股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 基础化工/原材料 [ Table_Main[ 森ITnaf 麒bol]e 麟_Ti (tl 0e] [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 0 2984) 上次评级： 增持 23Q4业绩符合预期，海外项目有序推进 目 标 价 40.60 格： 上次预测： 40.60 公 —森麒麟 2023年报点评 当前价格： 31.38 司 钟浩(分析师) 陈传双(研究助理) 2024.03.01 更 021-38038445 021-38676675 zhonghao027638@gtjas.com chenchuanshuang027603@gtjas.com [交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 新 证书编号 S0880522120008 S0880123060038 52周内股价区间（元） 26.87-36.38 报 总市值（百万元） 23,183 告 本报告导读： 总股本/流通 A 股（百万 739/503 产销齐增，公司 23 年业绩延续高增长。公司在美国对泰国半钢终裁中拿到最低税 股流）通 B股/H股（百万股） 0/0 率，泰国工厂有望受益。公司海 ...

[Table_Header] 公司点评●化工行业 2024年 3月 1日 [Table_Title] [Table_StockCode] 23 年业绩创历史新高，全球化布局赋 森麒麟（002984.SZ） 能成长 [Table_InvestRank] 推荐 （维持评级） 核心观点： 分析师 [⚫T able事_S件um 公ma司ry发] 布 2023年年度报告，2023年实现营业收入 78.4亿元，同比增长 [任Ta文b坡le_ Authors] 24.6%；实现归母净利润 13.7亿元，同比增长 70.9%。其中，23Q4单季度实现 营业收入 21.0亿元，同比增长 36.2%、环比下降 4.8%；实现归母净利润 3.8亿 ：010-80927675 元，同比增长 170.1%、环比下降 3.1%。 ：renwenpo_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⚫ 产销放量叠加盈利能力回升，公司全年业绩创历史新高 2023 年轮胎行业 分析师登记编号：S0130520080001 整体经营形势全面复苏，叠加欧美经济面临高通胀压力，公司轮胎性价比、竞 争力凸显。泰国工厂（二期）600万条/年半钢胎、200 ...

森麒麟（002984.SZ）2023年报点评报告 全年业绩高速增长，未来成长性有望保持 2024年03月01日 ➢ 事件：2024 年 2 月 29 日，公司发布年报，2023 年公司实现营业总收入 推荐 维持评级 78.42亿元，同比增长24.63%；实现归母净利润13.69亿元，同比增长70.88%； 当前价格： 30.82元 实现扣非净利润13.05亿元，同比增长46.88%；其中2023Q4单季度实现营业 收入21.00亿元，同比增长36.15%，环比下降4.79%；实现归母净利润3.75亿 [Table_Author] 元，同比增长170.14%，环比下降3.11%；实现扣非净利润3.47亿元，同比增 长356.69%，环比下降7.18%。 ➢ 产品结构高端化助力公司保持较强的盈利能力。公司产品结构以17寸及以 上的大尺寸高性能乘用车、轻卡轮胎产品为主，近年来销售比例持续保持在60% 以上，为全球两家大尺寸高性能产品销售占比超60%的轮胎企业之一，轮辋尺寸 最大可达全球领先的 32 寸。因为更优越的舒适性和操控性等性能，大尺寸轮胎 分析师 刘海荣 的附加值更高，享有更高的溢价能力，随着公司大尺寸轮胎 ...

公司研 究 证 券研究 报 告 橡胶制品 2024年03月01日 森 麒麟（002984）2023年报点评 强 推 （维持） 目标价：43.04元 业绩高增，稳步扩产强化全球化竞争力 当前价：31.38元  事件：公司发布2023年年度报告，2023年实现营业收入78.42亿元，同比 华创证券研究所 +24.63%；实现归母净利润13.69亿元，同比+70.88%；实现扣非归母净利润 13.05亿元，同比+46.88%。其中，2023Q4实现营业收入21.00亿元，同比/ 证券分析师：杨晖 环比分别+36.2%/-4.8%；实现归母净利润3.75亿元，同比/环比分别+170.1%/- 3.1%；实现扣非归母净利润3.47亿元，同比/环比分别+356.7%/-7.2%。 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com  2023 年公司业绩实现高增长，主要来自于：1）2023 年度，此前集装箱紧 执业编号：S0360522050001 张、海运费及原材料价格上涨、海外轿车和轻卡轮胎库存高企等不利因素基 证券分析师：郑轶 本消除，年内中国轮胎行业整体经营形势全面复苏。特别是出口端实现较为 显著增长，据海关总署数据， ...

