【导读】商业航天板块持续活跃，神剑股份 8 连板；锂电股集体下挫； *ST 长药 20cm 跌 停 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！又到周一，来一起关注最新的市场行情和资讯 ~ 12 月 29 日， A 股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，上证指数高开 0.02% ，深证成指平开，创业板 指跌 0.19% 。开盘后，市场持续分化。截至发稿，上证指数涨 0.19% ，创业板指跌 0.83% 。 热门板块中，上午商业航天板块持续火热，神剑股份走出 8 连板；化学纤维、稀土、 GPU 等方向活跃；锂电、动力电池、玻璃纤维、 SPD 等概念股回调。 | 商业航天 | 2249.140 | 0.35% | 7.855 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 886078.TI | | | | | 光威复材 | 39.80 - | 14.14% | 4.93 | | 创 300699.SZ | | | | | 斯瑞新材 | 42.78 | 12.94% | 4.90 | | 科创 688102.SH | | | | | 中超控股 | 6.89 | 10.06% | 0.63 | | 002471.SZ | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's lithium battery sector is experiencing a significant pullback, with major companies like Xinwangda and Tianhong Lithium Battery seeing substantial declines in stock prices due to anticipated decreases in domestic demand for lithium batteries in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Xinwangda's stock dropped over 11%, with a total market value of 48.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 19.72% [2] - Tianhong Lithium Battery fell by over 4.5%, with a market capitalization of 3.193 billion and a year-to-date increase of 108.62% [2] - Yiwai Lithium Energy decreased by over 4%, holding a market value of 142.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 49.41% [2] - Derui Lithium Battery and Weilan Lithium Core both saw declines of over 3%, with market values of 2.649 billion and 20.8 billion respectively [2] Group 2: Demand Forecast - The domestic demand for new energy lithium batteries is expected to decline significantly in early 2026, with a projected drop of at least 30% in sales of new energy passenger vehicles due to policy adjustments on vehicle purchase taxes [1] - The commercial vehicle sector is also anticipated to face a substantial decrease in demand following a rush for subsidies and tax exemptions at the end of the previous year [1] - Exports of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to remain strong, but this will not significantly boost the demand for batteries from independent suppliers [1] - The demand for domestic battery exports to the U.S. is projected to decline sharply, with no significant impact from U.S. AI storage needs on domestic battery suppliers [1] - Domestic energy storage tender prices are significantly below 300 yuan per kilowatt-hour, leading to weakened demand for price increases, and vehicle batteries cannot absorb the cost losses from energy storage [1]

【导读】商业航天板块持续活跃，神剑股份（002361）8连板；锂电股集体下挫；*ST长药（300391）20cm跌停 大家好！又到周一，来一起关注最新的市场行情和资讯~ 12月29日，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，上证指数高开0.02%，深证成指平开，创业板指跌0.19%。开盘后，市场持续分化。截至发稿，上证指数涨 0.19%，创业板指跌0.83%。 | 3971.22 | -- 13547.23 | 3216.87 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 +0.19% | 深证成指 -0.42% | 创业板指 -0.83% | 热门板块中，上午商业航天板块持续火热，神剑股份走出8连板；化学纤维、稀土、GPU等方向活跃；锂电、动力电池、玻璃纤维、SPD等概念股回调。 商业航天板块持续活跃 神剑股份8连板 华西证券（002926）研报认为，这一举措落地标志着科创板"1+6"改革持续深化，为处于大规模商业化关键期的商业航天企业提供了更便捷的直接融资渠 道，将加速资本与产业的深度融合。 欣旺达盘初跌近16% 12月29日上午，欣旺达（300207）低开低走，盘初一度跌近16%，最低价报25元/股。 消 ...

来源：股市直击 消息面上，12月26日晚间，国产电池厂商欣旺达发布公告称，其全资子公司欣旺达动力科技股份有限公 司（以下简称"欣旺达动力"）因买卖合同纠纷被威睿电动汽车技术（宁波）有限公司（以下简称"威 睿"）起诉，涉案金额高达约23.14亿元人民币。 早盘锂电池概念震荡下挫，锂矿、电解液方向领跌，欣旺达、宏源药业跌超10%，多氟多、天华新能、 大中矿业、海科新源、清水源均跌超7%。 ...

