丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨森麒麟（002984.SZ） [Table_Title] Q3 收入创历史新高，摩洛哥项目逐步释放 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现收入 64.4 亿元（同比+1.5%），实现归属净利润 10.2 亿元（同比-41.2%），实现归属扣非净利润 9.9 亿元（同比-42.2%）。其中 Q3 单季度实现收入 23.2 亿元（同比+3.9%，环比+12.4%），实现归属净利润 3.4 亿元（同比-47.0%，环比+10.6%）， 实现归属扣非净利润 3.3 亿元（同比-50.5%，环比+4.3%）。公司为国内轮胎龙头，智能化制造 全球领先。随着公司海内外产能不断释放，叠加关税优势，以航空胎技术背书的高端产品与强 大海外渠道有望帮助公司树立较强品牌优势，驱动业绩与品牌持续成长。 %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 高伊楠 叶家宏 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S04905 ...

森麒麟所属申万行业为：汽车-汽车零部件-轮胎轮毂。所属概念板块包括：轮胎、通用航空、空客概 念、一带一路、中盘等。 11月12日，森麒麟盘中上涨2.19%，截至09:54，报21.44元/股，成交1.38亿元，换手率0.91%，总市值 222.09亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入709.32万元，特大单买入1569.33万元，占比11.34%，卖出1150.58万 元，占比8.32%；大单买入2993.11万元，占比21.64%，卖出2702.54万元，占比19.53%。 森麒麟今年以来股价跌10.93%，近5个交易日涨8.94%，近20日涨14.04%，近60日涨12.61%。 资料显示，青岛森麒麟轮胎股份有限公司位于山东省即墨市大信镇天山三路5号，成立日期2007年12月4 日，上市日期2020年9月11日，公司主营业务涉及专注于绿色、安全、高品质、高性能子午线轮胎(半钢 子午线轮胎、全钢子午线轮胎)及航空轮胎的研发、生产、销售。主营业务收入构成为：轮胎99.83%， 其他(补充)0.17%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，森麒麟十大流通股东中，中欧时代先锋股票A（001 ...

证券日报网讯森麒麟（002984）11月10日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司目前拥有中国、泰 国、摩洛哥全球化智能工厂，公司客户遍布全球150多个国家和地区，公司全体管理层坚持一线管理、 一线指导，公司将继续坚持做强做大主业，努力提升公司综合竞争力。 ...

（编辑 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 森麒麟11月10日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2025年第三季度环比第二季度 营收及净利润均环比提升，从产销情况看环比情况亦趋势向上，从目前公布的2025年第三季度轮胎行业 上市公司净利率数据来看，公司净利率依然稳居第一。目前看，摩洛哥工厂四季度产销量较三季度仍有 提升。二级市场股价波动受多重因素影响，公司管理层将继续坚持稳健经营，努力提升公司综合竞争 力。敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Senqilin has shown a recent upward trend despite a year-to-date decline, with significant trading activity and changes in shareholder structure [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 7, Senqilin's stock rose by 2.01%, reaching 20.29 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.12 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.48%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 21.018 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Senqilin's stock price has decreased by 16.74%, but it has increased by 4.37% over the last five trading days, 5.18% over the last 20 days, and 5.29% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Senqilin reported a revenue of 6.438 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.54%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 41.17% to 1.015 billion CNY [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Senqilin has distributed a total of 1.347 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.129 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Senqilin was 64,300, a decrease of 6.29% from the previous period. The average number of tradable shares per shareholder increased by 6.78% to 11,102 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Europe Times Pioneer Stock A (001938) is the sixth largest, holding 13 million shares, an increase of 3 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur, sulfuric acid, and lithium battery electrolyte, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the glyphosate industry to enter a recovery phase, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also notes the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the chemical sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies benefiting from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the glyphosate industry for potential recovery, with a focus on companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It highlights the importance of selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, particularly in the lubricant additive and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for sulfur (10.77%), lithium battery electrolyte (10.53%), and sulfuric acid (9.09%) [19]. - Conversely, products like R22 saw a drastic price drop of 60.49%, indicating volatility in the market [19]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the influence of geopolitical events, such as US sanctions on Russia, on international oil prices, which are expected to remain around $65 per barrel [20][24]. - It also mentions the mixed performance of the chemical industry due to varying demand across different sectors, with some areas like lubricants performing better than others [22].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, showing a slight revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in profitability despite stable sales growth and operational improvements [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.02 billion yuan, down 41.2% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 2.32 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year and 12.4% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 340 million yuan, down 47.1% year-on-year but up 10.3% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Sales Performance - Q3 2025 saw tire sales of 8.441 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.7%, driven by improved operational rates at the Qingdao plant and slight capacity increases in Morocco [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 23.0%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the net margin was 14.8%, down 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to fixed asset depreciation from the Moroccan plant and the full impact of U.S. tariffs [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company maintained stable expense ratios in Q3 2025, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 2.2%, 2.4%, 1.6%, and 1.4% respectively, showing minor fluctuations compared to previous periods [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth driven by improved external factors such as declining raw material prices and increased overseas capacity, particularly in Morocco, alongside a strong order backlog and customer loyalty [2][3]. - The Moroccan plant is expected to resolve power issues by the end of November, with production ramp-up anticipated by the end of 2025 to Q1 2026, while the Qingdao plant's operational rates are also expected to improve [3]. Strategic Positioning - The company has positioned itself in the high-end market through sustained R&D investments, becoming one of the few international manufacturers of aviation tires, which enhances its brand strength and profitability [3]. - The global tariff policies present opportunities for the company, as it can leverage its strong product performance and brand reputation to support future order growth [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 8.7 billion yuan, 11.1 billion yuan, and 11.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.4 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan, and 2.7 billion yuan, reflecting a mixed growth outlook [4].

