JIULI Hi-tech(002318)
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钢铁2026年度策略:破内卷启新篇
Xinda Securities· 2025-12-12 03:25
Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with structural optimization and marginal profit improvement. Supply side: total contraction and structural differentiation, with capital expenditure continuing to show weak growth. The steel industry's capital expenditure has been slowing for four consecutive years, entering negative growth in 2025 due to multiple factors including "anti-involution" policies, a downturn in the real estate sector, and limited infrastructure support [2][10] - The domestic crude steel consumption has decreased significantly, with a 6.4% year-on-year decline in demand from January to October 2025, amounting to 710 million tons. The demand in traditional steel usage areas remains weak, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [2][32] - Exports have become a crucial support for the steel industry, with steel exports reaching 97.74 million tons from January to October 2025, a 6.4% increase year-on-year. The total annual export volume is expected to exceed 110 million tons, effectively offsetting the pressure from declining domestic demand [2][48] Group 1: Marginal Improvement in the Steel Industry - The average steel price has continued to decline, with the comprehensive price index for ordinary steel dropping to 3,447 yuan/ton as of November 24, 2025, down approximately 200 yuan from the year's peak [10][60] - The profit margin of the steel industry has shown significant improvement, with the gross profit margin reaching 6.4% in Q3 2025, marking a recovery from the low levels seen since 2022 [13][15] - The proportion of loss-making enterprises in the steel industry has slightly decreased but remains high at 37.18%, indicating ongoing challenges within the industry [17] Group 2: PPI Turnaround Expectations - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the steel industry is expected to turn positive by Q2 2026, driven by improvements in supply structure and demand dynamics [53][60] - Historical data shows that the steel industry plays a significant role in PPI fluctuations, with past PPI turnarounds in 2016 and 2021 coinciding with significant steel industry performance [54][60] - The steel industry accounts for approximately 5.9% of the PPI, making its price movements critical for overall industrial price trends [53][54] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-efficiency, low-emission regional leading enterprises such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel, as well as companies with strong growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4][60] - The steel sector is viewed as having strong "anti-involution" attributes and significant profit recovery potential, making it a strategic investment opportunity for the medium to long term [4][60] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of small and medium-sized steel companies, particularly those with strong earnings growth and valuation appeal [4][60]
钢铁行业2026年投资策略:减量提质,价利回稳
GF SECURITIES· 2025-12-11 09:08
Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a reduction in production capacity and an improvement in quality, leading to stabilization in prices and profits in 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply - A new capacity replacement policy is set to be implemented, which is expected to continue reducing crude steel production in 2026 [6] - The capacity replacement policy will increase the reduction ratio in non-key areas to at least 1.5:1, enhancing long-term capacity constraints [14][18] - The overall crude steel production is anticipated to decrease year-on-year due to differentiated production restrictions and proactive production control by enterprises [6][28] Group 2: Demand - Investment stability and domestic demand expansion are expected to lead to a recovery in steel demand in 2026 [6] - The construction sector is projected to see a recovery in fixed asset investment, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [36] - Manufacturing sectors such as automotive, machinery, and home appliances are expected to maintain growth in steel demand due to supportive policies [6][57] Group 3: Costs - Steel cost pressures are expected to continue easing in 2026, with iron ore supply slightly increasing and demand stabilizing [6][61] - The global iron ore supply is projected to see a slight increase, with the four major mining companies expected to have a production growth rate of about 1.8% in 2026 [66] - The overall balance between iron ore supply and demand is expected to remain weak, with prices anticipated to fluctuate downward [6][61] Group 4: Prices and Profits - The reduction in production and improvement in quality are expected to help stabilize steel prices and profits in 2026 [6] - Demand for flat steel is expected to remain stronger than for long steel, with policies aimed at further tapping into consumption potential [6] - The anticipated decline in crude steel production, primarily driven by loss-making enterprises and policy-induced reductions, will contribute to a mild improvement in the steel supply-demand landscape [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector and those involved in restructuring and integration, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [6] - In the special steel sector, high-performance steel products are encouraged, with companies like Jiuli Special Materials and Yongjin Co. expected to benefit from policy support [6][7]
年,月:金属的分化
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-12-07 08:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [9]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence in performance compared to non-ferrous metals, with non-ferrous metals benefiting more from manufacturing sectors like electrical machinery and telecommunications, while steel is more reliant on real estate and automotive industries [2]. - The average daily pig iron production has decreased, with a notable drop in steel output, particularly in rebar production [12][18]. - Total steel inventory has seen a significant reduction, with a week-on-week decline of 2.5% [24]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened, with rebar demand declining more than hot-rolled coil demand [40]. - Iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by supply adjustments and market dynamics [50]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily pig iron production has decreased by 23,000 tons to 2.323 million tons, with a significant drop in steel output [12][18]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is at 87.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [18]. Inventory - Total steel inventory has decreased by 2.5% week-on-week, with social inventory down 2.9% and steel mill inventory down 1.6% [24][26]. Demand - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products is 8.642 million tons, down 2.7% week-on-week [51]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel is 99,000 tons, reflecting a 5.3% decrease [41]. Raw Materials - The iron ore price index for 62% Fe is at $107.1 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [61]. - Australian iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, while Brazilian shipments have increased [61]. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight improvement in the industry's profitability [75]. - The current cost of long-process rebar is 3,533 RMB per ton, with a loss of 233 RMB per ton [75][81].