Financial Performance - Revenue in 2023 reached RMB 7,841,791,899.03, a year-on-year increase of 24.63%[13] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was RMB 1,368,509,094.38, up 70.88% compared to 2022[13] - Operating cash flow in 2023 surged to RMB 2,366,680,974.12, a 130.19% increase from the previous year[13] - Total assets at the end of 2023 were RMB 15,649,926,492.85, a 40.79% increase from 2022[13] - Equity attributable to shareholders at the end of 2023 was RMB 11,786,295,058.75, up 54.60% year-on-year[13] - The company's total revenue for 2023 reached 7,841,791,899.03 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.63%[49] - Domestic revenue accounted for 12.99% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 34.53%[49] - Export and overseas revenue accounted for 86.87% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 23.25%[49] - The gross profit margin for the tire business was 25.12%, an increase of 4.69% compared to the previous year[51] - Domestic revenue increased by 21.82% to 1,018,763,658.29 yuan, while export and overseas revenue grew by 25.61% to 6,812,361,378.53 yuan[52] - The company's raw material costs for tires accounted for 71.01% of total operating costs, amounting to 4,164,817,816.22 yuan, a 14.45% increase from the previous year[57] - Sales expenses increased by 20.28% to 187,694,499.39 yuan, while R&D expenses surged by 46.52% to 165,377,361.76 yuan[62] - R&D investment in 2023 increased by 58.75% to RMB 192.73 million, accounting for 2.46% of revenue, up 0.53 percentage points year-on-year[67] - Operating cash flow increased by 130.19% to RMB 2.37 billion, driven by higher sales revenue[68] - Investment cash flow decreased by 213.81% to RMB -3.02 billion, mainly due to capital expenditures for the Thailand Phase II and Morocco factory projects[68] - Financing cash flow increased by 482.06% to RMB 2.66 billion, reflecting significant growth in financing activities[68] - Net cash and cash equivalents increased by 375.52% to RMB 2.05 billion, indicating strong liquidity improvement[68] - Investment income amounted to RMB 105,197,546.36, accounting for 7.15% of total profit[71] - Monetary funds increased by 7.00% to RMB 3,893,867,319.27, representing 24.88% of total assets[72] - Inventory decreased by 6.23% to RMB 1,469,951,320.11, accounting for 9.39% of total assets[72] - Fixed assets increased to RMB 5,570,310,083.07, representing 35.59% of total assets, mainly due to the transfer of construction-in-progress to fixed assets[72] - The fair value of financial assets (excluding derivatives) increased to RMB 210,584,581.52, up from RMB 31,719,228.28 at the beginning of the period[75] - Total investment during the reporting period increased by 62.99% to RMB 969,287,410.63 compared to the same period last year[78] - The company invested RMB 667.15 million in the current reporting period for major non-equity investment projects, with a cumulative investment of RMB 3.19 billion[79] - The Thailand expansion project for 6 million high-performance semi-steel radial tires and 2 million high-performance all-steel radial tires has achieved 100% progress and generated RMB 420.29 million in cumulative收益[79] - The Spain project for 12 million high-performance passenger and light truck radial tires has a progress rate of 0.48% with no收益 generated yet[79] - The Morocco project for 6 million high-performance passenger and light truck radial tires has a progress rate of 16.76% with no收益 generated yet[79] - The company's total expected收益 from these projects is RMB 1.67 billion[79] - The company's securities investments resulted in a loss of RMB 4.04 million, with a total initial investment of RMB 21.43 million[81] - The company's derivative investments for hedging purposes amounted to RMB 230.55 million, with a total loss of RMB 5.03 million[82] - The company's foreign exchange options contracts accounted for 5.63% of the company's net assets at the end of the reporting period[82] - The company's total derivative investments accounted for 5.65% of the company's net assets at the end of the reporting period[82] - The company's actual损益 from hedging activities was RMB 93.67 million[82] - The company conducted commodity futures and foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks from raw material price fluctuations and exchange rate volatility, but the hedging did not achieve the expected results due to the impact of the "Russia-Ukraine conflict" and "Fed rate hikes"[83] - The company used its own funds for derivative investments and implemented strict risk