证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 纺织服饰 制造期待复苏，品牌分化持续 ——纺织服装行业四季度策略 投资要点 ❑ 出口链：情绪改善，业绩逐季改善可期，重视板块复苏机会 关税安排趋于明朗，利于后续品牌商下单积极性： 7/31 美国白宫更新对等关税税率 安排，越南、印尼、孟加拉、柬埔寨等东南亚纺织制造国关税基本在 19%-20%；关税安 排的明朗有望对后续品牌商与制造商订单下单的确定性提升带来正向帮助，虽然 10/10 特 朗普再次在社交网络上提出计划针对中国商品加征 100%关税，但考虑 2018 年贸易摩擦 后多数制造龙头已经加速推进产能国际化，对美出口主要由东南亚产能供应，因此对纺 织制造业龙头增量影响非常有限。 大龙头近期季报来看，下游需求有望逐季提振：需求来看，由于大部分品牌商在 24 年刚刚完成一波补库，叠加关税影响，25H1 下单较为谨慎，但关税安排落地后，采购热 情有望随品牌商本身真实需求有所提振。美国品牌虽然整体偏谨慎指引，但 Nike 也在 9 月末的季报交流会中表示全球去库有序推进：6-8 月季报收入及毛利率略超预期，并指引 25 假日购物季、26 春季订货会同比都为正向增长（除大中华 ...

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the broader market since September, with textile manufacturing outperforming branded apparel, showing +0.1% and -1.6% respectively as of October 9 [1][13] - Key companies that have seen significant gains since September include Xin'ao Co. (+16.9%), Fengtai Enterprise (+14.9%), Adidas (+11.6%), and others [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in August grew by 3.1% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase from the previous month [2] - The sales pressure is expected in September due to the absence of the Mid-Autumn Festival and high temperatures affecting consumer behavior [2] - E-commerce channels showed strong growth in outdoor apparel, with sportswear brands like Descente (+51%) and Lululemon (+35%) leading the way [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports in September increased by 9.4% year-on-year, while footwear exports rose by 9.0% [3] - China's textile exports showed a slight improvement in August, with a 1.4% increase, although apparel and footwear exports declined significantly [3] - Wool prices saw a notable increase in September, rising by 17.5% month-on-month and 28.3% year-on-year [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the rebound opportunities in textile manufacturing, with expectations for order recovery in Q4 [5] - Companies like Shenzhou International, which is Nike's largest apparel supplier, and Huayi Group are highlighted as key beneficiaries of tariff changes and Nike's recovery [5] - The report suggests that the impact of tariffs will diminish in Q4, leading to a stabilization of orders [5] Key Company Forecasts - Shenzhou International is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 4.37 in 2025 and a PE ratio of 13.9 [8] - Other companies such as Huayi Group and Kai Run Co. are also rated "Outperform" with positive growth forecasts [8]

行情回顾：9 月以来 A 股纺服板块走势弱于大盘，其中纺织制造表现优于品 牌服饰，截至 10/9 日，分别+0.1%/-1.6%；港股纺服指数弱于大盘，9 月以 来板块整体下跌。重点关注公司中 9 月以来涨幅领先的包括：新澳股份 (16.9%)/丰泰企业(14.9%)/阿迪达斯(11.6%)/儒鸿(10.8%)/申洲国际 (8.6%)/报喜鸟(7.6%)。 品牌服饰观点：1）社零：8 月服装社零同比增长 3.1%，增速环比提升，较 上月提速 1.3 百分点。9 月今年因较去年缺少中秋假期，同时气温仍然较热， 我们预计 9 月服装销售较 7-8 月有一定压力；去年十一假期受促销费政策带 动基数较高，今年受气温、以及出行客流增加分流影响，预计服饰销售存在 压力。2）电商：8 月电商户外品类增长保持领先，运动服饰/户外服饰/休闲 服饰/家纺/个护分别同比-1%/+22%/ -1%/-7%/-1%。运动服饰中，增速领先 的品牌包括迪桑特(51%)、露露乐蒙(35%)；户外品牌中，凯乐石(113%)、蕉 下(79%)、可隆(69%)较其他品牌增长强劲；休闲服饰中，江南布衣(65%)保 持快速增长，主要靠京东、天猫平台带 ...

