Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][5][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the beef cycle and recommends investments in leading companies in the livestock sector, particularly in beef and raw milk, which are expected to experience a positive resonance in 2025 [3][4]. - The pet industry is highlighted as a growth sector benefiting from demographic changes, while the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to gain from the recovery in aquaculture [3][4]. - The report notes that the pig industry shows insufficient expansion willingness, but the overall market conditions are expected to remain stable through 2025, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3][4]. - Poultry production is expected to maintain low volatility, with white chicken consumption gradually increasing and yellow chicken likely to benefit from improved domestic demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Livestock - **Pork**: The average price of live pigs is 14.16 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.22%. The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 446 CNY/head, down 4.98% week-on-week [1][13]. - **Beef**: The domestic beef market price is 59.35 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week but a significant increase of 27.63% year-on-year [1][15]. - **Poultry**: The price of broiler chicks is 1.23 CNY/bird, down 43% week-on-week, while the price of eggs in major production areas is 2.90 CNY/jin, up 9.85% week-on-week but down 35.27% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed and Raw Materials - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price is 3024 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1%. The report indicates strong support for supply and demand in the medium to long term [2][3]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn spot price is 2415 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The price in Guangxi is 5980 CNY/ton, down 0.17% week-on-week, with attention on import rhythms and crude oil price fluctuations [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Beef**: Guangming Meat Industry - **Pets**: Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Biological - **Feed**: Haida Group - **Pork**: Dekang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, and others - **Poultry**: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3][4].

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The pig prices are expected to rebound unexpectedly in the second half of 2025 due to easing supply pressure and seasonal consumption peaks, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like Muyuan and Wens [1][2] - The average price of live pigs from the beginning of 2025 to June 16 is approximately 14.81 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of about 4% [12][14] - Major pig farming companies have seen a reduction in breeding costs, with Muyuan's cost dropping to around 12.2 yuan/kg, indicating improved profitability potential [12][14] Group 2: Aquaculture and Feed Industry - The aquaculture feed industry is expected to benefit from rising fish prices, with a notable increase in grass carp prices by approximately 10% since March 2024 [37][39] - Haida Group is highlighted for its strong competitive advantages and potential for growth in both domestic and overseas feed markets, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 20% for overseas feed sales from 2025 to 2030 [38][39] - The domestic feed industry is anticipated to recover due to improved profitability in the pig farming sector and a rebound in aquaculture [37][38] Group 3: Pet Industry - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth driven by a younger demographic of pet owners, with 90s and 00s generation pet owners accounting for over 66.8% of the market by 2024 [45][47] - The average annual spending on pets in China is currently at 2419 yuan, indicating room for growth compared to international standards [46][47] - The market share of domestic pet brands is increasing, with the top five domestic brands reaching a combined market share of 13.9% in 2024, while foreign brands are declining [54][55] Group 4: Snack Retail Industry - The snack retail industry is transitioning towards a dual oligopoly structure, with leading brands like Mingming and Wancheng expected to capture significant market shares of 34% and 30% respectively by May 2025 [4][39] - The industry has substantial room for expansion, with an estimated ceiling of 67,000 stores, indicating a potential for 1.4 times current capacity [4][39] - The profitability of leading snack retail companies is projected to improve due to economies of scale and enhanced bargaining power with suppliers [4][39]

