Goertek (002241 CH) Equity Research Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Goertek - **Industry**: Electronic Equipment & Instruments - **Market Cap**: CNY 122.69 billion (USD 17.25 billion) [8][18] Key Points Upgrade and Target Price - Goertek's rating has been upgraded from Reduce to Buy, with a new target price set at RMB 43.80, up from RMB 17.40, indicating a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current share price of RMB 35.14 [3][6][43]. Growth Drivers 1. **AI Glasses Market**: - The global AI glasses market is projected to grow significantly, reaching 5.5 million units by 2025, a 260% year-over-year increase, driven by new product launches from Meta and Xiaomi [3][22]. - Goertek is positioned as a key ODM for major brands, contributing to its growth in the smart hardware sector [22]. 2. **AirPods Market Share Recovery**: - Goertek is expected to recover its market share in AirPods production to 30% by 2025, up from below 30% in 2023-24, due to stronger-than-expected sales of AirPods Pro 3 and renewed partnerships with Apple [4][36]. 3. **New Business Opportunities**: - Goertek is exploring potential collaborations with OpenAI, which is entering the hardware market, potentially supplying components for smart speakers and other devices [5][25]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 100.95 billion in 2024 to CNY 135.17 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% [9][15]. - Net profit is projected to increase from CNY 2.67 billion in 2024 to CNY 5.49 billion by 2027, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 0.78 to RMB 1.58 over the same period [9][15]. Innovations and Acquisitions - Goertek showcased multiple optical waveguide solutions at the China International Optoelectronic Exposition (CIOE) 2025, enhancing its capabilities in AR/VR devices [23]. - The planned acquisition of Shanghai OminiLight aims to strengthen Goertek's position in micro-nano optical devices, crucial for AR and AI systems [24]. Market Position and Competitiveness - Goertek has established itself as a leading player in the AR/VR ODM market, with a market share of approximately 70% in global AI glasses ODM assembly [36]. - The company is also focusing on improving its gross profit margins through a better product mix, particularly with higher-margin AI glasses [38]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include uncertainty in AirPod orders, slower-than-expected growth in the AR/VR industry, and challenges in maintaining gross profit margins [49]. Conclusion - Goertek is positioned for significant growth driven by advancements in AI glasses, recovery in AirPods market share, and potential collaborations with emerging tech companies like OpenAI. The upgrade to Buy reflects confidence in the company's strategic direction and financial performance over the next few years [3][43].

