| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3505 | -0.42 | 3.79 | 0.22 | | 深证综指 | 2119 | -0.06 | 5.88 | 0.78 | | 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | （％） | | 大盘指数 | 0.04 | 3.93 | 5.85 | | 中盘指数 | 0.21 | 5.3 | 6.19 | | 小盘指数 | -0.04 | 5.05 | 10.98 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | 通信设备 | 6.19 | 20.07 | 24.72 | | 通信设备 | 6.19 | 20.07 | 24.72 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元件Ⅱ | 5.35 | 28.48 | 35.74 | | 消费电子 | 1.74 | 10.61 | ...

◎记者 王乔琪 紫金矿业预计今年上半年盈利232亿元，洛阳钼业预计上半年盈利82亿元至91亿元，西部黄金、山东黄 金、中润资源、华钰矿业等预计业绩增幅上限均超过100%……近期，上市矿企频频报喜。 支撑矿企业绩大增的，是主营产品量价齐升。据统计，今年上半年，金、铜、钴等价格均呈上涨态势， 其中黄金价格年内涨幅超过25%。紫金矿业、洛阳钼业纷纷出手并购金矿，拓展资源版图，同时加快旗 下项目的建设进度，释放产量赶上这一轮行情。 量价齐升矿企预喜 近期，10余家上市矿企密集发布半年度业绩预告，主营产品量价齐升成为关键词。 紫金矿业以232亿元预盈规模拔得头筹，同比增长54%。这一盈利水平已超越2023年全年，创下同期历 史新高。此外，公司预计今年第二季度实现归母净利润约130亿元，相比一季度增加约28亿元，环比增 长约27% 紧随其后的是洛阳钼业，预计上半年实现归母净利润82亿元至91亿元，同比增长51.37%至67.98%。以 预测下限计算，公司上半年盈利与2023年全年基本持平，达到2024年全年的61%。 从产量上看，两大矿业巨头主要产品产量任务均已过半。紫金矿业今年上半年实现矿产铜57万吨、矿产 金41吨， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the steel industry is experiencing manageable inventory pressure, indicating limited supply-demand conflicts. The recovery in raw material prices provides support for prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment boosts market confidence, leading to expectations of a strong fluctuation in steel prices in the short term [3][16]. - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but U.S. tariff policies increase trade uncertainty, which may put pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - The aluminum market faces macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory supports prices. However, weak downstream demand during the off-season is expected to lead to price fluctuations [3][46]. - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - The lithium market is under pressure from potential oversupply, despite the "anti-involution" sentiment providing some support for prices [3][52]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is facing limited supply-demand conflicts, with inventory pressure being manageable. The raw material price recovery is expected to support prices, and the "anti-involution" sentiment is boosting market confidence, leading to expectations of strong fluctuations in steel prices [3][16]. - As of July 11, the total steel inventory was 13.33 million tons, down 0.03% from the previous week and down 23.26% year-on-year [25]. - The average price index for steel on July 11 was 3,428.49 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.14% increase from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices. However, the U.S. tariff policy adds trade uncertainty, potentially putting pressure on copper prices in the short term [3][39]. - On July 11, the LME copper price was 9,600 USD/ton, down 3.34% from the previous week [44]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing price support. The report anticipates price fluctuations due to weak downstream demand during the off-season [3][46]. - On July 11, the LME aluminum price was 2,600 USD/ton, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [47]. Precious Metals - The report highlights that gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future attention needed on overseas economic data and geopolitical situations [3][4][49]. - On July 11, the COMEX gold price was 3,370.30 USD/ounce, showing a 1.03% increase from the previous week [49]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that rare earth prices are currently at a cyclical low, with domestic policies promoting supply optimization. The demand from humanoid robots and new energy sectors provides new momentum for the industry [4][63]. - On July 11, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium was 456,000 CNY/ton, up 2.24% from the previous week [63].

