Company Overview - Jiu Li Special Materials Co., Ltd. is located in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, established on January 8, 2004, and listed on December 11, 2009. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of industrial stainless steel pipes and special alloy materials, including pipes, fittings, flanges, bars, and prefabricated components [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiu Li Special Materials achieved operating revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.39%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 828 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28.48% [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had a total of 20,600 shareholders, an increase of 16.03% compared to the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person was 46,427, which decreased by 13.80% [2]. Stock Performance - On August 29, Jiu Li Special Materials' stock price increased by 2.07%, reaching 22.67 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 167 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.78%. The total market capitalization stood at 22.152 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 0.90%, with a slight increase of 0.22% over the last five trading days, a 0.93% increase over the last 20 days, but a decline of 5.50% over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the second-largest shareholder, holding 44.6371 million shares, an increase of 1.8334 million shares from the previous period. The eighth-largest shareholder, Fu Guo Xing Yuan Preferred 12-Month Holding Period Mixed A, maintained its holding of 15.2453 million shares, while the ninth-largest shareholder, Guangfa Steady Growth Mixed A, reduced its holdings by 800,000 shares to 12.5 million shares [3]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Jiu Li Special Materials has distributed a total of 3.468 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.802 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Industry Classification - Jiu Li Special Materials is classified under the steel industry, specifically in the special steel sector, and is involved in various concept sectors including special steel, oil and gas pipelines, ultra-supercritical power generation, natural gas, and nuclear power [1].

Core Insights - The report highlights the updated monthly interest rate timing model, which shows improved predictive accuracy with a success rate of 74% for the recent two years [12][14] - The company Atour (ATAT.O) has raised its full-year retail revenue guidance, with Q2 revenue growing by 37.4% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan, exceeding expectations [15][17] - Shenzhen International (00152.HK) reported a revenue of 6.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with a focus on logistics park transformation projects [18][16] Group 1: Interest Rate Timing Strategy - The updated model incorporates richer factor indicators and adjusts weightings for different types of indicators, enhancing predictive capabilities [14] - Three strategy applications have been designed: basic timing strategy, timing & treasury futures strategy, and timing & leverage strategy, all outperforming longer-duration benchmarks [14] - The timing & leverage strategy achieved a maximum annualized excess return of 128 basis points [14] Group 2: Atour (ATAT.O) Performance - Atour's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit increase of 39.8% year-on-year to 425 million yuan [15][17] - The company opened 118 new hotels in Q2, maintaining its target of 500 new openings for the year [15][17] - Retail business GMV reached 1.144 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year growth of 84.6%, with online sales accounting for over 90% [15][17] Group 3: Shenzhen International (00152.HK) Insights - The company’s logistics park transformation and asset securitization strategies are expected to enhance earnings resilience [18][16] - For 2025-2027, net profit forecasts are 3.081 billion, 3.430 billion, and 3.925 billion HKD, with a dividend yield projected at 8.3%, 9.3%, and 10.6% respectively [18][16] - The logistics park business reported a revenue of 785 million HKD in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [18][16] Group 4: Steel Industry Performance - Baosteel (600019) reported steady growth with high dividend maintenance, while Hualing Steel (000932) saw a significant increase in high-end product sales [20][24] - The steel industry is experiencing a shift towards high-end products, with companies like Zhongxin Special Steel (000708) maintaining stable performance [26] - The overall steel market is expected to benefit from reduced raw material costs and improved product structures, leading to enhanced profitability [24][26]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3812.43 points, above the annual line, with a change of 0.32% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares is 1,230.98 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - 23 A-shares have broken above the annual line today, with notable stocks including Chuangyi Information, Zhongfu Information, and Qifeng New Materials, showing divergence rates of 11.29%, 5.02%, and 3.05% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller divergence rates that have just crossed the annual line include Guizhou Tire, Andisoo, and Haier Smart Home [1] Top Stocks by Divergence Rate - Chuangyi Information (300366) has a daily increase of 13.27% and a divergence rate of 11.29% [1] - Zhongfu Information (300659) has a daily increase of 6.91% and a divergence rate of 5.02% [1] - Qifeng New Materials (002521) has a daily increase of 3.24% and a divergence rate of 3.05% [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Divergence - Anuoqi (300067) shows a daily increase of 2.60% with a divergence rate of 1.87% [1] - Henglin Shares (603661) has a daily increase of 2.56% and a divergence rate of 1.35% [1] - Other stocks with minor divergence rates include Rabbit Baby (002043), Landun Optoelectronics (300862), and Transsion Holdings (688036) [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 828 million yuan, up 28.48% year-on-year [6] - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with seamless pipe revenue showing steady growth and composite pipe revenue experiencing significant increases due to overseas orders [6] - The company is expanding its presence in high-end sectors, with high-value products contributing to 20% of total revenue, reflecting a 15.42% year-on-year growth [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 11.618 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.682 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 12.9% increase year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.72 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 13 [2] Market Data - As of August 27, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 22.37 yuan, with a market capitalization of 21.362 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a dividend yield of 4.34% based on the most recent dividend announcement [3] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.8 [3]

