Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - Domestic sales under pressure due to real estate downturn and weak demand, while foreign trade continues to grow [1] - Q3 revenue declined by 6.9% YoY to 4.89 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 19.9% YoY to 460 million [1] - Gross margin slightly decreased, but expense ratios improved [1] - The "trade-in" policy is expected to stimulate domestic demand and improve domestic sales in Q4 [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 13.8 billion, down 2.4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.36 billion, down 9.5% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 4.89 billion, down 6.9% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 460 million, down 19.9% YoY [1] Profitability - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin was 31.9%, down 0.5 pct YoY, with net margin at 9.8%, down 0.8 pct YoY [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 29.8%, down 4.0 pct YoY, with net margin at 9.7%, down 1.4 pct YoY [1] Expense Ratios - Q1-Q3 2024 sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios were 15.9%/2.2%/1.8%/0.1%, with sales expense ratio down 0.3 pct YoY [1] - Q3 2024 sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios were 17.9%, down 2.7 pct YoY, with sales expense ratio down 2.4 pct YoY [1] Industry and Policy Impact - The "trade-in" policy, supported by 150 billion in special treasury bonds, is expected to boost domestic demand in Q4 [1] - The company launched a nationwide "trade-in season" in September, offering up to 2,000 yuan in subsidies to consumers [1] Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profit Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 19.0/20.7/22.4 billion, with YoY changes of -1.1%/8.8%/8.4% [2] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts are 1.85/2.09/2.30 billion, with YoY changes of -7.6%/12.6%/10.1% [2] Key Financial Ratios - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 2.26/2.54/2.80 yuan, with PE ratios of 14.7/13.0/11.8x [2] - 2024-2026 ROE forecasts are 17.7%/18.5%/19.0%, with EBIT margins of 11.1%/12.5%/13.2% [2] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 EV/EBITDA forecasts are 13.2/11.1/9.8x, with P/B ratios of 2.60/2.41/2.25 [2] Historical Performance Revenue and Profit Trends - 2018-2023 revenue grew from 18.0 billion to 19.2 billion, with a CAGR of 1.3% [6] - 2018-2023 net profit attributable to shareholders grew from 1.81 billion to 2.01 billion, with a CAGR of 2.1% [8] Profitability Trends - 2018-2023 gross margin fluctuated between 31% and 33%, with net margin ranging from 9.8% to 10.2% [9] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 29.8%, down 4.0 pct YoY, with net margin at 9.7%, down 1.4 pct YoY [1]

公司报告 | 季报点评 财务数据和估值 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 乐观展望以旧换新催化 公司发布 2024 年三季度报告 24Q3 公司实现收入48.9 亿元，同比-6.9%；归母净利润4.6 亿元，同比-19.9%； 扣非归母净利润 4.4 亿元，同比-16.9%；毛利率 29.8%，同比-4pct，归母净 利率 9.5%，同比-1.5pct。 24Q1-3 公司实现收入 138.0 亿元，同比-2.4%；归母净利润 13.6 亿元，同 比-9.5%；扣非归母净利润 12.2 亿元，同比-10.7%；毛利率 31.9%，同比 -0.5pct，归母净利率 9.8%，同比-0.8pct。 我们预计收入下滑主要系内销复苏缓慢且剥离天禧派影响，利润受到汇兑 损益减少影响。 9 月以来公司积极响应国家政策落实以旧换新补贴，9 月 9 日举行"以旧换 新季"启动仪式推出"拉旧不花钱，换新再省钱"政策，在各地政策优惠 基础上，消费者以旧换新可再享最高 2000 元购物津贴，同时开启惠民焕新 工程第 3 期活动；我们预计 Q4 经营有望改善。 外销：丰富业务形态，预计经营利润率提升 公司外贸进 ...

轻工制造/家居用品 公 司 研 究 顾家家居（603816.SH） 2024 年 10 月 30 日 2024Q3 内销阶段承压，看好以旧换新驱动回暖 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/10/30 | | 当前股价 ( 元 ) | 32.27 | | 一年最高最低 ( 元 ) | 40.99/21.44 | | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 265.22 | | 流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 265.22 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 8.22 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 8.22 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 72.63 | 股价走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 顾家家居 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2023 营收业绩稳健增长，聚焦提 效育能成长可期—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.5.6 | --- | --- | --- | |------------- ...

