Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Copper prices may rise if demand improves post-holiday, despite current inventory accumulation [40]. - The aluminum sector is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [46]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, with potential upward pressure from U.S. Federal Reserve policies [52]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain tight supply conditions, supporting prices for praseodymium and neodymium [66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel production is declining as companies prepare for the Spring Festival, with total inventory increasing [19][21]. - As of February 6, the total steel inventory was 13.39 million tons, up 4.36% week-on-week, but down 19.42% year-on-year [28]. - The average price index for steel on February 6 was 3,414.24 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - Copper prices have decreased, but new orders are increasing, indicating seasonal demand characteristics [40]. - As of February 6, LME copper prices were $12,800/ton, down 3.96% from January 30 [43]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, but aluminum processing companies are reducing production due to price volatility and regulatory pressures [46]. - As of February 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,000/ton, down 2.09% from January 30 [47]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are influencing gold prices, which are expected to find support from these factors [52]. - As of February 6, COMEX gold prices were $4,988.60/oz, up 1.65% from January 30 [52]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to remain tight, supporting price stability [66]. - As of February 6, the price of praseodymium oxide was 757,500 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from January 30 [66].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised the net profit forecasts for Luoyang Molybdenum for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 3.8%, 34.2%, and 17.5% respectively, reaching 20.5 billion, 33.9 billion, and 31.8 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 20.5 billion yuan, for 2026 at 33.9 billion yuan, and for 2027 at 31.8 billion yuan [1] - The significant increase in the 2026 profit forecast is attributed to the expected contribution from newly acquired assets [1] Group 2: Asset Acquisition - Luoyang Molybdenum announced the acquisition of Brazilian gold assets in December 2025, completing the transaction in January 2026 [1] - The newly acquired assets are expected to contribute 7.1 tons of attributable gold production in 2026, generating approximately 2.4 billion yuan in net profit, which accounts for about 7% of total net profit [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - Citigroup has raised the target price for Luoyang Molybdenum from 20.6 HKD to 28.3 HKD and maintains a "Buy" rating [1]

花旗发表研报，将洛阳钼业2025年、2026年及2027年的净利润预测分别上调3.8%、34.2%、17.5%，至 205亿元、339亿元及318亿元。基于花旗大宗商品团队对2026年黄金基准价格4600美元/盎司的预测，该 行预计新收购资产在2026年将贡献7.1吨的应占黄金产量，为洛钼带来24亿元的净利润，约占总净利润 的7%。报告指出，洛钼于2025年12月宣布收购巴西黄金资产，并于2026年1月完成交易。该行预计该资 产在2026年将贡献7.1吨应占黄金产量，贡献约24亿元净利润。花旗将洛阳钼业目标价从20.6港元上调至 28.3港元，并维持"买入"评级。 ...

来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 2月9日，洛阳钼业涨1.96%，成交额42.36亿元。两融数据显示，当日洛阳钼业获融资买入额3.76亿元， 融资偿还3.61亿元，融资净买入1524.89万元。截至2月9日，洛阳钼业融资融券余额合计47.47亿元。 融资方面，洛阳钼业当日融资买入3.76亿元。当前融资余额47.23亿元，占流通市值的1.21%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，洛阳钼业2月9日融券偿还44.36万股，融券卖出6.14万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 137.66万元；融券余量106.84万股，融券余额2395.35万元，超过近一年80%分位水平，处于高位。 截至9月30日，洛阳钼业股东户数30.42万，较上期增加28.08%；人均流通股0股，较上期增加0.00%。 2025年1月-9月，洛阳钼业实现营业收入1454.85亿元，同比减少5.99%；归母净利润142.80亿元，同比增 长72.61%。 分红方面，洛阳钼业A股上市后累计派现215.62亿元。近三年，累计派现105.76亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，洛阳钼业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals & Mining - **Event**: GS Asia Commodity Corporate Day held from February 2-4, featuring 13 companies involved in various commodities including copper, aluminum, lithium, tungsten, nickel, cobalt, rare earths, gold, silver, graphite, potash, coal, and battery materials [1][2] Key Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Positive outlook from miners and producers across most commodities, supported by solid supply and demand fundamentals. However, supply constraints are more pronounced compared to previous cycles due to factors like government controls and trade barriers [2][3] - **Supply Constraints**: Ongoing resource degradation, lack of large expansions, and government-imposed production quotas (e.g., in China and Indonesia) are significant challenges. The concentration of assets geographically and in