行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 19 日 行业反内卷预期强化，关注底部金 属价格上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20250714-20250719 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.69%，深证成指上涨 2.04%，沪深 300 上 涨 1.09%，有色金属（申万）指数上 ...

洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司的主营业务是基本金属、稀有金属的采、选、冶等矿山采掘及加工业务 和矿产贸易业务。公司的主要产品是矿山采掘及加工、钼、钨、铜（不含NPM）、钴、铌、磷、铜金 （NPM）、矿产贸易、矿物金属贸易、精炼金属贸易。 7月18日，洛阳钼业今日收盘8.21元，上涨1.48%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和的 比值）达到11.40倍，总市值1756.47亿元。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的小金属行业市盈率平均63.07倍，行业中值53.34倍，洛阳钼业排名 第5位。 截至2025年一季报，共有70家机构持仓洛阳钼业，其中基金70家，合计持股数13972.92万股，持股市值 11.77亿元。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 最新一期业绩显示，2025年一季报，公司实现营业收入460.06亿元，同比-0.25%；净利润39.46亿元，同 比90.47%，销售毛利率22.33%。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)1洛阳钼业11.4012.982.381756.47亿行业平均 63.0765.984.25214.77亿行业中值53.3455.873.62127. ...

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [6] - In the first half of 2025, copper production is projected to be 353,600 tons, up 12.68% year-on-year, and cobalt production is expected to be 61,100 tons, up 13.05% year-on-year [7] - The company completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold in June 2025, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador, which has a resource reserve of 1.376 billion tons and a gold content of 638 tons [8] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.217 billion, 18.093 billion, and 18.759 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.67, 9.57, and 9.23 [9] Financial Summary - The company anticipates a revenue of 213.029 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, and projected revenues of 223.839 billion, 232.065 billion, and 240.274 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 16.5% in 2024, increasing to 17.0% by 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [11] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.1% in 2024, peaking at 20.2% in 2025, and then declining to 18.3% by 2027 [11]

在"买买买"模式加持下，再叠加"涨涨涨"的市场节奏，紫金矿业（601899.SH）和洛阳钼业 （603993.SH）均业绩预喜，上半年分别实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约232亿元以及82亿元到91 亿元，同比增幅均超过50%。 对于头部矿企的业绩表现，行业专家向《华夏时报》记者分析指出，大型铜与黄金矿业巨头业绩高增只 是表面，背后是资源掌控带来的风险溢价。紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等龙头一季度净利增幅逾50%，本质 是"资源溢价兑现+产能结构优化"的结果。 对于头部矿企的业绩表现，国信期货首席分析师顾冯达向《华夏时报》记者分析指出，大型铜与黄金矿 业巨头业绩高增只是表面，背后是资源掌控带来的风险溢价。紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等龙头上半年净利增 幅逾50%，本质是"资源溢价兑现+产能结构优化"的结果。 在亮眼业绩公布之后，两家上市公司在A股的股价并未出现较大的波动，整体处于横盘状态。专家人士 分析认为，矿业股的股价往往提前反映了商品的价格预期，投资者对周期性高点可能存有担忧。而对于 金、铜的未来走势，分析人士指出，黄金和铜等战略性资源风险溢价处于大周期上行阶段。 相比业绩表现，买矿增储动作更能撩动投资者的心弦。在6月底两家 ...

| 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 兵装重组概念 | 4.22 | 房屋检测 | -0.18 | | 同花顺果指数 | 3.37 | 黄金概念 | -0.13 | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 3.34 | 举牌 | -0.12 | | PCB概念 | 3.07 | 水泥概念 | -0.06 | | AI手机 | 3.01 | 固废处理 | -0.03 | | AI PC | 3.01 | 新型城镇化 | -0.03 | | 重组蛋白 | 2.92 | ST板块 | -0.01 | | 海南自贸区 | 2.76 | 猪肉 | 0.00 | | 创新药 | 2.68 | 大豆 | 0.01 | | CRO概念 | 2.61 | 装配式建筑 | 0.05 | 资金面上看，今日黄金概念板块获主力资金净流出12.71亿元，其中，50股获主力资金净流出，5股主力 资金净流出超亿元，净流出资金居首的是赤峰黄金，今日主力资金净流出2.13亿元，净流出资金居前的 还有紫金矿业、金一文化、洛阳钼业等，主力资金分别净流出1.70亿元、1.29 ...

