证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858） 2024 年中报点评：转作风革故鼎新，强执行 久久为功 2024 年 08 月 29 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 73969 | 83272 | 91689 | 100935 | 112596 | | 同比（%） | 11.72 | 12.58 | 10.11 | 10.08 | 11.55 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 26690 | 30211 | 33406 | 37333 | 42435 | | 同比（%） | 14.17 | 13.19 | 10.58 | 11.76 | 13.67 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 6.88 | 7.78 | 8.61 | 9.62 ...

| --- | |-------------------------| | 李美仪(分析师) | | 021-38038667 | | limeiyi026738@gtjas.com | | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读： 公司 24Q2 延续双位数增长，业绩符合预期，其中主品牌表现稳健、浓香酒结构升 级。24 年以来普五控量挺价，同时产品矩阵逐步完善，全年增长目标无虞。 投资要点： | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-----------|--------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 168.74 | | | 上次预测: | 168.74 | | [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] | | 114.00 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | 52 周内股价区间（元） | ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached RMB 50.648 billion, an increase of 11.30% year-over-year[10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 19.057 billion, up 11.86% compared to the same period last year[10] - Operating cash flow increased by 18.52% to RMB 13.428 billion[11] - Basic earnings per share rose to RMB 4.910, an 11.87% increase from the previous year[11] - Total assets grew by 12.42% to RMB 185.985 billion[11] - The weighted average return on equity decreased by 0.49 percentage points to 13.70%[11] - Non-recurring gains and losses amounted to RMB 118.016 million[14] - Wuliangye's total operating revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 47.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.46%[19] - The gross profit margin of Wuliangye products was 86.69%, slightly down by 0.11% compared to the same period last year[19] - The sales revenue of other liquor products increased by 17.77% year-on-year, reaching 7.91 billion yuan[19] - The total number of Wuliangye dealers increased by 98, reaching 2,530[19] - The production volume of Wuliangye products increased by 10.74% year-on-year, reaching 22,910 tons[24] - The company's raw material procurement cost was 5.07 billion yuan, accounting for 55.53% of the total operating cost[23] - Inventory of finished liquor is 40,742 tons, and semi-finished liquor (including ceramic jar base liquor) is 180,940 tons[25] - The company's brand value reached 449.872 billion yuan, ranking 15th in the "2024 China 500 Most Valuable Brands" list[26] - Total operating income for the reporting period was 50.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.30%[27] - Revenue from the liquor category accounted for 93.02% of total operating income, reaching 47.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.46%[28] - The gross profit margin of the liquor category was 82.59%, with a slight decrease of 0.02% compared to the same period last year[29] - Revenue from the eastern region increased by 15.70% year-on-year, reaching 13.552 billion yuan[28] - Revenue from the western region increased by 16.66% year-on-year, reaching 16.759 billion yuan[28] - The company's R&D investment increased by 17.75% year-on-year, reaching 159.761 million yuan[27] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 18.52% year-on-year, reaching 13.428 billion yuan[27] - The company's liquor production capacity is 17.5627 million tons, with an actual capacity of 7.8024 million tons in the first half of the year[25] - Northern region revenue reached 4,841,310,361.21 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.16%[30] - Central region revenue reached 8,462,195,848.29 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.22%[30] - Sales expenses totaled 5,366,342,173.42 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.21%, with promotional expenses accounting for 64.11%[31] - Advertising expenses included 128 million yuan for online ads, 548 million yuan for offline ads, and 256 million yuan for TV ads[32] - Monetary funds amounted to 128,714,842,080.74 yuan, accounting for 69.21% of total assets[33] - Inventory decreased by 1.45% to 16,847,018,906.97 yuan compared to the previous year[33] - Contract liabilities increased by 0.24% to 8,157,503,632.65 yuan[33] - Financial assets totaled 19,577,630,505.90 yuan, with a significant increase in receivables financing[34] - Restricted monetary funds amounted to 234,648,885.56 yuan, primarily due to bank acceptance guarantees[35] - Subsidiary Yibin Wuliangye Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 12,460,145,152.08 