证券研究报告 黑金破晓，焦煤崛起 ——焦煤行业研究深度报告 行业评级：看好 2026年1月27日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 投资建议：焦煤作为战略资源，其地位源于稀缺性与不可替代性。美国能源部将炼钢用冶金煤（炼焦煤）列入关键材料清单，体现了焦煤的全 球价值。2024年以来，受蒙煤进口增量、国内钢铁需求下行等因素影响，焦煤价格持续下行，焦煤企业面临经营压力。随着焦煤供应刚性和需 求抬升，焦煤价值有望重塑。展望"十五五"，全球焦煤供弱需强，供需格局逆转，产量下降，需求向上，价格有望抬升，叠加成本下行，预 计业绩显著改善；焦煤产能刚性，若价格上涨供给难增，价格弹性较大。根据我们年度策略报告的观点，动力煤价格中枢800-850元/吨，考虑 焦煤供需格局逆转，焦煤/动力煤比价提高到约2.5倍，焦煤价格中枢提高到约2000元/吨，价格区间1500-2500元/吨。维持行业"看好"评级。 建议关注有增量和吨煤市值低的焦煤企业平煤股份、恒源煤电、山西焦煤、冀中能源、潞安环能、淮北矿业等。 1、全球焦煤供给收缩，重点 ...

由 山 西 省 纪 委 监 委 宣 传 部 与 山 西 广 播 电 视 台 联 合 摄 制 的 三 集 电 视 专 题 片 《 护 航》，播出第一集《利剑促发展》，重点报道了山西焦煤集团系列腐败案件。 "害了家人，害了亲属，害了下属，害了一大堆人……" 1月26日晚，由山西省纪委监委宣传部与山西广播电视台联合摄制的三集电视专 题片《护航》，播出第一集《利剑促发展》，重点报道了山西焦煤集团系列腐败 案件。 该集团原党委书记、董事长武华太出镜，交代自己蜕变国企巨蠹的过程。该片首 次披露，其敛财数千万元，于20 2 6年1月被判刑1 5年。 武华太出生于1 9 5 9年，山西平遥人，长期与煤打交道，2 0 1 4年1月任山西焦煤集 团董事长、党委书记，2 0 1 9年卸任。 2 0 2 4年5月，武华太（正厅级）被查，同年11月被开除党籍，2 0 2 5年3月因涉嫌 受贿罪、国有公司人员滥用职权罪，被提起公诉。 据《利剑促发展》报道，2 0 0 6年6月，刚刚上任华晋焦煤集团董事长不久的武华 太，接待了前来拜访的浙江老板欧某。后者将一个装有3 0万现金的手提纸袋直接 放下，便匆匆离去。 来源：长安街知事微信公众号 ...

Group 1 - The article focuses on the corruption cases within Shanxi Coking Coal Group, highlighting the downfall of its former chairman, Wu Huatai, who was sentenced to 15 years in prison for embezzling millions of yuan [1][3]. - Wu Huatai, who served as chairman from January 2014 to 2019, was investigated in May 2024 and expelled from the Party in November of the same year due to charges of bribery and abuse of power [3]. - The documentary "Sword to Promote Development" reveals Wu's initial acceptance of a bribe of 300,000 yuan shortly after taking office, which led to a pattern of accepting bribes from various business owners totaling several million yuan [4][6]. Group 2 - Wu Huatai's corrupt practices included accepting cash, gold, and artworks from 21 different business owners, indicating a widespread issue of corruption within the company [6][8]. - The documentary also discusses the negative influence Wu had on other officials within Shanxi Coking Coal, leading to a culture of corruption that affected multiple levels of the organization [8]. - Wu expressed deep regret for his actions, acknowledging the harm caused to his family, subordinates, and the broader community, emphasizing the irreversible nature of his decisions [1][8].