technical expertise further complicates the supply landscape [2][3] - **Long-term Value Appreciation**: There is a growing recognition of the long-term value of resources, particularly in copper, gold, lithium, and tungsten, with companies expecting output growth of 20-100% over the next 3-5 years [3] Company-Specific Insights China Qinfa Group (中国秦发) - **Key Commodities**: Coal - **Production Outlook**: Management anticipates production output to exceed 10 million tons of raw coal by 2026, with significant growth expected from underground mining operations [11][12][13] - **Government Regulations**: Increased supply discipline due to government regulations, including production quotas and potential export taxes, is expected to impact pricing and production strategies [11][12] - **Cost Structure**: Current total unit cost is Rmb310 per ton, with expectations to reduce costs to Rmb200 per ton as production ramps up [15] - **CAPEX Plans**: Future capital expenditures will focus on expanding mining operations, with each new pit expected to cost Rmb2.0-3.0 billion, primarily funded through equity [17] Other Companies Mentioned - **CMOC Group (洛阳钼业)**: Rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$27.0/Rmb28.0 [8] - **Huayou Cobalt (华友钴业)**: Rated as a "Sell" with a target price of Rmb45.0 [8] - **Zijin Mining Group (紫金矿业)**: Rated as a "Buy" with a target price of HK$52.0/Rmb50.0 [8] Additional Considerations - **Geographic Focus**: Preferred mining assets are primarily located in Africa, Central Asia, and domestic China, indicating a strategic shift towards regions with favorable mining conditions [3] - **Technological Advancements**: Companies are exploring new technologies and processes to improve efficiency and reduce costs, such as the use of wet jigging processes to enhance washing yields [18] Conclusion The conference highlighted a generally optimistic outlook for the metals and mining sector, driven by strong demand and strategic adjustments to supply constraints. Companies are positioning themselves for significant growth in the coming years, particularly in coal production, while navigating regulatory challenges and cost management strategies.

Summary of CMOC Research Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC (China Molybdenum Co., Ltd.) - **Ticker**: 603993.SS / 3993.HK - **Industry**: Non-ferrous metals, primarily mining and processing - **Key Assets**: Tenke Fungurume Mine (TFM) and Kisanfu Mine (KFM) in DR Congo, leading producer of tungsten, cobalt, niobium, molybdenum, and a major copper producer Key Financial Updates - **Target Price Revision**: - H-share target price raised to HK$28.3 from HK$20.6 - A-share target price raised to Rmb25.5 from Rmb19.0 - Target price implies 16.2x PE for H-share and 16.3x PE for A-share based on DCF valuation [1][5][32] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Revised net profit estimates for 2025/26/27E increased by 3.8%/34.2%/17.5% to Rmb20.5bn/33.9bn/31.8bn, respectively [1][4][9] - **Earnings Breakdown**: - Expected EBIT from TFM+KFM at Rmb47.2bn in 2026E, covering 82% of total EBIT - Contributions from other segments: Moly and Tungsten (8%), Brazil gold assets (6%), Niobium and Phosphate (3%) [3] Brazil Gold Assets Acquisition - **Acquisition Details**: Completed in January 2026, expected to produce 7.1 tons of gold in 2026E - **Financial Impact**: Anticipated contribution of Rmb2.4bn to net profit, accounting for 7% of total net profit based on a gold price forecast of US$4,600/oz [2][4] Market and Price Sensitivity - **Copper and Cobalt Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit sensitivity analysis indicates significant impact from fluctuations in copper and cobalt prices [10] - **Gold Price Sensitivity**: - Net profit also sensitive to changes in gold prices, with a base case at US$4,600/oz [12] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Maintained as "Buy" due to positive business fundamentals, including expected output increases from TFM and KFM expansion projects and bullish medium-term copper price outlook driven by renewable energy demand [31][35] Risks - **Key Risks**: - Slowing grid investment in China - Weaker-than-expected real estate investment affecting copper demand - Acceleration of global mine supply could negatively impact prices [33][37] Conclusion - CMOC is positioned for growth with revised profit forecasts and strategic acquisitions, while maintaining a positive outlook on copper prices and operational expansions. However, investors should remain cautious of potential market risks that could affect performance.