成本端：铁矿石：截至2025年7月18日，澳洲粉矿日照港62%Fe价格指数759.4元/湿吨， 周环比上升3.29%，同比下降7.66%；印度粉矿青岛港61%Fe价格715.4元/湿吨，周环比上升 5.14%，同比下降1.46%；截至2025年7月11日，19个港口澳洲&巴西铁矿石发货量2498.3万 吨，周环比上升3.33%，同比上升1.01%；45个港口铁矿到港量2662.1万吨，周环比上升 7.17%，同比下降7.10%。废钢&铸造生铁：截至2025年7月18日，废钢综合绝对价格指数 2372.81元/吨，周环比上升0.03%，同比下降14.93%；铸造生铁综合绝对价格指数2788.8元/ 吨，周环比上升1.13%，同比下降16.08%。焦煤&焦炭：截至2025年7月18日，低硫主焦煤价 格指数1239.54元/吨，周环比上升6.22%，同比下降35.22%；唐山一级冶金焦汇总价格1482 元/吨，周环比上升1.51%，同比下降37.20%；230家独立焦化厂产能利用率72.9%，周环比 上升0.18pct，同比下降0.91pct；独立焦化企业：吨焦利润-43元/吨，周环比亏损减少。 价格端：截至202 ...

钢铁周报 20250720 稳增长方案即将出台，钢铁产能有望优化 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格上涨。截至 7 月 18 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3270 元/吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3430 元/吨， 较上周升 20 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3380 元/吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3730 元/吨，较上周升 50 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3360 元 /吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市 场价格上涨，废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润震荡。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-19 元/吨，-7 元/吨和+7 元/吨。短流程方面，本 周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+11 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 7 月 18 日，五大钢材产量下降，总库存环比下降。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 868 万吨，环比降 4.53 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比减 4.45 万吨，板材产量周环比降 0.08 万吨，螺纹 ...

2025.07. 19 本文字数：3378，阅读时长大约5分钟 情况真的是这样吗？第一财经记者查阅了中日主要钢铁企业2024年的财务报告，发现日本制铁在去 年一年的归母净利润为3502亿日元（约合人民币 169亿元 ）。 而在2024年，中国最赚钱的前五大上市钢铁企业，净利润分别为73.62亿元（宝钢股份），51.26 亿元（中信特钢），22.61亿元（南钢股份），20.32亿元（华菱钢铁），14.9亿元（久立特材）。 这意味着，中国前四家最赚钱的上市钢企2024年的净利润之和，不敌日本制铁一家。 记者还发现，2021年宝钢股份曾是全球最盈利的钢企，当时净利润高达 236.32亿 元，但最近几 年，宝钢依然是中国最赚钱的钢企，但利润也在逐年下滑，2024年的净利润只有日本制铁的四成。 日本制铁则从2018年亏损的泥潭中爬出，不仅利润恢复增长，还收购了美国钢铁，目标是10年后成 为"全球第一"。 中日钢铁企业竞争格局变化的背后，是国内钢铁行业产能过剩，价格内卷，以及技术水平不断提高交 织的现实。如今，"内卷"已经从国内拓展到了国际市场，而国内一些钢厂和相关监管部门，则在为 真正竞争力的提高作出改变。 利润差距来 ...

