6.25% and 16.14% respectively, benefiting from lower soybean prices [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027) [1][6] Core Views - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 3.073 billion, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with net profit at 514 million, down 3.1% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is facing short-term pressures but is actively adjusting its operations, with expectations for gradual improvement in revenue in the second half of 2025 [6][7] - The target price is set at 14.7 yuan, with the current price at 11.77 yuan, indicating a potential upside [2][6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3,073 million, 3,032 million, 3,289 million, and 3,529 million respectively [2] - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -4.2% for 2024, -1.3% for 2025, 8.5% for 2026, and 7.3% for 2027 [2] - Net profit estimates are 514 million for 2024, 543 million for 2025, 596 million for 2026, and 655 million for 2027, with growth rates of -3.1%, 5.6%, 9.8%, and 9.9% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.50 yuan for 2024, 0.53 yuan for 2025, 0.58 yuan for 2026, and 0.64 yuan for 2027 [2] Operational Insights - The company has experienced a decline in revenue due to increased competition and a high base from the previous year, with specific product categories like soy sauce and vinegar seeing significant drops [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 5.0 yuan per 10 shares, yielding a dividend rate of 4.13% [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 37.2%, with improvements expected in the latter half of the year due to cost reductions and product adjustments [6][7]

盈利预测与投资评级：公司短期受舆论事件冲击，下调公司25-26 年收入预期为32/35 亿元（此前25-26 年预期36/39 亿元），新增27 年收入预期38 亿元，同比+5%/+7%/+9%；考虑到公司成本红利显著，调 整25-26 年归母净利润预期为5.9/6.3 亿元（此前25-26 年预期为5.8/6.5 亿元），并新增27 年预期为6.8 亿 元，同比+14%/+7%/+9%，对应25-27 年PE 分别为21/19/18x，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨、行业竞争加剧、消费复苏不及预期，食品安全问题 24Q4/25Q1 公司管理费用率分别同比-3.2pct/持平，24Q4 管理费用率下降主因公司冲回股权激励费用。 综合来看24Q4/25Q1 公司归母净利率分别同比+4.3/+2pct，盈利能力强化。 注重股东回报，积极应对舆情。2024 年公司分红率达到99%，2025 年4 月15 日股价对应股息率4.4%， 股东回报优异。2025 年3 月公司针对零添加产品被媒体送检事件发布澄清公告，明确公司零添加产品符 合企业标示的酿造酱油国家标准，且绝不添加食品添加剂。未来随着公司积极 ...