Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is undergoing a significant adjustment period in 2025, facing various challenges and opportunities, as highlighted in the "2025 China Liquor Market Mid-term Research Report" released on June 18, 2025 [1][8]. Market Performance: Overall Pressure and Increasing Differentiation - In 2024, the liquor industry exhibited a "declining volume but increasing profit" phenomenon, with a total production of 4.145 million kiloliters, down 1.8% year-on-year, while sales revenue reached 796.38 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year, and total profit soared to 250.87 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year [4][11]. - The concentration of profits among leading companies has increased, with the CR6 companies (Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, and Gujing Gongjiu) accounting for 86% of the industry's total profit, up from 55% in 2014, indicating a rising industry concentration and a pronounced Matthew effect [4][12]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the industry faced continued pressure, with production down 7.2% year-on-year, but listed liquor companies performed better, achieving operating revenue of 153.42 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year, and net profit of 64.91 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year [4][27]. - Survey results indicated that 59.7% of liquor companies experienced a decrease in operating profit in the first half of 2025, with 50.9% reporting a decline in revenue, primarily due to a reduction in customer numbers and average transaction value [4][31]. Consumption Trends: Youthful and Rational - The younger consumer group (born between 1985 and 1994) is becoming a breakthrough point in the segmented market, while business and management personnel remain the main consumers [5]. - The consumption focus is shifting from the 300-500 yuan price range to the 100-300 yuan range, with the 500-800 yuan range facing survival difficulties, driven by rational consumption that favors high-cost performance products [5]. - Consumption scenarios are increasingly moving towards weddings, family gatherings, and solo drinking, while business banquets are declining, prompting companies to adjust product strategies [5]. Channel Transformation: Diversification and Digitalization - The channel layout is becoming more diversified, with a significant increase in direct sales and online business for many liquor companies, with nearly 40% reporting steady growth in online sales [6]. - From January to May 2025, online sales exceeded 30 billion yuan, with 42.9% of companies reporting growth in online business [6][35]. - In 2024, 18 A-share listed liquor companies reported online sales revenue of 33.22 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, but the average proportion of online sales to total revenue increased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.0% [6][37]. Future Outlook: Transformation and International Exploration - 2025 is a critical period for the liquor industry to transform and upgrade, focusing on regional construction, digital channel development, product innovation, and cultural marketing [7]. - Despite short-term pressures from inventory digestion and weak demand, the industry is expected to gradually shift towards a value competition model based on "quality + brand + culture" [7]. - Over 60% of liquor companies are expanding into overseas markets, primarily in the Asia-Pacific region, necessitating the creation of products that align with foreign consumer habits and values [7].

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 来源|表外表里 文|陈梓洁 严贝贝 编辑|曹宾玲 一阵开卷门的声音传来，百荣酒水商户芳芳低头看了眼手机，已经中午 11 点了。 她 所 在 的 批 发 市 场 ， 号 称 " 白 酒 界 宇 宙 中 心 " ， 地 位 就 像 华 强 北 之 于 手 机 、 水 贝 之 于 黄 金，业内任何风吹草动，第一时间会传递到这里。 然而如今，偌大的商场仿佛生了锈的链条，商户开门营业的时间越来越晚，物流车停在门 口，一整天也装不满发车。 经销商海涛以前有个小仓库，现在退掉了，只做 "快进快出"的生意：从上级经销商那里 直接寄给客户，除了货款，搬运、换标等事情概不经手。 他连接单都不积极了，如果不是老客户找上门，很多时候海涛都不开张： "没利润，都是 平价进平价出，顺手做人情，但人家以为你还挣几块钱。" 跟酒打了近 2 0 年的交道，海涛也算小有见识，行业低迷至此，却是第一次碰上。 今 年 618 ， 5 0 0ml 飞 天 茅 台 " 到 手 价 " 只 要 1968 元 ， 击 穿 2 0 0 0 警 戒 线 ； 五 粮 液 " 普 五"一度 ...

今日（6.23）A股集体收红，消费板块走弱，消费ETF（159928）逆市下跌0.76%，全天交投放量成交额 2.88亿元，最新规模超121亿元同类领先！ 消息面上，国际局势风云突变，美方下场加剧中东紧张局势。国内方面，据证券日报，今年以来，我国 宏观政策精准调控，经济展现出较强的韧性与活力。上半年，在大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的驱 动下，消费与投资持续发力，国民经济运行总体平稳，高质量发展态势持续，展现出较强的韧劲和活 力。多位专家表示，2025年上半年，我国GDP实现5%以上增长目标基本无虞，二季度增速或达5.3%左 右。 截至收盘，消费ETF（159928）标的指数成分股多数回调：山西汾酒跌超3%，古井贡酒跌超2%，五粮 液、伊利股份、东鹏饮料跌超1%，贵州茅台、泸州老窖、牧原股份、温氏股份微跌。 【2025年中期策略发布，大消费再获机构关注！】 天风证券表示，内需消费是行业主线。从长期逻辑看，消费的核心逻辑是政策加码预期下的重估预期， 提振内需稳增长政策是外部环境不确定性增强下的主要政策储备方向。与此同时，通过化债疏压，优化 财政支出结构。消费基本面拐点或已现，宏微观数据呈现诸多积极信号，宏观数据 ...

