Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 19 年 月 日 有色金属 关税扰动引发金银价格波动，长期牛市格局不改 贵金属：关税扰动引发金银价格波动，长期牛市格局不改。美国两党因对《平价医疗法案》 中的保费税收抵免条款存在分歧，导致美国国会参议院 9 月 30 日之前未能在政府资金耗尽 前通过新的临时拨款法案，美国政府时隔 7 年再次停摆。此事件使得美国信誉受到了新的损 害。10 月 11 日，特朗普宣布将于 11 月 1 日对中国加征 100%关税，引发市场对中美关税 战升级的担忧，利好黄金避险需求。由意外事件所引发的黄金价格快速上涨往往会伴随事件 的反转引发回调风险，但中长期在通胀压力上行与全球流动性宽松背景下，贵金属牛市格局 不改，建议重视贵金属战略配置机遇。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、万国黄金集团、中 金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：矿端干扰支撑铜价，宏观不确定性或造成短期扰动。①宏观：中美贸 易战短期或引发铜价震荡，宏观不确定性提升；②库存端：周内全球铜库存环比增加 3.02 万 吨，其中中国库存增加 2.57 万吨，LM ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt the market, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which have reached new highs [1][2]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and optimistic macroeconomic forecasts, despite short-term volatility caused by tariffs [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [3]. - Precious metals are benefiting from strong central bank purchases and high expectations for interest rate cuts, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Tariff-induced short-term volatility is affecting copper prices, but supply disruptions are expected to support prices [2]. - Aluminum demand remains resilient, with a decrease in social inventory indicating a potential price stabilization [2][19]. - The report highlights key companies in the industrial metals sector, including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are rising due to new export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium demand remains strong due to the growth of the electric vehicle market [3]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to strong demand from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Gold [3].

"2025年以来，美元信用的加速衰退成为此次金属价格上涨的核心驱动因素，推动了有色金属价格的强 势反弹。"分析师如是说道。 行情升温，市场加温 2025年以来，一场席卷全球的大宗商品"热浪"正在迅速升温。金价突破历史高点、伦铜叩响万美元大 关、白银补涨势能释放，有色金属在资本市场的存在感急剧抬升。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 在美联储降息周期与外部不确定性双重因素的作用下，2025年黄金及有色金属板块的表现引人瞩目。 10月15日，纽约商品交易所2025年12月黄金期货价格突破每盎司4200美元，创下历史新高，年内涨幅已 超过50%。黄金的屡创新高不仅推动了相关企业盈利显著提升，也进一步确认了市场对其避险属性的强 烈需求。 然而，其他有色金属板块表现却有所分化。工业金属受制于关税政策及全球经济预期，价格波动加剧， 但整体盈利保持稳定。能源金属则虽未完全摆脱下行通道，但价格降幅已明显收窄，企业压力缓解，盈 利质量有所改善，显示出走出底部的潜力。 在国庆黄金周后，二级市场迎来有色金属板块的强势上涨，黄金、铜、稀土等核心品种表现突出，相关 企业股价普遍走强。 业内 ...

