（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 龙源电力（001289.SZ）10月22日在投资者互动平台表示，国家能源集团持有龙源电力的股比为 58.72%，均为A股；龙源电力的H股股份完全由公众股东持有。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问贵公司H股国家能源集团和龙源电力各占多少比 例？ ...

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power's wind power project in Ukraine is operating well, with a cumulative safe production of 1,418 days as of June 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - Longyuan Power responded to investor inquiries regarding its renewable energy investment projects in Ukraine [1] - The company indicated that it has not expanded its participation in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine [1] - For details on overseas project operations and construction, the company referred to its periodic reports disclosed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1]

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power has successfully implemented an offshore wind power comprehensive detection platform, which enhances operational efficiency and safety in offshore wind farms, significantly reducing operational costs and improving detection capabilities [1]. Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The offshore wind power comprehensive detection platform serves as a crucial infrastructure for safe and efficient operations in offshore wind power [1]. - The platform utilizes an innovative "unmanned surface vessel + underwater robot" model, equipped with high-precision detection devices and inertial navigation technology [1]. - It enables 360-degree "acoustic, optical, and electromagnetic integrated" scanning of submarine cables and foundation equipment, creating a three-dimensional model of the seabed terrain [1]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The platform has successfully reduced the time for locating cable faults from 22 days to 2-3 days, enhancing detection efficiency by over 10 times [1]. - The detection accuracy has reached ±0.1 meters, contributing to more effective monitoring and visibility of underwater equipment [1]. - The technology has been applied in various offshore wind projects, including those in Jiangsu Dafeng and Huan Gang, providing strong technical support for the development of offshore wind power in deeper waters [1].

Summary of Earnings Preview for China Utilities Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Utilities** sector, specifically highlighting the **Power, Renewables, and Power Grid** industries in the Asia Pacific region - The overall industry view is considered **Attractive** [4][6] Key Insights - **3Q25 Earnings Expectations**: - Continued margin recovery is anticipated for wind component and submarine cable players - Polysilicon earnings may see upside risks - Solar module producers are expected to maintain flat or show mild decline in losses quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [1][6] - **Coal Prices and Power Tariffs**: - A slight weakening in unit profit is expected due to a small rise in coal prices and a persistently soft power tariff [6][8] - **Sector Performance**: - Wind sector is expected to see a sector-wide gross profit (GP) margin recovery, primarily driven by submarine cables with a favorable product mix in 3Q25 - Wind Turbine Generator (WTG) Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) may experience a more muted recovery [6][8] Company-Specific Highlights - **CGN Power Co., Ltd (1816.HK)**: - On-grid power generation decreased by 3% year-over-year (YoY) in 3Q25 due to longer outage times - Estimated net profit of approximately **Rmb2.6 billion**, down 6% YoY [8][10] - **China Longyuan Power Group (0916.HK)**: - Forecasted net profit of **Rmb937 million** in 3Q25, down from **Rmb1,542 million** in 2Q25 - Net profit for 9M25 expected to be **Rmb4.5 billion**, down 22% YoY [8][10] - **Huaneng Power International Inc. (0902.HK)**: - Estimated net profit of **Rmb4.1 billion**, up approximately 38% YoY but down 5% QoQ - Unit fuel cost expected to decline by **Rmb0.036/kWh** (12% YoY) [8][10] - **Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co. Ltd. (600522.SS)**: - Forecasted net profit of **Rmb1.03 billion** for 3Q25, up 21.1% YoY and 9.6% QoQ [8][10] - **Goldwind (2208.HK)**: - Expected net profit of **Rmb953 million**, representing a 135.1% YoY increase [10][10] - **Tongwei Co. Ltd. (600438.SS)**: - Forecasted net loss of **Rmb2.2-2.4 billion** in 3Q25, with improvements in polysilicon business due to price rebounds [10][10] - **LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd. (601012.SS)**: - Expected loss of **Rmb1.0-1.3 billion** in 3Q25, with slight declines in wafer and module shipments [10][10] Additional Observations - **Polysilicon Players**: Potential earnings surprises are anticipated due to increases in shipments and average selling prices (ASP) in 3Q25 [6][8] - **Demand Outlook**: Weaker demand is expected in 4Q25 compared to 3Q25, particularly for solar products [6][8] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings preview for the China Utilities sector, highlighting both the overall industry outlook and specific company forecasts.

Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Power's stock experienced a slight decline of 0.39% on October 21, with a trading volume of 74.48 million yuan, indicating a low level of financing and margin trading activity [1] Financing and Margin Trading - On October 21, Longyuan Power had a financing buy-in amount of 3.70 million yuan and a financing repayment of 3.25 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of 0.45 million yuan [1] - As of October 21, the total margin trading balance for Longyuan Power was 48.80 million yuan, with the financing balance at 48.52 million yuan, accounting for 0.05% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10th percentile level over the past year [1] - In terms of short selling, Longyuan Power repaid 3,600 shares and sold 800 shares on October 21, with a selling amount of 14,200 yuan based on the closing price [1] - The short selling balance was 28.24 million yuan, which is below the 30th percentile level over the past year, indicating a low level of short selling activity [1] Company Overview - Longyuan Power Group Co., Ltd. was established on January 27, 1993, and listed on January 24, 2022, with its main business involving technical transformation, services, and production maintenance related to power systems and electrical equipment [2] - The company's revenue composition shows that 99.22% comes from power products, while other income accounts for 0.78% [2] - For the first half of 2025, Longyuan Power reported a revenue of 15.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.38 billion yuan, down 11.82% year-on-year [2] Dividend Distribution - Longyuan Power has cumulatively distributed dividends of 5.98 billion yuan since its A-share listing, with 4.75 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Longyuan Power had 41,000 shareholders, an increase of 1.18% from the previous period, with the average circulating shares per person remaining at zero [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several ETFs, with notable increases in holdings for various institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][9]. Core Views - The report highlights the adjustment of value-added tax policies for renewable energy, particularly wind and nuclear power, which is expected to support the profitability of these sectors [3][18][19]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing government support for renewable energy development, indicating a gradual stabilization in profitability for new energy generation [4][29]. - The report suggests that the decline in coal and electricity prices may allow thermal power companies to maintain reasonable profit levels [4][29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%, while the public utility index decreased by 0.69% and the environmental index dropped by 1.11% [1][15]. - Among the sub-sectors, thermal power decreased by 0.82%, hydropower increased by 1.69%, and new energy generation fell by 1.85% [1][15]. Important Events - The National Development and Reform Commission released a draft on renewable energy consumption targets, which includes both electricity and non-electric consumption minimum ratios [2][16]. - The government announced support for green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel projects, with funding covering up to 80% of project costs in certain regions [17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][29]. - The report also suggests focusing on stable dividend-paying hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power and gas companies with trade capabilities like Jiufeng Energy [4][29]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.49 and 2025E at 0.62 [9]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.76 and 2025E at 0.81 [9]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.43 and 2025E at 0.50 [9]. Environmental Sector Insights - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with improved free cash flow and lower risk preferences among investors [30]. - The domestic scientific instrument market presents significant opportunities for domestic replacements, with a market size exceeding $9 billion [30].

Group 1 - Longyuan Power's stock increased by 0.34% on October 20, with a trading volume of 96.19 million yuan [1] - The financing data for Longyuan Power on the same day showed a financing purchase amount of 3.41 million yuan and a financing repayment of 5.55 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 2.14 million yuan [1] - As of October 20, the total balance of margin trading for Longyuan Power was 48.40 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 0.05% of the circulating market value, indicating a low level compared to the past year [1] Group 2 - Longyuan Power Group Co., Ltd. was established on January 27, 1993, and listed on January 24, 2022, focusing on power system and electrical equipment technology transformation, service, and production maintenance [2] - The company's main business revenue composition is 99.22% from power products and 0.78% from other sources [2] - For the first half of 2025, Longyuan Power reported operating revenue of 15.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.38 billion yuan, down 11.82% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Longyuan Power has distributed a total of 5.98 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.75 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of Longyuan Power included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and several ETFs, with notable increases in holdings for some shareholders [3]

Core Insights - The public utility sector is experiencing fluctuations in electricity prices and coal prices, with a notable decrease in electricity procurement prices year-on-year and an increase in coal prices week-on-week [1][3] - The performance of Jintou Energy in Q3 2025 is highlighted, showing significant profit growth due to favorable conditions in the coal market and increased electricity demand during peak summer [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has introduced initiatives to boost electric vehicle charging infrastructure, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [2] Electricity and Coal Prices - In August 2025, the electricity procurement price decreased by 2% year-on-year but increased by 1.3% month-on-month [1][3] - As of October 17, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 748 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 39 RMB per ton [1][3] Electricity Consumption and Generation - Total electricity consumption from January to July 2025 reached 5.86 trillion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1][3] - Cumulative electricity generation during the same period was 5.47 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1][3] - Different energy sources showed varied performance: thermal power and hydropower decreased by 1.3% and 4.5% respectively, while nuclear, wind, and solar power increased by 10.8%, 10.4%, and 22.7% respectively [1][3] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on undervalued thermal power assets and the growth potential of electric vehicle charging infrastructure [4] - Recommendations include investing in companies like Jintou Energy, Jingneng Power, and Datang Power for thermal power opportunities [4] - The charging pile equipment sector is highlighted with companies such as Teruid and Shenghong as potential investment targets [4] - Renewable energy assets, particularly solar and charging infrastructure, are expected to see a revaluation due to market dynamics [4]