久立特材(002318) - 2025年第一期员工持股计划
2025-12-05 10:46
浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 2025 年第一期员工持股计划 证券简称:久立特材 证券代码:002318 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 2025 年第一期员工持股计划 二〇二五年十二月 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 2025 年第一期员工持股计划 声明 本公司及董事会全体成员保证本员工持股计划内容真实、准确和完整,不存 在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 本方案主要条款与公司2025年11月19日公告的公司2025年第一期员工持股 计划草案及其摘要内容一致。 1 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 2025 年第一期员工持股计划 风险提示 一、浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司(以下简称"久立特材"或"公司") 2025年第一期员工持股计划(以下简称"本员工持股计划")须经公司股东会批 准后方可实施,本员工持股计划能否获得公司股东会批准,存在不确定性。 二、有关本员工持股计划的具体资金来源、出资比例、实施方案等属初步结 果,能否完成实施,存在不确定性。若员工认购资金较低,则本次员工持股计划 存在不能成立的风险;若员工认购资金不足,本次员工持股计划存在低于预计规 模的风险。 三、本员工持股计划由公司自行管理,公司设立员工 ...
久立特材(002318) - 2025年第二次临时股东会决议公告
2025-12-05 10:45
证券代码:002318 证券简称:久立特材 公告编号:2025-046 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示: 1、本次股东会未出现否决议案的情形; 2、本次股东会未涉及变更以往股东会决议的情形。 一、会议召开和出席情况 (一)会议召开情况 1、会议召开日期和时间:2025 年 12 月 5 日 14:30 网络投票时间为:通过深圳证券交易所系统进行网络投票的具体时间为 2025 年 12 月 5 日 9:15-9:25,9:30-11:30,13:00-15:00;通过深圳证券交易所互 联网投票系统投票的具体时间为 2025 年 12 月 5 日 9:15 至 15:00 的任意时间。 2、现场会议召开地点:湖州市吴兴区八里店久立特材三楼会议室 3、会议召集人:公司第七届董事会 4、会议召开方式:本次会议采取现场投票与网络投票相结合的方式 1、出席会议的总体情况 参加本次股东会现场会议和网络投票的股东、股东代表及委托代理人共 1 344 人,代表有表决权股份 553,61 ...
久立特材(002318) - 久立特材2025年第二次临时股东会法律意见书
2025-12-05 10:45
久立特材 2025 年第二次临时股东会法律意见书 国浩律师(杭州)事务所 国浩律师(杭州)事务所 关 于 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东会的 法律意见书 电子邮箱/Mail:grandallhz@grandall.com.cn 网址/Website:http://www.grandall.com.cn 二〇二五年十二月 久立特材 2025 年第二次临时股东会法律意见书 国浩律师(杭州)事务所 国浩律师(杭州)事务所 关 于 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 地址:杭州市上城区老复兴路白塔公园 B 区 2 号、15 号国浩律师楼 邮编:310008 Grandall Building, No.2&No.15, Block B, Baita Park, Old Fuxing Road, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310008, China 电话/Tel: (+86)(571) 8577 5888 传真/Fax: (+86)(571) 8577 5643 2025 年第二次临时股东会的 法律意见书 致:浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 国浩律师(杭州)事务所(以下简称"本所")接受浙江 ...
