Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][15]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by recovery in consumer demand and the sector's inherent growth potential [3][10]. - The report highlights the differentiation in performance across categories, with beverages outperforming food and alcoholic beverages [2][10]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in premium liquor brands, dairy products, and innovative snack foods, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong growth potential and market positioning [2][10][15]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.52% this week, with A-shares down 1.36% and H-shares down 3.69%. Notably, South Qiao Food and Yili Co. showed positive performance with increases of 11.91% and 2.65% respectively [1][3]. Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector is entering a left-side layout phase, with premium brands like Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Guizhou Moutai expected to gain market share. The report suggests a focus on companies with pricing power and regional influence [2][10]. - Moutai's price is currently down 26% year-on-year, indicating a potential for recovery in consumer demand during the upcoming festive season [10][15]. Beer - The beer industry is showing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends investing in leading brands like Yanjing Beer, which is expected to see profit growth supported by strong market fundamentals [2][11]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery in demand, with leading companies like Yili expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [2][13]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the konjac snack category, recommending companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi for their competitive advantages and strong growth trajectories [2][12][16]. Investment Recommendations - The recommended investment portfolio includes Guizhou Moutai, Baba Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, Weilong, and Luzhou Laojiao, reflecting a diversified approach across high-potential segments [3][15].

Core Viewpoint - The new tax regulation, effective from October 1, 2025, aims to enhance tax compliance in the traditional liquor industry, particularly targeting the opaque practices of small and medium-sized liquor merchants, leading to a significant industry reshaping and a "transparency revolution" [2][5]. Group 1: Compliance and Survival Pressure - The new regulation connects data reporting between platforms and tax authorities, rendering traditional tax evasion methods ineffective [3]. - The automatic identification of zero or low reporting and private account transactions will trigger tax audits, increasing the tax burden for merchants with monthly sales exceeding 100,000 yuan [5]. - Many small liquor merchants, previously surviving on tax loopholes, now face a critical survival test as their profit margins shrink significantly [5]. Group 2: Price System Reconstruction - The regulation is reshaping the e-commerce pricing system, moving away from the previous chaotic pricing strategies during events like Double 11 [6][7]. - Liquor prices on platforms have become more rational, with brands gaining unprecedented control over distribution channels, leading to a reduction in low-price dumping by unauthorized sellers [8]. Group 3: Channel Value Reassessment - The disappearance of e-commerce tax benefits has led to a renewed appreciation for offline channels, as they offer superior service experiences compared to online platforms [9]. - Traditional liquor stores are experiencing a revival as consumers prefer one-stop services, especially when online and offline prices are comparable [11]. Group 4: Industry Structure Reshaping - The transformation is accelerating the polarization within the liquor industry, benefiting leading brands with strong compliance and brand power while putting immense pressure on smaller players [12]. - The new regulation allows top brands to eliminate long-standing pricing issues and capture the market space left by struggling smaller merchants [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the new regulation presents challenges, it is seen as a necessary step towards a more compliant and sustainable industry, marking the end of "wild growth" and the beginning of a "compliance-driven" era [15]. - The long-term competition in the liquor industry will focus on brand strength, service quality, and supply chain efficiency rather than mere price competition [16][17].

Core Insights - The retail prices of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market have continued to rise, with an overall price of 9,291 yuan for a bundled sale, marking an increase of 8 yuan from the previous day, achieving four consecutive days of price increases [1] Price Movements - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a strong performance with a daily price increase of 8 yuan per bottle [1] - Guojiao 1573's price increased by 6 yuan per bottle [1] - Qinghualang's price rose by 5 yuan per bottle, marking five consecutive days of increases [1] - Prices for Shuijing Jian'nan Chun and Xijiu Junpin increased by 3 yuan and 2 yuan per bottle, respectively, showing stable trends [1] - Qinghualan 20's price rose by 2 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye Pu 58's price also increased by 2 yuan per bottle [1] - In contrast, the prices of some products decreased, with the boutique Moutai and Gujing Gong Gu 20 dropping by 9 yuan and 7 yuan per bottle, respectively [1] - Feitian Moutai's price fell by 4 yuan per bottle [1] Specific Product Prices - Feitian Moutai: 1,831 yuan per bottle, down 470 yuan [3] - Boutique Moutai: 2,369 yuan per bottle, down 9 yuan [3] - Wuliangye Pu 58: 868 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [3] - Qinghualan 20: 396 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [3] - Guojiao 1573: 895 yuan per bottle, up 670 yuan [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 600 yuan per bottle [3] - Gujing Gong Gu 20: 506 yuan per bottle, down 7 yuan [3] - Qinghualang: 730 yuan per bottle, down 570 yuan [4] - Shuijing Jian'nan Chun: 421 yuan per bottle, up 3 yuan [4] - Xijiu Junpin: 675 yuan per bottle, up 2 yuan [4]

