Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 43.49, corresponding to a 2025 PE of 19x, PS of 2.68x, and PEG of 1.53x [3][13]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 3.878 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 522 million, up 0.76%. However, in Q3 alone, revenue was RMB 1.249 billion, down 11.19% year-on-year, with net profit of RMB 149 million, down 8.29% [1][10]. - The gross profit margin remained stable, with slight decreases in expense ratios. For the first three quarters of 2024, the sales net profit margin and gross profit margin were 13.47% and 50.80%, respectively [2][11]. - The introduction of a policy to support the replacement of old products with new ones is expected to benefit leading home furnishing brands, including the company, as it aims to enhance consumer spending on home products [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 5.847 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in 2024, and further growth expected in subsequent years [5][6]. - Net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 814 million, RMB 916 million, and RMB 1.022 billion, with growth rates of 1.5%, 12.5%, and 11.6%, respectively [3][13]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve slightly from 50.3% in 2023 to 51.2% by 2026 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company achieved a stable revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with operating income of 3.878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 522 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.76% [5] - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost performance, benefiting leading home furnishing brands like the company [7] - The company is projected to have net profits of 814 million yuan, 916 million yuan, and 1.022 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.5%, 12.5%, and 11.6% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported operating income of 1.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.29% [5] - The overall gross margin remained stable, with a sales gross margin of 50.80% for the first three quarters of 2024, slightly up from the previous year [6] - The company’s sales expense ratio decreased to 25.20% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 5.579 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.134 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [9][12] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 50.3% in 2023 to 51.2% in 2026 [12] Valuation Metrics - The current closing price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.23 for 2024 and 16.21 for 2025, with a reasonable valuation range of 41.20 to 43.49 yuan based on a PE of 18-19 times for 2025 [8][11]

证券代码：001323 证券简称：慕思股份 公告编号：2024-078 慕思健康睡眠股份有限公司 关于公司为全资子公司提供担保的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 （一）本次担保的基本情况 为满足公司生产经营活动的需要，慕思健康睡眠股份有限公司（以下简称"慕 思股份"或"公司"）于 2024 年 11 月 11 日与平安银行股份有限公司东莞分行 （以下简称"平安银行"或"融资行"）签署了《综合授信额度合同》，由公司 向平安银行申请本金人民币 50,000 万元的综合授信额度（以下简称"本授信额 度"），授信期限自 2024 年 11 月 11 日至 2025 年 11 月 10 日。其中，公司将本 授信额度下的人民币 28,000 万元转授信给全资子公司东莞慕思寝具销售有限公 司（以下简称"慕思销售"）人民币 25,000 万元、东莞市艾慕寝室用品有限公司 （以下简称"东莞艾慕"）人民币 3,000 万元。同时，公司与平安银行签署了《最 高额保证担保合同》，为慕思销售、东莞艾慕在融资行获授的上述授信融资额度 承担连带保证责任 ...

