Core Viewpoint - The wind power sector is experiencing a significant upward trend in demand and profitability, with a notable performance turnaround in Q1 2025, indicating a potential industry inflection point [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, new wind turbine tenders reached 28.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 23%, reflecting sustained high demand [1][2]. - The wind power equipment sector achieved revenues of 37.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 15.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.25 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 in three years [1][2]. - The overall industry is expected to see a revenue of 192 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.75 billion yuan, down 26.6% year-on-year, indicating a challenging year ahead despite the positive Q1 performance [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Profitability - The profitability of the complete machine manufacturing segment is stabilizing, with a slowdown in power station transfers impacting earnings, highlighting the growing importance of manufacturing profitability [2]. - The average sales price of wind turbines for leading companies is projected to decrease to 1,550 yuan/kW in 2024, with limited further decline expected [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant recovery in the performance of casting and forging companies, driven by revenue structure adjustments and fixed cost amortization during a traditionally low-demand season [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory in revenue and profitability, with key recommendations focusing on companies benefiting from domestic price stabilization and increased revenue from offshore projects, such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy [4]. - Companies in the subsea cable and foundation segments, like Dongfang Cable and Haile Wind Power, are also recommended due to their potential for profit growth driven by high demand [4]. - The casting and blade segments, including Jinlei Co. and Riyue Co., are highlighted for their significant performance elasticity due to supply-demand tightness and price increases [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is experiencing a recovery at the bottom of the land wind cycle, with expectations for price and volume restoration [3] - The domestic public bidding market for wind power has shown a robust growth trend, with a new bidding volume of 28.6 GW in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [7][8] - The average bidding price for wind turbine units in March 2025 was 1590 RMB/kW, up approximately 13% from 1403 RMB/kW in April 2024, indicating a stabilization at the bottom and potential profit recovery for the industry [10] - Strong overseas export data suggests an improvement in international market conditions, with wind turbine exports reaching 146 million USD in March 2025, a month-on-month increase of 86.81% and a year-on-year increase of 50.54% [13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Focus on the recovery of the wind power industry chain, recommending companies such as Goldwind Technology (002202), Mingyang Smart Energy (601615), and others [3] - For offshore wind, attention is drawn to companies with high relevance to offshore wind, including Dongfang Cable (603606) and Zhenjiang Co. (603507) [3] Market Trends - The bidding data for Q1 2025 supports positive expectations for the domestic wind power market, despite concerns about the sustainability of this growth [7][8] - The price recovery trend in the wind turbine market is expected to lay the groundwork for profit recovery across the industry [10] Export Performance - The international market for wind turbines is anticipated to improve, with significant growth in export volumes and bidding successes for Chinese manufacturers [13]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the wind power equipment sector, indicating an industry turning point in Q1 2025 with expected revenue and profit growth [3]. Core Insights - The wind power sector faced revenue and profit pressure in 2024 due to a deflationary cycle, with total revenue of 192 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 5.75 billion yuan, down 26.6% [2][20][23]. - Q1 2025 marked a recovery with a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.25 billion yuan, up 2.8%, indicating the first positive year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 in three years [2][26][30]. - The report highlights the importance of manufacturing profitability as the transfer of power stations slows down, with a focus on the manufacturing segment's increasing significance [2][3]. - The report identifies three key investment themes: 1) Equipment manufacturers benefiting from price stabilization and increased revenue from offshore projects, recommending companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy; 2) Companies in the submarine cable and foundation segments benefiting from high demand and overseas orders, recommending Dongfang Cable and Haile Wind Power; 3) Companies in the casting and blade segments with significant profit elasticity due to supply-demand tightness, recommending Jinlei Co. and Riyue Co. [3]. Summary by Sections Demand Review - The report notes a robust demand foundation with a 10% year-on-year increase in new wind power installations in 