Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant increase today, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.61% [1][2] - The total market turnover was 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] Sector Performance - The infrastructure sector saw substantial gains, with engineering machinery, civil explosives, and cement stocks performing particularly well. Additionally, cyclical stocks strengthened across the board, with the coal sector experiencing significant increases [2] - In the coal sector, companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Haohua Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy reached their daily price limits [2] Coal Industry Insights - The coal industry is currently facing supply constraints due to various factors, leading to a rigid supply situation. There is a regional differentiation in supply, with production capacity increasingly concentrated in the western regions [2] - Investment institutions suggest focusing on four main lines for stock selection: companies with excellent resource endowments and stable operating performance; those benefiting from the price difference between market coal and long-term contract coal; companies with production expansion potential; and those with globally scarce resource attributes benefiting from long-term supply tightness [2] Liquor Sector Analysis - The liquor sector rebounded, with major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao all seeing price increases. Shanxi Fenjiu rose over 5% [3] - According to Zhongyin Securities, leading companies in the liquor industry are expected to gain market share due to their strong management capabilities and risk resistance, especially at the industry's cyclical bottom [3] - Guojin Securities recommends focusing on two types of stocks: high-end liquor with strong brand power and deep moats, and resilient regional leaders benefiting from robust consumer demand and upgrades in rural consumption [3] Technology Sector Outlook - The technology sector experienced a pullback, particularly in AI and Huawei-related stocks. Despite this, Huashan Securities indicates that the growth trend in technology stocks is not yet over, as not all warning indicators for a downturn are met [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance recently, with significant gains in the coal sector following a favorable policy announcement aimed at stabilizing coal supply [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 22, a favorable policy was announced, leading to a surge in the coal sector, with many stocks hitting the daily limit [3]. - The market experienced fluctuations but ultimately closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component by 0.84%, and the ChiNext by 0.61% [9]. - A total of 2,540 stocks rose, with 112 stocks hitting the daily limit, while 2,724 stocks declined [10][11]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly introduced "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate coal production, mandating that annual coal output does not exceed announced capacity and monthly output does not exceed 10% of the announced capacity [3]. - This policy is likened to previous supply-side reforms, which significantly influenced coal prices and market performance [7]. - Historical data shows that coal prices have dropped from a peak of 1,202 CNY/ton in 2021 to 658 CNY/ton, a decrease of 45.3% [7]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - Analysts from Zheshang Securities suggest that the "anti-involution" policy could reverse the coal industry's challenges, similar to past supply-side reforms that led to significant price recoveries [7]. - Long-term coal price improvements are anticipated if demand-side improvements follow, particularly with potential interest rate cuts and domestic stimulus [8]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to rise due to high steel mill profits, which are correlated with increased production and operational rates [8].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to rumors of a regulatory notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production checks, which has led to a surge in coal stock prices and futures contracts [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the rumors of the regulatory notice, several coal stocks, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Haohua Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy, reached their daily limit up [1][3]. - The main futures contracts for coking coal and coke also hit their daily limit, with coking coal futures reported at 1048.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a 7.98% increase [1][3]. Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - The rumored notice indicates that there will be checks on coal mines in eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, to address overproduction and ensure orderly coal supply [1][4]. - Current data shows a slight decrease in coal production, with a week-on-week decline of 2.65 million tons to 12.2788 million tons, and a utilization rate drop of 0.18% to 85.43% [4]. Group 3: Demand and Price Trends - High temperatures across the country have led to increased electricity demand, resulting in a notable reduction in port inventories and rising coal prices [5]. - The coking coal market is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints from adverse weather conditions and a recovery in downstream purchasing activity [5][6]. Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The China Coal Industry Association has emphasized the importance of digital transformation and safe, efficient coal mining practices in its 2024 report [5]. - There is an expectation that the price of thermal coal will rebound towards long-term contract prices, potentially exceeding 700 yuan/ton if favorable market conditions persist [6].