control measures, including setting up a dedicated hedging account and monitoring market risks closely[83] - The company's commodity futures hedging focused on rubber futures contracts, which are highly transparent and actively traded, ensuring fair value reflection[83] - The company's foreign exchange hedging primarily involved euro forward contracts, with valuations based on bank notifications[83] - The company's independent directors affirmed that the hedging activities were well-managed and risk-controlled, with robust internal systems in place[84] - The company did not engage in any speculative derivative investments during the reporting period[85] - In 2020, the company raised a total of 1.30824 billion yuan through a public stock offering, with a net amount of 1.209127 billion yuan[86] - As of the reporting period, the company had used 1.1190211 billion yuan of the raised funds, with 102.0472 million yuan remaining unused and deposited in a dedicated account[86] - The company raised a total of RMB 6.307 billion through various financing activities, including RMB 2.198 billion from the issuance of convertible bonds in 2021 and RMB 2.8 billion from a private placement in 2023[88] - As of December 31, 2023, the company had RMB 1.02 billion in unused funds from its 2020 IPO, with RMB 739,408.92 in net interest income earned during the reporting period[88] - The company invested RMB 2.176 billion from the 2021 convertible bond proceeds into projects, with RMB 307.1 million invested during the reporting period and RMB 40.3 million remaining in the dedicated account[88] - The 2023 private placement raised RMB 2.8 billion, with RMB 1.2 billion temporarily used to supplement working capital and RMB 1.5 billion placed in cash management products[88] - The company's 8 million aviation tire project achieved 98.82% of its investment target, with RMB 20.67 billion invested by the end of 2023[89] - The R&D center upgrade project reached 64.93% of its investment target, with RMB 16.23 billion invested by the end of 2023[89] - The Thailand tire expansion project achieved 99.15% of its investment target, with RMB 217.69 billion invested by the end of 2023[89] - The Spain tire project, with a planned investment of RMB 2.8 billion, had not yet started construction as of December 31, 2023 due to pending local approvals[89] - The company's total investment in committed projects reached RMB 329.6 billion by the end of 2023, representing 53.2% of the total raised funds[89] - The company generated RMB 420.29 million in benefits from its Thailand tire expansion project by the end of 2023[89] - The company utilized self-raised funds to pre-invest in the annual production of 80,000 aviation tires (including 50,000 retreaded tires) project, amounting to RMB 164,469,100.39, and the R&D center upgrade project, amounting to RMB 10,929,230.67, with a total of RMB 175,398,331.06 transferred from the fundraising account to the production and operation fund account on October 9, 2020[91] - The company used self-raised funds to pre-invest in the fundraising projects and paid issuance fees, totaling RMB 1,400,920,008.00, which was completed on November 29, 2021, transferring the funds from the fundraising account to the production and operation fund account[91] - The company used up to RMB 1.2 billion of idle funds from the 2023 specific issuance of shares to temporarily supplement working capital, with a usage period not exceeding 12 months from the date of board approval[93] - The company's subsidiary, Sentury (Thailand), reported total assets of RMB 5.78 billion, net assets of RMB 3.9 billion, operating income of RMB 4.35 billion, operating profit of RMB 854.29 million, and net profit of RMB 849.59 million[97] - The company established a new subsidiary, Sentury Tire (Morocco), which had a minor impact on overall production, operation, and performance during the reporting period[98] - The company's total assets amounted to 314,425,176[130] Market and Industry Trends - China's rubber tire production in 2023 was 987.754 million units, a 15.3% increase year-on-year[20] - China exported 616.4 million new pneumatic rubber tires in 2023, an 11.8% increase from the previous year[20] - The company's overseas market demand for semi-steel tires remained strong, driven by competitive pricing and inflation pressures in the US[20] - The domestic market recovery in 2023 was relatively moderate, but long-term growth potential remains high[20] - China's automobile production and sales in 2023 reached 30.161 million and 30.094 