2024, totaling 87 GW, despite a decline in offshore wind installations [2][8]. - Q1 2025 saw accelerated offshore wind project starts, with 14.6 GW of new wind power connected to the grid, indicating a positive trend [8][9]. Financial Review - The financial performance in 2024 was under pressure, with a revenue of 192 billion yuan and a net profit of 57.5 billion yuan, reflecting a challenging market environment [20][23]. - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue and profit showed signs of recovery, with a revenue of 372 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan, marking a significant improvement [26][30]. Segment Analysis - The report highlights that the profitability of the complete machine manufacturing segment is stabilizing, while the tower and foundation segments face profitability challenges due to price declines and demand fluctuations [2][3]. - The casting and forging segments showed significant recovery in Q1 2025, benefiting from improved demand and pricing adjustments [39][44]. Price Trends - Wind turbine prices stabilized in Q4 2024, with a slight recovery in Q1 2025, indicating a potential end to the downward price trend [16][44]. - The report anticipates that as the market stabilizes, companies will see improved profitability from price adjustments in key components like casting and blades [44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The wind power industry is experiencing a recovery at the bottom of the land wind cycle, with expectations for price and volume restoration [3] - The domestic public bidding market for wind power has shown a robust growth trend, with a new bidding volume of 28.6 GW in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [7][8] - The average bidding price for wind turbine units in March 2025 was 1590 RMB/kW, up approximately 13% from 1403 RMB/kW in April 2024, indicating a stabilization at the bottom and potential profit recovery for the industry [10] - Strong overseas export data suggests an improvement in international market conditions, with wind turbine exports reaching 146 million USD in March 2025, a month-on-month increase of 86.81% and a year-on-year increase of 50.54% [13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Focus on the recovery of the wind power industry chain, suggesting attention to companies such as Goldwind Technology (002202), Mingyang Smart Energy (601615), and others [3] - For offshore wind, companies with high relevance to offshore wind segments such as Dongfang Cable (603606) and Zhenjiang Co. (603507) are recommended [3] Market Trends - The bidding data for Q1 2025 supports positive expectations for the domestic land wind market, despite concerns about the sustainability of this growth [7][8] - The price stabilization of wind turbine units is expected to lay the groundwork for profit recovery across the industry [10] Export Performance - The international market for wind turbines is anticipated to improve, with significant growth in export volumes and bidding successes for Chinese manufacturers [13]

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The offshore wind sector is expected to experience a significant performance boost in 2025, driven by both domestic and European demand [2][33] - The report highlights that the offshore wind segment is one of the few areas projected to achieve over 50% growth in the coming year, unaffected by US-China trade tensions [2] - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of leading cable manufacturers, particularly in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and export orders, which enhance their market position [2] Summary by Sections Domestic Offshore Wind - In 2025, a new wave of installation is anticipated, with an expected addition of 12 GW, representing a 200% year-on-year increase [2] - The report forecasts that by 2030, China's total offshore wind capacity will reach 200 GW [2] - Concerns regarding growth in 2026 are addressed, with expectations of 18 GW of new installations, a 50% increase year-on-year [2][38] Overseas Offshore Wind - Europe is identified as the largest market for offshore wind, with an expected addition of 4.5 GW in 2025 and a total of 48 GW from 2025 to 2030 [2][42] - The report notes that the European offshore wind market is set to see a significant uptick, with a projected 70%+ increase in installations in 2025 [46] Submarine Cables - The competitive edge of submarine cable manufacturers lies in their technology, performance qualifications, and port layouts [2] - The report indicates that the share of cable investment in deep-sea projects is expected to rise from 12% to 16% due to industry inflation [5][7] - The importance of submarine cables as the "blood vessels" of offshore wind energy transmission is emphasized, highlighting their critical role in ensuring safety and stability [8][12] Market Dynamics - The report outlines that the domestic offshore wind market is experiencing a surge in project approvals and construction, with significant orders expected in 2025 [38][39] - The report also discusses the increasing demand for floating wind technology, with various countries setting ambitious targets for offshore wind capacity by 2030 [51][52] Future Trends - The report identifies a trend towards higher voltage levels in submarine cables due to the increasing size of wind farms [13][21] - It also notes that flexible direct current (DC) transmission is becoming the preferred method for long-distance offshore wind energy transmission [18][22]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board companies have shown resilience and stability in their performance, supported by a series of incremental policies, reflecting a robust economic structure in China [1] Group 1: Export Market Diversification - In 2024, companies on the Shanghai main board achieved overseas revenue of 6.