| 证券代码：002984 | 证券简称：森麒麟 | 公告编号：2025-063 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127050 | 债券简称：麒麟转债 | | 青岛森麒麟轮胎股份有限公司 可转换公司债券2025年付息公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、"麒麟转债"将于 2025 年 11 月 11 日按面值支付第四年利息，每 10 张 "麒麟转债"（面值 1000 元）利息为人民币 15.00 元（含税）。 2、债权登记日：2025 年 11 月 10 日（星期一） 3、除息日：2025 年 11 月 11 日（星期二） 4、付息日：2025 年 11 月 11 日（星期二） 5、"麒麟转债"票面利率：第一年 0.30%、第二年 0.50%、第三年 1.00%、 第四年 1.50%、第五年 1.80%、第六年 2.00%。 6、"麒麟转债"本次付息的债权登记日为 2025 年 11 月 10 日，凡在 2025 年 11 月 10 日（含）前买入并持有本期债券的投资者享有本次派发的利息；2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high sales and revenue in Q3, with total revenue reaching 6.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.54%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.2% [5][6]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to a one-time tax refund received in the previous year and the impact of U.S. trade tariffs affecting profitability [5]. - The company’s tire sales volume remained stable at approximately 23.31 million units for the first three quarters, with a notable recovery in Q3 [5][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 8.511 billion yuan - 2025: 8.699 billion yuan - 2026: 10.649 billion yuan - 2027: 12.151 billion yuan - The expected growth rates for total revenue are 8.5% for 2024, 2.2% for 2025, 22.4% for 2026, and 14.1% for 2027 [4][6]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025: 1.407 billion yuan - 2026: 1.820 billion yuan - 2027: 2.101 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 23.8% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 25.5% by 2027 [4][6]. Sales and Production Insights - The company’s Q3 tire sales volume reached approximately 8.44 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.7% [5]. - The recovery in sales is attributed to improved production rates at the Qingdao plant and the gradual ramp-up of the Morocco facility [5][6]. - The Morocco facility is expected to contribute significantly to sales in the coming years, with sufficient orders in hand [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved record high sales and revenue in Q3, with total revenue reaching 6.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit of 1.015 billion yuan, down 41.2% year-on-year [6][5] - The decline in net profit is attributed to a one-time tax refund received in the previous year and the impact of U.S. trade tariffs on profitability [6] - The company's tire sales remained stable, with approximately 23.31 million tires sold in the first three quarters, showing a slight increase in Q3 [6] - The Moroccan production base is in a ramp-up phase, contributing to sales growth, although it is still in a loss-making position due to depreciation costs [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 8.699 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.2% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.407 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 35.6% year-on-year [5] - The company expects to maintain a high operating rate at its existing bases in Qingdao and Thailand while gradually increasing output from the Moroccan base [6] - The projected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 1.820 billion yuan and 2.101 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11 and 10 [6][5]