yuan[39] - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 50.648 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.30%[42] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company reached 19.057 billion yuan, up 11.86% year-on-year[42] - The brand value increased by double digits for the seventh consecutive year, reaching 449.8 billion yuan[42] - The company's cash dividend for 2023 totaled 18.127 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 60%[44] - Wuliangye Group increased its shareholding by 3,406,668 shares, accounting for 0.09% of the total share capital, with a total investment of 500.0016 million yuan[45] - The employee stock ownership plan involved 2,428 employees holding a total of 23,696,280 shares, accounting for 0.61% of the total share capital[51] - Total assets increased to 185.98 billion yuan from 165.43 billion yuan, a growth of 12.4%[89] - Monetary funds rose to 128.71 billion yuan from 115.46 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5%[87] - Accounts receivable financing grew to 19.58 billion yuan from 14.09 billion yuan, up 39.0%[87] - Inventory decreased to 16.85 billion yuan from 17.39 billion yuan, a decline of 3.1%[87] - Total liabilities increased to 51.94 billion yuan from 33.08 billion yuan, a rise of 57.0%[89] - Contract liabilities rose to 8.16 billion yuan from 6.86 billion yuan, up 18.8%[88] - Net profit attributable to parent company owners increased to 90.34 billion yuan from 89.41 billion yuan, a growth of 1.0%[89] - Fixed assets decreased to 5.14 billion yuan from 5.19 billion yuan, a decline of 0.9%[87] - Construction in progress increased to 6.81 billion yuan from 5.62 billion yuan, up 21.1%[87] - Intangible assets grew to 2.65 billion yuan from 2.06 billion yuan, an increase of 28.6%[87] - Total current liabilities increased to 18,378,093,001.93, up from 256,899,898.89[92] - Total operating income for the first half of 2024 reached 50,648,026,578.65, a 11.3% increase compared to 45,506,384,818.37 in the same period of 2023[93] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders rose to 19,056,829,528.87, up from 17,036,708,791.18 in the previous year[94] - Basic earnings per share increased to 4.910 from 4.389 in the prior year[94] - Total liabilities and owner's equity amounted to 81,097,723,073.77, slightly higher than 80,528,835,543.17 in the previous period[93] - Research and development expenses grew to 159,760,941.28, up from 135,677,515.04 in the same period last year[93] - Total owner's equity increased to 80,263,939,356.80, up from 62,702,807,588.06[93] - Interest income rose to 1,423,837,619.29, compared to 1,259,323,479.12 in the previous year[93] - Total comprehensive income for the period reached 19,826,530,605.22, up from 17,792,533,904.19[94] - Net profit for the first half of 2024 increased to 565,977,614.61 yuan, up 14.25% from 495,397,188.02 yuan in the same period last year[95] - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 reached 13,427,928,655.63 yuan, an 18.52% increase from 11,329,818,886.30 yuan in the same period last year[96] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the first half of 2024 stood at 125,296,379,907.83 yuan, up 39.61% from 89,762,101,198.36 yuan at the end of the same period last year[97] - Sales revenue from goods and services for the first half of 2024 was 49,648,363,358.43 yuan, a 15.32% increase from 43,051,685,416.56 yuan in the same period last year[96] - Interest income for the first half of 2024 rose to 848,904,968.99 yuan, up 15.75% from 733,404,479.69 yuan in the same period last year[95] - Taxes and surcharges for the first half of 2024 decreased to 328,041.00 yuan, down 1.18% from 331,940.81 yuan in the same period last year[95] - R&D expenses for the first half of 2024 were 37,880,928.14 yuan, a 1.81% decrease from 38,580,473.31 yuan in the same period last year[95] - Investment cash outflow for the first half of 2024 was 1,087,312,766.70 yuan, a 19.16% decrease from 1,345,043,512.81 yuan in the same period last year[97] - Income tax expense for the first half of 2024 increased to 183,046,646.94 yuan, up 29.31% from 141,550,011.95 yuan in the same period last year[95] - Total comprehensive income for the first half of 2024 was 565,977,614.61 yuan, up 14.25% from 495,397,188.02 yuan in the same period last year[96] - Operating cash outflow totaled 1,373,381,162.76 RMB, a decrease from 1,149,121,193.81 RMB in the previous period[98] - Net cash flow from operating activities was -440,145,436.90 RMB, compared to 648,395,985.09 RMB in the previous period[98] - Net cash flow from investing