Core Insights - The retail average price of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market continues to rise, reaching 9,291 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan from the previous day, marking four consecutive days of price increases [1] Price Movements - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ shows strong performance with a daily price increase of 8 yuan per bottle [1] - Guojiao 1573 price increased by 6 yuan per bottle [1] - Qinghua Lang price rose by 5 yuan per bottle, achieving five consecutive days of increases, leading the market [1] - Crystal Jian Nan Chun and Xijiu Junpin prices increased by 3 yuan and 2 yuan per bottle, respectively, showing stable trends [1] - Qinghua Fen 20 price increased by 2 yuan per bottle [1] - Wuliangye Pu 58 price also rose by 2 yuan per bottle [1] Price Declines - Premium Moutai and Gujing Gong Gu 20 experienced significant declines, with prices dropping by 9 yuan and 7 yuan per bottle, respectively [1] - Feitian Moutai price decreased by 4 yuan per bottle [1]

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to policy changes, consumption transformation, and intense competition [1] - Wuliangye's recent quarterly report shows a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, raising concerns about its position as the "second" in the white liquor market [1] Financial Performance - In the third quarter of 2025, Wuliangye reported revenue of 60.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.511 billion yuan, down 30.09% year-on-year [1] - For the third quarter of 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu surpassed Wuliangye in single-quarter revenue, achieving 8.960 billion yuan compared to Wuliangye's 8.174 billion yuan [1] - Wuliangye's net profit has dropped to fourth place among listed companies in the industry, with profits of 2.019 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2025 [1] Market Challenges - Wuliangye is facing a significant challenge with price inversion in the terminal market, particularly for its flagship product, the 52-degree/500ml Wuliangye [1] - The market price for this product has decreased from 950 yuan at the beginning of 2025 to 855 yuan as of November 2025 [1] - The decline in market prices has led to reduced willingness among distributors to make payments, with Wuliangye's contract liabilities decreasing for three consecutive quarters [1] Strategic Initiatives - In response to market pressures, Wuliangye is actively seeking to innovate its market strategy and product offerings to cater to diverse consumer needs [1] - The company has introduced a high-end low-alcohol product, "29-degree Wuliangye: One Glance and Heart," aimed at attracting younger consumers [1] - Wuliangye's chairman emphasized the importance of adapting to changing consumer trends, including younger demographics and digital channels [1] Industry Outlook - The overall development environment for the white liquor industry remains challenging, with Wuliangye's ability to stabilize core product prices and invigorate distribution channels being critical for navigating the current market downturn [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - The wholesale prices of Baijiu have mostly declined, while prices for instant foods and condiments have rebounded [1][10]. - Discounts for convenience foods and seasonings have narrowed compared to the end of October, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [19][38]. - The report highlights the stability of discounts for infant formula and beer, while discounts for liquid milk and soft drinks have increased [21][38]. Summary by Sections Baijiu Pricing - The wholesale prices for various Baijiu brands, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, have shown significant declines compared to previous months and year-to-date figures [9][40]. - For instance, the price of Feitian Moutai (case) is 1650 yuan, down by 110 yuan from last month, and down 590 yuan year-to-date [40]. Consumer Goods Discounts - Convenience foods have seen an increase in average and median discount rates, moving from 93.2%/95.9% at the end of October to 95.8%/97.0% [19][38]. - Seasonings also experienced a rise in discount rates, from 83.7%/84.9% to 85.9%/88.9% [19][38]. - In contrast, liquid milk discounts have widened, with average rates dropping from 69.6% to 66.0% [21][38]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with an "Outperform" rating, including: - Guizhou Moutai - Wuliangye - Luzhou Laojiao - Shanxi Fenjiu - Yanghe - Others [1].