酒行业丨市场观察 本周看点： -中 国葡萄酒，没有品牌的巨人； -酒类直播迎来新时代； -"苏超"这么火，酒业要跟上。 概要 ： 中国葡萄酒产业虽产量居全球前列，但品牌认知度低、高端市场占有率少。主要问题 包括产业链碎片化、品牌塑造不足、品质信任危机及外部竞争压力。破局需产区整合、培育龙 头企业，实施品牌战略革命，精准定位市场，融入文化元素，同时加强科研投入与消费者教 育，实现从量到质的转变，推动品牌崛起与文化复兴。 2.酒类直播迎来新时代："直播间品牌"转向线下，中小直播间陆续退场？ 关键词 ： 直播电商,酒类销售,线上渠道,流量转化,头部效应 管理趋严，中小直播间生存压力增大，"旺季更旺、淡季更淡"的现象加剧了腰部以下直播间的 退出趋势。 3."苏超"这么火，酒业要跟上 关键词 ： 足球联赛,地域文化,消费场景,白酒市场,啤酒市场 行业环境 1.吴勇：中国葡萄酒，没有品牌的巨人 关键词 ： 葡萄酒产业,品牌建设,产区整合,文化价值,品质提升 概要 ： 酒类直播电商已进入成熟期，头部主播效应显著，市场格局趋于固化。非头部直播间 因流量转化率低而逐渐退出，而头部达播虽占据主要市场份额，但也面临增长瓶颈。平台扶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the liquor and restaurant chain markets has improved, with a focus on the performance of beer and beverages during the peak season [11] - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol in China reached 278.7 billion yuan from January to May, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, with May's sales at 48.2 billion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [2] - The white liquor index rose by 1.1% this week, indicating a marginal recovery in market sentiment [13] - The report suggests three investment themes: leading companies with proven risk resilience, those showing digital transformation benefits, and companies with market share growth potential [13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.02% this week but outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [19] - The top gainers in the food and beverage sector included Morning Light Biological (13.43%), Huangtai Liquor (11.41%), and Jinzhongzi Liquor (9.78%) [19] 1.1 White Liquor - The white liquor production from January to May totaled 1.597 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year, with May's production at 291,000 kiloliters, a 13.4% decline [2] - The report highlights the importance of adjusting policy execution methods to support normal consumption demands [2] - Key recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiangsu Yanghe [2][13] 1.2 Consumer Goods - The sentiment in the consumer goods sector has slightly improved, with a focus on the supply-demand dynamics [14] - The beer sector is expected to perform well during the peak season, with recommendations for stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [14] - The snack sector is experiencing differentiation, with a focus on companies that are innovating in products and channels [15] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks significant events and market movements, including the performance of various companies and their stock prices [19][68] - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices continue to face downward pressure, with Moutai's price at 1,935 yuan per bottle, down 55 yuan from the previous week [12][30] 2.1 Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance is closely monitored, with specific attention to the fluctuations in stock prices and market sentiment [19][20] 2.4 Important Events - The report lists significant corporate events, including stock pledges and management changes within key companies in the sector [68][69]

从资金流向看，股东增持股中，近5日主力资金净流入的有16只，净流入资金最多的是中国平安，合计 净流入资金1.55亿元；近5日净流出资金居前的有小商品城、五粮液等，净流出资金分别为2.85亿元、 0.67亿元。（数据宝） | 代码 | 简称 | 增持股东 | 增持次 | 合计增持量（万 | 增持金额（万 | 近5日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 数 | 数 | 股） | 元） | （%） | | 601816 | 京沪高 铁 | 1 | 1 | 122489.01 | 707986.49 | 0.52 | | 000858 | 五粮液 | 1 | 1 | 470.37 | 60631.57 | 0.37 | | 601318 | 中国平 安 | 1 | 1 | 749.60 | 40549.93 | 0.48 | | 601058 | 赛轮轮 胎 | 1 | 1 | 3282.15 | 40337.62 | 1.15 | | 000921 | 海信家 电 | 1 | 1 | 1164.84 | 30868.33 | -3.07 | ...

