F. 证券 报喜鸟（002154.SZ） 2024 年 04 月 27 日 股价走势图 《2023 年多品牌顺利拓店，乐飞叶高 增且实现扭亏 —公司信息更新报告》 -2024.4.14 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | 吕明（分析师） | 周嘉乐（分析师） | 张霜凝（联系人） | | | zhoujiale@kysec.cn | zhangshuangning@kysec.cn | | | 证书编号： S0790522030002 | 证书编号： S0790122070037 | 分品牌看，主要品牌 2024Q1 收入均实现增长，预计报喜鸟、哈吉斯收入增长 0-5%，宝鸟增长 15-20%。（1）报喜鸟：预计加盟发货高单增长、电商下降 10-15%、 直营持平略降，流水方面，预计报喜鸟 1-2 月流水低单增长，3 月单位数下降。 （2）哈吉斯：预计加盟好于直营、电商下降 10-15%，流水方面，预计哈吉斯 1-2 月合计流水中单增长， ...

报喜鸟（002154.SZ） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4,313 | 5,254 | 6,110 | 6,920 | 7,509 | | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -3.1 | 21.8 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 股票信息 | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 459 | 698 | 816 | 951 | 1,061 | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -1.2 | 52.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [14][9]. Core Views - Short-term retail recovery is expected to improve stock prices, while long-term growth potential is validated, emphasizing opportunities for bottom-line positioning [9][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q4 and the entire year, with Q4 revenue at 1.59 billion and net profit at 143 million, reflecting year-on-year changes of 24.5% and 92% respectively [6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 365 million, with a payout ratio of 52% and a dividend yield of 4% [6][9]. Revenue Summary - Direct sales showed the best performance with a year-on-year growth of 45%, while group purchases benefited from good orders, growing by 11% [7]. - E-commerce revenue decreased by 5% due to discount control and reduced participation in online promotions, but the e-commerce gross margin improved by 1.8 percentage points to 69.5% [7][8]. - The company experienced a 20% year-on-year revenue increase for its main brand, benefiting from a low base and improved franchise deliveries [7]. Profit Summary - Q4 net profit margin increased by 3.1 percentage points, driven by improved gross margin and reduced impairment losses [8]. - The gross margin for Q4 rose by 4.7 percentage points to 64.9%, with the overall gross margin for the year increasing by 2 percentage points [8]. - The reduction in impairment losses was attributed to optimized inventory structure, with the proportion of inventory over three years old decreasing from 10% in 2022 to 7% in 2023 [8]. Outlook Summary - Short-term retail conditions are expected to improve, with the company projected to achieve net profits of 800 million, 910 million, and 1.04 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [9]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 9, and 8 for the same period, indicating a favorable valuation [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][22]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.25 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 700 million, up 52% year-on-year [5][12]. - The company focuses on a multi-brand strategy, emphasizing both mature and growth brands, and aims for high-quality, stable, and sustainable development [8][21]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 64.7%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.9%, up 2.8 percentage points [4]. - The revenue for Q4 2023 was 1.59 billion, a 24% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million, up 92% [5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 360 million, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 52% [19]. Brand Performance - The revenue breakdown by brand for 2023 shows significant growth: Baoxing 1.04 billion (+16%), Haji Si 1.76 billion (+24%), and Le Fei Ye 260 million (+41%) [2][4]. - The company is enhancing its brand image through various initiatives, including partnerships and digital marketing strategies [6][18]. Store Expansion - As of the end of 2023, the company operated 817 stores under the Baoxing brand, with a year-on-year increase of 13 stores [7]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 820 million, 950 million, and 1.1 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.65, and 0.75 yuan per share [12][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 22% and a profit increase of 52% for 2023, with total revenue, profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 5.25 billion, 700 million, and 600 million yuan respectively [1]. - The gross profit margin improved by 2.0 percentage points to 64.7% in 2023, while the net profit margin increased by 2.8 percentage points to 13.9% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, totaling approximately 360 million yuan, which represents about 50% of the net profit for 2023 [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a profit of 140 million yuan, up 92% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue from its main brands, including HAZZYS and the main brand Baoxini, showed strong growth, with HAZZYS revenue increasing by 24% to 1.76 billion yuan [1]. - The company’s direct sales revenue grew significantly by 44% to 2.09 billion yuan, while e-commerce sales remained stable with a 1% increase [1]. Growth Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2024, with projected revenue growth of 10% to 20% and profit growth of around 15% [1]. - The company plans to open new stores for its HAZZYS and Baoxini brands, which is anticipated to sustain the growth trend [1]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a strong outlook, with expected revenues of 8.06 billion, 9.21 billion, and 10.43 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026 [11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 ——23 年归母净利润历史新高，直营大增驱动现金流超预期 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2023 年 12 月 31 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 2.97 | | | | | 资产负债率 % | 36.64 | | 总股本 /流通 A 股（百万） | 1459/1177 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 相关研究 纺织服饰 2024 年 04 月 12 日 报喜鸟 (002154) | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 04 月 12 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 6.08 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 6.99/5 | | 市净率 | 2.1 | | 息率（分红/股价） | | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | ...