华金证券:核电景气度全面提升 产业链有望持续受益
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 09:32
Group 1 - The nuclear power industry chain in China is experiencing significant breakthroughs with the commencement of new projects in Shandong and Zhejiang, marking a full-scale launch of new constructions [1] - China Uranium Industry's IPO has been successfully launched, enhancing upstream resource security for the nuclear power sector [1][4] - The international fusion cooperation project BEST has been initiated, accelerating the layout of cutting-edge technologies in the nuclear energy field [1][2] Group 2 - Since 2022, China has consistently approved more than 10 nuclear power units annually, indicating a normalization of project approvals and strong investment momentum in the nuclear sector [3] - The total investment for the newly approved 10 nuclear units in April is estimated to exceed 200 billion yuan, reflecting robust demand for nuclear power construction [3] - In the first nine months of 2025, domestic nuclear power investment reached 990.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [3] Group 3 - China Uranium Industry holds significant mining rights and advanced extraction technologies, which will enhance domestic uranium production capacity and supply security [4] - The IPO aims to raise 4.11 billion yuan to fund several projects, including the Nalinggou uranium mine, thereby strengthening the upstream resource support for the nuclear power industry [4] Group 4 - As of October 2023, China operates 59 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 62.48 million kilowatts, maintaining the world's largest scale [5] - China's nuclear power generation accounts for only 5% of total electricity generation, indicating substantial growth potential compared to other regions [5] Group 5 - The first fourth-generation nuclear power plant is set to be operational by December 2023, showcasing advancements in safety and efficiency [6] - The BEST project is progressing, with significant investments in fusion energy technologies, indicating a clear roadmap for nuclear energy development in China [7] Group 6 - Investment opportunities are identified in various segments of the nuclear power industry, including equipment manufacturers, operators, and uranium resource companies [8] - Companies such as China Nuclear Power, China General Nuclear Power, and China Uranium Industry are highlighted as key players to watch in the evolving market [8]
特钢板块12月2日涨0.23%,太钢不锈领涨,主力资金净流出945.51万元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-12-02 09:03
Market Overview - The special steel sector increased by 0.23% on December 2, with Taiyuan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.7, down 0.68% [1] Stock Performance - Taiyuan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (code: 000825) saw a closing price of 4.40, with a rise of 7.06% and a trading volume of 1.5097 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 648 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include: - Xianglou New Materials (code: 301160) closed at 62.00, up 0.62% [1] - Jinzhu Pipeline (code: 002443) closed at 8.26, up 0.36% [1] - Xining Special Steel (code: 600117) closed at 2.91, up 0.34% [1] - Changbao Co., Ltd. (code: 002478) closed at 7.57, down 0.39% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 9.4551 million yuan from institutional investors and 20.0152 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 29.4703 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks includes: - Taiyuan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. had a net outflow of 34.7922 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xianglou New Materials had a net inflow of 15.5079 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Changbao Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 8.0780 million yuan from institutional investors [3]
海外降息预期强化,钢价怎么走?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-01 11:42
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Views - The expectation of overseas interest rate cuts is strengthening, which may lead to a corresponding adjustment in domestic monetary policy. The reserve requirement ratio is expected to trend downward, positively impacting short-term steel prices. Historical data shows that after 10 instances of reserve requirement cuts since 2020, the average increase in rebar prices was 20, 42, 45, 41, and 26 CNY/ton in the first five trading days post-cut, indicating a strong likelihood of price increases in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Steel inventory is being reduced smoothly, and there is a positive outlook for the real estate sector, leading to a slight increase in steel prices. However, the profitability of steel companies has not shown significant improvement due to sustained high prices of iron ore and coke. It is expected that steel production will continue to decline as companies proactively reduce inventory and conduct maintenance towards the end of the year. Demand may also weaken seasonally [4][5]. - The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 0.12% year-on-year but decreased by 0.81% month-on-month. The production of five major steel products decreased by 2.20% year-on-year but increased by 0.74% month-on-month, with daily molten iron production dropping to 2.3468 million tons [4][5]. Price Trends - Recent price trends show that Shanghai rebar has risen to 3,260 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled steel has reached 3,270 CNY/ton, up by 20 CNY/ton. The estimated profit for rebar is -134 CNY/ton, with a lagging cost profit of -99 CNY/ton [5]. Long-term Outlook - The renewed overseas interest rate cut cycle is expected to stabilize medium-term demand expectations for manufacturing. Although direct export demand for steel is limited, there is significant indirect demand through downstream sectors such as machinery, automotive, and home appliances. If overseas manufacturing recovers, it could stabilize steel manufacturing demand. The demand side for steel is expected to remain stable in 2026, driven by reduced production and improved cost structures [7][8].
钢铁行业周度更新报告:渐近冬储,盈利回调-20251201
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-12-01 09:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [3][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in apparent steel consumption and inventory levels, with a total apparent consumption of 8.88 million tons, down 0.69% week-on-week but up 1.2% year-on-year [5][21]. - The report anticipates that the steel demand will stabilize, with a continued expectation of supply contraction. The negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to diminish, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is projected to grow steadily [5][3]. Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices have increased week-on-week, with Shanghai rebar prices rising by 30 CNY/ton to 3260 CNY/ton, a 0.93% increase. Total steel inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 14.01 million tons [5][8]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills decreased to 81.09%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous week [5][27]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 91 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil had a gross profit of -47 CNY/ton, an increase of 18.4 CNY/ton [5][36]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices increased, with the price for PB powder rising by 2 CNY/ton to 793 CNY/ton, a 0.25% increase. The total inventory of iron ore at ports rose by 1% to 15.206 million tons [5][45][51]. - The total shipment volume of the four major iron ore producers decreased by 225,000 tons to 21.2 million tons [5][60]. Special Steel and New Materials - The report notes an increase in stainless steel prices and a recovery in industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate prices [5][4]. Macroeconomic Context - The crude steel production from January to October 2025 showed a year-on-year decline, with the construction and manufacturing sectors continuing to weaken [5][5.1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost and flexible steel companies like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5].