要点 港口库存显著下降，动力煤价格旺季持续上行。（1）本周秦皇岛港口动力煤平 仓价（5500 大卡周度平均值）环比+9 元/吨（+1.36%），已连续 6 周维持上行 态势；（2）本周秦皇岛港口煤炭库存 522 万吨，环比-10.77%，港口库存迅速 下降至同期正常水平（此前持续在同期最高水平或接近同期最高水平），显示出 当前煤炭供需阶段性呈现偏紧局面；（3）在"反内卷"、"查超产"的背景下， 煤炭供需格局有望持续优化，港口煤价有望延续上行态势。 本周港口煤价延续上涨，海外油、气价格反弹。（1）本周（7.28-8.1）秦皇岛 港口动力煤平仓价（5500 大卡周度平均值）为 658 元/吨，环比+9 元/吨 （+1.36%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800 大卡）周度平均值为 510 元/吨，环比+23 元/吨（+4.72%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤 FOB 价格 （5500 大卡周度平均值）为 67 美元/吨，环比+0.12%；（4）欧洲天然气期货 结算价（DUTCH TTF）为 34 欧元/兆瓦时，环比+4.26%；（5）布伦特原油期 货结算价为 69.67 美元/桶，环比+1.80%。 ...

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2025 年 08 月 03 日 8 月焦煤长协价上涨，第五轮焦炭提涨开启 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 8 月 1 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 663 元/吨， 周环比+1.5%，内蒙古、山西、陕西产地价大涨。截至 2025 年 8 月 1 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 547.4 万吨，环比-18.8 万吨，年 同比-2.6%。本周电厂日耗微涨，电厂库存微跌，秦港库存大跌，截至 8 月 1 日，动力煤库存指数为 192（-3.4）。非电方面，甲醇、尿素开 工率分别为 85.4%（+1.4pct）和 83.6%（+0.01pct），仍处于历史同期 偏高水平。 国内煤炭产能释放超预期，进口煤超预期，替代电源发电量超预期， 宏观经济不及预期 煤炭 强于大市（维持评级） 焦煤 截至 8 月 1 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1680 元/吨，周环比持平，山 西产地价小涨，河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 8 月 1 日，523 家样本 矿山精煤日均产量 77.7 万吨（-0.1 万吨），年同比+0.7%，532 家精煤 库存 248.3 万吨（-3 ...

（原标题：煤炭行业一周净流出资金25.02亿元，10股净流出资金超亿元） 沪指本周下跌0.94%，申万所属行业中，本周上涨的有6个，涨幅居前的行业为医药生物、通信，涨幅为2.95%、2.54%。跌幅居前的行业为煤炭、 有色金属，跌幅为4.67%、4.62%。煤炭行业位居本周跌幅榜首位。 资金面上看，两市主力资金本周合计净流出2118.64亿元，主力资金净流入的行业仅有1个，银行行业净流入资金43.27亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有30个，有色金属行业主力资金净流出规模居首，一周净流出资金259.90亿元，其次是计算机行业，净流出资金为204.46亿 元，净流出资金较多的还有电子、非银金融、电力设备等行业。 本周各行业资金流向 | 行业 | 一周涨跌幅 | 一周资金流向 | 行业 | 一周涨跌幅 | 一周资金流向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （%） | （亿元） | | （%） | （亿元） | | 银行 | -0.84 | 43.27 | 房地产 | -3.43 | -43.84 | | 综合 | -0.46 | -4.02 | 食品饮料 | -2. ...

金融界2025年8月1日消息，国家知识产权局信息显示，太原理工大学;山西焦煤能源集团股份有限公司 西山分公司申请一项名为"井下传感器固定装置"的专利，公开号CN120402173A，申请日期为2025年04 月。 专利摘要显示，本发明公开了一种井下传感器固定装置。所述固定装置包括壳体和装配组件，壳体上设 有安装孔，壳体通过安装孔悬挂在巷道壁上预设的挂钩上，壳体上具有位于安装孔处的锁紧部，通过锁 紧部对巷道壁上的挂钩的位于安装孔内的部分进行固定，壳体的底部具有开口，以使传感器的挂钩通过 开口插入壳体内，装配组件设在壳体内，装配组件包括沿壳体的第一方向间隔布置的两个第一夹持件， 两个第一夹持件用于共同夹紧传感器的挂钩，两个第一夹持件之间可拆卸地设有固定件，固定件用于限 制传感器的挂钩下落。 ...