activities was 296,577,713.48 RMB, a decrease from 1,201,006,446.88 RMB in the previous period[98] - Net cash flow from financing activities was -10,588,875,988.24 RMB, a significant decrease from the previous period[98] - Total owner's equity increased by 1,699,421,221.87 RMB, reaching 134,048,794,409.04 RMB[99] - Comprehensive income for the period was 19,056,829,528.87 RMB, contributing to the increase in owner's equity[99] - Profit distribution to owners amounted to -18,127,109,383.35 RMB, impacting the overall equity[100] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased by 8,739,473,556.27 RMB, ending at 41,236,165,303.90 RMB[98] - The company's retained earnings increased by 929,720,145.52 RMB, reaching 90,335,152,592.07 RMB[99] - Minority interest in the company increased by 769,701,076.35 RMB, totaling 3,560,833,223.01 RMB[99] - Total owner's equity at the end of the period is RMB 119,794,910,503.32[103] - The company allocated RMB -18,127,109,383.35 to shareholders during the period[104] - Comprehensive income for the period is RMB 565,977,614.61[104] - Undistributed profits at the end of the period are RMB 40,629,782,542.87[105] - Total owner's equity at the beginning of the period is RMB 80,263,939,356.80[104] - Capital reserve at the end of the period is RMB 2,682,647,086.15[105] - Undistributed profits decreased by RMB -17,561,131,768.74 during the period[104] - Total owner's equity decreased by RMB -17,561,131,768.74 during the period[104] - Comprehensive income for the previous period was RMB 495,397,188.02[105] - Undistributed profits at the beginning of the period were RMB 58,190,914,311.61[104] - The company's total equity at the end of the period was RMB 58,627,823,384.66[106] - The company distributed RMB 14,680,241,440.97 to shareholders[106] - The company's registered capital is RMB 388,160.80 million[107] - The company's total shares increased to 3,881,608,005 after the latest capital increase[108] - The company's major shareholder, Yibin Development Holding Group, holds 34.43% of the shares[108] - The company's second-largest shareholder, Yibin Wuliangye Group, holds 20.49% of the shares[108] - Yibin Wuliangye Group increased its shareholding by 3,406,668 shares, amounting to RMB 500,001,600[108] - The company operates in the beverage manufacturing industry, primarily producing "Wuliangye" and its series of liquors[109] - The financial statements were approved by the board of directors on August 27, 2024[110] - The company has the ability to continue operations for at least 12 months from the end of the reporting period, with no significant events affecting its ability to continue operations[111] - Important individual bad debt provisions for receivables are those that account for more than 10% of the total bad debt provisions for all types of receivables and exceed RMB 40 million[112] - Significant capital construction projects are those with an investment budget exceeding RMB 1 billion[113] - Important external R&D projects are those that account for more than 10% of the total R&D project budget and exceed RMB 40 million[113] - Important capitalized R&D projects are those that account for more than 10% of the total R&D project budget and exceed RMB 40 million in the current period[113] - Important prepayments, accounts payable, and other payables are those with an age of over 1 year, accounting for more than 10% of the corresponding items in the consolidated financial statements and exceeding RMB 100 million[113] - Important prepayments and contract liabilities are those with an age of over 1 year, accounting for more than 10% of the corresponding items in the consolidated financial statements and exceeding RMB 100 million[113] - Important investment projects are those where a single investment activity accounts for more than 10% of the total cash inflow or outflow from investment activities and exceeds RMB 1 billion[113] - Significant non-wholly owned subsidiaries are those where minority shareholders hold 5% or more of the equity, and the total assets, net assets, revenue, and net profit account for more than 10% of the corresponding items in the consolidated financial statements[113] - Significant joint ventures or associates are those where the long-term equity investment amount accounts for more than 1% of the total assets in the consolidated financial statements[113] - Foreign currency business and financial statement translation methods are based on the benchmark exchange rate published by the People's Bank of China[119] - Foreign currency cash flows and cash flows of overseas subsidiaries are