华泰联合证券有限责任公司 关于华兰生物疫苗股份有限公司 2025 年半年度跟踪报告 | 保荐人名称：华泰联合证券有限责任公司 | 被保荐公司简称：华兰疫苗 | | --- | --- | | 保荐代表人姓名：陈振博 | 联系电话：010-56839300 | | 保荐代表人姓名：刘晓宁 | 联系电话：010-56839300 | 一、保荐工作概述 | 项目 | 工作内容 | | --- | --- | | 1.公司信息披露审阅情况 | | | （1）是否及时审阅公司信息披露文件 | 是 | | （2）未及时审阅公司信息披露文件的次数 | 无 | | 2．督导公司建立健全并有效执行规章制度的情况 | | | （1）是否督导公司建立健全规章制度（包括但 | | | 不限于防止关联方占用公司资源的制度、募集 | 是 | | 资金管理制度、内控制度、内部审计制度、关 | | | 联交易制度） | | | （2）公司是否有效执行相关规章制度 | 是 | | 3.募集资金监督情况 | | | （1）查询公司募集资金专户次数 | 每月一次 | | （2）公司募集资金项目进展是否与信息披露 | 是 | | 文件一致 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry is experiencing a downturn, with significant revenue and profit declines among major companies, attributed to price wars, vaccine hesitancy, and intense competition [4][5][10][20]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the overall vaccine revenue of listed companies in China decreased by 60% year-on-year, and net profit dropped by 113% [5]. - Major vaccine companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological reported their first half-year losses since going public, with net profits declining by 127% and 155% respectively [5][10]. - Only six out of 17 listed vaccine companies achieved profitability, with the highest profit being 122 million yuan from Chengda Biological [5]. Group 2: Price Wars - The price of flu vaccines has significantly dropped, with some prices reaching as low as 5.5 yuan per dose, leading to a continuous price war in the market [8][9]. - Wantai Biological's revenue from its main product, the bivalent HPV vaccine, fell by 38% to 844 million yuan, marking its first loss since listing [10]. - The price competition has also affected other vaccines, including HPV and shingles vaccines, with prices dropping dramatically in recent years [9][10][11]. Group 3: Vaccine Hesitancy - Vaccine hesitancy has become a significant issue, particularly for non-mandatory vaccines like HPV and flu vaccines, with many individuals expressing doubts about their effectiveness [13][14][15]. - The average flu vaccine coverage in China remains below 4%, significantly lower than in developed countries where it is around 50% [15]. - Factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy include dissatisfaction with COVID-19 vaccine outcomes, misinformation, and a lack of awareness regarding adult vaccinations [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the current downturn in the vaccine industry may last for five to ten years, with potential consolidation and elimination of weaker companies [20]. - The industry faces challenges in changing public perception and increasing adult vaccination rates, which are crucial for market expansion [20]. - The competition is expected to remain fierce, with many companies struggling to differentiate their products in a saturated market [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Hualan Vaccine's stock experienced a decline of 1.24% on September 15, with a trading volume of 37.6 million yuan, indicating potential market volatility and investor sentiment shifts [1]. Financing and Margin Trading - On September 15, Hualan Vaccine had a financing buy-in amount of 4.11 million yuan and a financing repayment of 5.61 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 1.50 million yuan. The total financing and margin trading balance reached 115 million yuan, which is 1.04% of the circulating market value, indicating a relatively high level compared to the past year [1]. - The company had a margin trading activity on the same day, with 3,200 shares repaid and 400 shares sold short, amounting to a short sale value of 7,336 yuan. The remaining short selling volume was 22,100 shares, with a margin balance of 406,200 yuan, also reflecting a high level compared to the past year [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hualan Vaccine reported a revenue of 59.96 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 68.77%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.71% to 20.80 million yuan [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Hualan Vaccine has distributed a total of 680 million yuan in dividends, with 600 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of August 10, the number of Hualan Vaccine shareholders decreased by 5.26% to 18,000, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 5.56% to 7,869 shares [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included various ETFs and investment funds, with notable changes in holdings among major shareholders, indicating shifts in institutional investment [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Hualan Vaccine (301207) has seen a net financing purchase of 206.26 million yuan on September 11, 2025, with a financing balance of 1.19 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment [1][4]. - Over the past three trading days, Hualan Vaccine has recorded a cumulative net purchase of 507.96 million yuan, with 11 out of the last 20 trading days showing net financing purchases [1][4]. - The financing balance increased by 1.76% compared to the previous day, reflecting a growing interest in the stock [4]. Group 2 - On September 11, 2025, there was a net short selling of 100 shares, with a total short selling balance of 2.44 million shares [3]. - In the last 20 trading days, there have been 12 days of net short selling, indicating a bearish sentiment among some investors [3]. - The total short selling balance on September 11 was valued at 45.84 million yuan [3]. Group 3 - The financing and securities lending balance reached 1.20 billion yuan on September 11, 2025, showing a significant increase in trading activity [4]. - The financing balance on September 10 was 1.18 billion yuan, which had increased from 1.16 billion yuan on September 9 [4]. - The fluctuations in the financing balance over the past few days indicate varying investor confidence in Hualan Vaccine [4].