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.6% and 12%[21] - New energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales in 2023 were 9.587 million and 9.495 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.8% and 37.9%[21] - The company's overseas market share: The company's tire products achieved a market share of over 5% in the U.S. replacement market and over 4% in the European replacement market in 2023[36] - Domestic market expansion: The "Qilin Cloud Store" platform accumulated nearly 50,000 registered store users by the end of 2023, significantly expanding the domestic sales network[36] - Production growth: In 2023, the company produced 29.24 million tires, a year-on-year increase of 32.98%, including 28.40 million semi-steel tires (up 32.11%) and 840,000 all-steel tires (up 70.91%)[38] - Sales growth: Tire sales reached 29.26 million units in 2023, a 29.28% year-on-year increase, with semi-steel tire sales at 28.47 million units (up 28.19%) and all-steel tire sales at 793,300 units (up 93.88%)[38] - Financial performance: The company achieved revenue of 7.84 billion yuan, a 24.63% year-on-year increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.37 billion yuan, a 70.88% year-on-year increase[38] - R&D achievements: In 2023, the company added 330 new patents, including 4 invention patents, 99 utility model patents, and 227 design patents, bringing the total number of patents to 450[40] - Thailand Phase II project: The company successfully launched the large-scale production of the Thailand Phase II project, which includes an annual production capacity of 6 million high-performance semi-steel radial tires and 2 million high-performance all-steel radial tires[41] - Overseas market growth: The company maintained a steady growth advantage in overseas markets in 2023, leveraging its high-quality, high-performance products and competitive pricing[42] - Strategic partnerships: The company collaborated with global tire manufacturer Nokian to produce snow tires under the Nokian brand, further expanding its international presence[42] - The company successfully entered the supply chain for GAC AION's high-end model AION S PLUS, marking a significant step in the high-end market for new energy tires[45] - The company is advancing the construction of an annual production line for 80,000 aviation tires, including 50,000 retreaded tires[46] - The company's three major brands, "Sentury," "Landsail," and "Delinte," had a cumulative total of 2,207 decorated stores in 2023[47] - The company's direct sales revenue increased by 99.52% year-on-year, accounting for 3.04% of total revenue[49] - The company's other business revenue increased by 42.78% year-on-year, accounting for 0.14% of total revenue[49] - Tire production volume reached 29.24 million units, a 32.98% increase year-over-year, with sales volume at 29.26 million units, up 29.28%[55] - The top five customers accounted for 41.96% of total sales, with the largest customer contributing 14.13% of total sales[59][60] - The top five suppliers accounted for 30.31% of total procurement, with the largest supplier contributing 8.01%[61] - The company's overseas subsidiary, Sentury Tire (Thailand) Co., Ltd., achieved a significant reduction in anti-dumping duties from 17.06% to 1.24%, enhancing its competitiveness in the U.S. market[54] - The company expanded its global presence by adding Sentury Tire (Morocco) Co., Ltd. to its consolidated entities[58] - The company's inventory levels decreased slightly by 0.62% to 368,620 units, indicating efficient inventory management[55] - The company's financial expenses increased by 105.49% to 7,403,493.80 yuan, primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations[62] - The number of R&D personnel increased by 3.20% to 226, with the proportion of R&D personnel slightly decreasing by 0.17 percentage points to 7.51%[64] - The proportion of R&D personnel with a master's degree increased by 35.00% to 27, while the number of PhDs decreased by 100.00% to 1[66] - The age structure of R&D personnel shifted, with a 29.41% increase in the 30-40 age group and an 86.67% increase in the over-40 age group[66] - Several R&D projects were completed, including natural rubber substitution, large tire development, and anti-puncture technology, aimed at enhancing product quality and market competitiveness[63][65] - Net cash flow from financing activities increased significantly due to the issuance of shares to specific investors[69] - Operating cash flow was 1.73 times the net profit attributable to the parent