业绩超预期，分红创新高 ——久立特材 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 由于公司高端产品持续发力，无缝管、管件等产品毛利率超预期，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.75、1.93 和 2.14 元（原 2025-2026 年每股收益的预测值 为 1.67、1.84 元）。以 DCF 法进行估值，目标价 32.04 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 下募投项目进度不及预期风险、产品升级不及预期风险、宏观经济增速放缓、能源价格 大幅波动风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 8,568 | 10,918 | 13,106 | 13,729 | 14,554 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.1% | 27.4% | 20.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,734 | 1,813 | 2,036 | 2,239 | 2,491 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The company's sales gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 27.6% and 13.9%, respectively, with the gross margin increasing due to a higher proportion of high-end products [4]. - The company aims to achieve a total sales volume of approximately 190,000 tons of industrial finished pipes and 10,500 tons of pipe fittings by 2025, with ongoing project developments showing significant progress [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 126 billion, 140 billion, and 157 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 11.0%, and 12.2% respectively [5]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 85.7 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 31.07%, and is expected to reach 109.2 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 17.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.78 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 times [5][6]. Production Capacity and Project Progress - The company currently has an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of finished pipes, 15,000 tons of fittings, and 26,000 tons of alloy materials [4]. - Key projects include the "Special Metallurgy Phase II Project" at 98% completion, the "EBK Company Upgrade Project" at 70%, and the "20,000 Tons of High-Performance Pipes for Nuclear and Oil & Gas" project at 30% [4]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading domestic high-end stainless steel pipe manufacturer, maintaining the highest market share in the industry for several years [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 10.918 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.49 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.12% [6]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the increase in high-end product sales, particularly in the composite pipe segment, which saw a significant volume increase of 247.24% [6]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion and focusing on high-end market segments, with high-value products contributing approximately 24 billion yuan to revenue, representing a 25% year-on-year growth [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 8.568 billion yuan - 2024: 10.918 billion yuan - 2025E: 11.618 billion yuan - 2026E: 12.235 billion yuan - 2027E: 12.779 billion yuan - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be: - 2023: 1.489 billion yuan - 2024: 1.490 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.682 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.895 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.091 billion yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.53 yuan in 2023 to 2.14 yuan in 2027 [2][8]. Market Data - As of March 26, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was 24.94 yuan, with a market capitalization of 23.812 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected to decrease from 16 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating potential value for investors [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 30.78, up from the previous target of 24.16 [1][7]. Core Views - The company's 2024 performance meets expectations, driven by high-end products and rapid growth in overseas business, which is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth [2][7]. - The overseas revenue proportion reached 42.79% in 2024, an increase of 8.42 percentage points year-on-year, with an overseas gross margin of 29.97%, surpassing domestic levels [7]. - The composite pipe business saw a significant revenue increase of 599.8% year-on-year, with sales volume rising by 247.24% [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 10,918 million, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, while net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,490 million, a slight increase of 0.1% [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted at 1.71, 1.93, and 2.19 respectively [7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.2 billion, representing 61.74% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, indicating a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio [7]. Business Growth - High-value, high-tech products accounted for approximately 24 billion in revenue, making up 22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [7]. - The alloy materials segment experienced a revenue increase of 59.94% year-on-year, driven by the second phase of production and market expansion [7]. - The company is investing in a new project to produce 20,000 tons of high-performance pipes for nuclear and oil and gas applications, indicating future capacity growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 27.44 [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 10.918 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 27.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.490 billion, which is in line with previous expectations [1][2]. - The sales volume of composite pipes saw a significant increase of 247.24% year-over-year, driven by the completion of overseas project acquisitions [2]. - The company plans to distribute a high dividend ratio of 61.74% for 2024, the highest since 2019, reflecting strong shareholder returns [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 3.775 billion, a year-over-year increase of 56.36% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 63.23% [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 27.63%, with Q4 gross margin at 28.96%, showing a slight decrease due to the sales rhythm of high-end products [2]. Sales and Product Mix - The sales volumes for welded pipes, seamless pipes, and composite pipes in 2024 were 63.7 thousand tons, 61.2 thousand tons, and 28.7 thousand tons, respectively, with composite pipes showing a notable increase [2]. Investment and Acquisitions - The company’s overseas investment project, EBK, contributed a net profit of RMB 220 million in 2024, while the joint venture alloy company contributed RMB 109 million [3]. - The company plans to reduce its stake in Yongxing Materials by up to 15.83 million shares to optimize its asset structure and focus on core business development [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be RMB 1.77, RMB 1.91, and RMB 2.07, respectively [5]. - The report adjusts the 2025 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to 15.5 times, reflecting the anticipated performance from overseas projects and increased production capacity [5].