Core Insights - On October 9, 2023, brokerage firms set target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for companies in the personal care, medical device, and semiconductor industries [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - The companies with the highest target price increases include: - Steady Medical (稳健医疗) with a target price increase of 44.29%, rated "Buy" by CITIC Securities, with a target price of 56.00 yuan [2]. - Sanor Bio (三诺生物) with a target price increase of 35.27%, rated "Recommended" by Huachuang Securities, with a target price of 27.00 yuan [2]. - Tongfu Microelectronics (通富微电) with a target price increase of 24.46%, rated "Buy" by Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong), with a target price of 55.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 27 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on October 9, with BYD (比亚迪) receiving recommendations from two firms, while Qianhong Pharmaceutical (千红制药) and Mulinsen (木林森) each received one recommendation [2]. Group 3: Rating Adjustments - Northeast Securities upgraded Jiangfeng Electronics (江丰电子) from "Hold" to "Buy" on October 9 [3]. - Five companies received initial coverage ratings on the same day, including: - Dongfang Guoxin (东方国信) rated "Buy" by Xinda Securities [3]. - Sanyou Medical (三友医疗) rated "Recommended" by Ping An Securities [3]. - Yidian Tianxia (易点天下) rated "Buy" by Zhongyou Securities [3]. - Jiangfeng Electronics (江丰电子) rated "Buy" by Northeast Securities [3]. - Cambrian (寒武纪) rated "Buy" by Huaxin Securities [3].

Core Insights - On October 9, brokerages set target prices for listed companies a total of 12 times, with notable increases for companies such as Weikang Medical, Sanor Bio, and Tongfu Microelectronics, showing target price increases of 44.29%, 35.27%, and 24.46% respectively, across the personal care, medical device, and semiconductor industries [1] Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 27 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on October 9, with BYD receiving recommendations from 2 brokerages, while Qianhong Pharmaceutical and Mulinsen each received 1 recommendation [1] Rating Adjustments - Northeast Securities upgraded Jiangfeng Electronics' rating from "Hold" to "Buy" on October 9 [1] Initial Coverage - On October 9, brokerages initiated coverage with 5 new ratings, including: - Dongfang Guoxin received a "Buy" rating from Sinolink Securities - Sanyou Medical received a "Recommended" rating from Ping An Securities - Yidian Tianxia received a "Buy" rating from Zhongyou Securities - Jiangfeng Electronics received a "Buy" rating from Northeast Securities - Cambrian received a "Buy" rating from Huaxin Securities [1]

Core Insights - The personal care products sector experienced a 0.58% increase on October 9, with Beijia leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Stock Performance Summary - Beijia (603059) closed at 34.19, up 2.80% with a trading volume of 26,600 and a transaction value of 90.90 million [1] - Yiyi Co. (001206) closed at 31.20, up 2.70% with a trading volume of 49,000 and a transaction value of 150 million [1] - Yanjing Co. (300658) closed at 9.32, up 2.42% with a trading volume of 241,600 and a transaction value of 229 million [1] - Reliable Co. (301009) closed at 13.63, up 2.10% with a trading volume of 31,700 and a transaction value of 42.76 million [1] - Stable Medical (300888) closed at 38.81, up 1.33% with a trading volume of 45,700 and a transaction value of 176 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Liangmian Needle (600249) at 5.91, up 0.85%, and Runben Co. (603193) at 28.03, up 0.07% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The personal care products sector saw a net inflow of 22.62 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 19.11 million [2] - Major stocks with significant net inflows include Stable Medical (300888) with 10.81 million and Dengkang Oral (001328) with 8.52 million [3] - Conversely, stocks like Beijia (603059) and Liangmian Needle (600249) experienced net outflows of 4.81 million and 0.25 million respectively [3]

