Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Tengyuan Cobalt Industry has experienced a significant decline in its stock price since its IPO, currently trading at 51.72 yuan, down 2.12%, and is in a state of breaking its initial offering price [1] - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board on March 17, 2022, with an initial public offering (IPO) price of 173.98 yuan per share and a total of 31.4869 million shares issued [1] - The company raised a total of 5.478 billion yuan from its IPO, with a net amount of 5.204 billion yuan after deducting issuance costs, which was 3.006 billion yuan more than the originally planned fundraising of 2.198 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The company announced a cash dividend of 12.00 yuan per 10 shares for the year 2022, totaling 272.05 million yuan, along with a capital reserve distribution of 3 additional shares for every 10 shares held, increasing the total share capital to 294,717,182 shares [2] - The previous year's dividend distribution included a cash payout of 39.9 yuan per 10 shares and a capital reserve increase of 8 shares for every 10 shares held [2]

一、四氧化三钴相关概述 1、定义 四氧化三钴，化学式为Co3O4，外观为灰黑色或黑色粉末，其是一种混合价态化合物，同时含有二价钴 和三价钴，四氧化三钴理论含钴量为73.43%，含氧量为26.57%，四氧化三钴具有尖晶石结构。 2、制备方法 内容概要：四氧化三钴，化学式为Co3O4，外观为灰黑色或黑色粉末，其是一种混合价态化合物，同时 含有二价钴和三价钴，四氧化三钴理论含钴量为73.43%，含氧量为26.57%，四氧化三钴具有尖晶石结 构。四氧化三钴作为生产钴酸锂最重要的原料之一，其品质好坏、成本的高低很大程度上影响甚至决定 了钴酸锂的产品品质及成本。钴酸锂是最早实现商业化应用的锂离子电池正极材料，随着其应用技术在 几十年的发展中不断的完善和提高，也被认为是当下最成熟的锂离子电池正极材料。钴酸锂电池因其体 积能量密度高、压实密度优异等特性，长期广泛应用于中高端消费电子领域。2022年国内市场对手机等 3C数码终端产品需求减弱，作为数码钴酸锂电池原材料的四氧化三钴需求也随着下滑。但随着经济稳 步发展，消费电子等下游领域需求逐渐回暖，四氧化三钴需求量也恢复增长态势，2024年中国四氧化三 钴表观需求量为9.1万吨， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to weaken, with significant declines in stock prices [1] - Precision Instrument Co., Ltd. (002295) hit the daily limit down [1] - Northern Copper Industry (000737) fell over 7% [1] Group 2 - Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259) and Feinan Resources (301500) both dropped over 5% [1] - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry (301219) and Tibet Mining (000762) also experienced declines [1]