编号：2024-005 证券代码：001323 证券简称：慕思股份 慕思健康睡眠股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|--------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 特定对象调研 | 分析师会议 | | | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | 动类别 | 现场参观 | | | | 其他 2024 | 年第三季度报告解读交流会 | | | | 博时基金、嘉实基金、景顺长城、南方基金、平安基金、融通基金、西部利得 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.249 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 149 million yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year. However, the non-recurring net profit increased by 17.1% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing a recovery driven by its "old-for-new" program, which is expected to boost performance in Q4 2024. The company launched the "Musi Renewal Season" in April 2024, offering high-cost performance new products and services [1] - The company has optimized its offline channels and achieved rapid growth in e-commerce, with over 5,700 offline stores established by the end of Q2 2024, covering major KA markets and advantageous locations [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 790 million, 860 million, and 950 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19X, 18X, and 16X [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.9%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 11.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 183 million yuan, showing a slight increase year-on-year [1] Key Financial Metrics - Revenue for 2022 was 5.813 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.3%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 5.587 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.1% [2] - The net profit for 2022 was 708 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 792 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [2] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 2.01 yuan, with projections of 1.98 yuan for 2024, 2.15 yuan for 2025, and 2.38 yuan for 2026 [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, particularly in the mattress segment, which is anticipated to see improved sales and profits in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - The company is actively implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, aiming for stable and quality growth [3][5]. - The financial forecast has been adjusted due to the current weak operating environment, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 revised to 8.1 billion, 9.1 billion, and 10.3 billion respectively [4][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, and a net profit of 150 million, down 8.3% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 3.88 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.9% year-on-year, while net profit was 520 million, up 0.8% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.9%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin improving to 11.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented a comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategy, leading to a significant decrease in sales expenses and an improvement in net profit margin [3][5]. - The report highlights the importance of precise investment and monthly reviews to drive growth and profitability [3][5]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading high-end mattress brand, with optimistic expectations for increased demand driven by the "old-for-new" initiative [4][6]. - The financial outlook for 2024-2026 indicates a gradual recovery, with projected revenue growth rates of 2.67%, 10.33%, and 11.88% respectively [10].

慕思股份（001323.SZ） 家居用品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 前三季度营收微增，关注 Q4 订单改善 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------|---------------------------|-------------|-------|------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | 评级： 买入（维持） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：郭美鑫 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,813 | 5,579 | 5,751 | 6,414 | 7,112 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -10% | -4% | 3% | 12% | 11% | | 执业证书编号： S0740520090002 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 709 | 8 ...

证券代码：001323 证券简称：慕思股份 公告编号：2024-077 慕思健康睡眠股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 慕思健康睡眠股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）公司于 2024 年 7 月 2 日 召开第二届董事会第七次会议和第二届监事会第五次会议，并于 2024 年 7 月 19 日召开 2024 年第一次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回 购公司股份方案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金通过深圳证券交易所交易系统 以集中竞价交易方式回购部分公司股份，本次回购股份将全部用于注销以减少注 册资本。本次回购股份的种类为公司发行的 A 股社会公众股份，回购资金总额 不低于人民币 12,000 万元（含），不超过人民币 24,000 万元（含），回购价格 不超过人民币 39 元/股（含）；按回购金额上限人民币 24,000 万元、回购价格上 限 39 元/股测算，回购股份数量约为 6,153,846 股，占公司目前总股本的 1.54%； 按回购金额下限人民币 12,000 万元、 ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.31 —慕思股份 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘佳昆 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38038184 | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880524040004 | | --- | |----------------------------| | | | 毛宇翔 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38038672 | | maoyuxiang029547@gtjas.com | | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 行业经营压力增大，公司通过门店升级、SKU 优化和品类改革积极应对，以旧换新 有望提振业绩。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 调整盈利预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.88 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, and the net profit was 150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% [1][2]. - The overall demand in the home furnishing industry has weakened, impacting retail revenue. The company is actively enhancing its revenue through provincial collaboration and live streaming at terminals, while also launching popular product bundles and incentivizing dealers to upgrade store formats to increase foot traffic and sales of high-end products [1][2]. - The company is continuously strengthening its e-commerce channel layout, maintaining growth on traditional platforms like Tmall and JD, while also focusing on new channels such as Douyin and Kuaishou. The e-commerce channel is expected to maintain high growth rates due to a low base, and the company plans to increase investment in e-commerce to improve conversion rates [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company's gross margin was 50.8%, unchanged year-on-year. The management expense ratio and sales expense ratio were 6.6% and 25.2%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a decrease of 1.0 percentage points, respectively. The net profit margin for the first nine months was 13.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is focused on the mid-to-high-end mattress market, aiming to build a high-end brand image. The gross margin and net profit margin are among the highest in the industry. The company is also extending its product categories and steadily advancing its channel layout, indicating significant growth potential in the future [2]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.09 yuan, 2.30 yuan, and 2.59 yuan, respectively. The closing price on October 29 was 38.12 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18X, 17X, and 15X for the respective years [2][3].