重要内容提示： 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"洛阳钼业" 或"公司"）本次将注销回购专用证券账户中的104,930,443股股 份，占注销前公司总股本21,499,240,619股的比例为0.49%。本次 注 销 完 成 后 ， 公 司 的 总 股 本 将 由 21,499,240,619 股 变 更 为 21,394,310,176股。 回购股份注销日：2025年7月16日。 股票代码：603993 股票简称：洛阳钼业 编号：2025—041 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 关于实施回购股份注销暨股份变动的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 公司于2022年5月24日召开第六届董事会第四次会议，审议通过 《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购A股股份（第三期）的议案》，同意 公司使用不高于人民币5亿元的自有资金，以不高于人民币7.25元/ 股的价格回购A股股份。截止2022年6月8日，公司已完成此次股份回 购，公司通过集中竞价交易方式回购股份104,930,443股，成交总金 额为499,934,733元（不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has reiterated a "Buy" rating for Luoyang Molybdenum Co., with a target price of HKD 8.5 for its H-shares, following the company's positive earnings forecast for the first half of the year, indicating significant year-on-year profit growth [1][2] Group 1: Production Costs and Profit Forecast - Management expects production costs to remain stable quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 but decrease year-on-year, with TFM copper mine costs projected between USD 5,500 and 6,000 per ton, and KFM copper mine costs between USD 3,000 and 3,500 per ton [1] - The company anticipates net profit for the first half of the year to reach between RMB 8.2 billion and 9.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 51% to 68%, aligning with Bank of America's predictions and exceeding market consensus [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Profit Growth - Profit growth is primarily driven by rising copper and cobalt prices, with Q2 2025 copper prices expected at USD 9,538 per ton, a 2% year-on-year decline but a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase; cobalt hydroxide prices increased by 61% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 188,000 per ton [2] - Increased production and sales volumes contributed to profit growth, with copper metal output for the first half of the year at 354,000 tons, a 13% year-on-year increase, and cobalt metal output at 61,000 tons, also a 13% year-on-year increase [2] - Q2 copper production is projected at 183,000 tons, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase and a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase, with annualized production exceeding 700,000 tons, surpassing the company's guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 tons for the year [2]

1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the financial and commodity markets on July 15, 2025, covering macro - strategies, commodities, and shipping. It provides news, analysis, and investment advice for each sector. 2. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 3. Core Views - China's economic data shows positive trends, with June exports increasing by 5.8% and imports by 1.1%. The overall economic situation has improved, and comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect [21][20] - Trump's tariff threat against Russia is less effective, and the US dollar index continues to rebound [14][15] - The short - term bond market is weak, but there is long - term optimism, suggesting to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] - The steel price remains volatile, supported by "anti - involution" policies, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [43] - The price of palm oil may correct, suggesting to buy long positions on dips or hedge with short positions on other oils [36] 4. Summary by Category 4.1 Financial News and Reviews - **Macro - strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Hasset is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Trump is open to EU trade talks and threatens Russia with 100% tariffs. The dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [13][14][15] - **Macro - strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump threatens Russia with high tariffs, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Market volatility may increase, and the index valuation center may move up [16][17][18] - **Macro - strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect, and China's June exports and imports are showing positive growth, which is expected to boost market sentiment [20][21] - **Macro - strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Social financing data is strong, and the bond market is weak in the short term but optimistic in the long term. It is recommended to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] 4.2 Commodity News and Reviews - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: High summer temperatures increase coal consumption, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [29] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Iron ore prices are stable, with mild fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: US soybean growth conditions are better than expected, and domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising. The market is concerned about US tariff policies and NOPA's monthly report [31][32] - **Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Kernel Oil)**: Indian palm oil imports have increased significantly, and domestic palm oil inventory is rising. There is a risk of correction in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions on dips [34][35][36] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: India has sold more than half of its MSP - purchased cotton. China's textile exports are mixed, and the downstream industry is in a downturn, which may limit the upward momentum of cotton prices [37][39][40] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are volatile, and "anti - involution" policies support prices in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [43] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Coking coal prices are rising, mainly driven by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch prices are slightly down, and demand is loosening. The uncertainty of CS - C in the future is high [47] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Corn imports are down year - to - date, and spot prices are falling. It is recommended to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [48][49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year. The US tariff policy and inflation data will affect copper prices, which are expected to be volatile in the short term [52][55] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The lead market is in a state of both supply and demand increase, and prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the investigation in Gansu [56][57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Yichun's policy has increased supply uncertainty, and lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc fundamentals are weakening, but the short - term macro sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and protect previous short positions [63][64] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term and decline in the medium - term [66][67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Trump pressures Russia to cease fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: The domestic market is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70][72] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly [73] - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: PX prices have rebounded, and the medium - long - term de - stocking pattern continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [74][75] - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: PTA prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [78][79] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda market is rising, but it may be difficult to continue rising [80][81] - **Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp)**: Pulp prices are driven up by the market, but the upward space is limited [82][83] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: PVC prices are rebounding, but the upward space is limited [84] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: Urea exports are accelerating, and the market is expected to fluctuate [86][87] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to buy on dips to expand processing fees [89] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The pure benzene market is expected to improve in July - August, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for a safer valuation [91] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: China's imports and exports are growing, and the SCFIS (European Line) index is rising. The