证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业周报（20251201-20251207） 本周 Henry 天然气、乙烷、辛醇价格涨幅居前 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 08 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：郑轶 邮箱：zhengyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100004 证券分析师：王鲜俐 邮箱：wangxianli@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080004 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：申起昊 邮箱：shenqihao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030001 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 494 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 54,965.58 | 4.60 | | ...

证券日报网讯12月1日，森麒麟（002984）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司摩洛哥工厂目前正 处于产能爬坡状态，目前公司正全力推进摩洛哥项目，预计2026年将实现满产。 ...

证券日报网讯12月1日，森麒麟（002984）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，在公司核心管理层的持 续带领下，森麒麟正通过持续优化全球化布局、技术创新、智能制造、精细化管理、市场份额提升、品 牌力打造等措施，努力追赶及至赶超老牌国际轮胎品牌。以公司为代表之一的中国优秀制造企业势必将 在未来实现"创世界一流轮胎品牌，做世界一流轮胎企业"的企业愿景。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Senqilin (002984.SZ) has indicated that its Morocco factory's production and sales are expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, with full production capacity anticipated to be achieved by 2026 [2] Group 2 - Investors have inquired about the current production capacity of the Monaco project and when it is expected to reach 100% capacity [2] - The company has confirmed that it is on track for improved performance in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1: Metal Sector - Huaxi Nonferrous is expected to see net profit growth from CNY 6.58 billion in 2024 to CNY 11.40 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 37.28 to 21.52[10] - The company has a projected capacity increase to 0.6 million tons of tin and 1 million tons of antimony by 2027, benefiting from resource consolidation trends in Guangxi[12] Group 2: Construction Materials - Huaxin Cement's net profit is forecasted to rise from CNY 24.16 billion in 2024 to CNY 36.73 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 17.21 to 11.32[10] - The company has diversified its growth strategy, focusing on overseas markets and stabilizing its aggregate business[28] Group 3: Transportation - ZTO Express is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 88.17 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 104.11 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio improving from 13.39 to 11.34[10] - The "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery sector have led to a recovery in profitability, with significant improvements in average ticket prices since August 2025[33] Group 4: Energy Sector - ChuanTou Energy's net profit is expected to grow from CNY 45.08 billion in 2024 to CNY 52.59 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 15.93 to 13.65[10] - The company benefits from its stake in Yalong River Hydropower, which contributes significantly to its earnings[73] Group 5: Chemical Sector - Yara International's net profit is projected to increase from CNY 9.50 billion in 2024 to CNY 39.34 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 42.50 to 10.27[10] - The company is positioned as a leader in overseas potash mining, with significant reserves in Laos[49]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Senqilin has experienced a decline of 16.00% year-to-date, with a recent drop of 2.03% on November 20, 2023, indicating potential challenges in market performance [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Senqilin reported a revenue of 6.438 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.54%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 41.17% to 1.015 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, Senqilin has distributed 1.347 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.129 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Senqilin was 64,300, a decrease of 6.29% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 6.78% to 11,102 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Europe Times Pioneer Stock A (001938) is the sixth largest, holding 13 million shares, an increase of 3 million shares from the previous period. Meanwhile, Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) is the ninth largest, holding 9.0306 million shares, a decrease of 187,600 shares [3]. Market Activity - On November 20, 2023, Senqilin's stock price was 20.22 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 157 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.08%. The total market capitalization stood at 20.946 billion yuan [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 24.9748 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 14.05% of purchases and 26.06% of sales [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Qingdao Senqilin Tire Co., Ltd. has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.00%, while the company has experienced a year-to-date decline of 13.29% in stock price [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Senqilin achieved a revenue of 6.438 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 41.17% to 1.015 billion yuan [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 1.347 billion yuan, with 1.129 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Senqilin is 64,300, a decrease of 6.29% from the previous period, with an average of 11,102 circulating shares per shareholder, which is an increase of 6.78% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Europe Times Pioneer Stock A holds 13 million shares, an increase of 3 million shares compared to the previous period, while Southern CSI 500 ETF holds 9.0306 million shares, a decrease of 187,600 shares [3] Market Activity - As of November 19, 2023, Senqilin's stock price is 20.87 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 70.1919 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.48%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 21.619 billion yuan [1] - The net inflow of main funds is 6.2785 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activities recorded [1]

Group 1: Oil and Gas - The oil supply-demand situation is under short-term pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, but medium to long-term oil prices are expected to have bottom support, with Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at $68 and $62 per barrel respectively [2][46] - The demand for natural gas in China is expected to continue growing, supported by low import costs, which will enhance profitability in the domestic industry chain [49] Group 2: Bulk Chemicals - A turning point in capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has been observed since the second half of 2025, with expectations for a new round of recovery in 2026 driven by domestic demand improvements and export support [3][54] - The supply-demand situation for bulk chemical products is expected to improve, with policies supporting supply optimization and demand recovery anticipated to lead to a new round of prosperity [9][54] Group 3: Chemical Products and Fine Chemicals - The recovery in demand for chemical products and fine chemicals is expected to continue, driven by growth in sectors such as automotive, home appliances, military, and electronics, alongside cost improvements in raw materials [4][54] - The chemical industry is likely to see ongoing development in new materials and technologies, with a focus on high-end supply enhancement as emphasized in national policies [4][24] Group 4: Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Petroleum (A/H), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (A/H), and various chemical companies such as LUXI Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Wanhua Chemical, indicating their potential for value reassessment and growth [7][23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Senqilin has experienced a decline of 15.08% year-to-date, with a recent drop of 2.01% on November 18, 2023, indicating potential challenges in market performance [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Senqilin achieved a revenue of 6.438 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.54%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 41.17% to 1.015 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 1.347 billion yuan, with 1.129 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Senqilin is 64,300, a decrease of 6.29% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 6.78% to 11,102 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Europe Times Pioneer Stock A ranks as the sixth largest with 13 million shares, an increase of 3 million shares from the previous period [3].

证券代码：002984 证券简称：森麒麟 公告编号：2025-064 债券代码：127050 债券简称：麒麟转债 青岛森麒麟轮胎股份有限公司 2025年第三次临时股东会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 特别提示： 1、本次股东会未出现否决议案的情形； 2、本次股东会不涉及变更前次股东会决议。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 一、会议召开和出席情况 1、召开时间 （1）现场会议时间：2025年11月17日（星期一）14:30 （2）网络投票时间：2025年11月17日（星期一） 通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的具体时间为2025年11月17日9:15－9:25，9:30－11:30和 13:00－15:00。 通过深圳证券交易所互联网投票系统(http://wltp.cninfo.com.cn)进行网络投票的具体时间为2025年11月17 日9:15至15:00期间的任意时间。 2、现场会议召开地点：山东省青岛市即墨区大信街道天山三路5号公司会议室。 3、会议召开方式：本次会议采取现场表决与网络投票相结合的方式。 ...