大消费行业主题报告 20251217 摘要 新消费需求涌现，推动大消费板块发展，体现在新产品（个性化、绿色 低碳）、新渠道（零食连锁、折扣业态）和新业态（多元消费场景）三 个方向，并受"十五五"规划支持。 传统消费行业预计 2026 年回暖，居民购买力释放，行业调整修复。食 品饮料行业企稳，白酒基本面或稳定，乳制品有望快速修复。关注提振 就业、增收稳预期等政策措施。 大宗商品市场前高后低，国家出台多维度促销政策提振服务性消费和内 需，商务部等部委发布扩大服务性消费政策意见，旨在通过提升居民生 活质量激发内需潜力。 社会服务领域，旅游出行和美妆零售酝酿变化，消费者转向理性性价比 和精神追求。携程、华住等头部企业通过技术创新和营销满足新兴旅游 需求，中国中免海南业务受益于离岛免税新政。 食品饮料板块筑底企稳，白酒基本面筑底，大众消费具韧性，估值低位。 零食板块业绩分化，新产品红利释放。乳制品需求平稳，供给逐渐出清。 餐饮供应链景气度回升，预制食品龙头竞争优势凸显。 Q&A 2026 年大消费行业的整体趋势和主要推动因素是什么？ 2026 年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，预计消费刺激政策将持续落地，有 效释放居民消 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日个护用品板块主力资金净流出2680.77万元，游资资金净流入1185.26万元，散户 资金净流入1495.51万元。个护用品板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603059 | 倍加洁 | - 397.81万 | 9.32% | -411.15万 | -9.64% | 13.35万 | 0.31% | | 001206 | 依依股份 | 212.30万 | 2.38% | -338.93万 | -3.80% | 126.63万 | 1.42% | | 603193 润本股份 | | 56.74万 | 1.27% | -34.31万 | -0.77% | -22.43万 | -0.50% | | 001328 | 登康口腔 | 3386.00 | 0.00% | 303.33万 | 3.61% | -303.67万 | -3.61% | | 600T003 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, despite recent underperformance compared to the market [4][5]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.0% from November 28 to December 5, 2025, underperforming the market [4][5]. - Douyin's performance in November met expectations, with domestic brands preparing actively for the upcoming Double 12 sales event, indicating a strong competitive landscape for domestic products [4][10]. - The report highlights the leading market share of Minoxidil products, particularly from Mandi International, which has established itself as a top brand in the hair growth sector [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 2.2%, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index also dropped by 2.0%, both underperforming against the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Juzhibio (+5.9%) and Hongmian Co. (+3.5%), while the worst performers were Kelao Co. (-7.6%) and Baiya Co. (-4.8%) [6]. Key Market Developments - Mandi International has dominated the Minoxidil market, achieving a revenue growth from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 21.7% [12][13]. - The company has maintained a leading position in the market for ten consecutive years, with a market share of about 57% in the hair loss treatment sector and 71% in the Minoxidil product market as of 2024 [12][14]. E-commerce Insights - In November 2025, Douyin's domestic brand GMV showed significant growth, with brands like Han Shu and New Page experiencing double-digit increases [15][18]. - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in October 2025 grew by 9.6%, driven by the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [18][20]. Company Announcements - Lin Qingxuan updated its IPO prospectus for the Hong Kong market, reporting a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.3% [22][19]. - The company plans to expand its research and development team and explore international markets in Southeast Asia [22][19]. Market Trends - The Chinese consumer healthcare market is projected to grow from 9.313 billion yuan in 2018 to 16.420 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.9% [13]. - The report emphasizes the increasing market share of domestic brands in the skincare sector, with a notable rise in the competitive landscape against international brands [24].