translated using the spot exchange rate on the date of the cash flow[120] - Financial assets are initially measured at fair value, with transaction costs either expensed or included in the initial recognition amount[121] - Financial assets are classified and measured based on business models and contractual cash flow characteristics[120] - Debt instrument investments measured at amortized cost use the effective interest method for subsequent measurement[121] - Debt instrument investments measured at fair value with changes in other comprehensive income include impairment losses and gains in current profit or loss[121] - Financial assets not classified as amortized cost or fair value through other comprehensive income are measured at fair value through profit or loss[121] - Non-trading equity instrument investments designated at fair value through other comprehensive income have their dividend income recognized in current profit or loss[121] - The company classifies financial liabilities into those measured at amortized cost and those measured at fair value with changes in profit or loss[122] - Financial liabilities measured at fair value include trading financial liabilities and those initially designated as such[122] - The company uses expected credit loss (ECL) models to measure impairment for financial assets like receivables and debt investments[123] - For financial instruments with low credit risk, the company assumes no significant increase in credit risk and measures ECL over 12 months[123] - Receivables are grouped based on credit risk characteristics like bank acceptance bills, commercial acceptance bills, and external customers[123] - The company calculates ECL for receivables using historical loss experience and forward-looking information[123] - Contract assets and liabilities are presented net for the same contract when the company has transferred goods or services to the customer[124] - Inventory includes raw materials, packaging materials, semi-finished products, work-in-progress, finished goods, and consumables[125] - Inventory is valued using the weighted average method for grain, raw coal, and liquor production auxiliary materials[125] - Inventory is measured at the lower of cost or net realizable value, with any excess cost over net realizable value recognized as an impairment loss[125] - The company uses the perpetual inventory system for inventory management[125] - Low-value consumables are amortized using the one-time amortization method[125] - Non-current assets or disposal groups held for sale are classified based on their immediate saleability and the likelihood of sale within one year[126] - Initial measurement of held-for-sale assets is at the lower of their carrying amount or fair value less costs to sell[126] - Impairment losses on held-for-sale assets can be reversed if the fair value less costs to sell increases in subsequent periods[

然后公司到时候又操作了大概有几个月对市场对这一块就经济上这块压力还很大但最终价格因为受这个618还有受这个茅台批价的影响我连整体价格就是没有上涨然后第二阶段就是公司建于1019要执行了 客户类似感觉比较大然后我们那个黄天博总督然后就直接跟你领导商量之后直接要求就是在7月30号以前收货就是950收货8月10号以前960收货8月20号以前970的收货凡是按照这个时间节点低于这个价格的然后每个区都都要都可以收 然后并且在每个零会就是建立一个收货的基金池要在7月30号以前完成大概就是几千万的一两千万这个资金资金链然后进行循环的滚动这一次收货必须是要求对方要回购对方要加十块钱这个回购目前我们这个深圳区已经收了好几百件了 就是因为有经销商配合来做这个资金已经回到黄金板件整体上的话基本上突破这样第三块就还是说那个价格的问题价格的话就是说相当于大家整体上就是春节之后价格就是突破管控稍微提升嘛当时候大概可能在快到九五零左右九五零左右然后收着 618然后茅台批价然后有所下停目前的话就是说在大批量的话都在得在940 935左右反正我们本区客户出货基本上950不带票是小批量是可以出货的目前是这个价格然后就是整体上的看法来说的话 就是 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2024 年 07 月 08 日 五粮液(000858.SZ) 重新认识五粮液 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|--------|--------|--------|---------|---------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 73,969 | 83,272 | 91,674 | 102,033 | 114,277 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 11.7 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 26,690 | 30,211 | 33,874 | 38,298 | 43,581 | | 增长率 yoy(%) | 14.2 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 13.8 | | ROE(%) | 24.0 | 23.8 | 23.7 | 23.4 | 23.1 | | EPS 最新摊薄(元) | 6.88 | 7.78 | 8. ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2024 年 07 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 重申普五量价平衡,经典五粮液全系上市 [Table_Title2] 五粮液(000858) [Table_Summary] 事件概述 根据微酒公众号,6 月 28 日,五粮液 2023 年度股东大会在宜 宾顺利召开,本届股东大会实际参会人数超过 1000 人。 根据云酒头条公众号,7 月 2 日,经典五粮液战略发布会在成 都召开,发布经典五粮液 10、经典五粮液 20、经典五粮液 30、经典五粮液 50 全系产品。 分析判断: ► 重申八代普五量价平衡重要性,着力做深代际系列 根据微酒公众号,本次股东大会上,董事长曾从钦针对产品结 构、渠道建设以及未来的发力方向进行了详细回应,介绍了五粮 液接下来的系列动作。产品方面: 1)八代五粮液遵循量价平衡原则,持续优化投放节奏和商家结 构,不盲目追求计划量增加,优化其在五粮液主品牌中的市场投 放比例。根据微酒公众号,公司始终保持八代五粮液在市场上的 产品稀缺性,同时配合传统旺季积极开展动销活动,今年端午节 期间,八代五粮液的动销保持了两位数的同比增长。 ...