Core Insights - The tungsten concentrate industry is crucial for strategic sectors like aerospace and defense, with a focus on high-density, high-melting-point, and high-hardness properties [1][5][11] - China, as the largest tungsten producer, faces rapid resource consumption and has implemented policies for total control and export regulation to transition from resource output to high value-added production [1][5][6] - The industry is characterized by a concentration of resources, with significant production capacity in provinces like Jiangxi and Henan, and a market dominated by state-owned enterprises [1][12][16] Industry Overview - Tungsten concentrate is extracted from tungsten ore through various processes, requiring a minimum tungsten trioxide (WO₃) content of 65% [2][3] - The global tungsten resource distribution is highly concentrated, with China holding 52% of the total reserves, while the domestic reserve-to-production ratio is only 36 years [10][11] Policy Analysis - China has established a policy framework focusing on resource protection and sustainable utilization, including total mining volume management and export controls [5][6][14] - Recent policies have refined the management of mining quotas and introduced stricter regulations on exports of tungsten-related products [6][14] Industry Chain - The tungsten concentrate industry chain includes exploration, mining, and processing, with a high concentration of mining enterprises and increasing prices due to supply constraints [8][12] - The downstream applications are diverse, with significant growth in demand for tungsten wire in the photovoltaic sector, while traditional sectors face cost pressures [8][12] Current Industry Status - The tungsten industry in China is experiencing a transformation, with a focus on high-end applications and a shift towards sustainable practices [13][15] - In 2024, the total tungsten concentrate production is projected to be 12.7 million tons, reflecting the impact of total control policies [14][15] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a "resource core, state-owned leadership, and collaborative ecosystem" model, with major players like Jiangxi Tungsten Industry Group and Xiamen Tungsten leading the market [16][17] - The market concentration is high, with the top five companies controlling 61% of the production capacity [16] Future Trends - The tungsten concentrate industry is expected to evolve towards resource consolidation, technological advancement, and global expansion [17][19] - Key trends include a shift from scale advantages to ecological dominance, with a focus on high-end applications and green transformation [17][18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a positive outlook for the industry from 2025 to 2031, with specific data on production volumes and growth rates [1]. Industry Summary - In April 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.76 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of these metals totaled 26.6 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 2.3% [1]. - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry research institution in China [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - Silver prices continue to reach new highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4,300 [2]. - As of October 16, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 3.35% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.83 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The precious metals sector has risen by 6.04%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 3.58% during the same period [18]. Market Review - As of October 16, 2025, the COMEX gold price closed at $4,344.30 per ounce, up $828.2 since early September, while the COMEX silver price reached $53.43 per ounce, an increase of $12.68 [6][35]. - The LME copper price stood at $10,620 per ton, with other industrial metals like aluminum at $2,796 per ton and nickel at $15,230 per ton [25][60]. - The rare earth price index was recorded at 204.65, down 22.28 from early September, indicating a need for caution regarding external risk sentiment [42][61]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies to safeguard the global supply chain and address illegal acquisition issues [50]. - The World Gold Council noted that overall gold holdings remain low, suggesting potential for future price increases despite current market concerns [50]. Company Announcements - Shenghe Resources expects a net profit increase of 697% to 783% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions for rare earth products [51][52]. - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit increase of 273% to 287% for the same period, reflecting strong market demand and effective management strategies [53][54]. - Shandong Gold forecasts a net profit increase of 84% to 99% for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to rising gold prices [57][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Xinyi Silver (000426), and Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988) in the precious metals sector [60][63]. - For industrial metals, companies like Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) are recommended [60][63]. - In the rare earth sector, attention is drawn to Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [62][63].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., experienced a 4.20% decline in stock price on October 17, with a trading volume of 4.489 billion yuan and a total market capitalization of 321.77 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is the world's second-largest cobalt producer, primarily selling cobalt products such as cobalt hydroxide in international markets [2] - The company operates in the non-ferrous metal mining industry, focusing on the extraction, smelting, and deep processing of metals including copper, molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus, and is among the top five molybdenum producers globally [2] - The company has a comprehensive integrated industrial chain and is also the largest tungsten producer and a leading copper producer [2] Recent Developments - In the first half of 2025, the company signed a share transfer agreement to acquire 100% of Woyuan Holdings, indirectly increasing its stake in Huayue Nickel Cobalt to 30% [2] - The company has been expanding its precious metals business, with revenue and profit contributions from gold and silver products increasing year by year [2] Production and Financial Performance - The company owns 80% of the NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, with gold equity production of 16,000 ounces in 2022 and a guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 ounces for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [3] - The company successfully completed the acquisition of Ecuador's Odin Mining (KGHM Gold Mine) in the first half of 2025, with plans to commence production before 2029 [3] Financial Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.671 billion yuan [8] - The company's main business revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), and molybdenum (3.12%) [7] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the company had 237,500 shareholders, a decrease of 15.95% from the previous period [8] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with notable increases in holdings [9]

Group 1 - Copper stocks continue to decline, with notable drops in companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (-4.21% to HKD 14.8), Jiangxi Copper (-3.95% to HKD 31.58), Minmetals Resources (-2.68% to HKD 6.53), and China Nonferrous Mining (-2.21% to HKD 13.69) [1][1][1] Group 2 - The copper market is experiencing intense fluctuations, influenced by supply-side disruptions such as the shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg mine, earthquakes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and incidents at the Aifenhao mine [1][1][1] - Uncertainties in international trade and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are contributing to potential disturbances in copper prices [1][1][1] Group 3 - According to CITIC Futures, the market is currently facing pressure due to the U.S. government shutdown causing delays in economic data releases, leading to increased risk aversion among investors [1][1][1] - Goldman Sachs indicates that the short-term upward price potential for copper is limited to USD 11,000 per ton, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook, citing an oversupply in the market as a key factor [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The China Rare Metals Theme Index has decreased by 0.44% as of October 17, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The Rare Metals ETF has reached a record high in both scale and shares, with a total scale of 37.51 billion and 45.09 billion shares [3] - Recent price increases in tungsten and cobalt indicate potential upward price adjustments in the medium to long term due to supply constraints and market dynamics [4] Group 1: Market Performance - The Rare Metals ETF experienced a turnover of 2.68% and a transaction volume of 101 million yuan [3] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past week, with a peak single-day net inflow of 403 million yuan, totaling 1.271 billion yuan [3] - The index's top ten weighted stocks account for 59.91% of the total, with notable companies including Northern Rare Earth and Ganfeng Lithium [3] Group 2: Price Trends and Supply Dynamics - Black tungsten concentrate prices have risen by 13.60% to 284,000 yuan per ton, while ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.16% to 415,000 yuan per ton [4] - The supply side for tungsten is constrained due to reduced mining quotas and lower ore grades, providing strong support for prices [4] - The Democratic Republic of Congo's dominance in global cobalt supply suggests that companies with substantial resource reserves and production capacity will have a competitive advantage [4]