Market Overview - The personal care products sector increased by 0.95% on December 1, with Yiyi Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% [1] Stock Performance - Yiyi Co., Ltd. (001206) closed at 31.95, up 4.45% with a trading volume of 86,900 shares and a turnover of 273 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Dengkang Oral (001328) at 36.39, up 1.93% [1] - Zhongshun Jierou (002511) at 8.29, up 1.34% [1] - Ziya Co., Ltd. (003006) at 21.49, up 1.27% [1] - Runben Co., Ltd. (603193) at 25.62, up 1.10% [1] Capital Flow - The personal care products sector experienced a net outflow of 8.8463 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 4.1072 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are entering the market [2] Detailed Capital Flow Analysis - Yiyi Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 9.9188 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 20.8258 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Other companies with significant capital movements include: - Dengkang Oral with a net inflow of 556,900 yuan from institutional investors [3] - Ziya Co., Ltd. with a net inflow of 128,860 yuan from institutional investors [3] - However, companies like Beijia Clean (603059) and Haoyue Nursing (605009) faced substantial net outflows from both institutional and retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry is experiencing a shift towards quality growth and long-term strategies, moving away from reliance on traffic bonuses [25][26] - The industry is focusing on emotional consumption themes, with high-quality companies in sectors like gold jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics being highlighted as investment opportunities [5][29][30] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index rose by 3.45% during the week of November 24-28, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.05 percentage points [4][13] - The multi-format retail sector showed the highest growth this week, with a 6.18% increase, while the jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with a 22.11% increase [18][19] Retail Insights: Brand Building and Technological Aesthetics - The 2025 Cosmetics Annual Conference highlighted the importance of brand building and technological aesthetics for domestic beauty brands to achieve growth [25][26] - Companies like Shiseido and Shanghai Jahwa are focusing on quality and profitability, while Elysian Group is transitioning from operational to technological drivers [26][27] Investment Recommendations - **Gold Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold [5][29] - **Offline Retail**: Highlighting companies adapting to trends and exploring AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [5][30] - **Cosmetics**: Emphasizing brands that meet emotional value and safety innovation, recommending companies like Maogeping and Proya [5][30] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Targeting differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B [5][30] Company-Specific Insights - **Chow Tai Fook**: Achieved revenue of HKD 38.986 billion in FY2026H1, with a slight decline in revenue but a stable profit margin [36][37] - **潮宏基 (Chao Hong Ji)**: Reported a revenue increase of 28.4% in Q1-Q3 2025, with a strong performance in Q3 [39][40] - **永辉超市 (Yonghui Supermarket)**: Experienced a revenue decline of 22.2% in Q1-Q3 2025, but is undergoing a transformation towards quality retail [43][44]

Market Overview - The personal care products sector increased by 0.24% on November 27, with Yanjiang Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12875.19, down 0.25% [1] Stock Performance - Yanjiang Co., Ltd. (300658) closed at 11.25, up 6.33% with a trading volume of 273,400 shares and a transaction value of 300 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Jieya Co., Ltd. (301108) at 31.15, up 1.20% [1] - Reliable Co., Ltd. (301009) at 13.67, up 1.18% [1] - Dengkang Oral Care (001328) at 35.53, up 0.82% [1] - Two-Sided Needle (600249) at 6.27, up 0.64% [1] Capital Flow - The personal care products sector experienced a net outflow of 14.69 million yuan from institutional investors and 10.53 million yuan from retail investors, while individual investors saw a net inflow of 25.23 million yuan [2] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks shows: - Yanjiang Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 19.15 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Reliable Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 0.64 million yuan from individual investors [3] - Other stocks like Baijia Clean (603059) and Runben Co., Ltd. (603193) faced significant net outflows from institutional and retail investors [3]