Group 1 - The lithium battery sector is experiencing significant fluctuations, with companies such as Xinwangda, Hongyuan Pharmaceutical, and Aolian Electronics seeing declines of over 10% [1] - More than ten stocks, including Mofangduo, Tianhua New Energy, Shenzhen New Star, Yongtai Technology, and Huasheng Lithium Battery, have dropped by over 5% [1]

早盘锂电池概念震荡下挫，锂矿、电解液方向领跌，欣旺达、宏源药业跌超10%，多氟多、天华新能、 大中矿业、海科新源、清水源均跌超7%。 ...

欣旺达盘初大跌12%，子公司欣旺达动力科技股份有限公司涉案金额约23.14亿元人民币的诉讼案件。 ...

Summary of Conference Call for Xinwangda Company Overview - **Company**: Xinwangda - **Industry**: Battery manufacturing, specifically focusing on power battery packs and energy storage solutions Key Points and Arguments Product Reliability and Legal Issues - The self-developed PAK battery pack has been validated by customers, indicating high reliability; however, the company does not take responsibility for defects beyond deformation, especially if caused by BMS or thermal management misuse [2][3] - The company is facing a lawsuit from Geely, claiming 2.3 billion yuan in damages related to power battery pack cells supplied by Xinwangda; the company disputes the claim, stating it is disproportionate to the actual supply amount of approximately 600 million yuan from 2021 to 2023 [2][9] - A provision of over 300 million yuan has been made for warranty and bad debt, with an expected litigation period of 2-5 years [2][7] Customer Relationships and Future Projects - In 2025, Xinwangda will continue to supply products to Weirui, indicating stable customer relationships; however, future collaborations may be limited to clients with open control strategies [2][8][15] - The company has achieved monthly breakeven in Q4, reinforcing its operational stability [10] Expansion Plans and Market Demand - Anticipating strong demand for energy storage in 2026, the company plans to increase its energy storage capacity from 10 GWh to over 30 GWh, with expansions in Deyang and Chengdu [2][11][24] - The production of the 684 cell has commenced, with over 1 million units produced, and plans for additional large-capacity cell production to lead in energy storage technology [25] Raw Material Price Management - The company is implementing strategies to manage rising raw material costs, including strategic inventory, partnerships with mining companies, and futures hedging; most customers have accepted price increases [16][17] - The impact of raw material price increases on the goal of achieving profitability in 2026 is mitigated by the established price linkage mechanism with customers [17] Financial Implications of Legal Claims - The company believes the compensation amount of 2.3 billion yuan is unlikely to be realized, estimating a maximum liability of 200-300 million yuan, which would be amortized over five years [18][23] - The potential impact on financial statements is manageable, with provisions already accounted for in previous quarters [23] Production and Sales Targets - The optimistic sales target for 2026 for both power and energy storage businesses is set at 80-100 GWh, with efforts to exceed 100 GWh [28] Additional Important Information - The company has recalled problematic cells and replaced them, ensuring compliance with quality standards [14] - The company is cautious about future collaborations with clients that have closed control strategies, preferring to work with those that are cooperative [15] - The company has not yet discussed switching to futures pricing with downstream automotive companies, but anticipates that market trends will align pricing with futures prices [22] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current status, challenges, and strategic direction in the battery manufacturing industry.