Summary of Conference Call on China Electric Utilities Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of VAT rebate cuts announced by the PRC's Ministry of Finance on the electric utilities sector, specifically focusing on wind and nuclear power industries [1][2]. Key Points on VAT Rebate Cuts - **VAT Rebate Cancellation**: - The 50% VAT rebate for onshore wind farms will be cancelled effective from November 1, 2025. Offshore wind power generation will see a similar cancellation starting January 1, 2028 [2]. - New nuclear units approved after October 31, 2025, will not be entitled to VAT rebates, while existing operational units will continue to receive rebates for a defined period [2]. Impact on Companies - **Longyuan Power Group**: - The VAT rebate cut is expected to reduce Longyuan's net profit by more than 5%, pending confirmation from the company [1][6]. - The company is currently assessing the financial impact of the VAT changes [3]. - **CGN Power**: - The VAT rebate cut will have a lesser impact on CGN Power as it primarily affects new nuclear units. The estimated reduction in net profit for new units is approximately Rmb20 million per annum in the 6th-10th years and Rmb50 million per annum in the 11th-15th years of operation [7]. - CGN Power's existing operational units will not be affected in the near term, specifically for the years 2025-2030 [7]. Financial Projections - **Valuation Models**: - CGN Power's target price is set at HK$2.60, based on a DCF model, with a WACC of 7.0% [8]. - Longyuan's target price is set at HK$7.00, also based on a DCF model, with a WACC of 7.6% [10]. - CNNP's target price is Rmb11.00, with a WACC of 6.7% [12]. Risks Identified - **Longyuan Power Group**: - Risks include unpredictable weather conditions affecting utilization rates, capacity additions, and potential tariff cuts [11]. - **CGN Power**: - Risks include lower-than-expected utilization, tariff reductions, and interest rate hikes [13]. Additional Insights - The VAT rebate changes are part of a broader policy affecting multiple industries, including financial leasing and coal bed methane extraction, indicating a significant shift in government policy towards renewable energy and its financial support [2]. - The conference call highlights the cautious outlook for both Longyuan (Neutral) and CGN Power (Sell) due to anticipated net profit cuts year-over-year in 2025 [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the implications of VAT rebate cuts on the electric utilities sector in China, particularly focusing on Longyuan and CGN Power.

Summary of Longyuan Power Conference Call Company Overview - Longyuan Power is a subsidiary of China Energy Group, focusing on wind power, with a wind power installed capacity ratio of 73% and solar power at 27% [2][5][9] - The company has maintained a long-term Return on Equity (ROE) of 8%-9% since 2011, but has faced pressure on electricity prices and competition from thermal power, leading to a decline in revenue per kilowatt-hour [2][5] Industry Context and Valuation - The renewable energy industry is experiencing favorable policies, with a notable increase in new installed capacity since July 2025 [3] - Longyuan Power's price-to-book (PB) ratio has fluctuated significantly, dropping from 2.34 in September 2021 to a historical low of 0.52 in February 2024, and currently recovering to 0.85 [3][7] - The company is expected to benefit from industry valuation recovery due to its first-mover advantage and competitive pricing post the implementation of Document 136 [3][7] Financial Performance - As of mid-2025, Longyuan Power's accounts receivable stood at 49.5 billion yuan, accounting for 56% of net assets, with annual state subsidies expected to be between 12-13 billion yuan [4][11] - The price of green certificates has rebounded to 5.7 yuan per certificate, a 23% year-on-year increase, with trading volumes for green certificates and green electricity rising by 100%-200% [4][13] Asset and Project Pipeline - Longyuan Power's current operational capacity includes 31.4 GW of wind power and 11.8 GW of solar power, with plans to add 5 GW of new capacity in 2025 [8][9] - Future growth is anticipated from the injection of 4 GW of green power projects from the parent group, upgrades of old equipment, and a strong pipeline of offshore wind and large-scale projects [2][8] Market Dynamics - The marketization of electricity pricing has led to wind power prices being higher than solar power prices, benefiting Longyuan Power as a major wind power competitor [10] - The company has a competitive edge due to its internal synergies and the alignment of its renewable energy projects with its thermal power operations [10] Future Profitability and Projections - Longyuan Power's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.43 billion yuan, 7.22 billion yuan, and 7.93 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 12%, and 10% respectively [14] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the overall trend for the company is positive, with expectations for gradual recovery in the green energy sector [14]