截至7月17日，中泰红利量化选股股票发起A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为4.66%，位于同类可比基金93/110；近半年复权单位净值增长率为3.23%，位于 同类可比基金97/110；近一年复权单位净值增长率为8.37%，位于同类可比基金92/110。 通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中的分位数。 AI基金中泰红利量化选股股票发起A（021167）披露2025年二季报，第二季度基金利润6.93万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0058元。报告期内，基金净 值增长率为0.58%，截至二季度末，基金规模为1224.75万元。 该基金属于标准股票型基金。截至7月17日，单位净值为1.066元。基金经理是邹巍，目前管理6只基金。其中，截至7月17日，中泰中证500指数增强A近一年 复权单位净值增长率最高，达22.53%；中泰稳固周周购12周滚动债A最低，为2.37%。 基金管理人在二季报中表示，作为一只基本依据客观指标选股的量化基金，本基金本季度在投资策略上未作调整。在构建股票池时，我们依据股息率、历史 波动率以及历年股息率的稳定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65, up 0.27% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.45% [2][4] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious with a focus on the electric power sector, which has shown strength recently [4][11] Economic Indicators - In the first half of 2025, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [18][19] - The total value of exports was 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% to 8.79 trillion yuan [19][20] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 12.92 trillion yuan in RMB loans during the same period [20][21] Industry Dynamics - The EVTank report indicates that in 2024, Chinese companies dominated the global high-rate battery market, occupying eight out of the top ten positions [30] - The construction of the largest 750 kV ring network project in China has been completed, enhancing power supply capabilities in the Xinjiang region [34] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a transformation with efforts to reduce "involution" and improve overall market conditions [62] Company Performance - KingMed Diagnostics (603882.SH) is expected to report a net loss of 0.65 billion to 0.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 0.90 billion yuan in the previous year [36] - Zhongji United (605305.SH) anticipates a net profit of 0.25 billion to 0.30 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 78.02% to 113.63% year-on-year [37] - JiuLi Special Materials (002318.SZ) is set to enhance its production capabilities with a new high-tech seamless steel pipe production line [40] Financial Performance - Youfu Co., Ltd. (002427.SZ) expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a net profit forecast of 10 million to 15 million yuan [44] - MiaoKe LanDuo (60882.SH) projects a net profit increase of 56% to 89% for the first half of 2025, driven by rising cheese product sales [46] - Shengyi Technology (688183.SH) anticipates a staggering net profit growth of 432% to 471% for the same period, attributed to strategic product optimization [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Core Viewpoint - The high-performance materials industry in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, market demand, and technological innovation, becoming a crucial pillar for economic stability. The industry is expected to reach a total output value of 8.48 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth for 14 consecutive years, with a market size projected to be 8.78 trillion yuan [1][10]. Group 1: Industry Definition and Classification - High-performance materials are defined as newly emerged materials with superior properties or special functions, or traditional materials that have significantly improved performance or gained new functions. They are essential for extreme environments and high-end applications, primarily used in aerospace, energy, electronics, medical, and defense sectors. The main categories include advanced basic materials, key strategic materials, and frontier new materials [1][12]. Group 2: Development Environment and Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to promote the research and development of high-performance materials, recognizing them as a foundational and strategic industry. Key policies include encouraging foreign investment in new materials and prioritizing the development of advanced materials such as graphene and biodegradable materials [5][6]. Group 3: Current Industry Status - The high-performance materials industry in China has evolved from a weak foundation to a robust sector, with expectations for future development to focus on intelligence and sustainability, integrating high technology with emerging industries [7][23]. Group 4: Industry Chain - The industry chain for high-performance materials includes upstream sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, rare earths, petrochemical products, and polymers; midstream focuses on R&D and production; and downstream applications span new information technology, renewable energy, automotive, home appliances, medical, environmental protection, aerospace, and rail transportation [12][14]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by competition among foreign enterprises, large state-owned enterprises, and private companies. Foreign firms dominate the high-end market, while domestic companies primarily serve the mid-range market. Notable companies include Wanhua Chemical, Ganfeng Lithium, Hengli Petrochemical, and North Rare Earth [16][18]. Group 6: Key Enterprises - Major players in the high-performance materials sector include: - Wanhua Chemical, which operates globally and focuses on various chemical and new material sectors [17][19]. - Ganfeng Lithium, which covers the entire lithium battery supply chain from resource extraction to battery manufacturing [18]. - Hengli Petrochemical, recognized for its extensive production capabilities in petrochemicals and new materials [21]. - North Rare Earth, which has established a significant production base for rare earth materials [18]. Group 7: Future Development Trends - The high-performance materials industry is transitioning from self-sufficiency in low-end products to independent R&D of mid-to-high-end products, with increasing domestic competitiveness. The rapid development of emerging industries like renewable energy and smart manufacturing is driving innovation in high-performance materials, leading to new application scenarios and a promising market outlook [23][25].

Core Viewpoint - The supercritical power generation concept has seen a 2.20% increase, ranking 7th among concept sectors, with significant gains from several stocks within the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - 72 stocks within the supercritical power generation sector experienced gains, with Huayin Power, YN Energy, and Huadian Liaoning reaching the daily limit up [1]. - Notable stock performances include: - Guangdong Power A: +8.05% - Gan Energy: +7.45% - Jiantou Energy: +6.59% [1][5]. - The stocks with the largest declines include: - Shengde Xintai: -3.28% - ST Huaxi: -1.82% - Jiuli Special Materials: -1.59% [1][7]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The supercritical power generation sector attracted a net inflow of 544 million yuan, with 41 stocks receiving net inflows [2][3]. - The top stocks by net inflow include: - Rongfa Nuclear Power: 433.42 million yuan - Huadian International: 84.74 million yuan - Jingneng Power: 82.74 million yuan [2][3]. - The net inflow ratios for leading stocks are: - Inner Mongolia Huadian: 18.31% - Jingneng Power: 17.48% - Huadian Energy: 15.44% [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights the steel industry's two main contradictions: weak demand and strong costs, with the industry entering its fourth year of a downward cycle in 2025. The effective demand has significantly decreased, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to a 42.9% drop in demand for steel used in real estate from 377 million tons in 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024 [6][18][25]. - The report anticipates a marginal rebound in the steel sector due to weakening costs and resilient demand, driven by a decline in coking coal prices and an expected increase in iron ore supply [6][37][45]. Demand and Cost Analysis - Weak demand is characterized by insufficient effective demand, making it easier to maintain volume than prices. The real estate sector's demand for steel has plummeted, contributing to a significant overall decline in steel prices [6][18][25]. - Strong costs are attributed to tight supply of raw materials like iron ore and coking coal, which have severely squeezed steel profits. The profit share of steel in the industrial chain has dropped to 16%, significantly below the historical average of 28% [6][31][34]. Supply-Side Strategies - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing excess capacity in the steel industry, which is expected to stabilize steel prices and improve profitability for steel companies. A potential reduction of 30 million tons in crude steel production in 2025 could lead to a price increase of 229 yuan per ton for rebar [6][8][37]. - Long-term capacity reduction is expected to be gradual, with approximately 20% of capacity facing compliance challenges, particularly among small private enterprises, which may face pressure to exit the market starting in 2026 [6][8][37]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-end steel products, such as Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, which are expected to maintain profitability and enhance shareholder returns through capital expenditure and asset optimization [6][8][37]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in valuation and performance for companies with low price-to-book ratios, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel, as well as opportunities in state-owned enterprise reforms and mergers and acquisitions [6][8][37].