Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

摩洛哥工厂正处于产能爬坡阶段，预计2026年实现满产。2025年四季度产销情况已环比提升，且客户意 向订单远超产能放量计划。该工厂是公司全球布局的关键环节，其进展可能影响短期业绩。 公司已进入波音、空客等飞机制造企业供应商名录，并实现部分机型批量供货，未来将基于合作研发协 议持续拓展认证及供货范围。 业绩经营情况 公司2025年三季报显示营收同比增长但净利润下滑，市场关注2025年全年业绩公告的发布时间及内容。 产能扩充 产能扩充 2026年，公司计划将泰国工厂半钢胎销量从设计产能1600万条提升至1750-1800万条，同时全钢胎产能 目标为140万条，持续进行智能化挖潜。 经济观察网基于截至2026年2月的公开信息，森麒麟（002984）(002984.SZ)有以下值得关注的事件或进 展，主要涉及产能扩张、业务进展及公司治理方面。以下内容基于公司公告及投资者交流记录整理，事 件按重要性排序： 业务进展情况 战略推进 根据"833plus"规划，公司计划用10年时间在全球建设8座智能制造基地(包括中国、泰国、欧洲、非洲和 北美)，摩洛哥项目是其中关键一步。 此外，公司持续回应市场传闻(如2025年12月摩洛 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Senqilin and the Tire Industry Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Chinese tire industry, specifically highlighting Senqilin, along with other companies like Zhongce and Sailun, and their expansion into overseas markets [2][4][12]. Key Points and Arguments Market Potential and Growth - Chinese tire companies currently hold less than 20% of the overseas market share, indicating significant room for growth as new factories from companies like Zhongce, Sailun, and Senqilin come online in 2026, leading to increased production capacity and performance growth [2][4]. - The tire sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" opportunity in 2026, with potential for the entire sector to double in growth, driven by both performance and valuation improvements [3]. Performance Drivers - Performance growth is attributed to volume increases and profit margin improvements. The overseas market share is still low, and new factory outputs will significantly enhance profits [4]. - Senqilin's Moroccan factory is designed to produce 12 million semi-steel tires, with a projected production ramp-up that could yield over 40% performance elasticity once it reaches full capacity [4][13]. Tariff Impacts - The U.S. will impose tariffs starting April 2025, which will affect Chinese companies' U.S. business. Companies plan to gradually pass these costs onto consumers, expecting to restore profit margins over the coming quarters [5][9]. - The European anti-dumping policy, expected to be implemented in March 2026, will impose tariffs on Chinese semi-steel tires, benefiting large Chinese tire companies with quality production capabilities, allowing them to increase prices and improve profit margins [5][10][11]. High-End Market Opportunities - 2026 marks the beginning of high-end tire supply opportunities for Chinese companies, with a focus on increasing market share in the high-end segment, which is currently dominated by brands like Michelin and Goodyear [6][12]. Overseas Production Expansion - Chinese tire companies are diversifying their overseas production locations beyond Southeast Asia to include Morocco, Serbia, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brazil, which helps mitigate risks from potential regional production restrictions [7][11]. Competitive Landscape - The European anti-dumping policy will significantly impact smaller tire manufacturers in regions like Shandong, as they have relied heavily on exports to Europe. This shift will create opportunities for larger Chinese companies to fill the supply gap, enhancing their sales and pricing power [8][10]. Senqilin's Financial Performance - Senqilin's business is primarily focused on semi-steel tires, with an overseas revenue share of approximately 90%. The company has a net profit margin close to 30%, attributed to its export-oriented strategy [12]. - The market values Senqilin at a PE ratio of around 13-15 times, reflecting strong performance and a consistent ROE near 20% [12]. Additional Important Insights - The Moroccan factory's production ramp-up is crucial for Senqilin's performance, with expectations of reaching full capacity by April 2026, which will significantly impact the company's stock price [13][14]. - Investors are advised to monitor developments related to the Moroccan factory, European tariffs, and currency fluctuations, as these factors currently suppress Senqilin's stock price but may present a buying opportunity as issues are resolved [14].

