Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for price increases in copper due to supply disruptions and tariff impacts, suggesting that recent price pullbacks may present good buying opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, amid renewed tariff concerns between China and the US, recommending an increased allocation to gold [5] - The report notes significant price increases in cobalt intermediate products, forecasting continued price growth in 2026-2027 due to supply-demand imbalances [7] - The report discusses the tightening supply of rare earths due to new export controls, which may lead to price increases in the domestic market [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7554.83, with a 52-week high of 7783.14 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper rose by 0.76%, aluminum by 2.20%, zinc by 0.95%, and lead by 1.44%. Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up by 3.80% and silver by 1.44% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes included an increase of 14,579 tons in copper, a decrease of 4,602 tons in aluminum, and an increase of 17,175 tons in lead [30]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government has issued conditions for obtaining and distributing cobalt export quotas, effective from October 16, 2025 [1][2] - The DRC is expected to contribute 76% of global cobalt production in 2024, with a projected reduction in export supply over the next two years [10][11] - The report highlights potential supply shortages in the cobalt market due to various companies facing operational challenges [8][10] Summary by Sections Export Quota Details - The basic export quotas for cobalt in 2025 are set at 3,625 tons for October, and 7,250 tons for both November and December [2] - Quotas are allocated based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, with specific exclusions for certain companies [2][3] Company-Specific Quotas - Key companies and their basic export quotas for Q4 2025 include: - Luoyang Molybdenum: 6,650 tons - Glencore: 3,925 tons - Eurasian Resources: 2,125 tons - Gecamines: 1,475 tons [6][16] - The 2026 quotas for these companies are projected to be significantly higher, indicating a potential increase in production capacity [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a supply gap of approximately 25,500 tons in 2027, driven by increasing global demand for cobalt, particularly in electric vehicles [12][13] - The DRC's export supply is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 12,340 tons over the next two years [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as: - Luoyang Molybdenum, which will hold a significant share of the DRC's export quotas - Huayou Cobalt, with substantial production capacity in Indonesia - Other companies like Likin Resources and Greeenmei, which are expanding their nickel and cobalt production capabilities [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes and further management of the rare earth industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of trade tariff concerns on gold's safe-haven demand, while silver prices are accelerating due to spot market shortages and warehouse squeezes [7]. - The rare earth industry is seeing enhanced management policies, ensuring the strategic security of China's rare earth industry [7]. - The cobalt market is expected to experience upward price pressure due to the announced export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. Industry Overview - **Industrial Metals**: The report notes that trade tariff concerns are increasing gold's safe-haven demand, with silver prices rising due to market shortages. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a decrease in holdings by 2.3 tons to 1013.44 tons, while iShares Silver ETF increased by 35.28 tons to 15443.76 tons [7]. - **Rare Earths**: Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials are expected to enhance the management of the industry, ensuring strategic security [7]. - **Cobalt**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy is likely to support cobalt prices, with the average price of electrolytic cobalt rising by 4.8% to 349,500 CNY/ton [9]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Shandong Gold, as well as silver companies like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources [2]. - For cobalt, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising cobalt prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced a significant decline at the beginning of trading on October 10, with multiple companies in these sectors reporting substantial drops in their stock prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Sector - Xiaocheng Technology saw a decline of over 7%, trading at 28.13 [2] - Western Gold fell by over 6%, with a current price of 30.65 [2] - Other notable declines include Chifeng Gold down by 5.30% at 30.40, Shandong Gold down by 4.09% at 41.49, and Hunan Gold down by 3.81% at 22.73 [2][3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metal Sector - Companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt all experienced declines, indicating a broader downturn in the non-ferrous metal market [1]. - Specific declines include Huayou Cobalt down by 5.68% at 66.30, Tengyuan Cobalt down by 5.37% at 76.78, and Tianqi Lithium down by 2.79% at 49.90 [3].

Group 1 - The gold and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced a significant decline on October 10, with many companies in these sectors reporting losses [1] - Notable declines in the gold sector included Xiaocheng Technology down 7.13% to 28.13, Western Gold down 6.81% to 30.65, and Chifeng Gold down 5.30% to 30.40 [2] - In the non-ferrous metal sector, companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Tianqi Lithium also saw collective declines [3] Group 2 - The overall market sentiment for gold and related companies appears negative, as multiple firms reported losses exceeding 4% [2][3] - The decline in stock prices indicates potential challenges within the gold and non-ferrous metal industries, reflecting broader market trends [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry experienced a significant increase in stock price and trading volume, indicating strong market interest and activity in the company's shares [1][2]. Financing Summary - On October 9, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry had a financing buy-in amount of 218 million yuan, with a net financing buy of 47.11 million yuan after accounting for repayments [1]. - The total financing balance reached 556 million yuan, representing 2.33% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile of the past year, indicating a high level of financing activity [1]. - In terms of securities lending, the company had a repayment of 10,200 shares and a sell amount of 900 shares, with a total lending balance of 97.37 million yuan, which is below the 30th percentile of the past year, indicating low lending activity [1]. Company Overview - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, established on March 26, 2004, and listed on March 17, 2022, is located in Jiangxi Province and specializes in various sectors including hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, non-ferrous metal smelting, and recycling of used batteries [2]. - The company's revenue composition is primarily from cobalt products (47.56%) and copper products (44.39%), with other products accounting for 8.05% [2]. - As of September 19, the number of shareholders decreased by 3.18% to 24,500, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 74.97% to 11,801 shares [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry reported a revenue of 3.532 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 469 million yuan, up by 9.94% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry has distributed a total of 1.649 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.147 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited has exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders of Tengyuan Cobalt Industry [3].