金十图示：2025年06月24日（周二）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：成分股大面积飘红，保险、证券、汽车整车涨 势较大 -0.10(-1.15%) +0.02(+0.47%) -0.04(-0.71%) 保险 100 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 08 3980.16亿市值 3532.59亿市值 10341.59亿市值 14.29亿成交额 58.74亿成交额 11.14亿成交额 56.79 36.72 9.00 +0.83(+2.31%) +1.69(+3.07%) +0.36(+4.17%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18054.07亿市值 2188.49亿市值 4648.23亿市值 52.29亿成交额 11.77亿成交额 21.39亿成交额 1437.20 179.39 119.75 +17.20(+1.21%) +1.68(+0.95%) +1.47(+1.24%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2328.04亿市值 2535.01亿市值 3187.60亿市值 17.03亿成交额 53.14亿成交额 26.75亿成交额 137.14 435.82 607.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that the pig farming industry is expected to enter a downward price cycle in 2025, but due to limited production capacity growth, normal profitability is anticipated. With the implementation of policies by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), pig prices in 2026 may exceed expectations, benefiting companies with excellent cost control [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The production capacity recovery is notably slow, with pig prices currently in a downward cycle. By the 23rd week of 2025, the national average pig price was 14.78 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% and a decline of 10.8% from the beginning of the year [1]. - The average weight of pigs in 2025 is significantly high, with the national average at 128.28 kg, which is the highest level since 2022, showing an increase compared to the same period in previous years [2]. - The NDRC's policies are expected to have a lasting impact, with a projected decline in the number of breeding sows and a decrease in pig weights, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in pig prices in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - The fundamentals of listed pig companies are continuously improving, with a total output of 86.99 million pigs from 20 listed companies in the first five months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31% [4]. - The breeding costs for listed pig companies are on a downward trend, with major players like Muyuan, Wens, and Shennong leading the industry in cost efficiency. For instance, Muyuan's cost per kilogram for fattening pigs decreased from 13.1 yuan in January to 12.2 yuan in May 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is entering a weak pig cycle and will focus on quality improvement rather than expansion, while also seeking international development opportunities [2][5]. Group 1: Quality Improvement and Cost Reduction - As of the end of 2024, the company will have a breeding capacity of approximately 81 million heads per year, with 71.6 million heads marketed in 2014 [3]. - The company’s breeding costs have been decreasing, reaching around 12.2 yuan/kg in May, a decrease of nearly 0.2 yuan/kg month-on-month, primarily due to improved production performance [3]. - The company aims to achieve a cost target of 12 yuan/kg this year, with a significant reduction in costs already realized since the initial target of reducing costs by 600 yuan when the cost was around 16 yuan/kg [3][4]. Group 2: Feed and Technology Innovations - The company has been promoting low-soybean meal feed formulation technology, with the first phase of its synthetic amino acid project having an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons and currently operating at 80% capacity [4]. - The synthetic amino acids can replace soybeans, acting as a stabilizer against rising soybean prices [4]. Group 3: International Expansion - The company has initiated its international development strategy starting in 2024, with Southeast Asia identified as the first target market [5][6]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Joint Stock Company, marking the first step in its overseas development [6]. - The company plans to leverage its technology, equipment, and management capabilities to provide production capacity output, including designing pig houses and training employees [6][7]. - The company has submitted an application for listing H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international presence and attract global investors [7][8].

Group 1: Core Views - The core focus of Muyuan Foods is on internationalization, with plans for an IPO in Hong Kong and collaborations with Vietnamese companies [1][2] - The purpose of the Hong Kong IPO is to enhance the company's credibility in the global market rather than to raise funds due to a lack of capital [1][3][7] - The company aims to leverage its experience from the African swine fever crisis to achieve excess returns in overseas markets [1][8] Group 2: IPO Strategy - Muyuan Foods submitted its H-share application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 27, with the IPO expected to occur in the fourth quarter of this year [2][3] - The company emphasizes that completing the IPO is more important than the amount of funds raised, as it will facilitate international business development [5][7] - The IPO proceeds will be used for international sourcing, talent acquisition, and partnerships with leading overseas companies [7] Group 3: Industry Insights - The current characteristics of the pig cycle are described as "weak cycle, narrow fluctuations, and slow changes," indicating a shift in market dynamics [17][18] - The company believes that the cost of pig farming can be reduced to around 10 yuan per kilogram, with current costs at 12.2 yuan per kilogram [20] - The focus on cost reduction is primarily driven by disease prevention, with smart technology playing a crucial role in this effort [20] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Muyuan Foods is investing in artificial intelligence and digitalization to enhance operational efficiency, aiming for a future of 24-hour unmanned operations [14][16] - The company is exploring overseas markets by exporting advanced equipment and technology, with Vietnam being the first target [8][11] - The revenue from smart equipment is currently low but is expected to grow significantly as the company expands its technological capabilities [10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that the sentiment in the pork market is supporting an upward shift in pork prices, with the average price for external three-line pigs at 14.20 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.43% [2][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing soybean and oilseed production, with a focus on enhancing yield through advanced agricultural practices and the promotion of genetically modified varieties [1][11] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose, but medium to long-term projections indicate that pork prices may exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [2][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss the production and demand situation for soybeans and oilseeds, emphasizing the need to enhance production capacity and implement key measures for yield improvement [1][11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, and recommends companies with a strong first-mover advantage in the seed industry such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of external three-line pigs is reported at 14.20 CNY/kg, with a significant increase in slaughter volume and consumer demand noted [2][12] - The report indicates that the number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, and the profitability of self-breeding operations has turned positive, suggesting a potential for recovery in the swine sector [2][12] - Recommended stocks in the swine farming sector include companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and DeKang Agriculture [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2412.94 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [26] - Wheat: The average price is 2440.61 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.46% [29] - Soybeans: The average price is 3946.32 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.21% [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14760.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [45] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is reported at 2.69 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [51] - Vitamin E prices have decreased by 10.02% to 80.80 CNY/kg [51][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating it is expected to outperform the overall market [4][5][52]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the pig farming sector, with expectations for a re-evaluation of pig prices due to ongoing market dynamics. It emphasizes the importance of quality pig farming enterprises and suggests focusing on the profitability of breeding support and pet food sectors [4][5]. - During the "618" shopping festival, the pet food industry showed resilience, with leading brands performing well. The report suggests that the performance of top companies may exceed expectations throughout the year [4][5]. - The report notes that pig prices have consistently outperformed market expectations since the beginning of 2025, with futures prices remaining lower than spot prices. It anticipates a slow recovery in production capacity and highlights the potential for profit realization in low-cost pig farming [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.1%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.5%. The top five gainers included Bangji Technology (up 24.7%) and Chenguang Biotech (up 13.4%), while the top five losers included Andeli (down 18.7%) and Zhongchong Co. (down 13.4%) [4][5][12]. Pig Farming - As of June 22, the average selling price of external three yuan pigs was 14.29 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2%. The report indicates that the average weight of market pigs decreased to 128.28 kg, down 0.54 kg from the previous week. The report suggests that the expectations of "reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and limiting breeding" may lead to a re-evaluation of pig prices in the second half of the year [4][5]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a significant drop in chick prices, with the average price of white feather broiler chicks at 1.72 yuan/chick, down 29.2% week-on-week. The average price of white feather broilers remained stable at 3.52 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 1.7% week-on-week [4][5]. Pet Food - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sales performance of pet food during the "618" shopping festival, with a year-on-year increase of 15% in e-commerce sales. The total sales for pet food reached 7.5 billion yuan, up from 5.5 billion yuan in the previous year, indicating a year-on-year growth of 36% [4][5]. Animal Health - The report highlights the recovery in vaccine sales, with a year-on-year increase of 23.02% in the number of veterinary vaccine batches issued in Q1 2025. It suggests that the profitability of breeding enterprises will drive the demand for vaccines and other products [4][5].

