Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the third quarter of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 96.4%, reaching 56.08 billion yuan, despite a slight decline in total revenue [5] - The production of copper and cobalt has shown a steady increase, with copper production reaching 543,000 tons, up 14.1% year-on-year, and cobalt production at 88,000 tons, up 3.8% [8] - The KFM Phase II project is expected to be completed and operational by 2027, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD, which will enhance the company's production capacity [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 50.713 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.36% year-on-year, while net profit for the first three quarters reached 142.8 billion yuan, an increase of 72.61% [5] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 192.65 billion, 224.57 billion, and 247.08 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on performance [8] Production and Pricing - The average price of copper in Q3 was 79,500 yuan per ton, up 2.34% from the previous quarter, while cobalt prices rose by 11.42% to 266,800 yuan per ton [8] - The gross margin for cobalt reached 63.46%, an increase of 26.97 percentage points year-on-year, while copper's gross margin was 54.07%, up 1.73 percentage points [8] Future Outlook - The expansion of overseas copper and cobalt mining projects is expected to steadily increase production, enhancing the company's growth potential [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from higher metal prices due to its cost advantages, which may lead to greater earnings elasticity [8]

Core Insights - CMOC Group reported record high results for 3Q25, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing 73% YoY to Rmb14.3 billion, driven by increased sales volume and prices of metal products [1] Financial Performance - In 1–3Q25, revenue decreased by 6% YoY to Rmb145.5 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 73% YoY to Rmb14.3 billion [1] - For 3Q25, revenue fell 2% YoY but rose 4% QoQ to Rmb50.7 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing 96% YoY and 19% QoQ to Rmb5.6 billion [1] - Copper and cobalt output rose 14% and 4% YoY, respectively, in 1–3Q25, meeting 86% and 80% of the firm's annual guidance [1] Sales and Pricing - Copper sales volume increased by 11% YoY, while cobalt sales volume fell by 36% YoY in 1–3Q25, primarily due to a cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [1] - Average prices for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphorus rose by 4%, 15%, 7%, 30%, 8%, and 20% YoY, respectively, in 1–3Q25 [1] Strategic Developments - The firm announced the Phase II KFM project, targeting an annual copper production capacity of 800,000 to 1 million tons, expected to start production in 2027 [2] - A significant equity incentive plan was proposed to issue 393 million H shares to retain core talent [3] Market Dynamics - Tightening supply and demand dynamics are expected to push up cobalt prices, with the DRC's cobalt quota for 2026/27 accounting for 44% of its 2024 output [4] - The company holds the highest local market quota for cobalt, which is projected to account for 32% of the total local quota and 29% of its 2024 sales volume [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 26.6% and 32.0%, respectively, to Rmb20.67 billion and Rmb27.25 billion [5] - A-share stock is trading at 17.4x 2025e and 13.2x 2026e P/E, while H-share stock is trading at 15.4x 2025e and 11.5x 2026e P/E [5] - Target prices for A-shares and H-shares have been raised by 41% to Rmb20.4 and HK$19.7, respectively, implying a 21.6% upside [5]

+4%/+15%/+7%/+30%/+8%/+20%。 发展趋势 KFM 二期规划发布，组织升级叠加股权激励，剑指世界一流矿企。据公告，一是公司围绕80-100 万吨 的铜年产能目标，发布KFM 二期项目规划，公司预计于2027 年投产，达产后新增年平均10 万吨铜金 属。二是继今年4 月份4 位新高管的任命后，公司此次任命先进制造业资深高管彭旭辉先生担任总裁及 CEO，组织升级落下关键一子。三是公司于9 月23 日晚发布重磅股权激励计划，拟推出涵盖3.93 亿港股 的激励计划，绑定核心人才。 机构：中金公司 研究员：何曼文/齐丁/陈彦 3Q25 业绩创同期历史新高，超出我们预期 公司公布3Q25 业绩：1-3Q25 实现营业收入1455 亿元，同比-6%，归母净利润143 亿元，同比+73%。 3Q25 实现营业收入507 亿元，同/环比-2%/+4%；归母净利润56 亿元，同/环比+96%/+19%。业绩超出我 们预期主要系多数金属产品量价齐升。 产量方面，前三季度铜/钴产量同比+14%/+4%，占年度指引中值为86%/80%；其他产品产量占年度指引 中值均超75%。销量方面，前三季度铜/钴销量同比+11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance has been positively impacted by the significant increase in copper and cobalt prices, leading to a rise in overall profitability [3] - The gross profit margin for the mining segment reached 53%, with copper and cobalt contributing 70% and 13% to the gross profit, respectively [3] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 73% [3] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards due to the rise in copper and cobalt prices, with net profits projected at 18.8 billion, 25.5 billion, and 29.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company reported total revenue of 145.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while the net profit for Q3 2025 was 5.61 billion yuan, up 96.4% year-on-year [8][3] - The company’s copper production reached 543,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, achieving 86% of its annual target [8][3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.88 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.06 [1][9]