证券代码：301219 证券简称：腾远钴业 公告编号：2025-043 赣州腾远钴业新材料股份有限公司 2025 年半年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或重大遗漏。 赣州腾远钴业新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）于 2025 年 5 月 13 日召开 2024 年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于 2024 年度利润分配 的预案及 2025 年中期分红规划的议案》，同意授权董事会在符合利润分配的条件 下制定 2025 年度中期分红方案。公司于 2025 年 8 月 15 日召开了第四届董事会 第二次会议，审议通过了《关于公司 2025 年中期分红方案的议案》，现将权益分 派事宜公告如下： 一、股东大会审议通过利润分配预案情况 1、公司 2025 年中期利润分配预案为：以实施权益分派股权登记日登记的总 股本 294,717,182 股扣除回购专用证券账户 1,424,747 股后的 293,292,435 股为 基数，向全体股东实施每 10 股派发现金红利 10.00 元（含税），合计派发现金股 利人民币 293,292,435 ...

Core Insights - Tengyuan Cobalt's stock price increased by 5.04% on October 9, reaching 79.96 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.05 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 4.63%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 23.566 billion CNY. The stock has risen for three consecutive days, accumulating a total increase of 13.94% during this period [1] Company Overview - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry Co., Ltd. is located in Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province, and was established on March 26, 2004. The company went public on March 17, 2022. Its main business includes the production and sales of hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, non-ferrous metal smelting, basic chemical raw materials manufacturing, recycling of used power batteries for electric vehicles, and the production and sales of various building materials [1] - The revenue composition of Tengyuan Cobalt is as follows: cobalt products account for 47.56%, copper products for 44.39%, and other products for 8.05% [1] Fund Holdings - Silver Hua Fund has a significant holding in Tengyuan Cobalt, specifically through the Silver Hua Growth Mixed Fund (161838), which increased its holdings by 24,000 shares in the second quarter, bringing the total to 293,800 shares, representing 5.87% of the fund's net value. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 1.1284 million CNY, with a total floating profit of 2.7357 million CNY during the three-day increase [2] - The Silver Hua Growth Mixed Fund (161838) was established on August 7, 2020, with a current scale of 266 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 27.73%, ranking 3,773 out of 8,238 in its category, while the one-year return is 27.67%, ranking 3,337 out of 8,082. Since its inception, the fund has experienced a loss of 17.27% [2] Fund Management - The fund managers of Silver Hua Growth Mixed Fund are Liu Hui and Wang Ligang. Liu Hui has a tenure of 8 years and 211 days, managing assets totaling 3.159 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 136.39% and the worst being -17.27% [3] - Wang Ligang has a tenure of 5 years and 285 days, managing assets totaling 3.281 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 34.87% and the worst also being -17.27% [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the dynamics of precious metals (gold, silver) and industrial metals (copper, cobalt) in the context of recent market changes and geopolitical factors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The new Japanese Prime Minister's loose monetary policy contrasts with market expectations, alleviating the strength of the dollar and stimulating precious metal trading. This has led to increased expectations of currency devaluation globally, positively impacting commodity prices [1][4]. - **Copper Price Drivers**: Changes in the Central African copper mining assets and the Lobiito Corridor plan enhance companies like Glencore's pricing power. The reduction in output from Grasberg exacerbates supply tightness, driving copper prices upward [1][5]. - **Future Demand for Copper**: By 2030, investments in the power grid in China and the U.S. are expected to significantly boost industrial metal demand. Even without considering monetary easing, the trends of supply tightening and demand expansion indicate a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][6]. - **Valuation of Domestic Mining Companies**: Domestic mining companies are maturing in their valuation systems and are currently undervalued compared to international peers. They exhibit leading advantages in capital expenditure, resource capture, and cost reduction, positioning them favorably for future growth [1][7][8]. - **Precious Metals Performance**: From October 1 to 8, 2023, London spot gold and silver prices rose by 4.62% and 4.84%, respectively, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and Japan's monetary policy [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Cobalt Market Dynamics**: The cobalt price in China has surged to over 340,000 yuan per ton due to quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are insufficient to meet global supply and demand, leading to a bullish sentiment in the market [2][14]. - **Impact of U.S. Tech Stocks on Gold**: Poor performance of U.S. tech stocks may increase the allocation of gold in personal asset portfolios. Notably, Oracle's cloud business gross margin fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI profitability [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly by China, support gold prices. As of September, China's reserves reached 2,303.5 tons, although monthly purchases have shown a slight decline [15]. - **Stock Recommendations**: The call recommends several stocks in the precious metals and cobalt sectors, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are expected to benefit from current market conditions [16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between monetary policy, market dynamics, and investment opportunities in the precious and industrial metals sectors.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly cobalt and nickel concepts, with several companies reaching their daily limit up [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with seven other departments, has issued a "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" [1] - The plan sets a target for the non-ferrous metal industry to achieve an average annual value-added growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026, with a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [1][2] Group 2 - The plan emphasizes the development of domestic resources for copper, aluminum, and lithium, with a target of exceeding 20 million tons in recycled metal production [2] - It proposes a new round of exploration strategies to enhance resource investigation for copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin, aiming to generate new exploration results [2] - The document also aims to optimize the competitive landscape in oversupplied sectors such as alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate, suggesting a focus on the profit elasticity of related sector companies [2]