Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy has driven an increase in steel prices, leading to a positive outlook for value recovery in the steel sector [3][4]. - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 5.27%, compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index [11]. - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector saw a weekly increase of 5.27%, outperforming the market, with specific segments like long products rising by 8.32% and flat products by 6.95% [3][11]. - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4085 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.44 tons but a year-on-year increase of 1.41 tons [3][26]. Supply Data - As of July 4, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.3%, down 0.54 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization was at 51.1%, down 3.45 percentage points [3][26]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.734 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.06 thousand tons [3][26]. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products increased to 8.853 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 5.41 thousand tons [3][35]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 107 thousand tons, up 0.81 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting an increase of 8.23% [3][35]. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products rose to 9.161 million tons, an increase of 9.62 thousand tons week-on-week, but down 29.01% year-on-year [3][42]. - Factory inventory decreased to 4.238 million tons, down 9.72 thousand tons week-on-week, and down 13.43% year-on-year [3][42]. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,390.0 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 45.42 CNY/ton [3][49]. - The comprehensive index for special steel decreased to 6,576.5 CNY/ton, down 14.61 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][49]. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 187 CNY, an increase of 42.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][58]. - The average iron water cost was 2,148 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10.0 CNY/ton [3][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significance of the supply-side reform 2.0, which aims to eliminate backward production capacity and effectively address chaotic competition in the industry [1] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2015 led to substantial price increases in commodities, with rebar futures soaring from 843 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton, a 273% increase, and coking coal prices rising from 203 yuan to 719 yuan, a 3.5-fold increase [1] - The recent performance of the steel industry, particularly the China Steel Index, has mirrored past trends, with a notable increase of over 3.5% in a single day, indicating a potential revival similar to the previous supply-side reform [1][4] Group 2 - The current supply-side reform is characterized by unprecedented policy strength, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and orderly phasing out of backward production capacity, suggesting a potential for significant market recovery [6] - The valuation of steel stocks should consider the cyclical nature of the industry, with many steel companies currently valued below their replacement cost by 0.35 times, indicating a sufficient margin of safety [6] - The comparison between the China Steel Index and the National Steel Industry Index shows a high degree of overlap, with both indices focusing on the steel industry, although the China Steel Index includes some coal companies [7] Group 3 - The performance of funds tracking the China Steel Index and the National Steel Industry Index has been similar, with differences in returns being minimal, generally within 0.1% [12] - Specific funds, such as the Guolian National Steel A and Penghua National Steel Industry A, have shown significant returns of 8.10% and 7.66% respectively, outperforming the CSI 300 index [14] - The article suggests that as the economy develops, steel consumption will stabilize, with a shift from rebar consumption in construction to sheet metal consumption in manufacturing, indicating a potential improvement in profitability for the steel sector [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting specific companies within the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that iron water remains at a high level, with strong cost support. Although there is a long-term downward trend in iron water, the short-term decline is relatively slow. The supply of iron ore has not yet been released, solidifying the cost bottom in the short term [3][4]. - The overall production and inventory levels of steel are at low points year-on-year, with no significant supply-demand contradictions. The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover due to the optimization of crude steel supply and the gradual release of new iron ore production capacity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 27, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,090 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled prices stable at 3,240 CNY/ton, cold-rolled prices down 20 CNY to 3,490 CNY/ton, and medium plate prices down 20 CNY to 3,280 CNY/ton [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week. The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.1991 million tons, up 0.72 million tons from the previous week [2][3]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changed by +1 CNY/ton, +5 CNY/ton, and -21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Electric arc furnace steel saw a decrease of 6 CNY/ton in gross profit [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Suggested to pay attention to high-temperature alloy stocks: Fushun Special Steel [3][4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.34 CNY, PE at 19, rated as "Buy" - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.29 CNY, PE at 15, rated as "Buy" - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.37 CNY, PE at 11, rated as "Buy" [3].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue reached 10.918 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.42% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders, after deducting investment income from joint ventures, was 1.31 billion yuan, up 42.02% year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 2.882 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.67% year-on-year growth [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 0.375 billion yuan, an increase of 26.50% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Product Overview - The company's product categories include seamless pipes, welded pipes, composite pipes, fittings, and flanges [3] - High-end oil casing pipe production capacity and sales are steadily increasing due to new customer acquisition and application exploration [3] - The nuclear power product line includes various equipment piping and heat transfer tubes, with a focus on domestic production [3] - The composite pipe strategy emphasizes resource integration and optimization to enhance market competitiveness [3] Group 3: Future Investment Plans - The company aims to accelerate smart manufacturing and digital transformation, focusing on high-end material R&D and intelligent production lines [4] - Investment will prioritize high-value-added areas, particularly in high-temperature, corrosion-resistant, and high-performance alloy materials [4] - Global market expansion for composite pipes, alloy materials, and fittings will be a key focus, maximizing business synergy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates high-quality and high-speed growth, with significant stock price outperformance due to excellent expectation management, despite its PE valuation remaining within the 13-15X range [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Over the past decade, the company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% in sales, 14.2% in revenue, and 22.3% in net profit attributable to the parent company [1] - The company has outperformed the CSI 300 ETF in stock price performance over the last five years, indicating strong market expectations [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - There are concerns regarding the potential decline in demand for the company's products in the oil and gas sector, which is projected to account for approximately 63% of revenue in 2024 [1] - The company’s products, including stainless steel pipes and nickel-based alloy pipes, are primarily targeted at deep-sea and acidic oil and gas markets, which are expected to grow due to increasing global resource extraction [1] Group 3: Growth Potential - The company is positioned to evolve into a nickel-based materials platform, with potential applications in aerospace and nuclear power sectors, indicating further growth opportunities [2] - The company has established a high-level alloy company to ensure the supply of high-end nickel-based materials and has introduced an academic expert to enhance its R&D capabilities [2] Group 4: Business Model - The management adopts a long-term, high-end, and outward-looking strategy, aiming to build a sustainable business model [2] - The company maintains a low-leverage strategy, which is expected to enhance revenue from high-value, high-tech products, and increase cash returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [2] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share of 1.75, 1.93, and 2.14 yuan for the years 2025-2027 [2] - Using the DCF method, the target price is set at 32.36 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [2]

