Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.46% on October 24, with Xining Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the special steel sector included: - Xianglou New Materials (301160) with a closing price of 63.21, up 6.70% and a trading volume of 60,100 shares, totaling 376 million yuan [1] - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) closed at 8.70, up 4.82% with a trading volume of 313,900 shares, totaling 270 million yuan [1] - Decliners included: - Xining Special Steel (600117) closed at 3.15, down 3.37% with a trading volume of 540,600 shares, totaling 171 million yuan [2] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) closed at 4.05, down 1.70% with a trading volume of 448,500 shares, totaling 182 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 14.53 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 90.53 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) had a net inflow of 49.17 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 44.99 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) recorded a net inflow of 14.33 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 22.01 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The special steel sector increased by 0.23% on October 22, with Fangda Special Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.61, down 0.62% [1] Stock Performance - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.57, up 2.77% with a trading volume of 315,700 shares and a turnover of 175 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) at 35.29, up 2.20% [1] - Fushun Special Steel (665009) at 5.30, up 1.92% [1] - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) at 8.48, up 1.44% [1] - Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.28, up 1.23% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 34.18 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 36.31 million yuan [2][3] - The capital flow for key stocks includes: - Fushun Special Steel with a net inflow of 28.63 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jiu Li Special Materials (002318) with a net inflow of 16.07 million yuan [3] - Fangda Special Steel with a net inflow of 6.93 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Li Special Materials has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 15.63% and a recent market capitalization of 25.39 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiu Li Special Materials reported a revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.39% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 828 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.48% [2] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 16.03% to 20,600, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 13.80% to 46,427 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.468 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.802 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Market Activity - On October 22, Jiu Li Special Materials' stock price rose by 2.16% to 25.98 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 184 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.75% [1] - The stock experienced a net inflow of 9.1018 million yuan from main funds, with significant buying activity from large orders [1] Business Overview - Jiu Li Special Materials, established on January 8, 2004, and listed on December 11, 2009, specializes in the research, production, and sales of industrial stainless steel pipes and special alloy materials [1] - The company's revenue composition includes seamless pipes (37.97%), composite pipes (33.57%), welded pipes (13.44%), alloy materials (6.25%), and other products (5.54%) [1]

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, with a notable increase in apparent consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][3] - Despite the positive demand trends, profitability in the steel sector has declined, with significant drops in gross margins for key products, suggesting ongoing cost pressures [2] - The supply side is expected to continue its contraction, supported by government policies aimed at reducing production and promoting a balance between supply and demand [3] Demand and Supply Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.7541 million tons, up by 1.2398 million tons week-on-week, with construction materials and sheet products also showing increases [1] - Total steel production was 8.5695 million tons, down by 0.0636 million tons, while total inventory decreased to 15.8226 million tons, down by 0.1846 million tons, maintaining a low level [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remained stable at 84.27%, while electric furnace operating rates increased slightly, indicating a mixed response in production capabilities [1] Profitability Trends - The average gross profit for rebar fell to 111.6 CNY per ton, down by 34.3 CNY per ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it dropped to 21.6 CNY per ton, down by 67.6 CNY per ton [2] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies decreased to 55.41%, down by 0.87% week-on-week, reflecting the challenges faced by the industry [2] Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but stable growth is anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing, which may support overall steel demand [3] - The government has introduced policies to control production, aiming to phase out inefficient capacities and support advanced enterprises, which may lead to a quicker recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel (600019.SH) and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), are recommended for their competitive advantages [5] - Low-valuation, high-dividend steel companies like CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) and Yongjin Shares (603995.SH) are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [5] - The report suggests a positive outlook for upstream resource companies, recommending firms like Hebei Steel Resources (000923.SZ) and Erdos (600295.SH) due to their long-term advantages [5]

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Li Special Materials has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 15.68% and a market capitalization of 25.397 billion yuan as of October 21 [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiu Li Special Materials achieved a revenue of 6.105 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.39% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 828 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.48% [2] Stock and Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 16.03% to 20,600, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 13.80% to 46,427 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.468 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.802 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Major Shareholders - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 44.6371 million shares, an increase of 1.8334 million shares from the previous period [3] - The eighth-largest circulating shareholder, Fu Guo Xing Yuan Preferred Mixed A, holds 15.2453 million shares, unchanged from the previous period [3] - The ninth-largest circulating shareholder, Guangfa Steady Growth Mixed A, holds 12.5 million shares, a decrease of 800,000 shares from the previous period [3] Business Overview - Jiu Li Special Materials, established on January 8, 2004, and listed on December 11, 2009, specializes in the research, production, and sales of industrial stainless steel pipes and special alloy materials [1] - The company's main revenue sources include seamless pipes (37.97%), composite pipes (33.57%), welded pipes (13.44%), alloy materials (6.25%), other products (5.54%), and pipe fittings (3.23%) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [3][8]. - The report highlights a week-on-week increase in steel consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting a positive trend in demand recovery post-holiday [5][12]. - Profit margins for steel production have decreased, with average gross margins for rebar and hot-rolled coils declining significantly [5][42]. Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - Last week, the price of Shanghai rebar fell by 50 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. Hot-rolled coil prices dropped by 120 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.53% [8]. - Total inventory of major steel products decreased to 15.82 million tons, down 1.15% week-on-week [12]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 780 CNY/ton, while futures prices fell by 24.5 CNY/ton to 771 CNY/ton [51]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 142.78 million tons, an increase of 1.81% [53]. Production and Profitability - The total steel production last week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 6.36 million tons week-on-week [36]. - The average gross margin for rebar was 111.6 CNY/ton, down 34.3 CNY/ton, while for hot-rolled coils, it was 21.6 CNY/ton, down 67.6 CNY/ton [42]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for steel will stabilize, with a gradual recovery expected in the construction and manufacturing sectors, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5][8]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing inefficient production capacity and promoting high-quality development [5].

