本报告导读： 1Q25 归母净利润超我们此前预期，24 年收入及利润略低于我们此前预期。2025 年一季度利润显著回 暖，25 年全年目标进取明确，建议关注全年兑现节奏与新项目落地成效。 投资要点： 投资建议：我 们预测2025-2027 年EPS 分别为0.51/0.54/0.65元，考虑到 2025 年行业平均的 34PE，给予 公司25 年30X PE 估值，上调目标价为 15.3 元，维持增持评级。 24 业绩略低于预期，1Q25 利润超预期：2024 年营业收入5.36 亿元（-14.87%），归母净利润1.05 亿元 （-28.80%），扣非归母净利润1.01亿元（-27.77%），业绩承压原因在于酒店改造扰动运营，叠加费用 刚性压缩利润空间。24 业绩略低于此前预期，我们此前预期营业收入和归母净利润各5.7 亿元，1.16 亿 元。24Q4 营业收入1.32 亿元，环比-6.9%，同比-15.2%，归母净利润0.19 亿元，环比-41.5%，同 比-28.6%。2025Q1 营业收入1.05 亿元（-1.6%），归母净利润0.14 亿元（+26.45%），扣非归母净利润 0.13 亿元（+34. ...

事件描述 新项目维度，未来三年溧阳"根据地"将以"零星增量完善功能+动物王国重磅项目落地"为主线，同时异 地扩张上有望取得突破，在地方国资扶持下成长为全国性休闲旅游龙头。 预计2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为1.26/1.44/1.61 亿元，对应PE 分别为26X/23X/20X，维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示 分业务看，各业务条线营收均受外部环境影响下滑，水世界受极端天气影响更大。2024年公司景区业 务/水世界业务/温泉业务/酒店业务/旅行社业务营业收入分别同比下降 13.03%/41.28%/10.4%/23.1%/4.54%，营业收入同比下降，主要系外部环境变化以及系暑期（7 月-8 月） 江浙沪地区持续高温、极端天气频发影响公司业务开展所致，由于天目湖水世界开放时间主要在6 月下 旬至9 月初，因此水世界业务受暑期极端天气影响更大，营收下滑幅度更深。受到收入下降影响，各业 务条线毛利率均下滑，其中水世界毛利率同比转负，各业务分别同比减少0.81/50.38/1.42/8.49/0.58pct。 盈利能力方面，2024 年同比承压，2025Q1 毛利率带动净利率回升。在营收下降影响下，20 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 天目湖（603136） 证券研究报告 25Q1 利润增长 26%，全年业绩增长展望积极 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报： 2024 年营收 5.4 亿元、同比下滑 14.9%，归母净利润 1.0 亿元、同比下滑 28.8%，扣非归母净利润 1.0 亿元、同比下滑 27.8%。2024 年受外部市场环 境影响，业绩有所下滑。 24Q4 营收 1.3 亿元、同比下滑 15.2%，归母净利润 0.2 亿元、同比下滑 28.6%， 扣非归母净利润 0.2 亿元、同比下滑 29.6%。 25Q1 营收 1.0 亿元、同比下滑 1.6%，归母净利润 0.1 亿元、同比增长 26.45%， 扣非归母净利润 0.1 亿元、同比增长 34.5%。成本管控得当利润增速转正。 2024 年分红方案：拟每股派发现金红利 0.235 元（含税），分红率 60.7%。 分业务：2024 年各业务均承压 2024 年，景区业务收入 2.8 亿元、同比下滑 13.0%（其中，山水园收入 1.5 亿元、同比下滑 17.5%，南山竹海收入 1.3 亿元、同比下滑 7.6%），酒店业 务收入 1.6 亿 ...

[Table_Summary] 2025Q1，公司实现营业收入 1.05 亿元，同比下降 1.6%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.13 亿元，同 比增长 34.46%。远期来看，公司仍为景区板块中组织治理最优、成长逻辑最顺公司。 新项目 维度，未来三年溧阳"根据地"将以"零星增量完善功能+动物王国重磅项目落地"为主线，同 时异地扩张上有望取得突破，在地方国资扶持下成长为全国性休闲旅游龙头。预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为 1.26/1.44/1.61 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 26X/23X/20X，维持"买入" 评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨天目湖（603136.SH） [Table_Title] 2024 年年报暨 2025 年一季报点评：新老项目 稳步推进，2025 年业绩韧性复苏 报告要点 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 天目湖（603136.SH） ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 603136.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.39 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.6 1.5 7.9 (37.0) 相对上证综指 6.6 3.7 6.6 (44.9) (27%) (19%) (11%) (3%) 4% 12% Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 天目湖 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 270.13 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 270.13 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 3,346.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 86.08 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 溧阳市城市建设发展集团有限公司 | 26.86 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《天目湖》2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 26% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in performance [1][4] - The company is actively advancing its project pipeline, including the successful bid for the first phase of the Animal Kingdom project, which is expected to contribute to future growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 536.20 million yuan, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104.66 million yuan, down 28.80% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 132 million yuan, a decline of 15.18% year-on-year, with a net profit of 19 million yuan, down 28.64% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.235 yuan per share, totaling 63 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 60.65% [4] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: scenic spots 282 million yuan, hotels 159 million yuan, hot springs 42 million yuan, travel agencies 9 million yuan, and water world 7 million yuan, all experiencing declines due to external factors [4] Future Projections - For 2025, the company forecasts a net profit of 137.89 million yuan, representing a growth of 31.75% year-on-year, with an expected revenue of 585.94 million yuan, a growth of 9.27% year-on-year [2][4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.51 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.92 [2][4] Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading one-stop tourism service provider in the Yangtze River Delta, with a robust product development and operational capability in the full tourism industry chain [4] - The opening of the Hushu Lake high-speed railway is anticipated to boost customer traffic, while state-owned capital control is expected to enhance resource allocation [4]

