久立特材（002318.SZ） 季度业绩显著改善，高增趋势有望延续 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 投资建议。公司专注中高端不锈钢管制造，产能扩张带动产销规模持续增长， 下游需求持续向好有效支撑其盈利释放，产品加速高端化迭代有望支撑其估 值走高，我们预计公司 2025 年~2027 年实现归母净利分别为 18.1 亿元、20.3 亿元、22.7 亿元，对应 PE 为 12.2、10.9、9.7 倍，维持"买入"评级。 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。公司上半年实现营业收入 61.05 亿元， 同比增长 26.39%；归属于母公司所有者的净利润 8.28 亿元，同比增长 28.48%；基本每股收益 0.87 元，同比增长 29.85%。 季度业绩显著改善，主业利润持续高增。公司 2025Q2 实现归母净利 4.38 亿 元，同比增长 38.74%，环比增长 12.66%，实现扣非归母净利 3.94 亿元，同 比增长 25.95%，环比下降 0.02%；2025 年上半年扣除联营企业投资收益后 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 8.04 亿元，同比增长 ...

常宝股份（002478.SZ） 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 22 年 月 日 季度业绩环比改善，特材项目持续推进 事件：公司发布 2025年半年度报告。公司上半年实现营业收入28.12亿元，同比增长0.26%； 归属于母公司所有者的净利润 2.55 亿元，同比减少 21.81%；基本每股收益 0.28 元，同比 减少 22.22%。 季度业绩环比改善，销售净利率小幅回落。公司 2025Q2 实现归母净利 1.44 亿元，同比下 降 10.21%，环比增长 29.15%，实现扣非归母净利 1.26 亿元，同比下降 4.98%，环比增长 34.18%；公司 2024Q3-2025Q2 逐季销售毛利率分别为 17.10%、17.45%、15.33%、15.75%， 逐季销售净利率分别为 6.53%、15.78%、9.76%、9.25%，上半年受行业整体竞争加强及外 贸市场下滑等影响，公司盈利情况同比有所下降，2025 年二季度销售净利率小幅回落。分 产品来看，上半年油套管毛利率为 16.04%，同比增长 0.84pct，锅炉管毛利率为 19.49%， 同比下降 1.99p ...

Group 1 - Fengcai Technology is conducting an H-share issuance with a maximum price of 120.50 HKD per share, aiming to raise funds for its specialized chip business [1] - The global offering consists of 16.3 million shares, with 1.63 million shares available for public offering in Hong Kong [1] - Zijin Mining plans to acquire the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan for 1.2 billion USD, enhancing its resource portfolio [1][2] Group 2 - Mindray Medical's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 5 million shares, approximately 0.41% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [3] - Degute is planning to acquire control of Haowei Technology through a combination of cash and share issuance, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [4] - New Dairy's controlling shareholder intends to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital, also for funding purposes [5] Group 3 - Yueyang Xinchang has resumed production after completing maintenance on its main production facilities, positively impacting its operations [6] - Chengdu Xian Dao has terminated its major asset restructuring plan due to failure to reach agreement on key terms [7] - Maglev Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital for personal financial arrangements [9] Group 4 - Zhongyan Dadi announced a cash dividend of 2.82 CNY per 10 shares and a capital increase of 3.99 shares per 10 shares [10] - Yunda Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 47.22 million CNY [12] - Victory Co. intends to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 CNY per 10 shares, amounting to around 36.06 million CNY [13] Group 5 - Shagang Group has invested 2.67 billion CNY in financial products while planning to use up to 8 billion CNY of idle funds for further investments [14] - Jiuyuan Yinhai's subsidiary won an 8.43 million CNY project contract, constituting a related party transaction [15] - China Railway Signal & Communication has announced the resignation of a board member due to personal reasons [16] Group 6 - China Rare Earth clarified that recent management changes have not affected its operations, ensuring stability in production [17] - Qixiang Tengda plans to conduct routine maintenance on its 60,000-ton acetone plant for 60 days to enhance operational safety [19] - ST King Kong's subsidiary signed a 399 million CNY contract for computing power services, indicating growth in its service offerings [20] Group 7 - Ziguang Guowei repurchased 775,500 shares for approximately 49.62 million CNY, reflecting confidence in its market position [22] - Qin Port's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2% of the total share capital for development needs [22] - Longqi Technology has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, expanding its market presence [24]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 105.7 CNY, based on a 35X PE for 2025 [5][48]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the precision stamping special steel materials sector for twenty years and is now venturing into the humanoid robot field, applying its materials innovatively in harmonic and planetary gear reducers [1][12]. - The domestic automotive market shows strong demand for precision stamping materials, with opportunities for domestic substitution as the country still relies on imports for high-end materials [2][28]. - The company has developed significant core technologies in precision cold rolling and heat treatment, allowing it to compete effectively with international giants like Wills, offering products at 30%-50% lower prices than foreign competitors [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in customized precision stamping special steel materials, primarily used in various automotive components, and plans to expand into the robot sector by 2024 [1][12]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the chairman holding 30.16% of the shares, which is favorable for long-term development [14]. Main Business - The demand for precision stamping materials in the automotive sector is robust, with a current market demand of approximately 1 million tons per year in China [2][28]. - The company has maintained a strong focus on independent research and development, achieving performance levels close to international competitors [2][32]. - The new plant in Anhui is expected to add 150,000 tons of capacity, expanding the company's total