Core Insights - The vaccine industry is experiencing significant challenges, with many companies reporting substantial losses and declining revenues in 2025 [4][20][21] - Price wars and vaccine hesitancy are identified as major factors contributing to the industry's downturn [4][12][14] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, major vaccine companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological reported their first-ever half-year losses, with net profits dropping by 127% and 155% respectively [4][5] - Overall, vaccine revenue for listed companies in China decreased by 60% year-on-year, with net profits down by 113% [4] - Among 17 listed vaccine companies, only 6 reported profits, with the highest profit being 1.22 billion yuan from Chengda Biological [4] Market Dynamics - The top five vaccine companies by market capitalization are Wantai Biological, Zhifei Biological, CanSino, Kangtai Biological, and Watson Biological, with only CanSino showing a profit increase due to its innovative four-valent meningococcal vaccine [4][5] - A significant price drop in flu vaccines has been noted, with prices falling to as low as 5.5 yuan per dose, leading to intense competition [6][7][8] Price Wars - The price of various vaccines, including flu and HPV vaccines, has been driven down due to aggressive competition, with some prices dropping to a fraction of their previous levels [9][10][11] - Wantai Biological's entry into the nine-valent HPV vaccine market has intensified competition, leading to significant price reductions across the sector [9][10] Vaccine Hesitancy - Vaccine hesitancy has become a critical issue, particularly for non-mandatory vaccines, with many individuals expressing doubts about vaccine efficacy [14][15][16] - The overall vaccination rates for flu vaccines remain low in China, with annual rates below 4%, compared to over 50% in developed countries [16] Industry Outlook - The vaccine industry is facing a prolonged period of challenges, with experts predicting that the current downturn may last five to ten years unless significant changes occur in public perception and market dynamics [20][21] - The industry is expected to undergo consolidation, with weaker companies likely to be eliminated as competition intensifies [21]

Core Viewpoint - The vaccine industry in China is experiencing significant challenges, with many companies reporting substantial losses and a decline in revenue due to price wars, vaccine hesitancy, and intense competition [1][4][15]. Group 1: Financial Performance of Vaccine Companies - In the first half of 2025, major vaccine companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological reported their first-ever half-year losses, with net profits dropping by 127% and 155% respectively [1][3]. - Overall, the revenue of Chinese vaccine listed companies decreased by 60% year-on-year, and net profits fell by 113% in the first half of 2025 [1]. - Among the top five vaccine companies by market capitalization, only CanSino reported a year-on-year net profit increase, attributed to its innovative four-valent meningococcal vaccine [2][3]. Group 2: Price Wars and Market Dynamics - The price of flu vaccines has significantly dropped, with some prices reaching as low as 5.5 yuan per dose, leading to a price war that has affected various vaccine types including HPV and pneumonia vaccines [4][5]. - Wantai Biological's revenue from its main product, the bivalent HPV vaccine, fell by 38% to 8.44 billion yuan, marking its first loss since going public [5][8]. - The industry is facing a normalization of price competition, with companies engaging in various promotional strategies to capture market share, further compressing product pricing [8][15]. Group 3: Vaccine Hesitancy - Vaccine hesitancy has become a significant issue, with many individuals expressing doubts about vaccine efficacy, particularly for non-mandatory vaccines like HPV and flu vaccines [10][12]. - The average flu vaccine coverage in China remains below 4%, significantly lower than in developed countries where it can reach 50% [12]. - Factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy include dissatisfaction with COVID-19 vaccine outcomes, misinformation, and a lack of awareness regarding the importance of adult vaccinations [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Industry Challenges - The vaccine industry is expected to face prolonged challenges, with experts predicting that the current competitive landscape will lead to consolidation and potential elimination of weaker players [15][16]. - The market for adult vaccines is particularly underdeveloped, and significant efforts are needed to improve public awareness and acceptance [12][16]. - The industry consensus suggests that without substantial changes in public perception and a more robust adult vaccination framework, the market will continue to struggle [16].