Core Insights - The report from Guotou Securities highlights the shift in focus from broad applications to specific use cases in smart glasses, driven by technological advancements and cost constraints [1] - The smart glasses industry is entering a robust growth phase in 2023, following previous stages of technology validation, commercial trials, and product diversification [1] - AI glasses are emerging as a significant market segment, with Meta's Ray-Ban Meta leading the charge and expected to capture 98.68% of global AI glasses sales in 2024 [2] Smart Glasses Development - The development of smart glasses has gone through four phases: pre-2012 (technology validation), 2012-2016 (commercial trials), 2017-2022 (product diversification), and 2023 (robust growth) [1] - Smart glasses can be categorized based on optical display systems, with AI shooting glasses focusing on photography and voice interaction, VR glasses providing immersive experiences, and AR glasses overlaying virtual information on the real world [1] AI Glasses Market - AI glasses are characterized by the integration of cameras, Bluetooth controls, and voice interaction, sacrificing optical display for lightweight and low-cost designs [2] - The core logic of AI shooting glasses is to achieve portability and practicality for all-day wear, targeting markets previously dominated by action cameras [2] AR Glasses Insights - AR glasses utilize micro-displays and optical modules to project virtual images onto real-world scenes, categorized into viewing glasses and full-domain glasses [3] - Viewing glasses are lightweight and designed for portable viewing, while full-domain glasses are used for outdoor navigation and industrial applications, albeit at a higher price point [3] VR Glasses Overview - Traditional VR glasses focus on providing an immersive experience, primarily for gaming and viewing, with a market that is relatively mature [4] - The expected sales for traditional VR glasses in Q2 2025 is 1.26 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [4] Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The upstream sector focuses on chips, optical modules, and screens, with Micro OLED expected to become a primary solution for XR devices by 2030 [5] - In the midstream, Thunderbird Innovation holds a 50% market share in AI/AR glasses online sales, while PICO dominates the domestic VR market [5] - The downstream sector is supported by offline channels, with Doctor Glasses establishing over 100 smart display cabinets [5] Key Companies to Watch - Companies to monitor include Luxshare Precision and GoerTek in manufacturing, Sunny Optical Technology and OFILM in optics, and various firms in storage and display technologies [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a target price set at 1599 CNY for the preferred stock [5][6]. Core Insights - The smart glasses industry is experiencing a significant evolution driven by optical display technology and AI integration, marking a transition into a robust growth phase since 2023 [1][17]. - The market for AI glasses, particularly those that integrate camera and voice interaction without optical display modules, is rapidly expanding, with Meta's Ray-Ban Meta leading the charge [2][38]. - The report identifies four main categories of smart glasses: AI shooting glasses, AR viewing glasses, AR full-domain glasses, and VR glasses, each with distinct technological and application characteristics [26][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Optical Technology Driving Product Iteration - The development of smart glasses can be categorized into four stages: 1) Early exploration (before 2012) focused on technology validation 2) Commercial trial (2012-2016) saw initial product launches like Google Glass 3) Product diversification (2017-2022) led to a variety of offerings 4) Robust growth phase (2023-present) characterized by significant technological advancements and market expansion [1.1][1.1.1][1.1.2][1.1.3][1.1.4]. 2. AI Glasses: A New Wave of Competition - AI glasses, particularly those that prioritize lightweight and low-cost designs by omitting optical display modules, are gaining traction. The Ray-Ban Meta has become a standout product, capturing a significant market share [2][38]. - The report notes that in 2024, Ray-Ban Meta is expected to account for 98.68% of global AI glasses sales, highlighting the competitive landscape dubbed the "Hundred Glasses War" [2][38]. 3. AR Glasses: The Ultimate Form of AI Glasses - AR glasses are categorized into AR viewing glasses and AR full-domain glasses, with the former focusing on portable viewing experiences and the latter on interactive applications like navigation and translation [3][30]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing technological iterations in AR glasses, particularly in display technologies such as Micro OLED and light guide systems, which are expected to enhance user experience [3.2][3.3]. 4. Traditional VR Glasses: Focus on Immersive Experience - Traditional VR glasses are designed for complete immersion, primarily targeting gaming and viewing experiences. The report notes that the market for VR glasses is relatively mature, with key players like Meta and PICO driving innovation [4][4.3]. 5. Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The upstream segment focuses on core components like chips and optical modules, with Micro OLED expected to become a primary solution for XR devices. The report forecasts that global Micro OLED shipments will reach approximately 399.57 million units by 2030 [10][10.1]. - The midstream market is dominated by companies like 雷鸟创新 and PICO, while the downstream segment is crucial for the practical deployment of smart glasses [10.2][10.3]. 6. Key Investment Targets - The report suggests monitoring key players in various segments, including manufacturing (立讯精密, 歌尔股份), optical technology (舜宇光学科技, 蓝特光学), and storage chips (佰维存储) [11][11.1].

Core Viewpoint - The company Puno Wei has successfully entered the supply chains of major clients such as Huawei HiSilicon, Luxshare Precision, and GoerTek, with its advanced packaging substrate products being utilized in various terminal devices including smartphones, smartwatches, and 5G base stations [1] Group 1: Client Expansion - Puno Wei's advanced packaging substrate products are now applied in terminal devices like smartphones, smartwatches, and 5G base stations [1] - The company has begun mass supply of 25/25 micron IC substrates for AI servers to Huawei HiSilicon, which is expected to become a significant revenue source in 2025 [1] Group 2: Collaboration with Other Companies - The collaboration between Puno Wei and GoerTek, as well as Luxshare Precision, is deepening, with Puno Wei supplying MEMS substrates primarily for smartphones, TWS earphones, and wearable devices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of GoerTek Inc. has shown significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 36.31% and a recent decline in the last 20 days by 4.74% [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, GoerTek achieved a revenue of 37.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.417 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.65% [2] - Cumulatively, GoerTek has distributed 4.955 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.706 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Market Activity - As of September 26, GoerTek's stock price was 34.98 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 122.449 billion yuan [1] - The stock has been active on the trading board, with a net buy of 389 million yuan on August 26, and total buy and sell amounts of 1.514 billion yuan and 1.125 billion yuan respectively [2] - The stock has seen a net outflow of 43.1468 million yuan in principal funds recently, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, GoerTek had 345,800 shareholders, a decrease of 3.27% from the previous period, with an average of 8,919 circulating shares per person, an increase of 3.38% [2] - The second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 106 million shares, a decrease of 2.04173 million shares from the previous period [3]

HSBC将歌尔股份评级上调至买进，目标价43.80元人民币。 ...

