铜价：继续看好后续铜价上行。(1)宏观：美联储主席鲍威尔8月22日讲话偏鸽，市场预计9月降息概率 较大。(2)供需：因此前美国铜关税导致的库存搬运已进入尾声，LME和COMEX累库有望逐步结束；国 内淡季即将结束，看好9月以后国内需求好转。矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求Q4回 升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，铜价后续有望上行。 点评： 公司上半年业绩超预期主要系各板块产量超计划完成。公司各产品产量全部达成上半年度目标，实现时 间过半任务超半。其中，产铜35.36万吨，同比增长约12.68%，计划完成率达56%；产钴6.11万吨，同比 增长约13.05%。钼、钨、铌、磷肥等产品产量均超过年度目标的50%。 2025年上半年，铜、钴、钼铁、仲钨酸铵、磷酸一铵价格均上涨。2025年上半年，伦敦金属交易所现货 铜均价为9,431美元/吨，同比上涨3.75%；Fastmarkets标准级钴金属低幅价格升至平均13.16美元/磅，同 比上涨7.69%，钼铁均价约22.88万元/吨，同比小幅上升1.37%；仲钨酸铵(APT)均价22.23万元/吨，同比 上涨12.39%；铌铁均价45.87美元/公斤，同比小幅下降0. ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs research indicates investor optimism regarding China's GDP growth target for 2025, with short-term export expectations raised and accelerated fiscal measures, leading to increased attention on cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has weakened the US dollar, combined with stable performance in the domestic commodity market, benefiting the A-share non-ferrous sector [1] - China and Thailand's non-ferrous sector highlights tight cobalt raw material supply, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota policy potentially leading to a supply vacuum in Q4, reinforcing expectations for rising cobalt prices and boosting related non-ferrous products [1] Group 2 - Minmetals Securities notes that the Australian mining sector's Q2 2025 financial report shows that cost reduction in the non-ferrous metal industry has reached a bottleneck, necessitating attention to corporate decision-making changes affecting Australian lithium supply and costs, as well as the impact of changes in demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage on lithium prices and production decisions [2] - GF Securities focuses on changes in the molybdenum industry landscape, suggesting that the collaboration between Jinchuan Group and Zijin Mining to develop the world-class Shapingou molybdenum project will restructure the global molybdenum resource distribution system, with Zijin Mining holding 60% of the adjusted equity structure, potentially having a profound impact on the supply side of the molybdenum industry chain [2] Group 3 - Related products include various ETFs such as Non-ferrous ETF Fund (159880), Photovoltaic ETF Fund (159863), and Semiconductor ETF (159813), among others [3] - Related stocks include Zijin Mining (601899), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and Tianqi Lithium (002466), among others [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.16%, ranking second among all primary industries [14]. - The optimism in the industrial metals market is driven by expectations of a demand peak in China and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][27]. - Gold is expected to have significant upward potential due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve and declining real interest rates [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 6.32 percentage points [14]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with small metals up 12.02%, new materials up 5.67%, energy metals up 2.89%, precious metals up 7.22%, and industrial metals up 6.95% [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,902/ton, up 1.08% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at ¥79,410/ton, up 0.91% [34]. Supply is tightening due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and a reduction in Codelco's production target [34]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,619/ton, down 0.11%, while SHFE aluminum closed at ¥20,740/ton, up 0.53% [37]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased to 44.035 million tons [39]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,814/ton, up 0.30%, while SHFE zinc closed at ¥22,140/ton, down 0.61% [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,950/ton, up 3.26%, and SHFE tin closed at ¥278,650/ton, up 4.78% [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516.10/oz, up 2.89%, and SHFE gold closed at ¥785.12/g, up 1.52% [50]. The report highlights the significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for further declines in real interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [4][51]. The demand for gold in China is strong, with net imports through Hong Kong expected to reach 43.923 tons by July 2025, reflecting a 126.81% increase [51].

