煤炭 业 研 究 2026 年 01 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《煤价上行回归合理价格，坚定稳煤 价逻辑—行业周报》-2026.1.18 《重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻 辑依旧—行业周报》-2025.12.21 《煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依 旧—行业周报》-2025.12.14 煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳字是核心 ——行业周报 王高展（分析师） 程镱（分析师） wanggaozhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：煤价动态波动中寻求合理点位，稳字是核心 动力煤方面：动力煤价格微跌，截至 1 月 24 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 685 元/吨，环比下降 10 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以下，我们预计未来价 格将逐步修复 ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

当前，互联网时代信息过载严重，汽车行业深陷内卷泥沼，传统营销模式效果弱化。金轩奖评审团主席肖明超指出，如今中国消费者已迈入"品质精算时 代"，需求呈现"既要满足基础需求，又要收获全新体验；既要获得体感舒适，又要拥有情感愉悦"的多元叠加特征，这使得营销的核心命题转变为"意义再造 与价值重构"。 场景实验室创始人吴声提出，营销应聚焦"温度、刻度、态度"三维价值，其中"温度"绝非简单的全天候24小时关怀，而是基于AI技术平权与普惠的深层价 值；"刻度"并非意味着参数的极致堆砌，更多是被场景激活的瞬间，这种体验应渗透在用户用车的全过程。 值得关注的是，颁奖典礼上，主办方《汽车商业评论》杂志发布了轩辕矩阵全新架构。该矩阵由产业服务、产业评价、产业传播三大板块构成，包含6大媒 体、3大奖项、2大论坛、1所商学院、1个协会和1个智库，形成"产业服务+权威评价+全维传播"的三维闭环。其中，三大奖项覆盖整车、零部件、营销全领 域，产业服务板块通过特色课程、智库、论坛等培育行业人才，传播矩阵实现产业链全域覆盖，为汽车营销行业提供支撑。 具体来看，大众中国、丰田中国获得公益与可持续发展类金奖；五菱获创意作品类金奖；梅赛德斯-奔驰、 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in electricity generation in Shanxi Province, with a total generation of 440.58 billion kWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [1] - The breakdown of electricity generation by type shows that thermal power accounts for 80.5% of the total, with a generation of 354.58 billion kWh, down 3.6% year-on-year [1] - Renewable energy sources are showing growth, with wind power generation increasing by 13.8% to 55.58 billion kWh and solar power generation rising by 13.2% to 25.875 billion kWh [1] Electricity Generation Overview - In December 2025, Shanxi Province's electricity generation was 42.26 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3% [1] - The total electricity generation in Shanxi Province is primarily driven by thermal power, followed by wind and solar energy, indicating a shift towards renewable sources despite the overall decline [1] Industry Context - The report is part of a broader analysis by Zhiyan Consulting, which focuses on the energy sector in China from 2026 to 2032, assessing market trends and investment opportunities [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and is organized to ensure comparability with previous years, reflecting the evolving landscape of industrial enterprises in the region [2]

煤炭/ 煤炭开采 2026 年 01 月 23 日 版》分别 相关研究 #研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧了后 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 下半年煤价及行业利润边际改善, 某价筑底、盈利回升可期 煤炭行业 2025 年年报业绩前瞻 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 手 供给端, 2025 年国内原煤产量小幅增长, 但煤炭进口量下降。据统计局数据, 2025 年 ● 全国原煤产量为 48.32 亿吨，同比增长 1.2%，其中 10、11、12 月单月产量分别为 4.07、4.27、4.37 亿吨，同比增速分别为-2.3%、-0.5%、-1.0%。据海关总署数据, 2025 年累计进口煤 ...

沪指1月23日上涨0.33%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有23个，涨幅居前的行业为电力设备、有色金 属，涨幅分别为3.50%、2.73%。跌幅居前的行业为通信、银行，跌幅分别为1.52%、0.90%。煤炭行业 位居今日跌幅榜第三。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600403 | 大有能源 | -1.35 | 5.16 | -18922.81 | | 002128 | 电投能源 | 0.66 | 0.94 | -7525.51 | | 601088 | 中国神华 | -1.60 | 0.20 | -7208.27 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 0.22 | 1.58 | -2667.87 | | 600408 | 安泰集团 | -0.24 | 8.35 | -2657.50 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | -1.42 | 0.64 | -2621.84 | | 600397 | 江钨装备 | 5.03 | 5.56 | -1886.42 | | 600157 | ...