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rise, with all three major indices reaching new highs for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.61% [1][2] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 201.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2,500 stocks rising and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit for the second consecutive day [1] Sector Performance Hydropower and Infrastructure - The hydropower concept stocks were notably active, with companies like Wuxin Tunnel Equipment and Jikang Technology both hitting the daily limit of 30% increase. Other companies such as Poly United, China Power Construction, and Jiangnan Chemical also saw significant gains [4][5] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is six times the annual investment amount in Tibet. This project is expected to significantly boost infrastructure development in the western region and promote clean energy construction [4] Coal Sector - Coal stocks performed well, with Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Haohua Energy all hitting the daily limit. Other companies like Pingmei Shenma and China Coal Energy saw increases of over 9% [6][7] - The current thermal coal market is characterized by strong seasonal demand and a tightening supply structure, driven by high temperatures across the country, leading to a steady increase in prices [6] Steel Sector - The steel sector saw widespread gains, with companies like Fangda Special Steel and Xining Special Steel hitting the daily limit. Other companies such as Liugang and Bayi Steel also experienced significant increases [8][9] Alcohol and Beverage Sector - The liquor stocks showed a mixed performance, with Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu rising over 5%, while other brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Guizhou Moutai also saw gains [10] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector strengthened, with West Mining rising nearly 7% and other companies like Hunan Silver and Zhongjin Gold increasing over 3% [11] State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises saw a rally in the afternoon, with companies like China Energy Engineering and China Railway Construction hitting the daily limit [12][13] Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic equipment sector experienced a broad increase, with Yijing Photovoltaic hitting the daily limit and other companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co. rising over 5% [14] AI and Technology - The AI sector faced a downturn, with companies like Yuke Technology dropping over 7% and others like Zhongke Jin Cai and Guangyun Technology declining over 3% [15] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector remained sluggish, with companies like Gigabit and Sheng Tian Network dropping over 3% [16] Banking Sector - The banking sector underperformed, with Minsheng Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank both declining over 2% [17] Market Outlook - According to China International Capital Corporation, the recent strength in the A-share market is not driven by significant macroeconomic catalysts, but rather by changes in the funding landscape. Key changes include a restructuring of monetary order, an increase in the proportion of individual investors, and a relative attractiveness of the stock market amid rising household savings [18]

Market Overview - The market showed an overall upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a five-day winning streak and increased trading volume [1] - The coal sector experienced a sudden surge, with stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Shanmei International hitting the daily limit, driven by a notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production inspections [1][4] - Other sectors such as hydropower, civil explosives, engineering machinery, cement, and steel also saw significant gains, with leading companies like China Power Construction and China Energy Construction achieving consecutive gains [1] Stock Performance - A total of 2,540 stocks rose while 2,724 declined, with 114 stocks hitting the daily limit and 11 stocks hitting the lower limit [2] - High-profile stock Weiqi New Materials achieved a record of 10 consecutive daily limits, with a cumulative increase of over 519% [1] Fund Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in coal mining, liquor, battery, photovoltaic equipment, and energy metals sectors [3] - Conversely, there were capital outflows from IT services, automotive parts, software development, general equipment, and diversified finance sectors [3] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The National Energy Administration announced a crackdown on coal mines exceeding production capacity to stabilize coal supply and market order [4] - Shenzhen is expected to see reforms that will allow companies listed in Hong Kong to return to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [5] Market Outlook - China Galaxy expressed optimism about the market, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to maintain above 3,500 points, suggesting a potential upward trend [2][7] - Long-term expectations for the coal sector remain positive, with anticipated strong coal prices and a peak demand season approaching [8] - Huazhong Securities forecasted that the technology sector will continue to perform strongly, supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [9]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown strong performance, with a 1.80% increase, driven by significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tunnel Co. (600820) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The National State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) rose by 1.83%, marking a third consecutive increase [1] - Key stocks in the coal sector, including Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy, experienced a 10% limit up [1] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to strong demand and favorable pricing conditions [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Everbright Securities noted that the "anti-involution" expectations are strengthening, predicting a bullish trend for coal prices as the peak demand season approaches [1] - Guosen Securities highlighted the resilience of coal demand and the potential for price rebounds in the second half of the year, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - The coal sector demonstrated strong performance metrics in Q1 2025, including a low debt-to-asset ratio of 44.7%, a net profit margin of 12.7%, and a relatively high return on equity (ROE) [1] Group 3: Index Composition - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index comprises 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend state-owned enterprises [2] - The top five industries represented in the index are banking, coal, transportation, real estate, and media [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 15.81% of the total index weight, with significant contributions from companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the strong performance of the China Securities Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index and its associated ETF, indicating a favorable investment environment driven by high dividend yields and stable cash flows from leading companies like China Shenhua Energy [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 22, 2025, the Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index rose by 1.26%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Tunnel Co. and Shanxi Coal [2]. - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF (159307) has seen a recent price increase of 1.19%, marking its third consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.1 yuan [2]. - Over the past week, the ETF has accumulated a 0.37% increase, with a trading volume of 1.27% and a total transaction value of 13.39 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Growth - The Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF has reached a new scale of 1.052 billion yuan, the highest in nearly a year [3]. - In the last two weeks, the ETF's shares increased by 7 million, ranking second among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 1.0854 million yuan, with a total of 18.26 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days [3]. Group 3: Leverage and Returns - The ETF's latest financing buy-in amount reached 249.11 thousand yuan, with a financing balance of 1.65053 million yuan [5]. - The ETF's net value has increased by 18.24% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [5]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profit probability of 100%, with an average monthly return of 3.47% during rising months [5]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [6]. - The ETF has a tracking error of 0.069% over the past month, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [6]. Group 5: Index Composition - The China Securities Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index includes 100 stocks characterized by high liquidity, continuous dividends, high dividend yields, and low volatility [6]. - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 20.14% of the total index weight, including companies like Jizhong Energy and China Shenhua [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on July 21, with over 4,000 stocks rising and a trading volume increase of 133.8 billion yuan, leading to a new high for the Shanghai Composite Index this year [1] - Key sectors such as building materials, coal, and oil saw substantial gains, with Energy ETFs (159930) rising over 1% for three consecutive days, and Oil and Gas Resource ETFs (159309) also increasing over 1% for four consecutive days [1] Group 2: Coal and Oil Sector Performance - Major coal and oil stocks saw significant increases, with companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal rising over 3%, while Meijin Energy and China United Coalbed Methane increased over 2% [3] - The top ten components of the Energy ETF (159930) included major players like China Petroleum and China Shenhua, with respective trading volumes of 757 million yuan and 968 million yuan [4] - The top ten components of the Oil and Gas Resource ETF (159309) also featured significant players, with China Petroleum and China Petrochemical leading in trading volumes [4] Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - On July 18, government officials announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aimed at optimizing supply and eliminating outdated production capacity [5] - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized the need for coal companies to understand market changes and ensure compliance with long-term contracts to maintain market balance [5] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to resonate with the coal sector, potentially leading to valuation increases as the market stabilizes [6] Group 4: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain bullish due to seasonal demand, with supply constraints from safety regulations and stricter import controls [6] - In the medium to long term, coal prices are projected to gradually return to a "reasonable center," which would stabilize profitability for coal companies and reshape market perceptions of the coal sector [7] - The oil sector may face challenges related to overcapacity, necessitating a focus on controlling operating rates and project approvals [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal prices are expected to continue rising due to increased demand driven by high temperatures and a recovering supply from major production areas [2][59] - The report highlights that the focus should be on companies with stable performance and high return on equity (ROE), as well as those with attractive valuations and dividend yields [60] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - Thermal coal prices have rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal closing at 644 RMB/ton on July 18, an increase of 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][12] - Coking coal prices have also risen, with Shanxi coking coal reaching 1420 RMB/ton, up 110 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][32] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply of thermal coal is tightening, with June imports down 26% year-on-year [2][59] - Daily consumption of thermal coal has increased, with coastal provinces averaging 222.3 million tons per day, a week-on-week increase of 3.5 million tons [17][21] 3. Price Trends - The long-term contract price for thermal coal (Q5500) is reported at 666 RMB/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [3][12] - The coking coal price index is at 1111 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 42 RMB/ton, while the cost index is at 1286 RMB/ton, indicating a gap of 175 RMB/ton [37][38] 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a combination of companies including Shanxi Coal International, Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal, Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and others for investment [2][60] 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with specific stocks showing varied performance [54][60]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the negative impact from the mid-year report has been fully absorbed, and the fundamentals of the coal industry remain upward [1] - The coal sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.74% compared to a 1.09% increase in the index, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.83 percentage points [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.31 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 2.8% and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [2] - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventory by 4% week-on-week, while year-on-year inventory has increased by 19.8% [2] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector saw 6 stocks rise and 31 stocks fall during the week, with ST Dazhou showing the highest increase of 4.89% [2] - The average daily sales of thermal coal increased by 3.2% week-on-week, while coking coal sales rose by 1.9% [2] Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 663 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1420 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 8.4% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that social inventory continues to decline, and current demand remains promising, with domestic power plants showing a significant increase in daily coal consumption [6] - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that are experiencing turnaround potential, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [6]