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）11月24日尾盘，沪指3836.77点上涨0.05%。白酒板块2248.25点收盘上涨0.17% ，其中11只白酒股上涨。 中信建投在其研报中指出，当前食饮板块经历回调，估值已处于历史相对低位，市场预期较弱。白酒行业动销持续磨底，茅台治理电商乱象稳定价格预期，以业绩出清卸包袱+强品牌支撑动销+强 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1452.00元/股，下跌1.00%；五粮液收盘价达118.52元/股，下跌0.97%；山西汾酒收盘价达192.40元/股，下跌0.31%；泸州老窖收盘价达132.92元/股， ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu industry, is experiencing a market correction with valuations at relatively low historical levels, while market expectations remain weak [2] Group 1: Market Performance - On November 24, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05% [2] - The baijiu sector closed at 2248.25 points, increasing by 0.17%, with 11 baijiu stocks rising [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1452.00 CNY per share, down 1.00% [2] - Wuliangye closed at 118.52 CNY per share, down 0.97% [2] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 192.40 CNY per share, down 0.31% [2] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 132.92 CNY per share, down 0.95% [2] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 66.50 CNY per share, down 0.67% [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the baijiu industry is currently in a phase of bottoming out, with ongoing sales struggles [2] - Moutai is addressing e-commerce chaos to stabilize price expectations, supported by performance-driven strategies and strong brand influence [2] - The industry is exploring new marketing models while leveraging strong operational capabilities to enhance channel performance [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market, particularly the baijiu sector, experienced significant growth in 2020, with A-shares leading globally. The overall revenue for 19 listed baijiu companies reached 258.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.58% [1][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies totaled 92.068 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 11.95% compared to the previous year [1][5] - There is a notable divergence in performance among baijiu companies, with leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye achieving double-digit growth, while some smaller brands faced significant declines [4][9] Revenue Performance - In 2020, 19 listed baijiu companies reported a total revenue of 258.94 billion yuan, with 11 companies showing positive growth and 8 experiencing negative growth [2][5] - The highest revenue growth was recorded by Jiugui Liquor at 20.79%, while Qingqing Qiao experienced a decline of 39.07%, marking a difference of 59.86 percentage points [2][3] - The top three companies by revenue were Moutai (94.915 billion yuan), Wuliangye (57.321 billion yuan), and Yanghe (21.101 billion yuan) [4] Profit Analysis - The six leading baijiu companies accounted for over 90% of the total profits in the sector, with Moutai alone contributing more than 36% of total revenue and over 50% of total profits [7][9] - Moutai's net profit reached 46.697 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.33%, while Wuliangye's net profit was 19.955 billion yuan, growing by 14.67% [6][7] - Jiugui Liquor showed remarkable performance with a net profit growth of 64.15%, while Qingqing Qiao reported a significant loss of 1.15 billion yuan [6][7] Market Dynamics - The pandemic initially impacted the baijiu industry negatively, but leading brands demonstrated resilience, with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving substantial growth [9] - The disparity in performance is evident, with some companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Jiugui Liquor seeing stock prices increase over threefold, while others struggled [9][11] - The overall tax contributions from the baijiu sector increased significantly, with a 48% rise in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the previous year, attributed to a recovery from the pandemic [14][15] Financial Health - As of March 2021, Wuliangye had the highest cash reserves among listed baijiu companies, totaling 73.38 billion yuan, while Moutai had approximately 50.743 billion yuan [17][18] - The financial strength of these companies is crucial for their ability to invest and expand in a competitive market [17] Compensation Trends - Moutai reported the highest average employee salary in the sector at over 300,000 yuan, while the lowest was at less than 52,000 yuan for Huangtai Liquor [19][20] - The management compensation for Moutai was relatively low compared to other companies, with total management salaries below 3.72 million yuan [21][23]

大众品成长优先，白酒预期先行 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 2025-11-24 行 业 双 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本报告导读： 成长优先，并重视低估值及长期成长确定性较强的传统消费龙头价值修复。伊利股 份发布股东回报规划，传递稳健信号。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 投资建议：近期 CPI 数据催化板块预期回暖，成长为主线、重视供 需出清下的拐点机会。1）白酒关注成长及先出清标的：山西汾酒、 古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、今世缘、珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、金徽酒以及 稳健标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖；2）饮料结构性高增，重 点关注东鹏饮料、农夫山泉（港股），重视低估值高股息，重点关注 中国食品（港股）、康师傅控股（港股）、统一企业中国（港股）、中 国旺旺（港股）；3）零食及食品原料成长标的：重点关注百龙创园、 盐津铺子、卫龙美味（港股）、三只松鼠、西麦食品；4）啤酒重点 关注燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、珠江啤酒、百润股份，华润啤 ...