Core Insights - The global smart glasses market is experiencing a significant surge, with shipments expected to increase by 110% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and AI-enabled smart glasses accounting for 78% of this growth [1][4] - Major companies in the AR and AI glasses sector, including Guangfeng Technology, Liyade, and BOE, are launching innovative products and solutions that address industry pain points and enhance user experience [1][2] Company Developments - Guangfeng Technology introduced a pioneering "LCoS + PVG optical solution" for AR glasses, which utilizes a single optical engine to drive dual displays, potentially disrupting the current pricing structure of AR glasses [1] - Liyade has developed AR glasses that integrate Micro LED technology with AI capabilities, focusing on B2B applications in sectors like tourism and healthcare, and aims to provide customized solutions [1][2] - BOE's Huacan showcased a 0.13-inch Micro LED display module, emphasizing low power consumption and high brightness, alongside a 6.2-inch full-color HUD for automotive applications [1][2] - NewXiangwei is expanding its product matrix to include high-end display chips for AR glasses, with a focus on domestic and automotive applications [2] - Omnivision's LCoS microdisplay technology is being utilized in Meta's first AR glasses, indicating a strategic partnership in the XR technology space [2] - GoerTek announced a capital increase to enhance its micro-nano optical capabilities, strengthening its competitive position in the VR/AR market [2] - Jiahe Intelligent's acquisition of Beyerdynamic aims to enhance its AR/AI glasses business through synergies in audio technology [2] - Luxshare Precision showcased a new generation of full-color AR glasses and has initiated mass production of PVG polarized AR glasses designed for outdoor use [2] - Lens Technology is positioning itself as a core supplier for AI glasses, with significant involvement in the assembly and supply chain for major clients [2] - Crystal Optoelectronics reported a 79% revenue increase in automotive AR applications, highlighting its growth in the next-generation terminal market [2][3] Industry Trends - The AR optical technology landscape is dominated by reflective waveguides and surface relief gratings, with the former leading in efficiency but facing manufacturing challenges [3] - The industry is transitioning from conceptual exploration to mass production, with a notable increase in demand for AI glasses, particularly in the Chinese market [4]

Group 1 - The consumer electronics sector saw a slight increase of 0.1% on September 25, with Jiebang Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] - Notable gainers in the consumer electronics sector included Jiebang Technology, which rose by 15.95% to a closing price of 134.50, and Zhidong Technology, which increased by 12.67% to 16.10 [1] Group 2 - The consumer electronics sector experienced a net outflow of 3.123 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 3.2 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant net inflows from retail investors included Gaor Technology, which had a net inflow of 3.52 million yuan, and Xinya Electronics with 3.13 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like Longyang Electronics and Yingqu Technology faced notable net outflows from both institutional and retail investors, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.15%. Key sectors that performed well included comprehensive, communication equipment, and computer hardware, while gas and engineering machinery sectors faced declines [1] - The Consumer Electronics ETF (159732) rose by 0.50%, with notable increases in its constituent stocks: Jinghe Integrated surged by 13.29%, Huakin Technology by 10.00%, GoerTek by 5.57%, Desay SV by 4.63%, and Huanxu Electronics by 4.57% [1] - Meta held its annual developer conference, Meta Connect, where it launched the Meta Ray-Ban Display smart glasses in collaboration with Ray-Ban and introduced the Neural Band, a wristband controlled by myoelectric signals [1] Group 2 - According to Macquarie Securities, Meta is leading the acceleration of AI + AR glasses penetration, which is driving continuous upgrades in the supply chain. The release of the Meta Ray-Ban Display is expected to further enhance the penetration rate of AI + AR glasses and promote ongoing hardware supply chain upgrades [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goer Technology Co., Ltd. has seen a significant stock price increase of 5.66% on September 25, reaching a price of 36.77 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.45 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 128.71 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Goer Technology was established on June 25, 2001, and went public on May 22, 2008. The company is located in Weifang High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Shandong Province [1] - The company's main business segments include precision components, smart acoustic devices, and smart hardware, with revenue contributions of 54.17% from smart hardware, 22.17% from smart acoustic devices, 20.25% from precision components, and 3.41% from other sources [1] Shareholder Information - Huatai-PB Fund's Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) is among the top ten circulating shareholders of Goer Technology, having increased its holdings by 3.70 million shares in the second quarter, totaling 43.58 million shares, which represents 1.41% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating profit from this investment is approximately 85.86 million CNY [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF was established on May 4, 2012, with a current scale of 374.70 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 18.58%, ranking 2846 out of 4220 in its category, while the one-year return is 39.35%, ranking 2369 out of 3820 [2]