好 欢迎参加升华红日司仪每周早收到目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播放免责声明 请参会人员务必注意本次电话会议交流内容仅限参会人员内部参考任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对电话会议任何内容进行泄露或外发请勿以任何方式索要、泄露、散布、转发电话会议纪要任何泄露电话会议纪要等信息的行为均为侵权行为声望洪源研究保留追究泄露转发者法律责任的权利 各位投资者大家早上好我是深外食品饮料的那个分析师李昌今天我们继续每周早知道的这样一个系列电话会议这个电话会议呢其实主要的目的还是给大家去更新每周我们这个板块最近的这样一些动向那么上周的话呢主要是两家这个主要的白酒公司五粮业和罗州老窖这个分别召开了年度的总统大会同时呢 茅台的批价呢是这个继续的话是有所波动但上周的话是有所回文那么基本上上周的话最重要的最板块就是这几件事情那么跟大家做一个汇报和梳理那么主要也是分几块吧第一个的话就是跟大家去更新一下如如老家和我联系股东会上的一些内容然后另外呢我们的一个截图第二的话呢就是更新茅台的这样的一个这个情况第三的话呢然后再更新一下我们的观点 首先的话就是两家重点公司的年度股东大会了那么应该说两家重点公司这次交流我觉得还是比较充分比较中肯然后同 ...

食品饮料/必需消费 | (000858) | 评级: | 增持 | |---------------------------------|-------------------------------|----------------------------| | 定调稳健,路径清晰 | 目标价格: | 上次评级 : 增持 175.00 | | | 当前价格: Table_CurPrice] | 上次预测 : 192.00 128.30 | | 訾猛 ] ( 分析师 ) | | | | 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com | | 2024.07.02 | | S0880513120002 | | | | | 交易数据 | | | 1618 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 123.82-181.18 | | | 总市值(百万元) | 498,010 | | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股(百万股) | 3,882/3,882 | | | 流通 B 股 /H 股(百万股) | 0/0 | | | 资产负债表摘要 (LF) | | | | 股东权益(百万元) | 143,603 | | | ...

五粮液(000858.SZ) 节奏良好、战略清晰,传递稳健增长信心 公司研究·公司快评 食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ 投资评级:优于大市(维持) 证券分析师: 张向伟 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn 执证编码:S0980523090001 联系人: 张未艾 021-61761031 zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn 事项: 事件:2024 年 6 月 28 日,五粮液 2023 年股东大会在股份公司多功能厅召开,会议上董事长曾从钦以《稳 中求进,以进促稳:以稳健高质量发展巩固和强化龙头地位》为主题发表演讲,核心管理层就公司当前经 营状况、未来增长抓手等诸多市场关切与投资者进行充分交流,彰显公司高质量发展底气,强化市场信心。 国信食饮观点:1)2024 上半年经营节奏良好,预计公司核心产品动销实现双位数增长;2)公司产品规划 进一步清晰,长期增长抓手明确,主品牌持续丰富完善"1+3"产品矩阵,经典五粮液创新运营模式,长 期有望贡献吨价增长;3)渠道建设纵深推进,持续提升经销商盈利能力,并加快对直营渠道和新兴渠道 的良性建设。考虑到公司市场节奏良好,产品规划清晰,厂商关系向好,看好公司 ...

公司点评●白酒Ⅱ 2024 年 06 月 30 日 稳健+积极的性价比标的 核心观点: ⚫ 事件:6 月 28 日,公司召开股东大会,公司管理层针对公司 2023 年经 营情况和 2024 年重点工作进行交流。 ⚫ 大单品稳健经营:公司今年针对核心大单品第八代五粮液实施了控量挺 价的策略。从目前进展来看,在销量方面:根据广州日报,第八代五粮 液的动销和回款进度符合公司预期,社会库存也比较合理。在刚过去的 端午节,第八代五粮液的动销保持了两位数的同比增长;在价格方面: 根据百荣酒价的数据,第八代五粮液批发价格在 3 月-4 月由 925 元上行 至 940 元;5-6 月稳定在 940 元;6 月 20 日以来价格有所下行,6 月 29 日价格显示降至 925 元。我们认为最近价格下行受淡季需求偏淡和近期 茅台价格下降影响,目前茅台价格显示企稳迹象,五粮液批价通过短期 供货节奏调整也有望修复。整体而言,上半年公司大单品在量价平衡原 则下实现了稳健的发展。 ⚫ 其他主销产品发展较快:在第八代五粮液稳健经营的基础上,新增投放 量将向其他主要产品倾斜,主要包括 1618 五粮液、39 度五粮液、45 度 五粮液和 6 ...