Core Insights - The special steel sector experienced a 0.5% increase on October 20, with Jiuli Special Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Special Steel Sector Performance - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 25.47, with a rise of 2.87% and a trading volume of 160,300 shares, totaling a transaction value of 406 million yuan [1] - Xianglou New Materials (301160) closed at 58.88, up 2.54%, with a trading volume of 27,300 shares and a transaction value of 162 million yuan [1] - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) closed at 34.33, increasing by 1.18%, with a trading volume of 12,900 shares and a transaction value of 44.03 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) closed at 5.16, up 0.58%, with a trading volume of 207,700 shares and a transaction value of 107 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.21 (+0.31%), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) at 4.04 (+0.25%), and Jinzou Pipeline (002443) at 7.87 (+0.13%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 44.69 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 37.27 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with main funds showing interest while retail investors withdrew [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [4][6][72] Core Viewpoints - The construction demand is under pressure while raw material prices remain relatively strong, leading to a maintained "Overweight" rating for the industry [6] - Steel demand has shown a significant week-on-week increase, primarily driven by the resumption of work after the National Day holiday, although construction material demand remains weak year-on-year [6][10] - Steel inventory has increased week-on-week, with hot-rolled steel experiencing the most accumulation [6][15] - Iron output has decreased week-on-week but has increased year-on-year, indicating resilience in demand supported by the manufacturing sector [6][37] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, while the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.22%. The steel sector declined by 2.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.21 percentage points [10] - Black futures prices have decreased, with rebar closing at 3037 CNY/ton, down 66 CNY/ton (2.13%), and hot-rolled coil at 3204 CNY/ton, down 81 CNY/ton (2.47%) [13][38] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased year-on-year, totaling 8.5922 million tons, although it increased by 1.5131 million tons week-on-week [15] - Total steel inventory rose to 21.7508 million tons, an increase of 389.33 thousand tons year-on-year [25] - The iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4095 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.0059 million tons week-on-week but an increase of 0.659 million tons year-on-year [37] Profitability and Pricing - The profitability per ton of steel has weakened, with various steel products showing fluctuating profits, such as rebar at -15 CNY/ton and hot-rolled steel at -8 CNY/ton [46] - The profit ratio among 247 steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week [47] Downstream Demand - Domestic cement dispatches fell to 2.5285 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 726.5 thousand tons [58] - PVC production increased to 467.38 thousand tons, up 1.4293 thousand tons year-on-year [58]

Core Viewpoint - Jiu Li Special Materials has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 12.43%, despite a recent decline over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 20, Jiu Li Special Materials' stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 25.26 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.58 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.66% [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 24.683 billion CNY [1] - The stock has experienced a decline of 3.66% over the last five trading days, but has increased by 10.40% over the last 20 days and 8.60% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiu Li Special Materials reported a revenue of 6.105 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.39% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 828 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.48% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Jiu Li Special Materials increased by 16.03% to 20,600 [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 13.80% to 46,427 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.468 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.802 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Group 4: Major Shareholders - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 44.637 million shares, an increase of 1.8334 million shares from the previous period [3] - The eighth-largest circulating shareholder, Fu Guo Xing Yuan Preferred 12-Month Holding Mixed A, holds 15.2453 million shares, unchanged from the previous period [3] - The ninth-largest circulating shareholder, Guangfa Steady Growth Mixed A, holds 12.5 million shares, a decrease of 800,000 shares from the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a shift in focus from demand to supply as countries enter a mature industrialization phase. The overall economy is expected to remain stable, with potential for recovery in the steel sector [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of government fiscal policies in influencing trade balances and commodity prices, particularly gold, which is seen as a counter to the U.S. dollar's credit [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for steel mills to implement production cuts effectively to stabilize the market and improve valuations of certain companies within the industry [2][4]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has slightly decreased to 2.409 million tons, with a decline in rebar and hot-rolled coil production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is reported at 90.3%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [16]. - The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [23]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has rebounded by 16.5% week-on-week, although it remains down 2.0% year-on-year [47]. - Rebar demand has shown a significant increase of 43.5% week-on-week, while overall building material transactions have decreased by 6.3% [37][38]. Price and Profitability - The report notes a slight decline in the current steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index down by 1.5% week-on-week [69]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled products are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [70]. Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) [8] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) [8] - Baosteel (宝钢股份) [8] - New Steel (新钢股份) [8] - Jiuli Special Materials (久立特材) [8] - Yongjin Co., Ltd. (甬金股份) [8] - Changbao Steel (常宝股份) [8] - Wujin Stainless Steel (武进不锈) [2][8].