company, driven by increased revenue and reduced operating costs[70] - Overseas assets accounted for 49.05% of the company's net assets, with significant operations in Thailand[74] - The company's consolidated financial statements now include Sentury Tire (Morocco) Co., Ltd. as a new entity[198] Corporate Governance and Leadership - The company's registered address and office address are located at No. 5, Tianshan Third Road, Daxin Town, Jimo City, Qingdao, with a postal code of 266229[7] - The company's legal representative is Qin Long, and its website is www.senturytire.com.cn[7] - The company's stock is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange with the stock code 002984[7] - The company's unified social credit code is 91370282667873459U, and there have been no changes in its main business or controlling shareholders since its listing[11] - The company's annual report is disclosed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange website and major financial media such as Securities Times, China Securities Journal, Shanghai Securities News, and Securities Daily[10] - The company's annual report and related documents are available at the Securities Affairs Department located at No. 5, Tianshan Third Road, Daxin Street, Jimo District, Qingdao[10] - The company's board secretary is Jin Shengyong, and the securities affairs representative is Wang Qian, both reachable at 0532-68968612[8] - The company's email address for securities-related inquiries is zhengquan@senturytire.com[8] - The company's annual report includes financial statements signed by the legal representative, the person in charge of accounting, and the accounting institution[5] - The company maintains a robust corporate governance structure, with a board of 9 directors, including 3 independent directors, and a supervisory board of 3 members, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements[121] - The company has established a comprehensive performance evaluation and incentive mechanism, promoting a fair and efficient work environment[122] - The company ensures transparency and timely information disclosure through designated media and platforms, including the China Securities Journal, Securities Times, Shanghai Securities News, Securities Daily, and the CNINFO website[123] - The company maintains independence in assets, personnel, finance, organization, and business operations, with no overlap or interference from the controlling shareholder or actual controller[124][125] - The company legally owns land, factories, machinery, patents, and trademarks necessary for its main business operations, with no assets occupied by the controlling shareholder or actual controller[124] - The company has an independent financial management system, including a separate accounting system, bank accounts, and tax compliance, with no shared financial resources with the controlling shareholder or actual controller[124] - The company's organizational structure is fully independent, with no mixed operations or shared offices with the controlling shareholder or actual controller[125] - The company has an independent and complete business system, capable of independently formulating product marketing strategies and conducting business without reliance on the controlling shareholder or actual controller[125] - The 2023 annual general meeting had a

证券研究报告 | 2024年03月01日 森麒麟（002984.SZ） 买入 2023 年业绩符合预期，海外基地建设快速推进 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2023年业绩符合预期，毛利率大幅提升。公司发布2023年年度报告，2023 基础化工·橡胶 年公司营收78.4亿元，同比增长24.6%；归母净利润13.7亿元，同比增长 证券分析师：杨林 证券分析师：薛聪 70.9%；扣非归母净利润13.0亿元，同比增长46.9%，业绩符合预期。受益 010-88005379 010-88005107 yanglin6@guosen.com.cn xuecong@guosen.com.cn 于原材料价格和海运费回落的影响，全年毛利率达到25.2%，同比大幅提高 S0980520120002 S0980520120001 4.7个百分点，净利率17.5%，同比提高4.7个百分点。四季度受国庆假期 基础数据 影响，产销量略有下滑，单四季度营收21.0亿元，同比增长36.1%，环比降 投资评级 买入(维持) 低4.8%，归母净利润3.75亿元，同比增长170.1%，环比降低3.1%；毛利率 合理估值 收盘价 31.38元 为2 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 03月 01日 （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年年报点评 当前价： 31.38元 森 麒 麟（002984） 汽车 目标价： 42.88元（6个月） 轮胎产销量大增，盈利水平提升明显 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T a事ble件_S：（um1）ma公ry司] 发布 2023年年报，2023年实现营业收入 78.42亿元，同比增 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au郑th连or声] 长 24.63%；归母净利润13.69亿元，同比增长70.88%。其中，2023Q4实现营 执业证号：S1250522040001 业收入 21亿元，同环比分别+36.19%/-4.76%；归母净利润 3.75亿元，同环比 电话：010-57758531 分别+169.78%/-3.1%。（2）公司制定《三年（2023-2025年）股东回报规划》， 邮箱：zlans@swsc.com.cn 2023-2025 年以现金方式派发的现金红利分别不低于当年经审计的归属于上市 公司股东净利润的20%/ 25%/ 30%，充分重视对投资者的合理投资回报，兼顾 联系人：冯安琪 全体股东的整体 ...

