%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨今世缘（603369.SH） [Table_Title] 今世缘 2024 年中报点评：收入稳健增长，费用 率持续优化 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 今世缘公布 2024 年中报，公司 2024H1 营业总收入 73.05 亿元（同比 +22.35% ）；归母净利润 | | | 24.61 亿元（同比 +20.08% ），扣非净利润 24.46 亿元（同比 +19.23% ）。公司 2024Q2 营业总 收入 26.34 亿元（同比 +21.52% ）；归母净利润 9.29 亿元（同 ...

投资逻辑 引言：周期演绎中，市场对白酒成长性与韧性交替定价。区域酒 的经营韧性在景气震荡时占优，公司能在江苏激烈的竞争中突破 百亿桎梏也印证其进攻性。我们认为公司品牌已起势并赋予经营 惯性，EPS 具备"底线性"，性价比区间推荐布局。 产品布局：四开省内畅销，向产品架构、场景外延要增量。公司 先做减法、聚焦团购打造国缘四开大单品，以其为主的特 A+类产 品 15~23 销量 CAGR 达 29%，目前在 500 元中度赛道规模领先；再 向上&向下辐射，V 系占位加强曝光，对开、雅系等向下夺取价位 红利，特 A 类产品 23 年起加速增长。 追溯国缘四开的培育路径，国缘品牌 04 年创立时便定位高端，场 景主打政商务、企事业团购，从意见领袖入手培育粘性。公司聚 焦团购，经销商数量相对较少、单商体量相对较高、经销商粘性 强。23 年省内单商体量达 1865 万元，明显高于同类区域酒企。在 此基础上，近两年公司顺势而为加快向流通渠道切入的步伐，从 南京、淮安等成熟市场逐步向外，拓宽场景边界谋增量。 区域突破：省内分区精耕+分品提升，省外周边化、板块化外拓。 1）省内细分价位仍有阶段性红利，例如 100~300 元。 ...

Q2 营收符合预期 增长势能有望延续 ——今世缘（603369.SH）半年报点评 食品饮料/白酒 事件： 公司发布 2024 年半年度报告，上半年实现营业收入 73.04 亿元、同比增长 22.36%，归母净利润 24.61 亿元、同比增长 20.08%，扣非归母净利润 24.46 亿元、同比增长 19.23%。其中 Q2 营收 26.34 亿元、同比增长 21.52%，归母净利润 9.29 亿元、同比增长 16.86%，扣非归母净利润 9.21 亿元、同比增长 14.79%。 投资摘要： 24Q2 保持较好的增长势能，特 A 类产品增长较好，苏中延续较高增速。公 司 24Q2 营收同比增长 21.52%，增速较 24Q1 同比增速下降 1.30 个百分 点，增长势能延续。分产品看，24H1 特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类营收分别同比增 长 21.91%/26.05%/14.32%，24Q2 特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类营收分别同比增长 21.07%/25.30%/10.04%。24Q2 公司推进四开控货换代、主动放缓特 A+类 产品的短期上量，特 A 类符合大众消费价格带动销和上量势头良好。分区域 看，2 ...

[Table_Title] 整体经营稳健，增长势能延续 [Table_ReportDate] 今世缘(603369)公司简评报告 | 2024.08.21 [Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 核心观点 [Table_Authors] 赵瑞 分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522120001 zhaorui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Summary] [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 今世缘 沪深300 21-Aug 1-Nov12-Jan 24-Mar 4-Jun15-Aug 资料来源：聚源数据 [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 最新收盘价（元） | 42.99 | | 一年内最高/最低价（元） | 64.69/40.33 | | 市盈率（当前） | 15.20 | | 市净率（当前） | 3.72 | | 总股本（亿股） | 12.54 | | 总市值（亿元） | 539.31 | 资料来源：聚源数据 相 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with continued growth both domestically and externally, achieving a total revenue of 7.305 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.35% [2]. - The growth was primarily driven by products priced over 100 yuan, which accounted for 94.67% of the main business revenue, showing a slight increase of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s net profit for H1 2024 reached 2.461 billion yuan, up 20.08% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 33.70% [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - In H1 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 73.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 24.61 billion yuan. In Q2 2024, revenue was 26.34 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.52% year-on-year [2]. - Revenue from various product categories in H1 2024 was as follows: Special A+ category: 4.654 billion yuan (+21.91%), Special A category: 2.216 billion yuan (+26.05%), A category: 258 million yuan (+14.32%), B category: 82 million yuan (-2.32%), C category: 44 million yuan (-8.14%) [2]. - Revenue growth was consistent across regions, with notable increases in the Suzhong region (32.91%) and the province outside (36.39%) [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company maintained stable profitability with a slight decrease in gross margin to 73.79% in H1 2024, down 0.69 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 33.70%, down 0.63 percentage points [3]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were optimized, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.824 billion yuan, 4.633 billion yuan, and 5.604 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 21.94%, 21.16%, and 20.96% [4][5]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) for these years are estimated at 14, 11, and 9 times, respectively, based on a market capitalization of 51.7 billion yuan [4].