证券时报·数据宝统计显示，洛阳钼业所属的有色金属行业，目前整体涨幅为1.36%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有90只，涨幅居前的有西部黄金、金钼股份、海星股份等，涨幅分别为9.99%、9.93%、9.34%。 股价下跌的有49只，跌幅居前的有利源股份、中洲特材、常铝股份等，跌幅分别为3.73%、3.54%、 2.95%。 两融数据显示，该股最新（8月29日）两融余额为20.50亿元，其中，融资余额为20.29亿元，近10日增加 1.18亿元，环比增长6.18%。 机构评级来看，近10日共有12家机构对该股进行评级，预计目标价最高的是华泰证券，8月25日华泰证 券发布的研报给予公司目标价为14.63元。 公司发布的半年报数据显示，上半年公司共实现营业收入947.73亿元，同比下降7.83%，实现净利润 86.71亿元，同比增长60.07%，基本每股收益为0.4100元，加权平均净资产收益率11.70%。（数据宝） 洛阳钼业股价再创历史新高，该股近期呈不断突破新高之势，近一个月累计有13个交易日股价刷新历史 纪录。截至09:42，该股目前上涨1.70%，股价报12.57元，成交6536.62万股，成交金额8.14亿元 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 31 年 月 日 有色金属 降息预期升温，白银率先突破 贵金属：降息预期升温，白银率先突破。本周特朗普罢免库克一案持续发酵，美联储独立性 受到挑战，利空美元。周五晚 8:30 公布的美国核心 PCE 指数年率录得 2.9%，符合预期，但 已连续 3 个月回升，数据公布后，交易员继续押注美联储降息，2Y 国债收益率和美元双双 走弱，金银价格快速走强。截至周五收盘，伦敦银收于 39.69 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银收于 40.75 美元/盎司，伦敦和 COMEX 白银均创年内新高，技术面形成强趋势突破；伦敦金收至 3448.1 美元/盎司，接近年内 3500 美元/盎司高位。往后看，不排除美国经济呈现通胀上升， 就业会落的"类滞胀"局面，我们强烈看好后市金银价格。短期紧盯 9 月 5 日非农就业数 据、9 月 11 日 CPI 数据、9 月 17 日 FOMC 会议决议。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、万 国黄金集团、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：宏观转松与金九银十共振，看好后市铜价。①宏观方面：周内 ...

Group 1: Metal Sector - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit forecast for 2025 is 168.65 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 15.32[12] - The company expects to increase copper production to 70,000 tons in 2025, a 56% year-on-year growth[14] - The strategic partnership with CATL aims to enhance lithium and nickel resource acquisition, contributing over 70% to gross profit[17] Group 2: Cement Sector - Huaxin Cement's domestic sales are projected to decline from 5,004,000 tons in 2023 to 4,078,000 tons in 2025, while overseas sales are expected to grow to 2,017,000 tons[30] - The company aims for a net profit of 19.58 billion CNY from overseas operations by 2026, reflecting a 25% increase from 2025[30] Group 3: Logistics Sector - Eastern Airlines Logistics' revenue from the US market accounts for 20%-30%, with a 5% decline in comprehensive freight rates due to tariff policies[32] - The company is adjusting its route structure to improve performance in the European market, anticipating a recovery in the second half of the year[32] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Wanhua Chemical's net profit is expected to recover as MDI prices stabilize, with a projected increase in demand from the furniture industry[50] - The company is positioned to benefit from a tightening supply of TDI, with prices expected to remain high through 2027[50] Group 5: Power Sector - Changjiang Electric Power's EPS forecast for 2025 is 1.38 CNY, with a PE ratio of 20.26, supported by a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70%[74] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 4-8 billion CNY, reflecting confidence in its future growth[74]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 94.773 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.671 billion yuan [1] - The company achieved significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with production completion rates exceeding 50% for all major products [2] - Financial pressure from expenses decreased, with a reduction in financial expense ratio due to optimized debt structure [3] - The company is expected to see growth driven by copper and cobalt businesses, with gold resources potentially providing new growth points [4] Revenue and Profit - Revenue for H1 2025 was 94.773 billion yuan, down 7.83% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.671 billion yuan, up 60.07% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 8.724 billion yuan, an increase of 55.08% year-on-year [1] Production and Pricing - Major product prices increased, with copper, cobalt, and other products seeing price rises of 3.75%, 7.69%, and 1.37% respectively [2] - Production volumes for copper and cobalt increased by 12.68% and 13.05% respectively, while molybdenum and tungsten saw slight declines [2] - The gross profit margin increased by 2.77 percentage points to 21.15%, and the net profit margin increased by 4.23 percentage points to 10.39% [2] Cost Management and Projects - The company successfully reduced financial expenses by decreasing long-term borrowings [3] - Ongoing