发布了前三季度的业绩我们知道今年大环境下行业内的公司经营都有一定的压力但我们看到互加的经营还是非常稳健的结构上像是外销等等的表现其实也可圈可点那么展望后续其实近期我们在产业链的调研里面看到9月底以来随着已就换新走政策的逐步落地中端的客流包括我们监控的一些企业的订单其实也都出现明显的改善趋势 顾佳在已就换新方面推进节奏的转换上方可能法语上也会做一些分享所以我们还是持续看好公司后续经营上好的态势中长期来看我们也知道公司现阶段坚持一体两益的策略持续推进营销转型 增加转型我们也持续看好公司的长期的竞争优势 今天的交流会我们是非常荣幸的邀请到了公司的董秘 陈总和黄总来到线上来为大家分享公司近期的经营的情况包括后续的一些基本面的展望我想经营层面的数据经过昨天到今天可能各位投资人也都了解的非常清楚了所以我们今天的这一场会议会直接以问答的形式去开启也欢迎在线的各位投资人可以引用提问我们先来请会议秘书帮忙播报一下提问方式 嗯 陈总 黄总 然后呃 反正趁着大家抛这个举手的这个时间我先来你问一个关于这个大家也早关心可能目前这个宇宙换星的这个进程啊可能也一个来月的时间那咱们顾佳琪在这方面也也也推出了一系列的活动所以想请陈总能不能帮忙 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's foreign trade business continues to grow, with the "1+N+X" channel strategy steadily advancing [2] - Despite a decline in domestic sales due to weak real estate market conditions, the company has secured large-volume orders in advantageous categories through strategic partnerships, leading to growth in foreign sales [4] - The company's customized business is experiencing rapid growth, supported by product and store optimization, as well as the transformation of the whole-home empowerment system [4] - The company is accelerating the integration of large stores and promoting the development of a full-category home furnishing strategy, with the number of comprehensive stores continuously increasing and retail capabilities strengthening [5] - The company's gross profit margin has declined, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin domestic sales and an increase in low-margin foreign sales [5] - The company's valuation is at a historical low, and it is expected to continue gaining market share as a leading soft furnishing company, exploring innovative business models [5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 460 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 13.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [3] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5 percentage points, and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 9.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [5] - In Q3 2024, the company's operating cash flow was 920 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7% [5] Financial Forecasts - The report revises the company's 2024 revenue forecast downward to 18.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.3%, while maintaining the 2025-2026 revenue forecasts [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.82 billion yuan, 2.05 billion yuan, and 2.36 billion yuan, respectively, with downward revisions of 11.8%, 7.7%, and 4.7% [5] - The EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 2.21 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 2.87 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 11x [5] Expense Management - The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - In Q3 2024, the company's expense ratio was 17.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7 percentage points, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 2.4 percentage points [6] - The increase in the financial expense ratio is mainly attributed to reduced foreign exchange gains, with the average USD/RMB exchange rate in Q3 2024 at 7.17, a decrease of 0.08 yuan compared to Q3 2023 [6] Historical Financial Data - The company's revenue in 2022 and 2023 was 18.01 billion yuan and 19.21 billion yuan, respectively, with a growth rate of -1.81% and 6.67% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 and 2023 was 1.81 billion yuan and 2.01 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 8.87% and 10.70% [7] - The ROE (diluted) for 2022 and 2023 was 20.40% and 20.88%, respectively [7]