2024 年 08 月 18 日 公司点评 买入/维持 今世缘(603369) 目标价: 70.15 昨收盘:42.99 今世缘：业绩符合预期，后百亿时代稳中有进 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (22%) (14%) (6%) 2% 10% 23/8/17 23/10/2924/1/1024/3/2324/6/424/8/16 今世缘 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 12.54/12.54 总市值/流通(亿元) 539.31/539.31 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 65.68/41.32 相关研究报告 <<今世缘：一季度开门红顺利收官， 开启后百亿征程>>--2024-05-05 <<今世缘：Q3 业绩符合预期，特 A 类 延续亮眼表现>>--2023-11-14 <<今世缘：特 A 类保持快速增长，23 年百亿目标可期>>--2023-08-29 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 研究助理：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030019 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 42.99 CNY and a target price not specified for the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 7.31 billion CNY for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.46 billion CNY, up 20.1% year-on-year, with Q2 2024 revenue at 2.63 billion CNY, a 21.5% increase, and net profit at 930 million CNY, a 16.9% increase, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The product structure continues to upgrade, with significant growth in high-priced products. The revenue from different product categories in Q2 2024 was 1.68 billion CNY (+21.1%) for Special A+ products, 810 million CNY (+25.3%) for Special A products, and 80 million CNY (+10.0%) for A products. The company also saw a remarkable 36.8% growth in revenue from outside the province [2]. - The comprehensive expense ratio decreased, with a gross margin increase of 0.15 percentage points to 70.02%. The sales expense ratio fell by 0.91 percentage points to 12.23%, while the management expense ratio slightly increased by 0.07 percentage points to 3.94%. The overall expense ratio decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 14.96% [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 3.04 CNY, 3.70 CNY, and 4.51 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x. The company benefits from a strong competitive advantage in the domestic market and a nationwide expansion strategy, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [3][4].

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 08[Table_StockInfo 月 16日收盘价（元）] | 42.99 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 41.32-65.68 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 1255/1255 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 53931/53931 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo]《增长势能持续，省外表现亮眼》 | 2024.05.16 | | 《开系焕新升级提价，春节旺销表现亮眼》 | | | 2024.03.02 | | | 《Q3 | | | 2023.11.26 | | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] 今世缘 海通综指 -29.69% -21.69% -13.69% -5.69% 2.31% 2023/8 2023/11 2024/2 2024/5 | --- | --- | --- | ...

股票投资评级 2024 年 8 月 19 日 今世缘(603369) 买入|维持 个股表现 今世缘 食品饮料 -30% -26% -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 2023-08 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-06 2024-08 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 42.99 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 总股本/流通股本（亿股） | 12.54 / 12.54 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元） | 539 / 539 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 65.05 / 42.12 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.6% | | 市盈率 | 17.09 | 第一大股东 今世缘集团有限公司 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 后百亿时代稳健增长，向年度目标稳步推进 ⚫ 事件 公司发布 2024 年半年报，2024 年上半年分别实现营业总收入/ ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2024 年 8 月 19 日 603369.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 42.99 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 今世缘 2024 年半年报业绩点评 股价表现 (28%) (21%) (13%) (5%) 3% 11% Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 今世缘 上证综指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (8.9) (10.5) (23.1) (25.0) 相对上证综指 (6.1) (7.3) (15.4) (16.4) | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------| | 发行股数 (百万) | 1,254.50 | | 流通股 (百万) | 1,254.50 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 53,930.96 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 | 233.08 | | 主要股东 | | | 今世缘集团有限公司 | 44.72 | | 资料来源 ...