Summary of Shanxi Coking Coal Conference Call Industry Overview - The coking coal price dropped to 1,100 RMB/ton in June 2025, with short-term rebounds driven by national policies, but long-term trends depend on the health of the industry chain, production capacity, steel demand, and Mongolian coal imports [2][3] - Current social inventory of coking coal is significantly lower than a decade ago, with on-site inventory only lasting 3-5 days, leading to upstream production cuts due to high inventory levels at the end of June [2][5] - The production cost of coking coal in Shanxi varies widely, with some mines costing 750-800 RMB/ton and others nearing 900-1,000 RMB/ton. The third quarter prices are below the cost line, causing losses for some companies, especially smaller mines [2][6] Key Points on Coking Coal Prices - Long-term price sustainability is contingent on the steel industry's ability to absorb costs, with current steel profits around 200 RMB/ton [9][10] - The recent rapid increase in coking coal prices is seen as a rebound from previous declines, occurring during a traditional off-season, which raises concerns about market stability [9][10] - Factors influencing future price movements include production capacity changes, downstream steel demand, export conditions, and Mongolian coal import volumes [3][9] Company Performance and Strategy - The company plans to increase production to 46 million tons in 2025, reflecting significant growth in the first half of the year [4][14] - Cost control measures include reducing management expenses by 10%, improving capital efficiency, and restructuring debt to maintain competitiveness amid falling coal prices [16] - The closure of Xishan Thermal Power is expected to positively impact profitability, as it had been operating at a loss [17] Production and Market Dynamics - Coal companies face a "prisoner's dilemma," making it difficult to reduce or halt production due to social responsibilities and high operational costs [7][8] - The production capacity in Shanxi is expected to remain stable at 1.3 billion tons for 2025, with no significant changes anticipated despite market fluctuations [13] Technological Advancements - The national push for mine automation is ongoing, focusing on unmanned operations and visual monitoring, although full automation remains impractical due to safety concerns [19] - Some mines are beginning to implement advanced technologies for remote operations, but this is limited to those with favorable geological conditions [20] Financial Outlook - The company anticipates a decrease in total dividends due to lower profit levels, but maintains a commitment to high dividend payouts, historically around 40% [22] - Future projects, such as an 8 million ton capacity expansion, are expected to generate long-term profits despite short-term financial pressures [21] Conclusion - The coking coal industry is currently experiencing volatility influenced by various market and policy factors, with companies like Shanxi Coking Coal adapting through strategic production and cost management initiatives. The interplay between steel demand and coal pricing will be crucial for future profitability and market stability [2][9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices for thermal coal and coking coal, indicating a favorable fundamental outlook [4][17] - The current price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 653 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.2% increase from the lowest price earlier this year [4][35] - The supply side remains constrained with a low operating rate of 81.3% among 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [4][25] - The demand for electricity coal is high due to the summer peak season, supporting price increases [4][25] - Coking coal prices have also surged, with the price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1680 CNY/ton, a 16.67% increase [4][26] Summary by Sections Investment Perspective - The coal market fundamentals are favorable, and it is time to position for growth as prices are expected to recover towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY [4][17] - The price of coking coal is more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with current prices indicating a recovery from previous lows [4][17] Market Performance - The coal index rose by 7.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.29 percentage points [28] - Major coal companies have shown significant price increases, with Lu'an Energy up by 31.22% and Jinko Coal up by 18.83% [28] Key Indicators - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.23, and the PB ratio is 1.26, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [29][32] - The port price for thermal coal has seen a slight increase, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price rising by 1.71% [35][38] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of coal mines is at a low level, which may lead to further price increases as supply tightens [4][25] - The demand for non-electric coal remains strong, with methanol production rates at historical highs [4][25] Investment Recommendations - Four main investment lines are suggested: 1. Cycle logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华 and 中煤能源 for dividend potential 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][18]