Core Insights - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, with performance in line with expectations [1] - Revenue for 2024 was 536 million, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 105 million, down 28.8% due to extreme weather and external market conditions [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 105 million, a decline of 1.6% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.45% to 14 million [1] Financial Performance - The company's sales and management expense ratios for 2024 were 8.41% and 14.68%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.83 and +0.99 percentage points [1] - For Q1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios were 5.67% and 17.15%, with year-on-year changes of +0.86 and +0.15 percentage points [1] Core Business Stability - The core scenic area business remained robust, with Tianmu Lake's main attractions generating revenues of 148 million and 135 million, down 17.47% and 7.58% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Gross profit margins for these attractions were 69.72% and 71.22%, indicating strong profitability [1] - The company effectively mitigated seasonal revenue fluctuations by developing secondary consumption scenarios and complementary seasonal products [1] Growth Initiatives - Scenic area renovations and new projects are driving organic growth, with ongoing projects like Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Night Park enhancing visitor experience and brand appeal [2] - The company is expanding its hotel business through new constructions and renovations, improving reception capacity and service quality [2] - The opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway at the end of 2024 will reduce travel time from Shanghai to Liyang to about one hour, potentially boosting visitor traffic [2] Shareholder Returns - The company implemented a profit distribution plan for 2023, distributing 5.36 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 100 million yuan [2] - The board approved a profit distribution proposal for 2024, planning to distribute 2.35 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), expected to total 63 million yuan [2] - The cash dividend policy aligns with company regulations, ensuring the protection of minority shareholders' rights [2] Investment Outlook - The company is focused on a "one-stop tourism" development model, with unique and competitive products [3] - Following the opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway, there is significant marketing flexibility [3] - Upcoming projects include the planning and construction of Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II, the planning of Pingqiao characteristic leisure tourism area, and the third phase of Yushui Hot Spring [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 134 million and 153 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 170 million [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is projected to experience revenue growth from 536.20 million in 2024 to 698.00 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.00% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 104.66 million in 2024 to 180.91 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8] - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 257.55 million in 2024 to 464.40 million in 2027, showcasing improved operational efficiency [8] Financial Summary - **Income Statement**: - Revenue is expected to grow from 536.20 million in 2024 to 698.00 million in 2027, with a projected net profit increase from 120.91 million to 201.01 million over the same period [8] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 52.42% in 2024 to 57.02% in 2027 [8] - **Balance Sheet**: - Total assets are projected to grow from 1781.65 million in 2024 to 2395.60 million in 2027, indicating a solid asset base [7] - The company’s total liabilities are expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 314.22 million in 2024 to 385.54 million in 2027 [7] - **Cash Flow Statement**: - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase significantly from 192.05 million in 2024 to 471.71 million in 2027, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [7] - The net cash increase is expected to rise from 79.29 million in 2024 to 214.29 million in 2027, indicating improved liquidity [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 536 million yuan for the year 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million yuan, down 29% year-over-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 105 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2% year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27% year-over-year to 14 million yuan [1] Business Structure Analysis - For the year 2024, the company's revenue from the scenic area business was 282 million yuan, down 13% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 70.43%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] - The water world business generated 7 million yuan in revenue, a significant decrease of 41% year-over-year, with a gross margin of -43.40%, down 50 percentage points [2] - The hot spring business achieved a revenue of 42 million yuan, down 10% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 46.98%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points [2] - The hotel business reported a revenue of 159 million yuan, down 23% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 21.40%, an increase of 8 percentage points [2] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to achieve a revenue of 582 million yuan in 2025, an increase of 8.6% year-over-year, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, up 42% year-over-year [3] - The company aims to focus on its core business and enhance compounding effects through targeted strategies for sightseeing and vacation products, as well as regional collaboration [3] - The company is accelerating organizational transformation and leveraging technology to improve efficiency, including management information system upgrades and AI operations [3] - Strategic projects such as the upgrade of Yushui Hot Spring and the renovation of Longxing Island Butterfly Valley are being prioritized for sustainable development [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 582 million, 641 million, and 692 million yuan, respectively, with net profits of 143 million, 159 million, and 170 million yuan, indicating growth rates of 37%, 11%, and 7% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to external market conditions and extreme weather, but it has set positive performance targets for 2025 [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.35 yuan per 10 shares, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 60.65% [1][6]. - Despite the challenges in 2024, the company is focusing on cost optimization and has seen a narrowing revenue decline in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 536 million yuan, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 28.80% year-on-year [1][6]. - The Q4 2024 results showed revenue and net profit of 132 million yuan and 19 million yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 15.18% and 28.64% year-on-year [1][6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 105 million yuan, a slight decline of 1.60% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 26.45% to 13.84 million yuan [2][11]. Business Segments - The main business segments faced revenue declines in 2024: scenic area revenue was 282 million yuan (-13.03%), hot spring revenue was 42 million yuan (-10.40%), hotel revenue was 159 million yuan (-23.10%), and water park revenue was 7 million yuan (-41.28%) [2][9]. - The overall net profit margin for the year was 19.52%, down 3.82 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. Future Outlook - The company has set ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for revenue of 580 million yuan and net profit of 150 million yuan [3][14]. - New projects, including the management output of the Liyang Animal Kingdom, are expected to contribute positively to future earnings [3][14]. - The company is also advancing other projects, such as the Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and the Pingqiao Cultural Tourism Complex, to enhance its product matrix [3][14].