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid, with gold's role shifting from an inflation hedge to a geopolitical risk and dollar credit weakening hedge [1][22]. - As of the end of January, China's official gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces compared to December 2025, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [1][17]. - The precious metals market is influenced by factors such as global central bank gold purchases, a weakening dollar, and the restructuring of the global monetary system [1][22]. Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining ETF tracks the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, showing strong price elasticity and higher beta values, particularly in commodity bull markets or inflationary environments [2]. - The non-ferrous mining index has achieved a cumulative increase of 279.71% over the past decade, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous indices [2][12]. - The index's annualized return over the past decade is 14.71%, with a volatility of 30.04% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.63, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [15]. Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining index is heavily weighted towards copper, gold, and aluminum, which together account for over 58% of the index [7]. - Key components of the index include Zijin Mining (9.44% weight), Luoyang Molybdenum (9.25% weight), and Northern Rare Earth (5.69% weight) [10]. - The index's performance is characterized by higher elasticity compared to similar indices, reflecting its strategic significance in both industrial development and financial markets [12][15].

每经AI快讯，洛阳钼业(03993.HK)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.09%，报22.9港元，成交额2.37亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 22.9, following the completion of a USD 1.015 billion acquisition of a gold mine in Brazil, which has reserves of 3.87 million ounces at an average grade of 1.45 grams per ton [1] Group 1: Acquisition and Production Plans - The acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine is expected to synergize with the company's existing copper and cobalt businesses, enhancing overall profitability [1] - Management plans to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production by 2026, with a target to increase annual production to 20 tons before 2030 [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production Guidance - Morgan Stanley has raised the company's profit expectations for 2026-2027 by 27%-30%, anticipating over 50% profit growth for consecutive years [1] - The copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 760,000 to 820,000 tons, driven by process optimization and technological upgrades at TFM and KFM mines [1] - The KFM Phase II project is expected to commence production in 2027, adding approximately 100,000 tons of copper capacity annually [1] - The target for copper production in 2028 is set at 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons, with the TFM Phase III project currently undergoing feasibility studies for additional capacity [1] - The company aims to further optimize copper business unit costs by reducing bulk material procurement prices and maintaining leading capital expenditure and operational cost levels globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) has seen a stock increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 22.9 with a transaction volume of HKD 237 million, following the completion of a USD 1.015 billion acquisition of a gold mine in Brazil, which has reserves of 3.87 million ounces at an average grade of 1.45 grams per ton [1] Group 1: Acquisition and Production Plans - The acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine is expected to synergize with the company's existing copper and cobalt businesses, enhancing overall profitability [1] - Management plans to contribute 6-8 tons of gold production by 2026 and aims to increase annual production to 20 tons before 2030 [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production Guidance - Morgan Stanley has raised the company's profit expectations for 2026-2027 by 27%-30%, anticipating over 50% profit growth for consecutive years [1] - The copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 760,000 to 820,000 tons, driven by process optimization and technological upgrades at TFM and KFM mines [1] - The KFM Phase II project is expected to commence production in 2027, adding approximately 100,000 tons of copper capacity annually [1] Group 3: Cost Optimization - The company aims to further optimize unit costs in its copper business by reducing the procurement price of bulk materials and maintaining leading levels of capital expenditure and operational costs globally [1]