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with non-US exports accounting for over 80% [2] - Key export destinations include ASEAN, Africa, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with significant growth in sales for companies like SANY Heavy Industry and SAIC Motor [2] - Major construction state-owned enterprises have actively expanded overseas, signing new orders worth 1.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% [2] Group 2: High-Tech Product Exports - High-tech products such as high-end equipment, integrated circuits, smart home appliances, and electric vehicles have accelerated exports, leading to revenue growth in related industries [3] - Companies like Oriental Cable and Zhaoyi Innovation have made significant strides in international markets, with Zhaoyi Innovation achieving record high shipments [3] - The rise of new business models like cross-border e-commerce has boosted overseas sales for various sectors, including light manufacturing and retail [3] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions Activity - From 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, over 1,500 new M&A transactions were recorded on the Shanghai main board, with a total transaction value exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [4] - Notable M&A cases include Guotai Junan's acquisition of Haitong Securities and China Shipbuilding's proposed merger with China CSSC, each exceeding 100 billion yuan [4] - The trend of private acquisitions and the purchase of quality non-profitable assets has emerged, indicating a shift in M&A strategies [4][5] Group 4: Quality Improvement and Efficiency - By 2024, 946 companies on the Shanghai main board disclosed "quality improvement and efficiency return" action plans, with nearly 60% participation [6] - Among the companies that disclosed plans, nearly 90% achieved profitability, and almost 50% reported performance growth [6] - The total cash dividend announced by 1,259 companies reached 1.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a dividend payout ratio of 39% [7] Group 5: ESG Reporting and Progress - In 2024, 1,068 companies on the Shanghai main board disclosed ESG reports, achieving a disclosure rate of approximately 63%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The number of companies included in the MSCI ESG rating increased, with 90 companies receiving upgrades in their ratings [9] - Companies have actively engaged in social responsibility initiatives, contributing to employment and environmental sustainability [10] Group 6: Index Investment Growth - In 2024, net inflows into ETFs on the Shanghai main board reached nearly 840 billion yuan, with significant participation from foreign capital [11] - The trading volume of ETFs ranked first in Asia, with a total trading amount of nearly 30 trillion yuan [11] - Foreign investment preferences are concentrated in sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and public utilities, indicating a strategic focus on stable industries [12] Group 7: Exit Mechanisms and Risk Mitigation - Since 2025, 19 companies on the Shanghai main board have faced various forms of delisting, with a significant portion resulting from financial issues [13] - The introduction of diverse exit channels, including voluntary delisting and asset restructuring, has become more prominent [13] - Companies have actively taken measures to improve operations and mitigate risks, with several successfully lifting delisting warnings [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 2.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.8% [5] - The company is entering a peak period for both orders and deliveries, with a record order backlog of 18.9 billion yuan as of April 21, 2025 [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic offshore wind development and the realization of overseas orders [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, and a non-net profit of 270 million yuan, up 28.2% year-on-year [5] - The revenue from submarine cables and high-voltage cables increased by 219% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [6] - The company’s revenue from power engineering and equipment cables was 885 million yuan, a 53% increase year-on-year [6] Order Backlog and Future Prospects - The order backlog reached a new high of 18.9 billion yuan, with 11.5 billion yuan in submarine and high-voltage cable orders [6] - The company has significant upcoming projects, including 500kV and DC submarine cable orders totaling 5 billion yuan, which are expected to drive profitability in 2025 and 2026 [6] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.86 billion yuan, 14.01 billion yuan, and 16.84 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.73 billion yuan, 2.18 billion yuan, and 2.73 billion yuan [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.093 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.008 