⚫ 根据年报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2026 年盈利预测，预计公司 2024-2026 年每股 收益分别为 0.56、0.66 和 0.77 元（原 2024-2025 年 为 0.57 和 0.69 元），参考可比 公司，给予 2024 年 14 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 7.84 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：品牌拓展和新开店不及预期、行业竞争加剧、终端消费需求减弱等。 ⚫ 公司发布 2023 年报，实现营业收入 52.5 亿，同比增长 21.8%，实现归母净利润 6.98 亿，同比增长 52.1%，其中 23Q4 收入和归母净利润同比增长 24.5%和 92%。 公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 2.5 元（含税）。 ⚫ 多品牌协同发展，哈吉斯开店提速。分品牌来看，2023 年报喜鸟、哈吉斯和宝鸟的 收入分别同比增长 17.2%、24.1%和 15.9%，其中报喜鸟和哈吉斯分别净开门店 13 和 40 家，同比增长 2%和 10%，对比 2022 年明显提速。新品牌方面，乐飞叶增速 最快，2023 年收入同比增长 40.5%，门店从 2023 年初的 66 家增长至 75 家，恺米 切＆TB 收入 ...

公司基本情况 总市值/流通市值（亿元）90 / 72 市盈率 12.81 买入|维持 研究所 哈吉斯加快扩店，控制终端折扣带动净利率提升 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2024 年 4 月 12 日 总股本/流通股本（亿股）14.59 / 11.77 资产负债率(%) 36.6% 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 报喜鸟(002154) ⚫ 事件点评 ⚫ 加速扩店+提升店效带动哈吉斯/报喜鸟快速增长。从主品牌看， 23 年哈吉斯实现收入 17.58 亿元，同增 24.12%；期末门店数量 457 个（其中直营门店/经销门店分别为 327/130 个），较去年同期净增 40 个（其中直营门店/经销门店分别净增 14/26 个），同比增长 10%； 单店产出为 384.7 万元，同增 13%，哈吉斯加大经销扩店，客流恢复 +大店模式带动单店产出增长。23 年报喜鸟实现收入 17.30 亿元，同 增 17.18%；期末门店数量 817 个（其中直营门店/经销门店分别为 232/585 个），较去年同期净增 13 个（其中直营门店/经销门店分别 净增 11/2 个），同比增长 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|------------------------|-------------------------------------------|----------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------------------------|---------------|------------|-------------------| | | [Table_Title] \n报喜鸟 (002154) | | | | [Table_industryInfo] | | [Table_Invest] \n评级： | ...

Financial Performance - The total assets of Baoxiniao Holding Co., Ltd. reached approximately CNY 7.06 billion at the end of 2023, representing a 17.77% increase compared to CNY 5.99 billion at the end of 2022[27]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders of the listed company were approximately CNY 4.34 billion at the end of 2023, an increase of 10.33% from CNY 3.93 billion at the end of 2022[27]. - The weighted average return on net assets was 16.96% for 2023, up from 11.22% in 2022[27]. - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was CNY 5,253,625,184.72, representing a 21.82% increase from CNY 4,312,763,563.85 in 2022[57]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was CNY 697,852,097.89, a 52.11% increase compared to CNY 458,774,115.04 in 2022[57]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 604,869,365.50, up 61.61% from CNY 374,267,876.51 in 2022[57]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached CNY 1,153,641,350.32, marking a significant increase of 123.87% from CNY 515,309,797.86 in 2022[57]. - Basic earnings per share for 2023 were CNY 0.48, a 54.84% increase from CNY 0.31 in 2022[57]. - The company reported a total comprehensive income of 321,865,019.00 yuan for the period[134]. - The company reported a comprehensive income total of 766,150,528.79 yuan for the year[144]. Business Operations - There were no changes in the company's main business since its listing[24]. - The company has not disclosed any major differences in financial indicators compared to previously published quarterly and semi-annual reports[14]. - The company has maintained its commitment to transparency and accuracy in financial reporting, as stated by its management[35]. - The company has established a multi-brand strategy, with the mature brand Baoxini achieving over 1 billion in revenue, marking it as the third brand to surpass this threshold[94]. - The company has developed a personalized custom clothing service, leveraging over 20 years of experience and a database of consumer measurements to meet individual fashion needs[94]. - The company has implemented a flat "brand + platform" operational structure to enhance management efficiency and collaboration among brands[94]. - The company has formed a comprehensive marketing network covering 32 provinces, with approximately 1,761 retail outlets across various channels[94]. - The company is recognized as a national model enterprise for intelligent manufacturing, leading the digital transformation in the apparel industry[94]. - The company primarily engages in the production and sales of clothing, shoes, and leather products, as well as industrial investment[173]. Market Expansion and Strategy - Future outlook includes potential market expansion and new product development strategies, although detailed projections were