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 越陈越香的白酒，囤久了却卖不动。 作者丨 陈梓洁 严贝贝 编辑丨 曹宾玲 来源丨 表外表里 一阵开卷门的声音传来，百荣酒水商户芳芳低头看了眼手机，已经中午 11 点了。 她所在的批发市场，号称 "白酒界宇宙中心"，地位就像华强北之于手机、水贝之于黄金，业内任何 风吹草动，第一时间会传递到这里。 然而如今，偌大的商场仿佛生了锈的链条，商户开门营业的时间越来越晚，物流车停在门口，一整天 也装不满发车。 经销商海涛以前有个小仓库，现在退掉了，只做 "快进快出"的生意：从上级经销商那里直接寄给客 户，除了货款，搬运、换标等事情概不经手。 他连接单都不积极了，如果不是老客户找上门，很多时候海涛都不开张： "没利润，都是平价进平价 出，顺手做人情，但人家以为你还挣几块钱。" 跟酒打了近 20 年的交道，海涛也算小有见识，行业低迷至此，却是第一次碰上。 芳芳现在每天什么都不干，两眼一睁就要亏 3000 元。 上月中旬，观察到春节大批出货对酒价的影响趋于平稳，淡季走到尾声，她赶紧进了 100 多件红花 郎 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Eastroc Beverage, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Nongfu Spring, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine, and Wuliangye Yibin [30]. Core Insights - The ongoing impact of China's anti-extravagance regulations is significantly affecting spirits consumption, particularly in the sub-premium segment, with estimated sell-through declines of approximately 30% to 50% in June [7][8]. - The intensity of future policy implementation will be crucial, especially during peak seasons like Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which could lead to further disruptions in retail demand if regulations remain strict [8]. - Brand performance is diverging, with Moutai expected to withstand regulatory pressures better due to its brand power and stable distributor confidence, while Wuliangye and Laojiao are facing more significant challenges [10][16]. Summary by Category Spirits - June sales experienced a short-term demand shock due to heightened scrutiny on civil servants' consumption, with sub-premium spirits being the most affected [7]. - The expert estimates that government and commercial-related banquets account for 30%-40% of sub-premium spirits' demand, while Moutai relies more on gifting, which constitutes over 50% of its demand [7]. - Prepayment for Moutai and Wuliangye is tracking at 56% and 50% of full-year targets, respectively, while Laojiao and Fen Wine are lagging at around 45% and 50% [9]. Brand Performance - Moutai is expected to maintain its growth target due to its strong brand power and stable distributor confidence, with a critical wholesale price level around Rmb1,800 for profitability [10]. - Wuliangye has seen a decline in wholesale prices, returning to levels last seen in 4Q24, leading to hesitance among distributors regarding prepayments [16]. - Laojiao faces greater pressure with a projected 50% decline in sell-through in Hunan Province, indicating a challenging environment for the brand [16]. Beverages - Nongfu Spring's sell-through for Oriental Leaf and bottled water has shown growth of approximately 33% year-on-year, while Tea Pie has seen a decline [16]. - Eastroc is projected to achieve 20%-25% sales growth in 2025, indicating strong retail demand for its products [16].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本次告知书中，五粮液特别点名了近期在电商平台涌现的 "光瓶第八代五粮液"产品。公司郑重声明：从未向市场销售过此类产品，这些所谓的光瓶产品涉嫌假冒。 经调查发现，在多家电商平台上，这类"光瓶品鉴装"或"光瓶装无礼盒"产品以200-650元/瓶的价格销售，卖家多宣称"正品假一赔三"、"接受任何权威检测"。这与正品第八代五粮液官方售价 五粮液在告知书中揭露了不法商家的三类欺诈性营销话术：传统电商平台打着 "百亿补贴、折扣促销"；直播电商平台打着 "限量秒杀、今日闪购"；即时零售平台则打着 "限时折扣" 的旗号销 这些售假店铺往往与五粮液无任何经销关系。去年"双11"前夕，五粮液在《告知书（二）》中就曾披露，在对消费者线上购买的148瓶产品鉴定中，发现假冒产品18瓶，假货比例达12%。其中 打假行动维护消费者权益 自2024年11月12日发布第二份告知书以来，五粮液与各大电商平台联手开展了一场声势浩大的打假行动。数据显示，截至今年6月，已查实取缔售假店铺261家。 五粮液在告知书中表示，将持续加强免费鉴定服务，并呼吁消费者拨打 95195客服热 ...

Group 1 - Moutai has reached a consensus with Alibaba and JD.com to integrate into Moutai's channel ecosystem and oppose unfair competition, emphasizing the importance of brand operation and platform management [1] - The collaboration with leading e-commerce platforms aims to establish a healthy online market ecosystem for liquor, addressing issues like low-price diversion and counterfeit products [1] - This initiative by Moutai, as an industry leader, is expected to have a demonstration effect on the liquor market [1] Group 2 - Wuliangye has announced the election of its seventh board of directors, maintaining stability with key figures like Chairman Zeng Congqin and Vice Chairman Hua Tao continuing in their roles [2] - The new board's composition is expected to enhance market confidence due to its stability and the experience of its members [2] - The appointment of Hua Tao as General Manager and other key positions indicates a focus on maintaining operational continuity [2] Group 3 - Yanghe has launched a new product, the high-line light bottle liquor, aiming to establish it as a benchmark brand in the mass market [3] - The strategy reflects the evolving consumer demand and industry transformation, with Yanghe positioning itself to meet and lead these trends [3] - This move is likely to enhance Yanghe's competitiveness in the context of consumption upgrades and market focus on product innovation [3]