久立特材 002318.SZ 公司研究 | 深度报告 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年06月13日） | 24.14 元 | | 目标价格 | 32.36 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 25.52/17.4 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 97,717/95,476 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 23,589 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 钢铁 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 06 月 15 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 0.63 | -0.21 | 8.1 | 5.38 | | 相对表现% | 0.88 | 0.61 | 9.31 | -4.21 | | 沪深 300% | -0.25 | -0.82 | -1.21 | 9.59 | 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB ...

Company Overview - Zhejiang Jiuli Special Materials Co., Ltd. specializes in the research and production of industrial stainless steel and special alloy pipes, bars, wires, bimetallic composite pipes, and related fittings [1] Stock Performance - Jiuli Special Materials has experienced a decline for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -2.77% [1] - The company's stock has shown a year-to-date return of 2.47%, ranking 22nd out of 59 in its category [2] Shareholder Information - GF Fund's Guangfa Stable Growth Mixed A is among the top ten shareholders of Jiuli Special Materials and has increased its holdings in the first quarter of this year [1] Fund Manager Profile - The fund manager of Guangfa Stable Growth Mixed A is Fu Youxing, who has extensive experience in fund management and holds a master's degree in economics [4][5] - Fu Youxing has managed various funds since 2013 and currently oversees multiple funds at GF Fund Management Co., Ltd. [6] Fund Performance Comparison - The fund's performance in recent periods includes a near-term return of -0.15% over the past week and a 2.20% return over the past six months, compared to an average of 0.60% and -3.26% for the CSI 300 index respectively [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Gao Yi Asset recently conducted research on a listed company, Jiu Li Special Materials, highlighting its growth in the nuclear power product market and plans for global expansion [1] - Jiu Li Special Materials emphasized its position as a major global supplier and its increased investment in R&D for nuclear-grade products following the acquisition of EBK [1] - The company aims to enhance its market competitiveness through organizational optimization, brand improvement, and customer recognition [1] Group 2 - Future capital expenditures will focus on smart manufacturing and digital transformation, with investments in high-end material R&D and intelligent production lines [1] - The company plans to balance ordinary and high-end products to increase product added value and international market share [1] - Key factors for improving profitability include technological innovation, product structure optimization, market expansion, and business synergy [1]

2 证券代码：002318 证券简称：久立特材 | | | 争力。同时，公司将以技术创新为核心动力，专注于研发 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 耐高温、耐腐蚀等创新材料，加速推进产品系列化和配套 | | | | | 化进程，从而提高产品附加值。此外，公司将持续拓宽国 | | | | | 际市场的渠道，致力于在全球范围内提升产品的市场份 | | | | | 额，确保公司的长远发展。 | | | 附件清单 | | | 无 | | 日期 | 月 7 | 6 日 | 2025 年 | 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 3 编号：106 | | | √特定对象调研□ 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □ 媒体采访□业绩说明会 | | | 类别 | □ 新闻发布会□ 路演活动 | | | | □ 现场参观 | | | | □ 其他 | | | 参与单位名称及 | 长江证券、东方证券、广发基金、富国基金、博时基金、易方达 | | | | 基金、泰康资产、大成基金、中欧基金、高毅资产、安信基金、 | | | 人员姓名 | 南 ...

证券代码:002318 证券简称:久立特材 公告编号:2025-029 浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司 关于第三期员工持股计划出售完毕暨终止的公告 1 在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于第三期员工持股计划非交易过 户完成暨回购股份处理完成的公告》（公告编号：2022-049）。 3、本员工持股计划第一个锁定期于2023年9月29日届满，可解锁分配的权益 份额占本员工持股计划持有权益总额的30%，对应的标的股票数量为504.00万股， 占公司总股本的0.52%。具体内容详见公司于2023年9月29日在巨潮资讯网（ww w.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于第三期员工持股计划第一个锁定期届满的提示性 公告》（公告编号：2023-062）。 4、本员工持股计划第二个锁定期于2024年5月29日届满，可解锁分配的权益 份额占本员工持股计划持有权益总额的30%，对应的标的股票数量为504.00万股， 占公司总股本的0.52%。具体内容详见公司于2024年5月29日在巨潮资讯网（ww w.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于第三期员工持股计划第二个锁定期届满的提示性 公告》（公告编号： ...