Core Viewpoint - Companies are increasingly recognizing the importance of price risk management due to global commodity price fluctuations, engaging in futures and derivatives trading to safeguard high-quality development [1] Group 1: North Copper Industry - North Copper Industry announced plans to mitigate operational risks from price fluctuations of main products by engaging in copper, gold, and silver futures contracts through the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a margin investment not exceeding RMB 700 million [2] - The company aims to align its futures hedging activities with its operational business to maximize the hedging of price volatility risks and has established a hedging management system to enhance internal controls and risk prevention measures [2] Group 2: Senqilin - Qingdao Senqilin Tire announced its intention to utilize the hedging functions of the futures market to effectively control market risks and mitigate adverse impacts from significant raw material price fluctuations, with a maximum margin and premium limit of RMB 200 million for its hedging activities [3] - The company will engage in futures contracts related to natural rubber and other commodities directly linked to its production operations, ensuring that the scale of its hedging activities matches its business operations [3] Group 3: Minglida - Minglida announced plans to conduct futures hedging activities to effectively address raw material price volatility risks, stabilize production costs, and enhance the predictability of its profitability, with a maximum margin and premium limit of RMB 250 million [4] - The company will limit its hedging activities to futures contracts for aluminum, aluminum alloys, and copper traded on domestic commodity exchanges, establishing a management system that outlines approval authority, operational processes, and risk control measures [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and the basic chemicals sector [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry improved in January, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for 2026, with the CCPI-raw material price spread reaching 2631, up from 2500 at the end of 2025 [1][9]. - The demand for chemical products is shifting from real estate to consumer goods, infrastructure, and emerging technologies, with significant growth potential driven by global economic trends [2][11]. - The capital expenditure growth in the chemical industry has been declining since June 2025, suggesting a supply-side adjustment is approaching, which may lead to improved profitability in the sector [2][16]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January, oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and strong global crude oil replenishment demand, leading to a slight improvement in the price spread of most chemical products [9][21]. - Major price increases were observed in products like lithium carbonate and butadiene, while some products like methyltrichlorosilane saw price declines due to supply adjustments [3][33]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The January PMI was reported at 49.3, indicating a continued bottoming out in the real estate sector, while consumer goods and major infrastructure showed positive growth [2][11]. - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, supported by the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and North America, and economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][11][14]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with potential recovery, such as oil and gas, basic chemicals, and companies leveraging synthetic biology for cost reduction [32]. - Specific stock recommendations include China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Baofeng Energy, and Yun Tianhua, among others, highlighting their potential for growth and profitability [7][32]. Monthly Performance Review - In January, the basic chemical index rose by 12.72%, with significant gains in sub-sectors like dye chemicals and petrochemical raw materials [34][36]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with various sub-sectors showing positive price movements and improved market conditions [34][36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Qingdao Senqilin Tire Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.03%, reaching 21.08 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 21.839 billion yuan as of the report date [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of green, safe, high-quality, and high-performance radial tires, including semi-steel and all-steel radial tires, as well as aviation tires [1] - The main business revenue composition of the company is 99.83% from tires and 0.17% from other supplementary sources [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Senqilin, a fund under Southern Fund has reduced its holdings by 187,600 shares, now holding 9.0306 million shares, which accounts for 1.27% of the circulating shares [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) has achieved a year-to-date return of 11.03% and a one-year return of 50.82%, ranking 628 out of 5562 and 1196 out of 4285 respectively in its category [2] - The fund manager of Southern CSI 500 ETF, Luo Wenjie, has a total fund asset scale of 171.358 billion yuan, with the best fund return during his tenure being 187.93% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as p-nitrochlorobenzene (up 27.91%) and LLDPE (up 24.72%), while products like natural gas and LDPE saw substantial declines [6][18]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][19]. - The report anticipates that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [19]. Summary by Sections Product Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include p-nitrochlorobenzene (27.91%), LLDPE (24.72%), and liquid chlorine (20.90) [18]. - Conversely, significant declines were observed in natural gas (-22.34%) and LDPE (-18.02%) [5][21]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry remains in a weak position overall, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. - Specific sectors like the glyphosate industry are showing signs of potential recovery, with decreasing inventories and rising prices, suggesting a possible entry into a favorable cycle [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [21]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical fertilizer and pesticide sectors, which are expected to maintain stable demand due to self-sufficiency [21]. - The report also highlights the benefits for major oil companies like Sinopec, which are expected to gain from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [21].