Core Insights - The personal care products sector experienced a rise of 0.58% on November 25, with Zhongshun Jierou leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3870.02, up 0.87%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12777.31, up 1.53% [1] Stock Performance Summary - Zhongshun Jierou (002511) closed at 8.23, with an increase of 2.62% and a trading volume of 117,000 shares, totaling a transaction value of 96.25 million yuan [1] - Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006) closed at 21.33, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 38,700 shares and a transaction value of 82.06 million yuan [1] - Runben Co., Ltd. (603193) closed at 25.84, increasing by 1.57%, with a trading volume of 45,100 shares and a transaction value of 117 million yuan [1] - Kelaike Co., Ltd. (301009) closed at 13.61, up 1.49%, with a trading volume of 37,400 shares and a transaction value of 50.68 million yuan [1] - Jeya Co., Ltd. (301108) closed at 31.10, increasing by 1.37%, with a trading volume of 9,152 shares and a transaction value of 28.38 million yuan [1] - Dengkang Oral (001328) closed at 35.95, up 1.30%, with a trading volume of 9,566 shares and a transaction value of 34.18 million yuan [1] - Liangmian Needle (600249) closed at 6.18, increasing by 0.98%, with a trading volume of 110,800 shares and a transaction value of 68.16 million yuan [1] - Haoyue Nursing (605009) closed at 33.77, up 0.63%, with a trading volume of 28,600 shares and a transaction value of 96.30 million yuan [1] - Yanjian Co., Ltd. (300658) closed at 10.27, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of 124,500 shares and a transaction value of 128 million yuan [1] - Beijia Co., Ltd. (603059) closed at 29.80, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 51,800 shares and a transaction value of 155 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The personal care products sector saw a net outflow of 51.41 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 60.64 million yuan [2] - The detailed capital flow for selected stocks indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among institutional, retail, and speculative investors [3] - For instance, Kelaike Co., Ltd. (301009) had a net outflow of 4.49 million yuan from institutional investors, while it attracted 1.13 million yuan from speculative investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a focus on emotional consumption and innovative product offerings driving growth [6][32] - Companies like Liufu Group and Meili Tianyuan are implementing strategic upgrades to enhance brand value and market presence [27][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail index reported a decline of 7.24% during the week of November 17-21, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.34 percentage points [5][14] - The retail index has increased by 0.58% year-to-date, lagging behind the overall market performance [14][18] Company Performance Highlights - Liufu Group anticipates a revenue increase of approximately 20%-30% and a net profit growth of 40%-50% for the six months ending September 30, 2025, driven by effective product differentiation and sales strategies [27] - Meili Tianyuan is focusing on three major strategic initiatives: building a super brand through acquisitions, establishing a super chain for quality growth, and enhancing digital capabilities for precise marketing [29] Investment Themes - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings and consumer insights, recommending companies like Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][35] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasize companies adapting to market changes, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][32] - **Cosmetics**: Highlight domestic brands that cater to emotional value and safety innovations, recommending companies like Maogeping and Pola [6][33] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Target differentiated product manufacturers and expanding medical chains, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [6][34] Key Company Updates - Chaohongji reported a revenue increase of 28.4% year-to-date, with a focus on expanding its franchise model and product innovation [38][40] - Yonghui Supermarket's revenue decreased by 22.2% year-to-date, but the company is undergoing a transformation to improve its supply chain and store optimization [41][43]

风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 从润本股份十大流通股东角度 责任编辑：小浪快报 11月20日，润本股份跌1.2%，截至发稿，报24.61元/股，成交5740.87万元，换手率2.25%，总市值99.57 亿元。润本股份股价已经连续5天下跌，区间累计跌幅5.16%。 国泰消费优选股票（005970）基金经理为李海。 资料显示，润本生物技术股份有限公司位于广东省广州市天河区珠江新城华夏路28号40楼，成立日期 2013年12月30日，上市日期2023年10月17日，公司主营业务涉及驱蚊类、个人护理类产品的研发、生产 和销售。主营业务收入构成为：婴童护理系列产品45.26%，驱蚊系列产品41.92%，精油系列产品 10.29%，其他产品2.47%，其他(补充)0.06%。 截至发稿，李海累计任职时间9年168天，现任基金资产总规模32.75亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 139.47%， 任职期间最差基金回报-21.8%。 数据显示，国泰基金旗下1只基金位居润本股份 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is transitioning from "single functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating enhanced consumer resilience [4] - The beauty industry is no longer reliant on a single traffic window, with narratives around channel efficiency strengthening [4] - Leading brands exhibit stronger resilience, with a positive outlook on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Double 11 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - Beauty and personal care sales reached 991 billion yuan, growing by 11.65% [8] - Instant retail sales surged to 670 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 138.4% [8] Market Dynamics - Tmall leads in high-end beauty sales, while Douyin is becoming a significant platform for domestic brands [8] - The top five beauty brands on Tmall include Proya, Estée Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, with Proya maintaining the top position for three consecutive years [8] - Douyin's beauty sales rankings show Han Shu at the top, followed by Proya and L'Oréal [8] Company Performance - Leading brands like Up Beauty, Ruo Yu Chen, and Mao Ge Ping have shown impressive performance during the Double 11 event [8] - Up Beauty's sales increased by 145% year-on-year, with significant growth on both Tmall and Douyin [8] - Ruo Yu Chen's sales saw a staggering 35-fold increase year-on-year, with Douyin sales growing by over 100% [8]