证券研究报告 可选消费 国庆出行活跃，远途游及情绪消费亮眼 华泰研究 2025 年 10 月 09 日│中国内地 动态点评 国庆中秋假期消费稳健增长，双节重叠带动文旅消费及出行数据向好 据商务部数据，国庆中秋假期前 4 天（10.1-10.4）全国重点零售和餐饮企 业销售额同增 3.3%，保持稳健增长。双节重叠+拼假潮催化出行意愿，交运 部数据显示 25 年国庆中秋假期（10.1-10.8）日均跨区域人员达 3.04 亿人 次/同比+6.2%/环比五一+3.7%，高基数下仍有增长。小城文旅、文化体验 等多元化娱乐愈发出圈。商品消费领域，各地促消费政策、国补持续提振消 费并推动品类升级，绿色健康、智能化品类增速领先，"悦己+体验"等情 绪消费需求高涨，引领品类创新及服务迭代。我们看好消费行业的结构性机 会，建议关注情绪消费、国货崛起、AI+消费等方向的投资机遇。 零售：旅游省市及中低线城市表现亮眼，绿色智能及情绪消费受青睐 1）分地区看，旅游热门省市及中低线城市表现亮眼，如青岛（+8.2%）、 南京（+5.9%）、天津（+5.0%）、广西（+11.3%）等，美团国庆县域旅游 消费订单同增 51%。线下消费稳健增 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Yanjiang Co., Ltd. (延江股份) based on its expected high growth phase starting in 2025, driven by increased orders and a strong competitive position in the market [18]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.1% from September 29 to September 30, underperforming the SW All A index by 2.1 percentage points [4][5]. - Recent industry data indicates that from January to August, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 940 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4][33]. - The report highlights a significant increase in Australian wool prices, which are expected to benefit New Australia Co., Ltd. (新澳股份) as it capitalizes on the current market cycle [10][11]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector Performance - The textile sector has underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index down 0.1% and the SW apparel and home textiles index flat, both lagging behind the SW All A index [4][5]. - The Australian wool auction prices have reached record highs, with the eastern market composite index rising by 7.7% month-on-month and 41.8% year-on-year, indicating a strong upward trend [10]. Company-Specific Insights - Yanjiang Co., Ltd. is positioned to benefit from the global upgrade of sanitary materials, with expectations of significant order growth in 2025, marking the beginning of a high-growth phase [14][18]. - New Australia Co., Ltd. is expected to see performance improvements due to favorable market conditions and a proactive purchasing strategy, with inventory levels indicating readiness for increased demand [10][11]. Market Trends and Projections - The report notes that the domestic demand recovery is a key theme for 2025, with a focus on high-quality domestic brands that are expected to reverse current challenges [11]. - The report anticipates that the competitive landscape will improve for companies like New Australia Co., Ltd. as many competitors face supply chain challenges due to insufficient inventory [10][11]. Financial Performance and Forecasts - Yanjiang Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 94% in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected profits of 0.6 billion yuan in 2025, 1.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.0 billion yuan in 2027 [18]. - Steady growth is also expected for the medical segment of Steady Medical (稳健医疗), with a projected revenue of 90 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 14% over five years [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for 延江股份 (Yanjing Co.) based on its expected high growth phase starting in 2025, with projected net profits of 0.6 billion, 1.4 billion, and 2.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a CAGR of +94% [19] Core Views - The textile and apparel sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.1% from September 29 to September 30, underperforming the SW All A index by 2.1 percentage points [5][6] - Recent industry data indicates that from January to August, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 940 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5][35] - The report highlights a significant increase in Australian wool prices, which are expected to benefit 新澳股份 (New Australia Co.) as it capitalizes on the current wool cycle [11][12] Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The Australian wool auction prices have reached record highs, with the Eastern Market Composite Index increasing by 112 Australian cents per kilogram to 1565 Australian cents per kilogram, marking a 7.7% increase month-on-month and a 41.8% increase year-on-year [11] - 新澳股份 is positioned to benefit from this wool price increase, with expectations of improved performance starting in Q4 2025 due to favorable inventory levels and order trends [11][12] - The report notes that the textile manufacturing sector is currently facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs, but high-quality manufacturers are expected to recover as market conditions improve [12] Apparel Sector - NIKE's FY26Q1 results showed a revenue of 11.7 billion USD, a 1% year-on-year increase, although net profit fell by 31% [13][14] - The report anticipates that NIKE will gradually recover, with significant opportunities arising from its operational improvements [14] - The domestic retail environment is expected to improve, with various initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending, particularly in the sportswear segment [14] Company Highlights - 延江股份 is recognized for its strong position in the global supply chain for hygiene materials, with a projected high growth phase beginning in 2025 due to increased orders [15][19] - 稳健医疗 (Steady Medical) has shown resilience with a compound annual growth rate of 14% in revenue from 2019 to 2024, and plans to continue focusing on high-quality growth in both its medical and consumer product segments [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and innovation in driving growth for companies like 稳健医疗, which has successfully navigated multiple economic cycles [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic large-caliber artificial blood vessel project led by Yang Hongjun at Wuhan Textile University has entered the industrialization phase and will soon move into the registration stage [2] Company Involvement - Wanjian Medical (300888.SZ) confirmed on September 30 that it is collaborating with Wuhan Textile University on the artificial blood vessel project, which is currently in the animal testing phase [2] - The research and development cycle for the project is lengthy, and the company will communicate any breakthrough developments to the market in a timely manner [2]