Group 1 - The TC benchmark is significantly lowered in 2025, leading to relaxed mining costs and a notable increase in copper prices, with copper mine profits potentially maintaining a high level of 60% since 2024, despite a downward trend in copper mine supply growth [1] - The overall copper mine production growth for 2025 is expected to be around -0.12%, indicating a downward adjustment compared to early 2024 [1][2] - The high interference rate in global copper mining, combined with cautious expansion and high production costs, suggests that long-term growth may not be optimistic, with a projected growth rate of about 2% for 2026 [2] Group 2 - China's copper mine reserves account for only 4% of the global total, while its production share is 8%, highlighting an imbalance in extraction and resource scarcity, prompting companies to expand into resource-rich regions [3] - Chinese copper mining companies are increasingly extending their operations into Africa and South America through mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures to bolster reserves amid high costs and resource protectionism [3] - Infrastructure development is continuously improving, enhancing production and transportation efficiency to achieve long-term cost reduction [3] Group 3 - Recommended companies to focus on include Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Minmetals Resources (01208), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), Jincheng Mining (603979.SH), and Western Mining (601168.SH) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.6% to 14.28 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.71 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96.4% [1]. - The company has exceeded its production targets for copper and other products, with copper production reaching 540,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company’s operating income was 145.49 billion yuan, with a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 14.54 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company’s operating costs decreased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, and the overall recovery rate improved from approximately 88% to 91% [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 19.5 billion yuan, 23.7 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.10, and 1.17 [7]. Production and Pricing Insights - The company’s copper production in Q3 2025 was 190,000 tons, a 4% increase from the previous quarter, while diamond production decreased by 12% to 27,000 tons [2]. - The LME copper price in Q3 2025 increased by 4% to 9,864 USD/ton, while domestic prices for other products also saw significant increases [2]. - The company is actively expanding its copper production capacity with ongoing projects, including the TFM and KFM expansions, which are expected to significantly boost future output [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.6% to 14.28 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.71 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96.4% [1]. - The company has exceeded production targets for copper and other products, with copper production reaching 540,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2025, the company reported a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, a 72.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan in Q3, a 96.4% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for Q1-3 2025 was 145.49 billion yuan, with a Q3 revenue of 50.71 billion yuan [1]. Production and Sales - The company’s copper production in Q3 2025 was 190,000 tons, a 4% increase from the previous quarter, while diamond production decreased by 12% to 27,000 tons [2]. - The company achieved a production completion rate of 80% for copper and 79% for diamonds in the first three quarters [2]. Pricing and Cost Management - The LME copper price increased by 4% to 9,864 USD/ton in Q3 2025, while domestic tungsten prices surged by 40% to 330,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The company successfully reduced operating costs by 0.5% in Q3 2025, with overall recovery rates improving from approximately 88% to 91% [2]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing new projects, including the expansion of TFM and KFM copper production, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD for KFM's second phase, expected to be operational by 2027 [7]. - The company anticipates net profits of 19.5 billion yuan, 23.7 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.10, and 1.17 [7].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's long position in Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group Co., Ltd. - H shares decreased from 6.1% to 5.98% on October 23, 2025 [1]

Core Points - The gold concept sector experienced a decline of 1.55%, ranking among the top losers in the market [1] - Major stocks within the gold concept sector, such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Zijin Mining, saw significant net outflows of capital [2][3] Market Performance - The gold concept sector had a net outflow of 5.115 billion yuan, with 59 stocks experiencing capital outflows, and 13 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net outflows were Luoyang Molybdenum Co. (-624 million yuan), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (-516 million yuan), and Zijin Mining (-477 million yuan) [2][3] Stock Movements - Among the gold concept stocks, 15 stocks recorded price increases, with the top gainers being Cuihua Jewelry (+5.86%), Ningbo Zhongbai (+4.60%), and Wolong New Energy (+4.25%) [1][3] - The overall performance of the gold sector was negatively impacted by significant declines in stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (-10.07%) and Yunnan Copper (-5.63%) [2][3] ETF Information - The gold stock ETF (product code: 159562) tracking the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index has seen a decline of 6.87% over the past five days, with a current PE ratio of 24.15 [5]

Group 1 - The metal nickel sector experienced a decline of 1.37%, ranking among the top losers in the market, with notable declines from companies such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Huayou Cobalt [1][2] - Among the companies in the nickel sector, Huayou Cobalt saw a significant net outflow of 1.235 billion yuan, leading the sector in capital outflow [2][3] - Conversely, Xiamen Xinda, Huanxin Environmental Protection, and Tianqi Co., Ltd. were among the few stocks that increased, with gains of 7.73%, 5.57%, and 1.54% respectively [1][4] Group 2 - The overall capital outflow from the metal nickel sector amounted to 3.444 billion yuan, with 30 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 6 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2][3] - The top three companies with the highest capital outflows included Huayou Cobalt (-1.235 billion yuan), Luoyang Molybdenum (-624 million yuan), and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (-516 million yuan) [2][3] - In contrast, the stocks with the highest net inflows included Xiamen Xinda (28.28 million yuan), Tianqi Co., Ltd. (23.44 million yuan), and Xiangtan Electrochemical (23.11 million yuan) [2][3][4]