futures valuation center of the European line may move up [93][94]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Views - The report highlights a weakening in industrial metal commodities due to reduced interest rate expectations and the U.S. imposing a 50% tax on copper, which raises concerns about demand in non-U.S. regions [2] - The strategic value of rare earths is emphasized, with the government reinforcing control over resources and smelting, while overseas efforts to build rare earth supply chains are accelerating [2][8] - Precious metals are expected to perform well, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high driven by increased risk aversion and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices stabilized while silver prices hit a new high, driven by heightened risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [6] - The report suggests focusing on silver stocks due to their potential for significant price increases, given the current low silver-to-gold ratio [6] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals experienced volatility, with LME copper down 1.9% and SHFE copper down 1.6%, primarily due to weakened interest rate expectations and the U.S. tax on copper [7] - Copper and aluminum inventories increased, with copper up 8.65% week-on-week and down 21.7% year-on-year, while aluminum increased by 3.06% week-on-week and decreased by 51.8% year-on-year [7] Strategic and Energy Metals - The report indicates a revaluation of strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten, with the government focusing on enhancing control over these resources [8] - The price of rare earths is expected to rise, with significant improvements in the performance of companies in this sector [8] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to an extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while nickel prices are expected to stabilize [8]

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific Haikou expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [1] - The main reason for the profit increase is the merger with Haitong Securities, which has led to significant growth in wealth management and trading revenues [1] - Shenyuan Hongyuan anticipates a net profit increase of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [6][7] Group 2 - Southern Airlines expects a net loss of 1.338 billion to 1.756 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in passenger structure and international uncertainties [2] - China Eastern Airlines projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by intense domestic market competition [3] - Air China anticipates a net loss of 1.7 billion to 2.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, affected by market supply imbalances and international uncertainties [4] Group 3 - HNA Group expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 45 million to 65 million yuan, attributed to improved market conditions and operational adjustments [5] - CICC forecasts a net profit increase of 55%-78% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 3.453 billion to 3.966 billion yuan [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 55%-60% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.43 billion to 4.573 billion yuan [9] Group 4 - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 84.3%-120.5% [10] - Poly Developments anticipates a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.735 billion yuan [11] - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit increase of 51%-68% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan [13] Group 5 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, but with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [14] - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by ongoing industry challenges [15] - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from the previous year's loss [16] Group 6 - Jianghuai Automobile expects a net loss of approximately 680 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased competition in the international market [21] - Yonghui Supermarket anticipates a net loss of 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, attributed to ongoing transformation challenges [22] - ST Huatuo expects a net profit increase of 107.2%-159% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan [23] Group 7 - New Hope anticipates a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [25] - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing expects a net profit increase of 32%-67% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan [27] - Pengding Holdings expects a net profit increase of 52.79%-60.62% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.198 billion to 1.26 billion yuan [29] Group 8 - Hengtong Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of approximately 251 million yuan [30] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 50%-56% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.4 billion to 1.45 billion yuan [31] - Founder Securities expects a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.299 billion to 2.43 billion yuan [33]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's significant profit growth in the first half of 2025 is attributed to rising prices of key products such as copper and cobalt, alongside increased production and sales volumes [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [2] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 8.3 billion to 9.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 47.55% to 63.55% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Production and Sales - The production of cobalt metal reached 61,100 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.05% [2] - Copper metal production was 353,600 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of about 12.68% [2] - The completion rate for the 2025 production guidance is 56% [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company has successfully acquired 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, which has a resource reserve of 1.376 billion tons and an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold [5] - The project is expected to commence production in 2028, with an anticipated annual output of 11.5 tons of gold [5] - The company aims to enhance its organizational structure and management to achieve its annual operational goals and foster significant growth [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The Congolese government has extended a ban on cobalt raw material exports, but the company believes this will not have a significant impact on its operations [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (603993) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices, alongside increased production and sales of copper products [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders between 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.83 billion to 36.83 billion yuan, or a growth of 51.37% to 67.98% [2]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 8.3 billion to 9.2 billion yuan, an increase of 26.75 billion to 35.75 billion yuan, translating to a growth of 47.55% to 63.55% year-on-year [2]. Production and Sales - For the first half of 2025, copper production is expected to reach 353,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12.68%, while cobalt production is projected at 61,100 tons, up about 13.05% [2][3]. - The completion rate for copper production based on the mid-point of the 2025 production guidance is 56% [3]. Market Trends - Copper prices have shown an upward trend in the first half of the year, with global exchanges reporting price increases between 5% to 20% [2]. - Cobalt prices have also surged, with a reported increase of approximately 50% from January 2 to June 30 [2]. Strategic Acquisitions - The company completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold for 581 million Canadian dollars, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, which adds significant gold resources to its portfolio [4]. - The Cangrejos Project has an estimated resource of 1.376 billion tons with an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold, and is expected to have a service life of 26 years [4]. Future Outlook - The Cangrejos Project is planned to commence production in 2028, with an expected annual gold output of 11.5 tons [4]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in South America to enhance operational synergies and utilize advanced mining technologies for the new gold project [4].