顾家家居（603816.SH） 家居用品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 27 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 28 年 月 日 顾家家居（603816.SH） 外销改善，内销承压，以旧换新有望驱动回暖 公司发布 2024 年三季报：24Q3 公司实现收入 48.93 亿元（同比-6.9%， 剔除外床&天禧派影响下滑幅度预计收窄），归母净利润 4.63 亿元（同比19.9%），扣非归母净利润 4.38 亿元（同比-16.9%），利润端剔除汇兑影 响下滑幅度预计收窄。 内销：延续承压，零售转型。我们预计 24Q3 公司内销收入下滑双位数以 上，其中沙发下滑明显，床类延续双位数下滑、下滑幅度环比收敛，定制 延续正增长。我们判断 24Q3 融合大店延续稳步扩张，整家定制门店保持 扩张，渠道结构持续优化。公司大力推动"以旧换新"政策配合力度，推 出专供产品，满足消费者家居生活改善性的换新需求，同时完善旧产品处 理体系。 外销：效率提升，稳健发展。我们预计 24Q3 公司外销收入保持双位数增 长、剔除外床影响后增速预计更快、沙发预计保持较快增长。越南公司加 速发展、生产规模及运营效率显著提升，美国（床垫）工厂本土化运营、 产能持续爬坡。公司聚焦重点国家地区（北 ...

· 来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 顾家家居 (603816.SH) 买入(维持评级) 公司点评 证券研究报告 业绩简评 10 月 27 日公司发布 24 年三季报，24 年前三季度公司营收/归母 净利/扣非净利分别同比-2.4%/-9.5%/-10.7%至 138.0/13.6/12.2 亿元，其中24Q3单季度营收/归母净利/扣非净利分别同比-6.9%/- 19.9%/-16.9%至 48.9/4.6/4.4 亿元。 经营分析 预计外销延续增长，内销短期承压：分区域来看，公司外销依托海 外客户持续拓展叠加海外产能优势，外销业务 Q3 在整体家具行业 出口放缓的背景下，预计依然延续相对较优增长。而内销方面，根 据国金数字 LAB 统计，国内家居卖场客流量指数三季度环比进一 步走弱，预计终端需求 Q3 同比相对较弱，并且相关以旧换新补贴 政策仍未显著在 Q3 体现，整体预计公司 Q3 内销业务继续承压。 收入结构变化拉低毛利率，费用管控相对较优：公司 24 年前三季 度毛利率同比-0.5pct 至 31.9%。费用率方面，公司 24 年前三季 度销售/管理（含研发）/财务费用率分别同比-0.3/+0.4/+0 ...

资料来源：中国银河证券研究 公司点评报告 ·轻工行业 核心品类呈现韧性,整家定制快速成长 核心观点 ● 事件:公司发布 2024年三季报,24年前9月公司实现营业收入138.1亿元, 同比-2.4%; 归母净利润 13.6 亿元,同比-9.5%。其中 24Q3 实现营业收入 48.9 亿元,同比-6.9%;归母净利润 4.6 亿元,同比-19.9%。 ● 内销依旧承压,外销延续增长。分区域看,我们推测24Q3外销收入仍延续 上半年增长趋势,内销受国内地产下行压力不利影响,需求短期仍承压,且 Q3 环比 Q2 未见明显好转。外销收入增长导致的结构性占比提升致公司盈利能力 短期受损,但得益于公司对海外市场的积极拓展,收入端仍呈现韧性。 ● 核心品类收入规韧性,定制业务快速成长。分品类看,核心品类沙发得益于 外贸渠道收入增长,整体实现稳健增长;卧室产品收入承压;定制家具收入在 较低基数下维持较快增长,公司通过产品/店态迭代优化以及整家赋能体系变 革持续增强终端门店竞争力,推动向大家居方向转型。 门店数量方面,新店开拓/旧店升级进展顺利,整家定制门店的拓展进一步保 持中高速增长、融合大店的开店速度亦提速,占比进一步提 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告内容的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）保证季度报告中财务信息的真 实、准确、完整。 第三季度财务报表是否经审计 □是 √否 一、主要财务数据 （一）主要会计数据和财务指标 单位：元 币种：人民币 注："本报告期"指本季度初至本季度末3个月期间，下同。 （二）非经常性损益项目和金额 √适用 □不适用 单位:元 币种:人民币 对公司将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号一一非经常性损益》未列举的项目认定为的 非经常性损益项目且金额重大的，以及将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号一一非经常 性损益》中列举的非经常性损益项目界定为经常性损益的项目，应说明原因。 □适用 √不适用 （三）主要会计数据、财务指标发生变动的情况、原因 □适用 √不适用 二、股东信息 （一）普通股股东总数和表 ...