Group 1: Pet Economy - The pet economy continues to show high growth, with over 400 pet brands achieving sales growth of over 100% year-on-year during the "618" shopping festival [1] - The number of pet transaction users increased by 32% year-on-year, while new pet owners grew by 39% [1] - Top brands in various pet food categories include Royal Canin and Maffidi for cat and dog dry food, and Maffidi and Zeal for cat and dog snacks/wet food [1] Group 2: Pig Prices - The average price of external three yuan pigs rose to 14.22 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.43% [2] - The average price of piglets decreased to 31.85 yuan/kg, down 3.16% week-on-week [2] - The average weight of market pigs decreased slightly to 128.28 kg, while the inventory rate of frozen products increased to 14.04% [2] Group 3: Grain Prices - Prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat have increased, with corn averaging 2417.06 yuan/ton (up 0.47%), soybean meal at 3015.14 yuan/ton (up 1.59%), and wheat at 2441.67 yuan/ton (up 0.46%) [3] - Weather conditions and trade dynamics are influencing corn prices, while soybean meal prices are affected by supply concerns from the U.S. and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is expected to enter a long-term profit growth phase after inventory reduction, with recommended companies including Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Muyuan Foods [4] - The post-cycle sector is seeing a recovery in feed and veterinary demand, with companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biotech recommended [4] - The planting chain is showing positive fundamentals with rising grain prices, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and recommended companies including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4]

Core Viewpoint - The second listing of Muyuan Foods on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raises questions about the company's urgent need for capital, with a projected funding gap exceeding 60 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024 [1][2]. Financial Situation - The company's cash ratio for 2024 is only 0.2, indicating tight liquidity [2]. - As of the end of the first quarter, the company has interest-bearing debt exceeding 80 billion yuan, with short-term debt reaching 62.17 billion yuan, while cash on hand is only 23.566 billion yuan, resulting in a short-term debt funding gap of nearly 40 billion yuan [2]. - The minimum cash reserve required for daily operations is estimated at 20.2 billion yuan, leading to a funding gap of over 7 billion yuan when considering restricted cash [3][4]. Dividend Distribution - In 2024, Muyuan Foods plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 7.588 billion yuan, which is 45.38% of its net profit [5][7]. - The actual controller of the company will receive over 4 billion yuan from the cash dividends [8]. - The company has revised its dividend policy to distribute at least 40% of its distributable profits in cash from 2024 to 2026 [7]. Operational Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, a 24.43% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [5]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend, with revenue of 36.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%, and a net profit of 4.491 billion yuan, up 288.79% [5]. Market Position and Competition - Muyuan Foods has become the world's largest pig farming enterprise, with a market share increasing from 2.6% in 2021 to 5.6% in 2024 [9]. - The company's pig output increased from 6.12 million heads in 2022 to 7.16 million heads in 2024 [9]. - However, the cost advantage of Muyuan Foods appears to be narrowing as competitors like Wens Foodstuffs have improved their cost management [10]. Industry Trends - The pig price has recently dropped below the industry breakeven point, with prices reported at 14.24 yuan per kilogram, down 24.13% year-on-year [12]. - The number of breeding sows, which influences supply, remains above the normal level, indicating potential challenges for price recovery [13][14].