Summary of the Conference Call for Xinwanda Company Overview - **Company**: Xinwanda - **Industry**: Battery manufacturing, specifically focusing on power batteries and energy storage solutions Key Points and Arguments Product Supply and Reliability - Xinwanda's subsidiary is responsible solely for supplying battery cells, while the customer handles the overall design of the battery pack, including BMS and thermal management systems. The same battery cells supplied to other clients have shown reliable performance, validating product reliability [2][3] - Both parties have communicated and verified key technical indicators of the battery cells, establishing clear acceptance standards [2][3] Legal Issues and Financial Provisions - The customer has claimed compensation significantly exceeding actual sales, leading Xinwanda to provision over 300 million RMB for warranty and bad debt reserves, which the company deems reasonable and prudent [2][4] - Xinwanda believes it is not liable for the claims and plans to conduct an impartial inspection through a third party to support its case in court, with the legal process expected to take 2-5 years, but the long-term impact is considered limited [2][8] Market Outlook and Production Goals - Xinwanda anticipates total shipments of power batteries to reach 50 GWh by 2026, focusing on high-power fast-charging segments and differentiating itself in the market [2][5] - The energy storage business is projected to ship approximately 20 GWh in 2025, with capacity expected to exceed 30 GWh, potentially reaching 40 GWh by 2026 [2][6] - The company has begun deliveries from its Thailand base, primarily targeting the U.S. market, which is seen as having lower geopolitical risks [2][9] Strategic Partnerships and Product Development - Collaboration with Sungrow has led to the development of the 684 model, with deliveries already initiated, and the next-generation 588 model expected to be delivered in the second half of next year [2][7][10] - Xinwanda is also working on solid-state battery technology, with a new product expected to be released in Q4 2025, already tested in low-altitude flying vehicles [2][24] Financial Performance and Market Position - The company expects revenue from the power battery segment to approach 20 billion RMB in 2025, with a significant increase in global SUV sales projected [2][5] - Overseas market prices for products are significantly higher than domestic prices, contributing to better profit margins and competitive advantages due to tariff issues [2][11] Customer Relations and Future Orders - Major customers, including Li Auto, are expected to contribute significantly to production in 2026, with preparations already underway for equipment testing and trial runs [2][17] - The company has reassured clients regarding the quality and reliability of its products, maintaining strong relationships despite ongoing legal challenges [2][18][35] Raw Material Management and Cost Adjustments - Xinwanda has proactively managed raw material costs, including lithium carbonate, by securing long-term contracts with suppliers to mitigate price fluctuations [2][14][34] - The company has established a pricing mechanism that allows for adjustments based on raw material costs, ensuring that price increases can be passed on to customers [2][28][31] Future Growth and Expansion Plans - Xinwanda plans to expand its production capacity in both domestic and international markets, with significant projects underway in Deyang and Thailand [2][16] - The company is optimistic about achieving profitability in 2026, with a focus on maintaining strong sales performance and customer satisfaction [2][22] Additional Important Information - The company is confident in its ability to navigate the current legal challenges without significant impact on its operations or financial performance [2][35] - Xinwanda's strategic focus on high-end markets and customized solutions is expected to enhance its competitive position in the battery industry [2][5][11]

Group 1: Automotive Industry Developments - Chongqing government has added 160 million yuan in subsidies for vehicle replacement and scrapping, bringing the total subsidy amount to 185 million yuan, with applications open from December 27, 2025, to January 10, 2026 [1] - Leap Motor has launched its first MPV model D99, aiming for a sales target of 1 million units in 2026 after achieving nearly 600,000 units in 2025 [2] - CATL plans to significantly scale up the application of sodium batteries in various sectors including battery swapping, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage in 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The demand for new energy lithium batteries is expected to decline significantly in early 2026, with a projected drop of at least 30% in sales of new energy passenger vehicles due to policy adjustments [2] - The price of silver has surged over 17% in the past week, raising concerns from industry leaders like Elon Musk regarding its impact on industrial production [5] - Russia has extended its temporary export ban on automotive gasoline and other oil products until February 28, 2026, affecting all exporters [6] Group 3: Financial and Legal Matters - Xinwanda's subsidiary is facing a lawsuit with a claim of 2.3 billion yuan due to alleged quality issues with battery cells delivered to a client [3] - Weinan has completed nearly 1 billion yuan in Series C equity financing, which will be used for battery asset investments and technology research and development [4]