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Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Wuliangye (000858) [2] Core Views - Wuliangye delivered solid Q3 2024 results with revenue of RMB 67.92 billion (+8.6% YoY) and net profit of RMB 24.93 billion (+9.19% YoY) [3] - The company maintained stable profitability with Q3 gross margin at 76.17% (+2.77pct YoY) and net margin at 34.02% (-0.02pct YoY) [3] - Wuliangye adjusted its business strategy to strengthen shareholder returns, with a minimum 70% dividend payout ratio (up from 60% in 2023) and at least RMB 20 billion in annual cash dividends [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 32.79 billion, RMB 35.67 billion, and RMB 38.93 billion in 2024-2026, representing YoY growth of 8.5%, 8.8%, and 9.1% respectively [3] Financial Performance Income Statement - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 89.91 billion in 2024 to RMB 105.34 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.2% [4] - Net profit margin is expected to increase from 36.5% in 2024 to 37.0% in 2026 [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 8.45 in 2024 to RMB 10.03 in 2026 [4] Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from RMB 182.39 billion in 2024 to RMB 214.31 billion in 2026 [5] - Current ratio is expected to improve from 4.86 in 2024 to 5.42 in 2026 [5] - Debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to decline from 18.6% in 2024 to 16.8% in 2026 [5] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from RMB 30.67 billion in 2024 to RMB 36.56 billion in 2026 [5] - Free cash flow is projected to grow steadily, supported by efficient working capital management [5] Valuation - The stock is trading at 17.6x, 16.2x, and 14.8x forward P/E for 2024-2026 [4] - Dividend yield is estimated at 3.98% based on the 70% payout ratio [3] - P/B ratio is expected to decline from 4.0x in 2024 to 3.4x in 2026 [5] Business Strategy - Wuliangye is optimizing its product mix, focusing on premium products like Classic Wuliangye to capture high-end market share [3] - The company is strengthening channel management and dealer relationships to maintain healthy manufacturer-distributor dynamics [3] - Marketing efforts are increasingly consumer-centric, emphasizing consumption activation, banquets, and tasting events [3]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 证券研究报告 | | 食品饮料 | | | 报告日期： 2024 年 11 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [4][11]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady and high-quality development, with a cash dividend plan that boosts market confidence. The operating income, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 2024 were 172.68 billion, 58.74 billion, and 58.94 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 1.39%, 1.34%, and 1.61% [1][2]. - The gross margin has steadily increased, attributed to the rise in factory prices and product mix upgrades, while the net margin slightly declined due to increased expense ratios [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 76.17% and a net margin of 35.41%, with the gross margin increasing by 2.77 percentage points year-on-year and the net margin decreasing by 0.06 percentage points [1]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 163.66 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.99%, and the company’s contract liabilities reached a historical high of 74.63 billion yuan [2]. - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend rate of no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, with a minimum total cash dividend of 20 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026 [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 9% year-on-year for the years 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 905 billion, 983 billion, and 1071 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is also forecasted to grow by 9% annually during the same period [3][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 8.49 yuan in 2024 to 10.04 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X for the respective years [3][6].

