招商证券在其研报中指出，通过公司与渠道交流，25年双节旺季白酒动销下滑整体符合预期，头部品牌 下滑幅度略好于行业平均水平，飞天、普五等大单品价盘回落后性价比突出，行业集中度进一步提升。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）10月22日尾盘，沪指3913点下跌0.07%。白酒板块2295.12点收盘下 跌0.16% ，其中17只白酒股下跌，金徽酒1.87%领跌白酒股。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1458.70元/股，下跌0.24%；五粮液收盘价达120.10元/股，下跌0.35%； 山西汾酒收盘价达188.31元/股，下跌0.74%；泸州老窖收盘价134.67元/股，上涨0.34%；洋河股份收盘 价达69.72元/股，下跌0.33%。 ...

酒企密集点名直指非授权渠道 来源：环球网 在今年的"双11"预热阶段，五粮液的行动尤为引人注目。公司发布了第四封《致五粮液消费者的告知 书》，首次直接点名46家非官方授权店铺，涉及抖音、京东、快手、美团、拼多多、天猫淘宝六大平 台，其中不乏抖音超市、名优白酒京东严选旗舰店、天猫淘宝百亿补贴官方频道等知名渠道。 【环球网消费综合报道】"双11"大促一触即发，焦点已对准高端白酒领域。面对电商平台"飞天茅台补 贴价跌破1700元""普五跌破800元"的惊人低价，茅台、五粮液等头部酒企纷纷采取紧急行动，密集发布 消费提示，点名非授权店铺，试图在混乱的价格战中为品牌和渠道"划清界限"。 五粮液在声明中严正警告，从非授权渠道购买将面临产品真伪无法验证、品质难保障、售后缺失及维权 困难等多重风险。这已是五粮液自去年"双11"以来第四次发布类似告知书，其"打假"与维稳意图愈发坚 决。 于五粮液集团公告截图 贵州茅台也于日前发布"温馨提示"，公示了官方线上及线下销售渠道，强调认准官方渠道以保障权益。 国台酒业等品牌也跟进发布提示，一场由头部酒企引领的渠道规范行动正全面展开。 电商低价冲击，补贴价与正规渠道价差悬殊 酒企的焦虑源 ...

从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1460.37元/股，下跌0.13%；五粮液收盘价达120.08元/股，下跌0.37%；山西汾酒收盘价达188.89元/股，下跌0.44%；泸州老窖收盘价达134.05元/股， 招商证券在其研报中指出，Q3白酒动销层面有所改善，报表端有望加速出清。其中政商务需求依旧承压，宴席与大众消费市场相对平稳。后续来看，当业绩环比不再变差（二阶导转正）时将是股 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）10月22日早盘，三大指数集体下跌，沪指3899.05点上涨1.20%。白酒板块午盘2296.58点收盘下跌0.09%，其中16只白酒股下跌。 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业 2025 年三季报前瞻 推荐（维持） 白酒加速出清，大众逐渐改善 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 联系人：王培培 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 126 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 46,653.82 | 3.99 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Guangfa Securities predicts a significant decline in Wuliangye's third-quarter performance, with a projected 30% drop in revenue and a 45% drop in net profit compared to the previous year [2][4]. Group 1: Performance Predictions - Guangfa Securities forecasts that Wuliangye's revenue for Q3 2025 may decrease by 30% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to decline by 45% [4]. - The report indicates that Wuliangye's average price for its flagship product has fallen to approximately 820 yuan per bottle, down 100 yuan from the beginning of the year [4]. - Other brokerages, such as招商证券, have more moderate predictions, estimating an 8% decrease in revenue and a 13% decrease in profit for Wuliangye in Q3 2025 [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the white liquor industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, with many products seeing price declines since 2021 [6]. - Guangfa Securities notes that Wuliangye's high-end product ratio is increasing, which contrasts with the overall market trend where high-end liquor consumption is declining [7]. - The brokerage suggests that Wuliangye's management changes have allowed competitors like Luzhou Laojiao to narrow the gap in market performance [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Guangfa Securities anticipates that Wuliangye's net profit will continue to decline, projecting a drop to 23.65 billion yuan by 2026 [7]. - The report indicates that while Wuliangye faces challenges, other top liquor companies are expected to see profit growth in the same period [7].

导语：作为中国最早走出国门的民族品牌之一，五粮液持续以"和美"文化"走出去"之创新表达，既展 现其出海决心，也在国际舞台上贡献可持续发展的中国方案。 （图源：五粮液，下同） 当地时间 10月15日，五粮液同步主办了"和美·风土：酿造可持续的卓越"主题论坛与交流酒会。 活动以"和美"哲学对话"风土"文化，生动传递东方酿造智慧，并发布《和美风土》倡议，积极推 动东西方在可持续发展与卓越绩效领域的理念交融与互鉴。 获奖前夕，当地中海暮色初临， "和美全球行"西班牙站已于巴塞罗那维尔港正式启航。在一场别 开生面的海上游轮派对中，五粮液为全球质量专家及西班牙本地美食、艺术与意见领袖嘉宾打造 了"五粮液·巴塞罗那奇妙夜"，融汇东西方美学，以一场文化盛宴向世界展示了中国白酒的品质 高度、品牌魅力与文化深度。 实际上，作为中国最早走出国门的民族品牌之一，五粮液持续以 "和美"文化"走出去"之创新表 达，既展现其出海决心，也在国际舞台上贡献可持续发展的中国方案。 天人共酿的美酒典范 赓续 "和美"叙事，五粮液走进西班牙。 酒者，天之美禄也。天人共酿，道法自然。溯于先秦、始于唐、兴于宋、成于元、精于明、得名 于清，传承千余载的五 ...