有色金属板块盘初下挫，精艺股份（002295）跌超7%，北方铜业（000737）、飞南资源（301500）跌 超5%，腾远钴业（301219）、华钰矿业（601020）、华锡有色（600301）纷纷下挫。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact cobalt prices positively, as it aims to address the oversupply in the market and may lead to a supply shortage, thus increasing prices [1][2][4]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - Cobalt is a critical metal for energy transition, widely used in battery manufacturing and alloys, with DRC being the main global supplier [2]. - Prior to the export ban, cobalt prices had dropped significantly, with a reported price of $11.26 per pound in 2024, down 25.48% year-on-year [2]. - Following the initial export ban in February, cobalt prices peaked at 250,000 yuan/ton but later fell to 230,000 yuan/ton due to high historical inventory levels and unclear future policies [2]. Price Movements - After the announcement of the extended export ban, cobalt prices showed a notable increase, with "Longjiang 1 cobalt" rising by 22,000 yuan/ton, reaching a price range of 244,000 to 268,000 yuan/ton [3]. Impact on Companies - Companies primarily dealing with cobalt, such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd., and Ganzhou Tengyuan Cobalt Industry New Materials Co., Ltd., saw their stock prices rise significantly following the ban announcement [4]. - The DRC's export ban is expected to exacerbate raw material shortages in major consuming countries like China, with potential supply reductions exceeding 100,000 metal tons [4][5]. Company Responses - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in cobalt production and sales for 2024, with production up 105.61% to 114,200 tons and sales up 266.23% to 108,900 tons [6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum operates two major mines in DRC, benefiting directly from the price rebound due to the export ban [7]. - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry indicated that they have sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the export ban on their operations, and they maintain good relationships with suppliers to ensure raw material availability [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Tengyuan Cobalt Industry has sufficient safety stock to mitigate the impact of the extended cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ensuring normal production operations in the short term [1] - The company indicated that it can purchase a certain amount of cobalt raw materials through traders, suggesting that the pressure on raw materials is not particularly significant [1] - Secondary resources are an important part of the company's strategic development, and it has established good and close channel cooperation to secure a certain share as a supplement [1] Group 2 - The company will closely monitor the developments of the situation and prepare accordingly [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cobalt prices are experiencing significant volatility, with a recent drop of 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan per ton, influenced by extended export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and high inventory pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The DRC, which accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, has extended its export ban, leading to short-term supply constraints and price fluctuations in the cobalt market [3][4]. - The global cobalt market is expected to shift from a surplus of 50,000 tons in 2025 to a shortage of 78,000 tons due to the DRC's export restrictions [4]. - Cobalt is primarily a byproduct of copper mining, and the DRC's policies may prompt a reevaluation of its business environment, potentially increasing Indonesia's market share [3][4]. Group 2: Production and Supply Chain - According to USGS data, global cobalt production is projected to reach 290,000 tons in 2024, with the DRC producing 220,000 tons, a 25% increase year-on-year [4]. - Chinese imports of cobalt intermediate products from the DRC have slightly decreased, but supply risks are anticipated to rise in the latter half of the year due to the DRC's export limitations [6]. - The current price of cobalt has reached the cost line for domestic cobalt salt manufacturers, and a drop below 240,000 yuan per ton could trigger production cuts among high-cost mining companies [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The profitability within the cobalt supply chain is showing divergence, with upstream producers holding back on sales while downstream sectors remain cautious [5][7]. - Battery manufacturers are increasingly reluctant to absorb rising costs, leading to stable prices in the lithium cobalt oxide market despite stronger cost support [7]. - Companies like Huaneng Cobalt and Tianyuan Cobalt have reported fluctuating profits, with Huaneng Cobalt's net profit in Q1 2025 increasing by 194% year-on-year, while Tianyuan Cobalt's profit has shown a decline in previous years [7][8].

Group 1 - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to significant price volatility, with cobalt prices experiencing a sharp drop of 6,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan per ton on June 24 [1][2] - The DRC's export ban, initially imposed for four months on February 24, has now been extended to seven months, causing a consensus in the industry that this will only result in temporary supply constraints [1][2] - The DRC accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, with a projected output of 220,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [2][3] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with high inventory levels leading to price corrections, as cobalt prices fell to 230,000 yuan per ton due to domestic producers offloading stock [2][4] - The extension of the export ban is expected to create upward pressure on cobalt prices, potentially leading to a supply shortage in the cobalt industry, with predictions of a shift from a surplus of 50,000 tons to a shortage of 78,000 tons by 2025 [3][4] - The upstream sector is showing reluctance to sell, while the downstream sector remains cautious, with cobalt hydroxide imports from the DRC only slightly declining by 6.8% [4][5] Group 3 - The lithium cobalt oxide market is currently stable, with companies adopting a "just-in-time" purchasing strategy due to insufficient demand, despite rising costs [6] - The shift towards lithium iron phosphate batteries is accelerating, with projections indicating that they will account for 72% of installed capacity by 2024, which may limit cobalt demand growth [6] - Companies like Huanray Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt have shown mixed financial performance, with Huanray Cobalt's net profit declining significantly in recent years, while Huayou Cobalt reported a substantial increase in net profit in early 2025 [6]