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Li Special Materials reported a revenue of 10.918 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.42%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.49 billion yuan, which is in line with previous expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.775 billion yuan, up 56.36% year-on-year and 63.23% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 445 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.01% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.12% [1] - The sales volume for welded pipes, seamless pipes, and composite pipes in 2024 was 63.7 thousand tons, 61.2 thousand tons, and 28.7 thousand tons respectively, with composite pipes showing a significant increase of 247.24% year-on-year [2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 27.63%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points year-on-year, while Q4 gross margin was 28.96%, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.19 percentage points [2] Group 2: Investment and Dividends - The company plans to distribute a dividend ratio of over 60% for 2024, with a proposed dividend ratio of 61.74%, the highest since 2019 [2] - The overseas investment project EBK contributed a net profit of 220 million yuan in 2024, while the joint venture alloy company achieved a net profit of 109 million yuan [2] - The company intends to reduce its stake in Yongxing Materials by up to 15.83 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total shares, to optimize its asset structure and focus on core business R&D [3] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.77 yuan, 1.91 yuan, and 2.07 yuan respectively, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [4] - The target price is set at 27.44 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.5 times for 2025, considering the successful release of overseas project performance and the potential for increased high-end product sales [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.918 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.490 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.12% [2][3]. - The net profit, excluding investment income from joint ventures, showed a significant increase of 42.02%, reaching 1.416 billion yuan [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.70 yuan per 10 shares, with an expected payout of 920 million yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.74% [3]. Financial Performance - The company's high-end product revenue reached approximately 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for about 22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [4]. - The overall sales gross margin improved by 1.45 percentage points to 27.63%, while the net profit margin decreased by 3.49 percentage points to 13.92% due to a lack of investment income from joint ventures [4]. - The company’s alloy business generated revenue of 1.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 109 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.741 billion yuan, 1.935 billion yuan, and 2.149 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.2, 12.8, and 11.5 [5][6].

Summary of Jiuli Special Materials Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiuli Special Materials - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Revenue**: 10.9 billion CNY, achieving initial sales target [3][4] Key Financial Performance - **High-end Products Revenue**: 2.4 billion CNY, a growth of approximately 25% year-on-year [3] - **Main Business Profit**: 1.416 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 42% [3] - **Revenue Distribution**: - Oil and gas sector: ~63% - Power equipment manufacturing (including nuclear power): ~13% - Nuclear power: 10%-11% [5] Strategic Focus and Growth Drivers - **Acquisition Impact**: The acquisition of EBK has significantly enhanced composite pipe business performance [3] - **Product Value Addition**: Focus on increasing product value and optimizing cost structure [3][7] - **Stable Seamless Pipe Sales**: Approximately 60,000 tons in 2024, with growth in oil well pipe demand [9] - **Composite Pipe Sales**: 30,000 tons in 2024, with a significant contribution from overseas markets [11] Product Development and Market Position - **High-end Product Definition**: Products priced over 100,000 CNY with a gross margin exceeding 30% [6] - **Nuclear Power Business**: Expected to contribute 10%-11% to overall revenue, with new orders for advanced materials [15][17] - **Future Product Applications**: Composite pipes are expected to expand beyond oil and gas to other sectors [24] Operational Insights - **Production Capacity**: Expected total capacity post-investment to reach 70,000-80,000 tons, with domestic capacity around 30,000 tons [12] - **Welding Pipe Strategy**: Focus on quality over quantity, avoiding price competition [13] - **Pipe Fitting Business**: Revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with increased customer acceptance of packaged services [14] R&D and Technological Advancements - **AI Integration**: Plans to incorporate AI technology to enhance R&D efficiency and supply chain management [28][29] - **Future R&D Directions**: Continuous investment in R&D to ensure stable growth over the next 3 to 10 years [7] Market Outlook and Future Projections - **2025 Expectations**: Anticipated production of approximately 150,000 tons, with a focus on high-quality orders [25] - **Nuclear Power Orders**: Long-term contracts secured for U-shaped evaporator heat exchange tubes, with stable supply planning [17][18] - **Overall Market Sentiment**: Positive outlook for 2025-2026, with a focus on maintaining customer relationships and improving order quality [31] Additional Considerations - **Dividend Strategy**: Reflects management's confidence in sustainable growth and shareholder returns [8] - **International Market Dynamics**: Increased demand for composite pipes in domestic markets, driven by successful overseas sales [27] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Jiuli Special Materials conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, strategic focus, product development, operational insights, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.918 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.490 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.12% [1] - The company reported a significant increase in high value-added and high-tech product revenue, which rose by 25% year-on-year, contributing approximately 2.4 billion yuan to total revenue [2] - The company plans to achieve a sales target of 190,000 tons for industrial finished steel pipes in 2025 [2] - The company’s European operations saw a net profit of 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.07% [3] - The cash dividend ratio reached 61.74% in 2024, with total cash dividends amounting to 920 million yuan [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s operating income for 2024 was 10.918 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.490 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 1.521 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.63% [1] - The average selling price of seamless pipes increased by 6.86% to 70,004 yuan per ton, while the average gross profit per ton rose by 25.59% to 23,335 yuan [2] - The company’s total assets increased to 14.166 billion yuan in 2024, with total liabilities at 6.049 billion yuan [12] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts net profits of 1.624 billion yuan for 2025, 1.876 billion yuan for 2026, and 2.160 billion yuan for 2027 [4] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 16 in 2024 to 11 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation outlook [14] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 27.6% in 2024 to 30.4% by 2027 [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 10.918 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.42%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.490 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.12% [1][2]. - The company's core profit, excluding investment income from joint ventures, increased by 42.02% year-on-year, indicating strong operational performance despite a decline in investment income [2]. - The sales volume of composite pipes surged by 247.24% year-on-year, significantly contributing to overall sales growth [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.7 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 920 million yuan, which represents 61.74% of the annual net profit, reflecting a 30.70 percentage point increase year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 63.23% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 27.63%, up by 1.45 percentage points year-on-year, while the Q4 gross profit margin was 28.96%, showing a decrease compared to the previous quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on high-end capacity release and accelerating international expansion, with a production capacity of 200,000 tons of industrial finished pipes and 15,000 tons of fittings [4]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 190,000 tons of finished pipes in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.70% [2]. - The company has significant ongoing projects, with completion rates of 98%, 85%, 70%, 40%, and 30% for various high-end production projects as of 2024 [4]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 1.713 billion yuan, 1.882 billion yuan, and 2.045 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 13x, and 12x [5][6].