Key Insights - The report highlights the updated monthly interest rate timing strategy, which includes enriched factor indicators and differentiated weight settings, leading to improved predictive accuracy [12][10][5] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Atour (ATAT.O) with a 37.4% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, reaching 2.47 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 39.8% to 425 million yuan, exceeding expectations [13][11] - Shenzhen International (00152.HK) reported a revenue of 6.67 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.9%, but a net profit decline of 24.9% due to the absence of prior REIT gains [16][14] Group 1: Atour (ATAT.O) - The company achieved a RevPAR of 343 yuan, recovering to 95.7% of the same period last year, with an occupancy rate (OCC) of 97.4% and an average daily rate (ADR) of 98.2% [13] - Atour's retail business saw a GMV of 1.144 billion yuan in Q2, a significant year-on-year increase of 84.6%, with online sales maintaining a 90% share [15] - The company has adjusted its full-year retail revenue guidance to a 60% year-on-year increase based on current growth trends [15] Group 2: Shenzhen International (00152.HK) - The company confirmed a profit increase of approximately 290 million yuan from the sale of residential projects, contributing to overall performance despite a net profit decline [16] - The logistics park transformation project is expected to provide significant profit elasticity, with estimated tax-adjusted returns exceeding 156.58 billion yuan [16] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 3.081 billion, 3.430 billion, and 3.925 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively [16] Group 3: Steel Industry Insights - Baosteel (600019) reported a revenue of 151.372 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 4.879 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.28% decline in revenue but a 7.36% increase in net profit [20] - The company achieved a steel production volume of 25.46 million tons, with a gross profit per ton increasing by 56.53% year-on-year [20] - The report indicates that the high-end product segment continues to grow, contributing to overall revenue stability in the steel sector [23]

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Li Special Materials' stock price closed at 22.37 yuan on August 27, 2025, reflecting a decline of 3.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 540 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.48% [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiu Li Special Materials operates in the steel industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of stainless steel pipes and special alloy materials [1] - The company's products are widely used in sectors such as oil, chemical, and power [1] Group 2: Shareholder Information - As of the end of the second quarter, pension accounts held 36.037 million shares of Jiu Li Special Materials, accounting for 3.77% of the circulating shares, with the market value of holdings ranking among the top in pension heavyweights [1] Group 3: Market Activity - On August 27, 2025, the net outflow of main funds from Jiu Li Special Materials was 16.0524 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 137 million yuan over the past five days [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 6.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.39%, and net profit of 828 million yuan, up 28.48% [1]. - The composite pipe business experienced rapid growth, with revenue from composite pipes increasing by 219.26% year-on-year, primarily driven by large orders from EBK composite pipes [2]. - The company's gross margin remained high at 27.20% for the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.29 percentage points year-on-year, with seamless pipes and composite pipes showing significant margin growth [2]. - The company is focusing on high-end capacity release and international business collaboration, with a production capacity of 200,000 tons of industrial pipes and ongoing projects expected to enhance production capabilities [3]. - Future profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 1.722 billion yuan in 2025, with expected growth rates of 15.5% and a PE ratio of 13x [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, a 26.39% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 828 million yuan, up 28.48% [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 3.223 billion yuan, a 31.97% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 438 million yuan, reflecting a 38.74% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Business Segments - Revenue from seamless pipes, welded pipes, and composite pipes in H1 2025 was 2.318 billion yuan, 821 million yuan, and 2.050 billion yuan, respectively, with composite pipes showing the highest growth [2]. - The international revenue increased significantly, with overseas sales rising from 1.669 billion yuan to 3.219 billion yuan, contributing to 52.73% of total revenue [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue enhancing its profitability with the gradual release of high-end production capacity, projecting net profits of 1.722 billion yuan in 2025, 1.893 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.176 billion yuan in 2027 [4][5]. - The completion of various projects, including the EBK company upgrade, is anticipated to further support capacity expansion and performance improvement [3].

Market Performance - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 3.15% on August 27, with Shengde Xintai leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3800.35, down 1.76%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12295.07, down 1.43% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable declines in individual stocks include: - Shengde Login (300881) at 35.52, down 5.81% with a trading volume of 47,600 shares and a turnover of 171 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) at 5.61, down 4.92% with a trading volume of 404,000 shares and a turnover of 231 million yuan [1] - Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.40, down 4.23% with a trading volume of 934,800 shares and a turnover of 325 million yuan [1] - Other notable declines include Jiuli Special Materials (002318), Shagang Co. (002075), and CITIC Special Steel (000708) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 152 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 76.4 million yuan [1] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates: - Fushun Special Steel (600399) had a main fund net inflow of 44.57 million yuan, but retail investors had a net outflow of 37.89 million yuan [2] - Jinzhou Pipeline (002443) experienced a main fund net inflow of 11.92 million yuan, with retail investors also seeing a net outflow [2] - Other stocks like Tai Steel (000825) and Jiuli Special Materials (002318) showed mixed capital flows with significant retail inflows despite main fund outflows [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights the growth in the number of enterprises in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry, with a total of 6,265 enterprises as of the first half of 2025, reflecting an increase of 56 enterprises year-on-year, which is a growth rate of 0.9% [1] Industry Overview - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry accounted for 1.2% of the total industrial enterprises in China as of the first half of 2025 [1] - The threshold for scale industrial enterprises was raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan starting from 2011 [1] Related Companies - The report mentions several listed companies in the industry, including CITIC Special Steel, Hebei Steel, Zhongnan Shares, Benxi Steel Plate, and others [1] Research Background - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports and investment forecasts [1]

Group 1 - Jiu Li Special Materials (002318.SZ) reported its 2025 semi-annual results on August 26, 2025, with 75 institutional investors holding a total of 592 million shares, accounting for 60.61% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 52.87% of the shares, with a 1.99 percentage point increase compared to the previous quarter [1] - One public fund, GF Stable Growth Mixed A, reduced its holdings, while one new public fund, Nanhua CSI Hangzhou Bay Area ETF, was disclosed this period [1] Group 2 - One social security fund, the National Social Security Fund 401 Combination, was not disclosed this period, while one pension fund, the Basic Pension Insurance Fund 15011 Combination, increased its holdings slightly [2] - Foreign investment increased with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited adding to its holdings by 0.19% compared to the previous period [2]