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Qingdao Senqilin International Trade Co., Ltd., amounting to 50 million RMB as part of a broader authorization for guarantees totaling 250 million RMB for the year 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Guarantee Overview - The company will provide a total guarantee amount of 250 million RMB for its subsidiaries, with an authorization period of 12 months from the date of shareholder approval [2]. - The specific guarantee for Qingdao Senqilin International Trade Co., Ltd. is set at 5 million RMB, approved during the fourth board meeting and the first extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2026 [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Data and Risk Assessment - As of the announcement date, the company's total external guarantee balance is 27.39 million RMB, which represents 2.03% of the company's audited net assets for 2024 [4]. - There are no overdue guarantees or guarantees involving litigation, and the company has not provided guarantees for shareholders, actual controllers, or related parties outside the consolidated financial statements [4]. Group 3: Board's Opinion - The board believes that providing this guarantee will support the subsidiary's operational funding needs and enhance its operational capabilities, while the company maintains effective control over the subsidiary's financial risks [4].

| 证券代码：002984 | 证券简称：森麒麟 | 公告编号：2026-012 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127050 | 债券简称：麒麟转债 | | 根据上述决议，公司就近日为子公司青岛森麒麟国际贸易有限公司（以下简称"森 麒麟国际贸易"）提供综合授信担保的相关事宜公告如下： 一、担保情况概述 1、担保方：青岛森麒麟轮胎股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 青岛森麒麟轮胎股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2026 年 1 月 9 日召开第 四届董事会第九次会议，于 2026 年 1 月 26 日召开 2026 年第一次临时股东会，审议 通过了《关于 2026 年度为子公司提供担保的议案》，同意公司 2026 年度为下属子公 司提供连带责任担保，担保额度合计 250,000 万元人民币，授权有效期自公司股东会 审议通过之日起 12 个月内有效。担保范围包括但不限于申请综合授信、流贷、承兑、 承兑贴现、贸易融资、保函、信用证、项目贷款等融资方式。担保方式包括但不限于 连带责任担保、抵押担保等方式。以上担 ...

Meeting Overview - The first temporary shareholders' meeting of Qingdao Senqilin Tire Co., Ltd. was held on January 26, 2026, at 14:30 [2][3] - The meeting combined on-site voting and online voting [4] Attendance - A total of 341 shareholders attended the meeting, representing 504,530,592 shares, which is 48.6977% of the total voting shares [6] - Among them, 9 shareholders attended in person, representing 495,147,087 shares (47.7920%), while 332 shareholders participated via online voting, representing 9,383,505 shares (0.9057%) [6] Proposals and Voting Results - The meeting approved the proposal to provide guarantees for subsidiaries for the year 2026, with 503,659,352 shares in favor (99.8273%) and 821,080 shares against (0.1627%) [8][9] - The proposal for expected daily related party transactions for 2026 was also approved, with 9,345,485 shares in favor (92.4555%) and 670,980 shares against (6.6381%) [10][11] Legal Opinion - The legal opinion from Beijing Deheng Law Firm confirmed that the meeting's procedures, attendance, proposals, and voting results complied with relevant laws and regulations, making the resolutions valid [12]