"双11"大促来临之际，茅台、五粮液等多家白酒企业"喊话"消费者，要选择正规渠道购酒。 近日，宜宾五粮液股份有限公司（五粮液，000858.SZ）在五粮液集团官网发布《致五粮液消费者的告 知书（四）》（下称"告知书"）。这是自2024年11月以来，五粮液第四次发布致消费者告知书，同时， 五粮液还公布了最新电商销售授权渠道。在去年的"双11"，以及今年的"618"促销期间，五粮液也发布 了类似告知书。 而不同于前三次，此次五粮液直接点名46家非官方授权店铺，涉及六大平台，其中抖音有17家、京东4 家、快手9家、美团3家、拼多多8家、天猫淘宝5家。具体来看，包括抖音超市、名优白酒京东严选旗舰 店、美团名酒行、歪马送酒、1919 酒类直供、天猫淘宝百亿补贴官方频道等。根据声明，五粮液电商 销售授权渠道包括在多个电商平台的官方自营店铺，以及京东、天猫、抖音、快手等多个平台店铺。 不仅是五粮液，茅台日前也发布了消费提示，同时公示了贵州茅台酒线上和线下销售渠道。 那么，"双11"来临之际，头部酒企集中规范销售渠道，这一举动该如何看待？ 酒类分析师蔡学飞对智通财经记者表示，在目前行业整体承压情况下，头部酒企在"双11"前集 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major liquor companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, are urging consumers to purchase from official channels ahead of the "Double 11" shopping festival, highlighting concerns over unauthorized sales [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Wuliangye has issued its fourth consumer notice since November 2024, detailing authorized sales channels and naming 46 unauthorized stores across six major platforms [1] - The unauthorized stores include 17 on Douyin, 4 on JD.com, 9 on Kuaishou, 3 on Meituan, 8 on Pinduoduo, and 5 on Tmall/Taobao [1] - Moutai has also released consumer alerts and disclosed its online and offline sales channels [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The issuance of consumer notices by Wuliangye and Moutai reflects a broader industry effort to combat unauthorized sales and protect brand integrity during major shopping events [1] - The trend of issuing consumer alerts during promotional periods like "Double 11" and "618" indicates a proactive approach by liquor companies to safeguard their market position [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with foreign investors expressing optimism about China's market, particularly highlighting the potential for growth in the A-share index compared to other emerging markets like India [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - The A-share indices collectively rose on the 21st, with the Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming the 3900-point mark [1]. - UBS has maintained an "overweight" rating on China within emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improvements in capital return rates for the MSCI China Index [1][3]. - Since October, A-shares have shifted from a "technology growth" style to a "value dividend" style, influenced by factors such as renewed US-China trade tensions and profit-taking by investors [1][3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors have been actively targeting leading A-share stocks, with significant holdings in companies like Siyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, and Hongfa Technology, each having over 24% foreign ownership [2][6]. - As of the end of September, major foreign-favored stocks included Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and Wuliangye, with foreign institutional holdings reaching 85, 83, and 81 respectively [6]. - The banking sector remains a strong focus for foreign investors, with seven of the top ten A-share companies by foreign holdings being banks [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategic Focus - UBS believes that the A-share market will continue to perform well in the medium term, with growth styles likely to outperform value styles [9]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power to navigate uncertainties in the trade environment [10]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide investment opportunities, particularly in areas like "anti-involution" and service consumption, which may drive cyclical improvements in various industries [10][11].

近期，一份广发证券关于白酒2025年三季报业绩前瞻的研报在白酒圈激起千层浪。该份研报预测，白酒巨头五粮液三季度营收可能同比下滑30%、净利润同 比下滑45%。 值得关注的是，上述预测数据与申万、国信等多家头部券商的预测数据相去甚远。 那么，广发证券关于五粮液净利润的预测依据到底是什么？为什么会抛出"五粮液与泸州老窖'易位'"的观点？《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者对此展开了调查 分析。 广发证券预测：五粮液三季度净利润下滑45% 上周，广发证券发布《白酒持续调整，大众品表现分化——2025年三季报业绩前瞻》研报，对白酒上市公司三季度业绩进行了详细预测分析。总体来看，广 发证券认为，步入8月后，随着政策在执行层面的规范与完善，白酒需求环比有所改善，但同比仍承压。从经销商回款进度看，预计厂商博弈下，多数厂家 放松回款要求/不再强制性要求打款，部分头部酒企表现相对较优。 鉴于此，该券商预计2025年三季度白酒企业表端业绩将进一步向实际动销收敛。分价格带看，预计高端酒中，贵州茅台有望展现强韧性；次高端商务需求仍 弱，汾酒优势领先；地产酒龙头持续调整。 《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者注意到，广发证券这份白酒公司业绩预测数据整 ...