projects include the TFM and KFM mining areas, with significant progress in geological modeling and project preparations [3] - The company is advancing its hydroelectric and renewable energy projects to support future capacity increases [3] Future Outlook - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 16.028 billion, 18.715 billion, and 20.212 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.75, 0.87, and 0.94 yuan per share [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its growth potential and cost management strategies [4]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the prices of non-ferrous metal commodities rose overall, significantly contributing to industry profitability [1] - Over 60% of listed companies in the non-ferrous sector reported year-on-year growth in performance, with 90% achieving net profit [1] - Companies with profits exceeding 1 billion yuan reached 21 [1] Group 2: Key Company Performances - Zijin Mining (601899) reported revenue of 167.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, and a net profit of 23.29 billion yuan, up 54.41% [1] - Shandong Gold (600547) achieved a net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in gold prices [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) recorded a net profit of 8.67 billion yuan, a historical high, with mining revenue reaching 39.40 billion yuan [2] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) saw a net profit of 931 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1951.52% due to strong domestic demand [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fluctuated between 400,000 to 450,000 yuan per ton in Q1 2025, with a 12.5% increase, followed by a drop due to international trade tensions [3] - The demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and robotics is expected to drive the rare earth market upward in the second half of the year [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry remains optimistic about gold and copper price trends, with Zijin Mining noting potential market fluctuations due to U.S. copper import tariffs and low global non-U.S. exchange inventories [4] - Continued geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar are expected to bolster demand for gold, with central bank purchases remaining high [4] - Shandong Gold anticipates sustained investment demand for gold due to ongoing global geopolitical instability [4]

今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 兵装重组概念 | 3.57 | 智谱AI | -2.60 | | 钠离子电池 | 2.41 | WiFi 6 | -2.59 | | 石墨电极 | 2.32 | 华为欧拉 | -2.41 | | 同花顺出海50 | 2.14 | 星闪概念 | -2.24 | | 固态电池 | 2.14 | 数字水印 | -2.15 | | 减肥药 | 1.80 | 汽车芯片 | -2.07 | | PVDF概念 | 1.74 | F5G概念 | -2.03 | | 金属钴 | 1.70 | 电子纸 | -2.00 | | 盐湖提锂 | 1.69 | 国资云 | -1.97 | | 金属镍 | 1.67 | 云办公 | -1.96 | 截至8月29日收盘，盐湖提锂概念上涨1.69%，位居概念板块涨幅第9，板块内，26股上涨，沃顿科技涨 停，三达膜、蓝晓科技、亿纬锂能等涨幅居前，分别上涨7.08%、7.01%、6.84%。跌幅居前的有倍杰 特、中铝国际、中电环保等，分别下跌6.11 ...

Group 1 - The metal cobalt sector increased by 1.70%, ranking 8th among concept sectors, with 23 stocks rising, including Shengtun Mining which hit the daily limit, and other notable gainers like Bluestar Technology, Dingsheng Technology, and Zhongtung High-tech, which rose by 7.01%, 6.48%, and 5.40% respectively [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 438 million yuan from main funds, with 16 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow. Huayou Cobalt led with a net inflow of 441 million yuan, followed by Shengtun Mining, Zhongtung High-tech, and Ganfeng Lithium with net inflows of 374 million yuan, 273 million yuan, and 253 million yuan respectively [2][3] - In terms of fund inflow ratios, Shengtun Mining, China Metallurgical Group, and Zhongtung High-tech had the highest net inflow ratios at 13.51%, 10.89%, and 9.08% respectively [3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the metal cobalt sector included Huayou Cobalt with a 3.18% increase and a turnover rate of 7.00%, Shengtun Mining with a 10.04% increase and a turnover rate of 10.53%, and Zhongtung High-tech with a 5.40% increase and a turnover rate of 11.71% [3][4] - The sector also included stocks with negative performance, such as Dadi Bear, which fell by 3.13%, and China Power Construction and ST Hezhong, which decreased by 1.99% and 1.88% respectively [4][5]