not specified[17]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence and enhancing product development strategies, although specific details on new products and technologies were not disclosed in the provided content[49]. - The company plans to continue expanding its online sales channels through platforms like Tmall, JD.com, and live streaming[137]. - The company’s marketing strategy includes strengthening collaborations with KOLs on social media for brand promotion[136]. - The company plans to enhance its brand image and market presence through various marketing strategies, including collaborations with celebrities and influencers[163][168]. Investments and Financial Activities - The company invested 3 million yuan to acquire a 14.9580% stake in a private equity fund focused on the integrated circuit sector, with the fund's duration until April 15, 2029[68]. - The company also invested 3 million yuan to acquire a 9.9967% stake in a private equity fund targeting the new materials industry, with the fund's duration until September 14, 2029[70]. - The cash inflow from investment activities decreased to ¥1,265,211,314.18 in 2023, down from ¥1,518,264,623.01 in 2022, resulting in a net cash flow from investment activities of -¥221,247,824.11[99]. - The company reported a total investment income of ¥115,563,794.17 in 2023, a decrease from ¥644,448,040.40 in 2022, indicating a shift in investment performance[124]. Shareholder and Equity Information - The company’s major shareholder structure has seen significant changes, with the current major shareholder holding 38.09% of the total shares[43]. - The total number of shares before the change was 1,459,333,729, with 25.81% being restricted shares and 74.19% being unrestricted shares[74]. - The number of restricted shares decreased by 94,255,224, resulting in a new total of 282,417,541 restricted shares, which is 19.35% of the total[74]. - The number of unrestricted shares increased by 94,255,224, leading to a new total of 1,176,916,188 unrestricted shares, which is 80.65% of the total[74]. - The total equity attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 1,459,333,720.00 yuan at the end of the reporting period[134]. - The total equity at the end of the year was 3,415,827,418.35 yuan, reflecting the company's financial stability[145]. Risks and Compliance - The company has outlined major risks and corresponding countermeasures in its report, emphasizing the importance of investor awareness[49]. - There were no discrepancies between net profit and net assets reported under international accounting standards and Chinese accounting standards during the reporting period[46]. - The financial statements are prepared in accordance with the accounting standards issued by the Ministry of Finance, reflecting the company's financial position and operating results as of December 31, 2023[200]. - The company’s financial reporting complies with the relevant regulations set forth by the China Securities Regulatory Commission[198]. Research and Development - R&D expenses increased to ¥58,037,031.15 in 2023 from ¥54,565,825.08 in 2022, indicating a focus on product innovation[124]. - The company has 25 utility model patents in the field of suits and has launched innovative products such as the "single-layer double-sided jacket" and "light formal sports suit"[105]. - The company is actively promoting a smart manufacturing project in Hefei, which aims to provide capacity support for the Baoniao business[106]. Store and Sales Performance - The company opened 123 new direct stores and closed 76 during the reporting period, resulting in a total of 793 direct stores[103]. - The average sales per direct store over the past 12 months was approximately ¥2.71 million, with a sales efficiency of ¥22,800 per square meter[103]. - The total number of stores increased from 1,684 in 2022 to 1,761 in 2023, representing a net increase of 77 stores or approximately 4.58%[140]. - The total operating area expanded from 24.98 million square meters in 2022 to 26.28 million square meters in 2023, an increase of 1.3 million square meters or about 5.2%[140]. - The company achieved operating revenue of 525,362.52 million yuan, an increase of 21.82% compared to the same period last year[160]. - The Hazzys brand generated operating revenue of 1.758 billion yuan, a growth of 24.12% year-on-year, with significant expansion in product lines and channels[163].