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.38% and 0.81% respectively [7][14] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.147 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 63.83% [7][9] - The company has seen a strong growth in land cable business and a record high in submarine cable orders, indicating robust demand in the market [14][15] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 7.310 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.955 billion yuan in 2025E, with a CAGR of 31% [2][38] - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.000 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.656 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 64% [2][38] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 34.9 in 2023 to 21.1 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation metrics [2][38] Business Performance - The land cable system revenue reached 5.416 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.52%, contributing 59.57% to total revenue [22] - The submarine cable system revenue was 2.778 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.41% year-on-year [14] - The company has a strong order backlog, with approximately 8.827 billion yuan in submarine cable orders as of March 21, 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 180% [15][16] Market Outlook - The domestic market for offshore wind power still has significant room for growth, with expectations of a surge in installations in the near term [15] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for offshore wind projects, with a comprehensive solution for marine engineering [16][22] - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in high-grade land cables, which could improve profit margins in the future [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 2.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 63.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.3% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 280 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 269.4% [7] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.4%, with a slight decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter but an increase of 10.9 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has reached a record high in its order backlog, amounting to approximately 18.9 billion yuan as of April 21, 2025 [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7.31 billion yuan - 2024: 9.09 billion yuan (24.38% YoY) - 2025: 10.87 billion yuan (19.50% YoY) - 2026: 13.15 billion yuan (21.00% YoY) - 2027: 15.51 billion yuan (18.00% YoY) [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 1.00 billion yuan - 2024: 1.01 billion yuan (0.81% YoY) - 2025: 1.60 billion yuan (58.82% YoY) - 2026: 2.15 billion yuan (34.38% YoY) - 2027: 2.66 billion yuan (23.50% YoY) [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: - 2023: 1.45 yuan - 2024: 1.47 yuan - 2025: 2.33 yuan - 2026: 3.13 yuan - 2027: 3.86 yuan [1][8] Business Segmentation - The company has adjusted its product classification to better align with market demands, focusing on: - Power engineering and equipment cables (green transmission facilities) - Submarine cables and high-voltage cables (power new energy) - Marine equipment and engineering operations [7] - Revenue from submarine cables and high-voltage cables reached 1.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 219% [7] - Revenue from power engineering and equipment cables was 885 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.28% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Cable [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 2.15 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 63.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.3% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 280 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 269.4% [7] - The company has achieved a record high in its order backlog, amounting to approximately 18.9 billion yuan as of April 21, 2025 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 7.31 billion yuan (2023A), 9.09 billion yuan (2024A), 10.87 billion yuan (2025E), 13.15 billion yuan (2026E), and 15.51 billion yuan (2027E), with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 24.38%, 19.5%, 21%, and 18% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1 billion yuan (2023A), 1.008 billion yuan (2024A), 1.601 billion yuan (2025E), 2.152 billion yuan (2026E), and 2.657 billion yuan (2027E), with year-on-year growth rates of 18.78%, 0.81%, 58.82%, 34.38%, and 23.5% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.45 yuan (2023A), 1.47 yuan (2024A), 2.33 yuan (2025E), 3.13 yuan (2026E), and 3.86 yuan (2027E) [1] Order Backlog and Business Segmentation - The order backlog includes approximately 11.5 billion yuan for submarine cables and high-voltage cables, 4.4 billion yuan for power engineering and equipment cables, and 3 billion yuan for marine equipment and engineering operations [7] - The revenue from submarine cables and high-voltage cables reached 1.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 219%, driven by international brand expansion and stable growth in export revenue [7] - Revenue from power engineering and equipment cables was 885 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.28% due to enhanced brand influence and market share expansion [7]