Group 1 - The UK automotive market is attracting attention from Chinese manufacturers due to the lack of domestic automakers targeting the mass market and the absence of tariffs on Asian electric vehicle imports [1][3] - The UK automotive market has not yet recovered to its pre-pandemic level of 2.5 million vehicles annually, and the entry of Chinese brands is expected to accelerate this recovery [1] - Chinese brands, led by SAIC's MG, doubled their market share in the UK to 10% last year, with BYD and Chery increasing their shares significantly in December [3][5] Group 2 - New entrants such as Geely, Changan, Xpeng, and Leap Motor have entered the UK market since 2023, with Geely's premium electric brand targeting the UK after entering 12 European markets [3] - BYD plans to introduce its high-end brand Tengshi, while Chery may launch its new energy brand Lepas in the UK [5] - The UK market is projected to see Chinese brands capture 20% of the market share by 2028, with plans to offer not only electric vehicles but also fuel and hybrid models [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - The coal mining sector increased by 1.28% compared to the previous trading day, with Dayou Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Dayou Energy (600403) closed at 7.34, up 10.04% with a trading volume of 764,600 shares and a transaction value of 539 million [1] - Zhengzhou Coal Power (600121) closed at 4.69, up 3.99% with a trading volume of 1,053,500 shares [1] - Yongtai Energy (600157) closed at 1.66, up 2.47% with a trading volume of 9,156,800 shares [1] - Other notable stocks include Jinkong Coal Industry (601001) at 14.51, up 2.40%, and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) at 6.94, up 2.36% [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 371 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 143 million [2] - Dayou Energy had a main fund net inflow of 176 million, representing 32.63% of its trading volume, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 112 million [3] - Yongtai Energy recorded a main fund net inflow of 141 million, with a retail net outflow of 64.86 million [3]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference to discuss the implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit and promote a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The Ministry of Finance will also hold a press conference to elaborate on the role of proactive fiscal policy in promoting high-quality economic and social development [1] Group 2 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one-year and five-year terms will be announced on January 20 [2] Group 3 - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to see their first increase of the year, with consumer fuel costs projected to rise slightly [3] - The current oil price adjustment pattern has been "zero increase, zero decrease, one suspension" since the beginning of the year [3] Group 4 - A total of 10.44 billion shares will be unlocked today, with a combined market value of 7.206 billion yuan [4] - Shanxi Coking Coal, Kexin New Materials, and Shenyu Co., Ltd. have the highest unlock volumes, with 1.037 billion shares, 3.3315 million shares, and 2.706 million shares respectively [4] - The highest unlock market value is from Shanxi Coking Coal at 7.03 billion yuan [4] Group 5 - Four companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with one company proposing a repurchase amount exceeding 100 million yuan [5] - The highest proposed repurchase amount is from Aotai Biology, not exceeding 200 million yuan [5] - Two companies have had their repurchase plans approved by shareholders, with the highest amounts being 600 million yuan and 5.6307 million yuan respectively [5] Group 6 - Five companies have announced progress on private placements, with the highest fundraising amount proposed by Huashi Technology at not exceeding 446 million yuan [6] - Changhua Chemical has completed its private placement with a total fundraising amount of 155 million yuan [6] Group 7 - Two A-shares will undergo equity registration today, with dividend distributions planned [7] - The highest dividend payouts are from Youfa Group and Huangshan Tourism, with 3.00 yuan and 0.70 yuan per 10 shares respectively [7]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On January 20, a total of 4 companies had their restricted shares unlocked, with a total unlock volume of 1.044 billion shares, amounting to a market value of 7.206 billion yuan based on the latest closing prices [1] Group 1: Unlock Volume and Market Value - The companies with the highest unlock volumes are Shanxi Coking Coal, Kesheng New Materials, and Shenyu Co., with unlock shares of 1.037 billion, 3.3315 million, and 2.706 million shares respectively [1] - In terms of unlock market value, Shanxi Coking Coal, Shenyu Co., and Kesheng New Materials lead with market values of 7.03 billion, 107 million, and 53.9039 million yuan respectively [1] Group 2: Unlock Ratio - The companies with the highest unlock ratios relative to their total share capital are Shanxi Coking Coal, Kesheng New Materials, and Shenyu Co., with unlock ratios of 18.26%, 3.87%, and 1.49% respectively [1]