Group 1 - The coal sector experienced a decline of 1.71% as of July 28, with companies like Xining Special Steel, Ordos, and Zhengzhou Coal Electricity leading the losses [1][4] - Among the coal sector, 12 stocks saw price increases, with notable gains from Chuzhou Development (up 5.66%), Dongyangguang (up 5.51%), and Kairuide (up 3.05%) [1][4] - The PCB concept led the market with a gain of 4.33%, while the coal sector was among the worst performers [1] Group 2 - The coal sector faced a net outflow of 1.717 billion yuan, with 63 stocks experiencing net outflows, and five stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1][4] - Xining Special Steel had the highest net outflow of 299.16 million yuan, followed by Shanxi Coking Coal and Yongtai Energy with outflows of 177.90 million yuan and 147.92 million yuan, respectively [1][4] - On the other hand, stocks like Chuzhou Development, Dongyangguang, and Meili Ecology saw significant net inflows, with 94.02 million yuan, 93.55 million yuan, and 18.73 million yuan, respectively [1][4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12% on July 28, with 15 industries experiencing gains, led by defense and military industry at 1.86% and non-bank financials at 1.51% [1] - The coal industry saw the largest decline, dropping by 2.60%, followed by the steel industry at 1.41% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of main funds in the two markets was 18.575 billion yuan, with 8 industries seeing net inflows [1] - The electronics industry had the highest net inflow of 3.655 billion yuan, increasing by 1.10%, followed by the communications industry with a net inflow of 2.848 billion yuan and a daily increase of 1.24% [1] - A total of 23 industries experienced net outflows, with the computer industry leading at a net outflow of 6.892 billion yuan, followed by the non-ferrous metals industry at 3.254 billion yuan [1] Coal Industry Specifics - The coal industry experienced a decline of 2.60% with a net outflow of 1.046 billion yuan, affecting all 37 stocks in the sector [2] - The top three stocks with the largest net outflows were Shanxi Coking Coal at 177.90 million yuan, Yongtai Energy at 147.91 million yuan, and Lu'an Environmental Energy at 109.55 million yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Huaihe Energy at 8.5515 million yuan, followed by Panjiang Coal and New Dazhou A at 8.0408 million yuan and 5.6844 million yuan respectively [2][3]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96% on July 28 [6][7] - A total of 2,781 stocks rose, while 2,438 stocks fell, with 62 stocks hitting the daily limit up [8][9] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures saw a collective decline, with coking coal, glass, coke, soda ash, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate futures hitting the limit down [4] - Coking coal prices fell by 11% to 1,100.5 yuan/ton, while glass and soda ash dropped by 9% and 8.04% respectively [4] - The market sentiment weakened following new trading limits introduced by exchanges, leading to a significant withdrawal of long positions in coking coal [5] Policy Impact - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission issued measures to expand AI applications, including a 600 million yuan subsidy for computing power and a maximum 30% rent subsidy for AI computing resources [10] - This policy is expected to support companies in the AI sector, leading to a surge in related stocks such as Dazhu CNC and Chip Microelectronics, which hit the daily limit up [10] Pharmaceutical Sector - Innovative drug concept stocks were active, with companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Lian Huan Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit up [13] - Heng Rui Medicine announced a potential $12.5 billion licensing deal with GlaxoSmithKline, covering a clinical-stage respiratory drug and multiple candidates [13][14] Resource Sector - Resource stocks, particularly in coal and steel, experienced adjustments, with companies like Liu Steel and Shanxi Coking Coal seeing declines of over 5% [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rebound due to the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to lead to actual production cuts and improve coal prices. The analysis is based on the mean reversion of return on equity (ROE) and the reasonable profit distribution levels of thermal coal and coking coal within their respective industrial chains [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed significant increases in coal commodities and equity prices. The report highlights the importance of understanding the future space for coal under this policy, particularly following the State Energy Administration's notice regarding coal mine production inspections [6][18] ROE Perspective - The report calculates the expected central price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on historical average ROE. The central price for thermal coal is estimated at 749 CNY/ton, which is 96 CNY/ton higher than the price of 653 CNY/ton on July 25, 2025 (+14.7%). For coking coal, the central price is estimated at 1838 CNY/ton, which is 158 CNY/ton higher than the July 25 price of 1680 CNY/ton (+9.4%) [6][34][35] Industry Chain Perspective - The report assesses the reasonable price levels for thermal coal and coking coal based on profit distribution in the coal-electricity and coal-steel industrial chains. It estimates that the reasonable price for thermal coal could be between 776 CNY/ton and 835 CNY/ton, reflecting potential increases of 18.9% and 27.9% respectively from current prices. For coking coal, the reasonable price could range from 1707 CNY/ton to 2094 CNY/ton, with corresponding increases of 1.6% to 24.7% [7][44][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that there is still room for price-to-book (PB) mean reversion, indicating a favorable investment ratio for coal stocks. It recommends focusing on short-term rebounds and long-term reversal opportunities in the coal sector. Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Elastic stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy (A+H), China Shenhua (A+H), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical 3. Transition growth stocks: Electric Power Investment Energy and New Energy [8][50][52]