capacity to 300,000 tons [2][34]. Robotics Sector - The company is innovatively applying precision stamping technology to the harmonic reducer flexible wheel material, which is crucial for reducing costs and improving efficiency in humanoid robot production [3][38]. - The flexible wheel's quality is critical for the fatigue life of harmonic reducers, which are essential components in humanoid robots [38]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 1.78 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 20%, and net profit is expected to be 245 million CNY, growing by 18.45% [4][45]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins as it expands into high-end markets [4][45]. Valuation - The report compares the company with peers like Siling Co., Longsheng Technology, and Keda Li, with an average valuation of 41X for 2025, leading to a target PE of 35X for the company [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 105.7 CNY, based on a 35X PE for 2025 [5][48]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the precision stamping special steel materials sector for twenty years and is now venturing into the humanoid robot field, applying its materials innovatively in harmonic and planetary gear reducers [1][12]. - The domestic automotive market shows strong demand for precision stamping materials, with a significant opportunity for domestic substitution as the country still relies on imports for high-end materials [2][28]. - The company has developed core technologies in precision cold rolling and heat treatment, allowing it to produce materials that are competitive with international giants while offering lower prices [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in customized precision stamping special steel materials, primarily used in various automotive components, and plans to expand into the robotics sector in 2024 [1][12]. - The ownership structure is stable, with the chairman holding 30.16% of the shares, which is favorable for long-term development [14]. Main Business - The company is a leader in the domestic precision stamping materials market, with a focus on high-end product substitution [2][28]. - The automotive sector accounts for over 75% of the demand for precision stamping materials, with a current market demand of approximately 1 million tons per year [28][29]. - The company has a production capacity of 180,000 tons, with plans to expand by an additional 150,000 tons through a new plant in Anhui [2][34]. Robotics Sector - The company is innovatively applying precision stamping technology to the production of harmonic reducer flexible wheels, which are critical components in humanoid robots [3][38]. - This new application is expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs, opening a second growth curve for the company [3][44]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 1.78 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-over-year growth of 20%, and net profit is expected to be 245 million CNY, growing by 18.45% [4][45]. - The company’s EBITDA is forecasted to be 309.24 million CNY in 2025, with a steady increase in profit margins as it moves into higher-end markets [4][46]. Valuation - The report compares the company with peers and sets a target valuation based on a 35X PE for 2025, reflecting a favorable market position and growth potential [48][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in net profit in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, down 15.41% year-on-year and 53.19% quarter-on-quarter. However, the overall sales and production volumes are expected to grow in 2025 [1][2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and transitioning towards deeper processing, with several projects underway, including new production lines for stainless steel and titanium materials [3]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with expected revenues of 450 to 500 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.10% to 20.40% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 93.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.41% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s cold-rolled stainless steel production in Q1 2025 was 763,000 tons, a decline of 1.5% year-on-year, while sales volume was 726,000 tons, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year [2]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company has several projects in progress, including a 400,000-ton stainless steel plate production line and a titanium alloy production line, which are expected to enhance production capacity significantly [3]. - The company plans to produce 3.8 million tons of cold-rolled stainless steel in 2025, with a projected revenue of 450 to 500 billion yuan [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.6 billion yuan, 9.6 billion yuan, and 10.9 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.7, 6.9, and 6.0 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its leading position in the special steel industry and improving capacity integration capabilities [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with a net profit of 1.384 billion yuan, up 1.76% year-on-year and 7.31% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][3]. - The demand for special steel is expected to grow in the long term due to favorable manufacturing policies and the maturation of the steel industry, leading to an anticipated recovery in sales gross margins [1][3]. - The company aims to achieve a steel production target of 18.6 million tons and an export target of 2.65 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.3% in exports [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 26.