研究报告Research Report 1 Mar 2024 森麒麟 Qingdao Sentury Tire (002984 CH) 2023 年归母净利润同比增长 70.88% 2023 Net Profit +70.88% YoY [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Tab维le_持Inf优o] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM  2023 年归母净利润同比增长 70.88%。2023 年公司实现营业收 入 78.42 亿元，同比增长 24.63%；实现归母净利润 13.69 亿 现价 Rmb31.38 元，同比增长 70.88%；实现扣非净利润 13.05 亿元，同比增长 目标价 Rmb43.52 46.88%。在海外市场，公司高品质、高性能产品在欧美轮胎市 HTI ESG 4.0-5.0-3.0 场具备高性价比的竞争优势，订单需求持续处于供不应求状 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appen ...

事件 2024年 2月 29 日公司发布了2023 年年度报告，2023年实现营收 78.4 亿元，同比增长24.6%；实现归母净利润13.7 亿元，同比增 长 71%。其中4 季度单季度实现营收21亿元，同比增长36%，环 比下滑 4.8%；实现归母净利润 3.75 亿元，同比增长 170%，环比 下滑 3.1%。 经营分析 轮胎行业景气度向好，公司业绩实现高速增长。随着全球客观环 境变化引发的集装箱紧张、海运费及原材料价格疯涨、海外轿车和 轻卡轮胎库存高企等不利因素基本消除，中国轮胎行业在2023 年 进入了良性循环轨道。在海外市场，公司高品质、高性能产品在欧 美轮胎市场具备高性价比的竞争优势，订单需求持续处于供不应 求状态；在具有高增长潜力的国内市场，亦呈现出复苏态势。公司 把握行业机遇，全力推进泰国二期项目在2023 年大规模投产从而 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 更好满足下游客户需求。2023 年全年公司完成轮胎销量 2926 万 39.00 1,600 条，同比增长29%，其中半钢胎销量2847 万条，同比增长 28%；全 1,400 36.00 1,200 钢胎销量79 万条，同比增长 94 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/化工 证券研究报告 森麒麟（002984）公司研究报告 2023 年归母净利润同比增长 62.3-77.3% [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2023年归母净利润同比增长62.33%-77.31%。预计公司2023年实现归母净利  润13.00-14.20亿元，同比增长62.33%-77.31%；实现扣非净利润12.50-13.70 亿元，同比增长 40.73%-54.24%。预计 2023Q4 实现归母净利润 3.07-4.27 亿 元，同比增长121%-207%；扣非后净利润2.93-4.13亿元，同比增长286%-443%。 2023年，在海外市场，公司高品质、高性能产品在欧美轮胎市场具备高性价 比的竞争优势，订单需求持续处于供不应求状态；在具有高增长潜力的国内 市场，亦呈现出复苏态势。 公司泰国复审终裁适用单独税率 1.24%，较原审税率大幅下降。复审终裁税  率发布之前，森麒麟泰国作为原审调查的非强制应诉企业，适用其他泰国出 口美国的轮胎企业的原审税率17.06%；本次复审终裁税率发布之后，森麒麟 泰国作为强制应诉企业，将适用单独税率 1. ...