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the corruption cases involving Shanxi Coal Group, particularly the confession of former chairman Wu Huatai, who admitted to accepting bribes amounting to several million yuan and was sentenced to 15 years in prison in January 2026 [1][3]. - Wu Huatai, who served as chairman and party secretary of Shanxi Coal Group from January 2014 to 2019, was investigated in May 2024 and expelled from the party in November of the same year [3]. - The documentary "Sword to Promote Development" reveals Wu's initial encounter with a businessman, where he received 300,000 yuan in cash, marking the beginning of his corrupt practices [3][5]. Group 2 - Wu Huatai's corrupt activities escalated over time, leading him to accept bribes from 21 different business owners, totaling several million yuan in cash, gold, and artworks [5][7]. - His actions negatively influenced a number of other officials within Shanxi Coal Group, contributing to a broader culture of corruption [7]. - Wu expressed deep regret for his actions, acknowledging the harm caused to his family, subordinates, and others, stating that there is no remedy for his regrets [7].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to see a recovery in performance in Q4 2025, driven by rising coal prices and a favorable supply-demand balance, with potential for a spring rally in Q1 2026 [1][7]. Price Trends - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 672 CNY/ton in Q3 2025 to 765 CNY/ton in Q4 2025, marking a 13.8% increase [3]. - In Q4 2025, the price fluctuated significantly, peaking at 834 CNY/ton before dropping to a low of 670 CNY/ton, yet still achieving a notable average increase [2]. Profitability Outlook - The profitability of coal companies is expected to improve, with thermal coal prices rising and coking coal prices also showing significant increases, particularly in long-term contracts [4]. - The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port rose to 1726 CNY/ton in Q4 2025, a 10.5% increase from Q3 [4]. Production Dynamics - The "overproduction check" policy has led to a mixed production performance among listed coal companies, with some reporting declines while others saw increases in output [5]. - Major coal producers like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy reported production decreases of 5.0% and 2.1% respectively, while Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal Energy reported increases of 3.6% and 1.0% [5]. Cost Management - Cost control remains a priority for coal companies, with strategies shifting from volume-driven to cost-focused approaches due to previous low coal prices [6]. - Despite a slight increase in costs expected in Q4 due to rising coal prices and year-end expense settlements, companies have managed to maintain a focus on cost efficiency [6]. Future Supply and Demand - The exit of certain coal supply capacities is anticipated to significantly improve the coal supply-demand balance, with a potential reduction of around 100 million tons if implemented nationwide [8]. - This policy aligns with previous market predictions and is expected to lead to a notable reduction in coal inventories, enhancing price elasticity in 2026 [8]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include stable large-cap thermal coal firms such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as high-elasticity coal firms like Yanzhou Coal Energy and Jin Coal Industry [9].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) reported a significant increase in financial expenses for the period from January to September 2025, primarily due to interest expenses related to the acquisition of mining rights [1] Financial Performance - Financial expenses increased by 76.88% year-on-year for the period mentioned [1] - The increase is attributed to the financing costs incurred from the acquisition of coal and associated bauxite exploration rights in the Xinxian area of Luliang City, Shanxi Province, which was won at a bid of 24.705 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The current phase is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][13] - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to persist, necessitating the planning and construction of high-quality production capacity to meet medium- to long-term energy coal demand [14] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividend yields, with a favorable investment outlook due to the tightening supply-demand balance and the potential for price increases [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - As of January 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 686 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1780 RMB/ton, up 30 RMB/ton week-on-week [33] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines is 89.6%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 89.33%, up 0.9 percentage points [5][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 33.70 thousand tons/day (+8.18%) and in coastal provinces by 23.90 thousand tons/day (+10.97%) [5][50] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a 1.44% increase in the coal sector index, outperforming the broader market [16] - The thermal coal segment saw a slight decline of 0.29%, while the coking coal segment increased by 3.84% [18] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [14] - Consider companies with significant price elasticity and cost advantages in the coal chemical sector for potential alpha opportunities [5][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are at a turning point, with both thermal coal and coking coal prices expected to rebound. The price of thermal coal is influenced by policies and is expected to go through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants [4][15] - The report highlights that the current thermal coal price is below the profit-sharing line of 750 CNY/ton, but it is expected to gradually recover to this reasonable price level. The demand for coal is increasing due to the heating season and industrial production ramping up [3][4] - Coking coal prices are more market-driven and are expected to fluctuate based on supply and demand fundamentals. The report provides target prices for coking coal based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise due to the dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand. The report outlines that the price recovery will be driven by the repair of long-term contracts and the need to reach a profit-sharing position for coal and power companies [4][15] - Coking coal prices are determined by market dynamics, with target prices provided based on the ratio to thermal coal prices [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, and 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华 and 中煤能源 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - As of January 24, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 685 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from the previous period. The report notes that the price has reached the estimated target range of 800-860 CNY/ton [3][21] - The report also mentions that the average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.05, and the PB ratio is 1.34, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [10][21]

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

Group 1 - The 12th Jin Xuan Award ceremony was held in Beijing, recognizing 20 gold award marketing cases, 6 annual awards, and 43 excellent marketing cases across various categories including creative works, public welfare and sustainable development, AIGC marketing, and brand IP marketing [2] - Notable winners include Volkswagen China and Toyota China for public welfare and sustainable development, Wuling for creative works, and Mercedes-Benz and SAIC Audi for cross-border marketing [2] - The award introduced a dual-track collection mechanism this year, combining committee nominations and enterprise applications, resulting in over 500 initial cases and 84 benchmark cases shortlisted after multiple rounds of screening [2] Group 2 - The Jin Xuan Award highlights the shift in marketing strategies in the automotive industry due to information overload and weakened traditional marketing effectiveness, emphasizing the need for "meaning reconstruction and value redefinition" [3] - The award ceremony featured the launch of the Xuanyuan Matrix, which consists of three main components: industry services, industry evaluation, and industry communication, aimed at creating a comprehensive support system for the automotive marketing sector [3] - The marketing focus is shifting towards three-dimensional values of "temperature, scale, and attitude," with an emphasis on AI technology and user experience throughout the entire vehicle usage process [3]