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.59% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin showed signs of improvement [1]. - The company's sales gross margins for the last four quarters were 12.30%, 12.51%, 14.39%, and 13.82%, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [1]. - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 5.449 billion yuan, 5.969 billion yuan, and 6.305 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.8, 9.9, and 9.4 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 34.43% year-on-year increase in 2024, reaching 2.663 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 87.38%, amounting to 226 million yuan [1] - The company is expanding its production capacity and improving its product mix, particularly in high-end products, which is expected to enhance profitability [2] - The company is diversifying into the automotive parts industry, which is anticipated to provide new profit growth points [3] - Future net profits are projected to be 272 million yuan in 2025, 300 million yuan in 2026, and 324 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.1, 11.0, and 10.2 [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 19.58% in Q1, which improved to 22.74% in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a decreasing rate, with projections of 10.0% growth in 2025, followed by 4.5% and 4.4% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 8.5% in 2024 to 10.1% in 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [4] Production and Market Position - The company’s production capacity for stainless steel is set to reach 160,000 tons, making it the leader in the domestic market for small-diameter seamless steel pipes used in ultra-supercritical boilers [2] - The sales volume of alloy steel products increased by approximately 21.68% in the first half of 2024, while stainless steel product sales surged by about 81.06% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has acquired a 68% stake in Jiangsu Ruimei Automotive Parts Co., aiming to strengthen its position in the automotive parts sector [3] - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on lightweight manufacturing for automotive parts is expected to enhance the company's resilience and profitability [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in profit, with a 14.48% decrease in revenue to 5.696 billion yuan and a 19.00% drop in net profit to 634 million yuan in 2024 [1][4] - The company's special material projects are progressing steadily, with a production capacity of 1 million tons of special pipes and significant market share in various segments [2] - The downstream demand is expected to improve, with a stable and expanding market for oil and gas pipelines and boiler pipes anticipated in 2025 [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross profit margin for oil casing was 15.95%, down 6.67 percentage points year-on-year, primarily impacting overall profitability [1] - Quarterly sales gross margins showed an upward trend from Q1 to Q4 of 2024, indicating a recovery in the fourth quarter [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 713 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 852 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.0, 6.2, and 5.8 [3][4] Market Outlook - The oil and gas pipeline market is expected to stabilize and optimize, with increased demand for unconventional oil and gas resources in both offshore and onshore sectors [2] - The boiler pipe market is projected to remain robust due to significant investments in thermal power, with a 32.7% increase in investment in 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.49 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.12%. The net profit excluding non-recurring gains increased by 24.63% to 1.52 billion yuan [1] - The company's main business continues to show significant improvement, with a 42.02% year-on-year growth in net profit after excluding investment income from joint ventures [1] - The sales gross margin and net margin showed fluctuations throughout 2024, benefiting from accelerated international expansion and increased downstream nuclear power investments [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 10.918 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.42% [1] - The revenue from high-value-added and high-tech products reached approximately 2.4 billion yuan, accounting for about 22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [2] - The company plans to achieve total sales of approximately 190,000 tons of industrial finished steel pipes in 2025, representing a growth of 23.7% compared to 2024 [3] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company currently has a production capacity of 200,000 tons of industrial finished pipes and plans to increase capacity by an additional 20,000 tons with new projects [3] - The ongoing projects include high-performance pipes for nuclear energy and oil and gas, with completion rates of 98%, 85%, and 30% respectively [2] - The company expects to maintain a growth trend in both volume and price due to improvements in product structure [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.81 billion yuan, 2.05 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2, 11.7, and 10.4 [3] - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is approximately 11.424 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.6% [4]