来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源：彭博 五粮液（000858） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-------------------------|------------|---------------|-------------------------------| | 经营业绩控速调整，分红规划再创新高 | 买入 | | | | | 黎航荣 | 2024 年 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 11 月 4 日 000858.SZ 五粮液 公司调整经营节奏，股东回报提振信心 五粮液公告 2024 年 3 季报业绩。1-3Q24 公司营收 679.2 亿元，同比+8.6%， 归母净利 249.3 亿元，同比+9.2%，3Q24 公司营收、归母净利分别为 172.7 亿元、58.7 亿元，同比分别+1.4%、+1.3%。截至 3 季度末，公司合同负债 70.7 亿元，环比-10.9 亿元，上年同期环比+3.0 亿元。公司公告 2024-2026 年 股东回报规划，提振信心。外部消费环境短期承压，公司主动调整经营节奏， 我们看好龙头品牌中长期发展，维持买入评级。 支撑评级的要点 公司调整经营节奏，3 季度业绩环比降速。3Q24 公司营收 172.7 亿元， 同比+1.4%，营收环比降速（1H24 营收同比+11.3%）。我们判断，主要 系年初以来高端餐饮及商务消费场景萎缩，高端名酒在今年中秋礼赠场 景中受阻，动销承压。此外，根据公司打款政策，大部分经销商已回款 全年任务的 80%，因此 3 季度公司结合市场动销及产品批价表现，主动 控制发货节奏， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye (000858) [4] Core Views - Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 172.68 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.34%, slightly below expectations [2][6] - The company announced a cash dividend policy for 2024-2026, with annual cash dividends not less than 70% of net profit attributable to shareholders and not less than 20 billion yuan (including tax), which is expected to boost market confidence [2][6] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 increased by 2.77 percentage points year-on-year to 76.17%, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 34.02%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points [6] - The company's sales cash inflow in Q3 2024 was 282.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.70%, faster than the revenue growth, likely due to the maturity of bank acceptance bills during the Spring Festival peak season [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - For the first three quarters of 2024, Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 679.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.60%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 249.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.19% [6] - The report forecasts that Wuliangye's operating revenue for 2024-2026 will be 891.03 billion yuan, 936.08 billion yuan, and 982.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.00%, 5.06%, and 5.01%, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 326.09 billion yuan, 342.66 billion yuan, and 364.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.94%, 5.08%, and 6.51%, respectively [6] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 18X, 17X, and 16X, respectively [6] Industry and Market Position - Wuliangye is positioned as a leading player in the strong aroma liquor segment, with strong resilience in the thousand-yuan price range [2][6] - The company's new products, such as 1618 and low-alcohol variants, are expected to drive incremental growth [2][6] - The liquor industry is facing weak demand, but Wuliangye's market position and product strategy are expected to support stable growth [6]

华福证券 五粮液（000858.SZ） 三季报加速出清，提升分红率强化信心 投资要点： 事件： 五粮液 24Q1-Q3 实现营收 679.16 亿元，同比增长 8.60%；实现归 母净利润 249.3 亿元，同比增长 9.19%。其中，24Q3 单季度公司实现 营收 172.68 亿元，同比增长 1.39%；实现归母净利润 58.74 亿元，同 比增长 1.34%。公司三季度压力加速释放，Q3 营收及利润同比增速较 Q1 及 Q2 收窄明显。 公司 2024Q3 预收账款（统计口径为合同负债与其他流动负债的总 和）为 74.63 亿元，按照"季度营业收入+季度间预收账款变动"所体 现出来的真实营收，Q3 真实营收同比下降 7.95%。 毛利率稳健提升，净利率受费用率提升影响同比微降 2024Q3 公司实现毛利率 76.18%，同比提升 2.77pct。费用端， 2024Q3 销售费用率/管理费用率/研发费用率/财务费用率分别为 14.03%/4.01%/0.53%/-4.16% ， 同 比 分 别 +2.83pct/+0.22pct/+0.10pct/ -0.86pct，期间费用率整体同比+2.29pct。净 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858） 2024 年前三季度业绩点评：边际降速，节奏 务实 2024 年 10 月 31 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 73969 | 83272 | 90122 | 99638 | 110433 | | 同比（ % ） | 11.72 | 12.58 | 8.23 | 10.56 | 10.83 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 26690 | 30211 | 32920 | 37066 | 41781 | | 同比（ % ） | 14.17 | 13.19 | 8.97 | 12.59 | 12.72 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 6.88 | 7.78 | 8.48 | 9 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 10 月 31 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：146.83 元 五 粮 液（000858）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 收入增长环比放缓，分红规划提振信心 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024年三季报，前三季度实现收入 679.2亿元，同比+8.6%， 归母净利润 249.3 亿元，同比+9.2%；其中单 Q3 实现收入 172.7 亿元，同比 +1.4%，归母净利润58.7 亿元，同比+1.3%。 外部需求表现低迷，收入增速环比放缓。1、24Q3 外部消费环境有所承压，商 务和礼赠消费出现降档降频，婚宴等宴席消费亦不及去年同期，需求低迷的情 况下，公司单三季度收入增长环比有所放缓。2、产品端，双节期间公司兼顾放 量和价盘，普五延续流速快、高周转，在千元价位中动销最为强势，批价保持 在 925-935元中小幅波动，节后库存处在合理水平。1618和低度在扫码红包刺 激下，渠道积极性高，实现较快增长；此外，经典五粮液 10/20/30/50系列卡位 超高端，正扎实推进消费者培育。3、渠道端，双节旺季期 ...