金融界7月17日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证内地资源主题指数 (内地资源，000944)上涨0.29%，报 3511.13点，成交额354.35亿元。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。遇临时调整时，当中证800指数调整样本时，指数样本随之进行相 应调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照 计算与维护细则处理。 跟踪内地资源的公募基金包括：民生加银中证内地资源C、民生加银中证内地资源A。 从指数持仓来看，中证内地资源主题指数十大权重分别为：紫金矿业（15.56%）、中国神华 （6.62%）、中国石油（5.46%）、中国石化（4.52%）、北方稀土（4.1%）、陕西煤业（3.98%）、中 国海油（3.32%）、洛阳钼业（3.07%）、中国铝业（3.06%）、山东黄金（2.99%）。 从中证内地资源主题指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比78.58%、深圳证券交易所占比 21.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][15]. Core Insights - The report anticipates significant earnings growth for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2025, with some companies expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth due to rising metal prices and increased production [4][5]. - The long-term trend for gold prices is expected to rise, driven by changes in monetary credit structures and low gold reserves in China, suggesting a sustained upward movement in gold prices [5]. - The copper market is projected to experience a long-term bullish cycle due to limited new supply and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [5]. - The steel industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as the government addresses low-price competition among enterprises [5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Key companies such as Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining are highlighted for their strong earnings growth potential in 2025H1, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 50% for several firms [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the historical low valuation of the gold sector, suggesting potential for recovery and recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to limited new supply and increasing demand, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended for investment [5]. - The aluminum sector is projected to recover significantly in 2025, with companies like Yun Aluminum and China Hongqiao highlighted for their cost improvements and stable dividends [5]. Steel Industry - The report notes that the steel industry is undergoing a transformation with government measures to optimize supply and demand, recommending companies like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel for their stable earnings [5][10]. Growth Cycle Investment - The report suggests that after interest rate cuts, the valuation center for stable supply-demand sectors like new energy manufacturing is expected to rise, recommending companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

从指数持仓来看，中证香港300上游指数十大权重分别为：中国海洋石油（28.76%）、中国石油股份 （13.17%）、紫金矿业（10.73%）、中国神华（9.47%）、中国石油化工股份（9.06%）、中国宏桥 （4.45%）、中煤能源（3.29%）、招金矿业（3.19%）、洛阳钼业（2.74%）、兖矿能源（2.33%）。 从中证香港300上游指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港300上游指数持仓样本的行业来看，石油与天然气占比51.38%、贵金属占比15.91%、煤炭占 比15.56%、工业金属占比14.64%、油气开采与油田服务占比1.07%、稀有金属占比0.84%、其他有色金 属及合金占比0.59%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。当样本退市时，将其从指数样本中剔除。样本公司发生收 购、合并、分拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。 金融界7月17日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证香港300上游指数 (H300上游，H30100)报2639.21点。 本文源自：金融界 数据 ...

金融界7月16日消息，上证指数低开震荡，中证香港300原材料指数 (H300材料，L11221)报2311.34点。 数据统计显示，中证香港300原材料指数近一个月上涨6.83%，近三个月上涨23.83%，年至今上涨 41.40%。 据了解，中证香港300行业指数系列在中证香港300指数样本中，按中证行业分类标准进行分类，以进入 各一、二、三级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数，形成中证香港300行业指数系列，以反映香港市场 不同行业的整体表现。该指数以2004年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基点。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 从中证香港300原材料指数持仓的市场板块来看，香港证券交易所占比100.00%。 从中证香港300原材料指数持仓样本的行业来看，有色金属占比78.94%、非金属材料占比15.04%、化工 占比4.62%、造纸与包装占比1.41%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。遇临时调整时，当中证香港300指 ...