Core Insights - The price of domestic trivalent influenza vaccines in the public market has significantly decreased, with recent bids showing prices as low as 5.5 yuan per dose, marking a new low in the public vaccine market [1][3][4] Pricing Trends - The price of trivalent influenza vaccines has dropped below 10 yuan per dose since last year, with multiple instances of price reductions in 2023 [1][3] - In September, the Beijing public resource trading platform announced that the Shanghai Biological Products Research Institute won a bid for trivalent influenza vaccines at 5.5 yuan per dose, while Hualan Biological's bid was 10 yuan per dose [1][4] - The price of vaccines in the public market may not cover production costs, leading to a price war among manufacturers aiming to maintain market share [4][5] Market Dynamics - The public health budget for influenza vaccinations has increased, prompting manufacturers to focus more on the public market amid competition from quadrivalent vaccines [4][5] - The production of influenza vaccines is time-sensitive, as they must be produced based on the WHO's annual strain recommendations, leading to potential waste if bids are unsuccessful [5] Vaccine Types and Innovations - The market includes various types of influenza vaccines, with the most common being split virus vaccines, while innovative products like quadrivalent subunit vaccines are less affected by price competition [8] - The first quadrivalent subunit influenza vaccine, Hui Er Kang Xin, has been listed in the national insurance directory with a price range of 326.5 to 359 yuan per dose [8] Vaccination Rates - The average vaccination rate for influenza vaccines in China has remained below 4% from 2020 to 2023, with higher rates among children (12%) and lower rates among the elderly (below 5%) [10]

Group 1 - A-share companies have announced over 800 mid-term cash dividend plans, setting a historical record, with total cash dividends exceeding 639 billion yuan and a cash dividend ratio of 21.36% of total net profits [1] - The banking sector leads in dividend scale, with an expected mid-term cash dividend of 237.54 billion yuan in 2025, followed by industries such as oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, non-bank financials, coal, and transportation [1] Group 2 - Major companies like China Mobile and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have cash dividends exceeding 50 billion yuan, while over 20 companies, including Chang'an Automobile and Hengli Petrochemical, are initiating mid-term dividends for the first time [3] - In terms of cash dividend ratios, companies like Shuoshi Biology and Yisheng Shares have exceptionally high ratios, with Shuoshi Biology proposing a cash dividend of 34 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 7142.28% [3] - Institutional investors show a clear preference for high dividend yields, with Dongfang Yuhong leading at a yield of 7.87%, and several other companies also exceeding 5% [3][4] Group 3 - Among stocks with dividend yields over 2%, six companies, including Bingchuan Network and Jinneng Technology, reported net profit growth exceeding 50% in the first half of the year [4] - Bingchuan Network achieved a net profit of 336 million yuan, marking a turnaround, with a mid-term dividend yield of 2.3% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hualan Biological's revenue increased by 68.77% in the first half of 2025, despite a challenging environment for the vaccine industry, primarily driven by significant sales of rabies vaccines and a doubling of flu vaccine revenue [1][2][3]. Revenue Performance - Hualan Biological achieved a revenue of 59.96 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 68.77% [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 20.80 million yuan, a decrease of 17.71% compared to the previous year [1]. - The flu vaccine revenue grew by 132.94%, contributing approximately 40% to the total revenue [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The domestic vaccine industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period due to price wars, particularly in the HPV vaccine segment, which has led to significant revenue declines for several companies [2]. - Hualan Biological's proactive sales efforts and increased market promotion have resulted in a notable rise in sales, especially for rabies vaccines [1][3]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - Sales expenses increased by 30.78% to 28.99 million yuan, reflecting the company's efforts to enhance market penetration and awareness [4]. - Hualan Biological's sales network covers over 30 provincial regions and more than 2,500 disease control centers, achieving a coverage rate of over 70% [4]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is focusing on expanding its product pipeline, with ongoing clinical trials for new vaccines, including a freeze-dried Hib vaccine and mRNA vaccines for flu and RSV [5]. - Hualan Biological aims to increase the sales revenue and market share of its rabies vaccine while enhancing public awareness of flu vaccination [5].

Group 1 - Hualan Vaccine (301207.SZ) reported its semi-annual results for 2025, revealing that as of August 27, 2025, 13 institutional investors held a total of 520 million shares, accounting for 86.46% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Hualan Biological Engineering Co., Ltd., CYBER CREATOR LIMITED, and several others, with their combined holding ratio increasing by 0.11 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, one fund, Southern CSI 1000 ETF, increased its holdings, while two funds, including China Merchants National Biomedicine Index A and Tianhong National Biomedicine ETF, reduced their holdings slightly [2] - Four new public funds were disclosed compared to the previous quarter, including Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF and several others [2] - On the foreign investment side, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the only foreign fund to increase its holdings slightly [2]